411 MMA Fact or Fiction 07.30.08: Arlovski a Bigger Threat to Emelianenko Than Sylvia, 'The Spider' Would be Favored Against Forrest Griffin, and MORE!

Posted by Bren Oliver on 07.30.2008

Should DREAM have held off on conducting the Lightweight Grand Prix Final until Eddie Alvarez was healthy? Is there a Middleweight in EliteXC who can beat Robbie Lawler? Was "Affliction: Banned" successful even though it lost money? Did "Saturday Night Fights" improve since their first broadcast? Read ahead as 411Mania icon Larry Csonka mixes it up with NoKaut's Randy Harrison over these topics and more in this week's "Fact or Fiction"!

It's been awhile since we had a "special guest" participate in "Fact or Fiction" - and no, I'm not referring to the sort of special many of you readers labeled my 411Mania compadre Wendell Mitchell with based on his feelings of who had the more impressive win on July 19th between Fedor Emelianenko and Anderson Silva! I'm talking about a "special" free of short buses, heavy on MMA insight and opinion from a non-411 source.

You may know him as the head-honcho on NoKaut or as the man who used to bring you the always-excellent "Five Rounds of News" on Fridays here at 411Mania MMA. We know him as the prodigal son returning. It is with great pleasure I introduce one-half of today's FoF column, Randy Harrison! Joining young Randall, as would only be appropriate, is his proverbial proud papa - Larry Csonka. Csonka is a familiar name around these parts (and around a few ladies' parts as well - wakka wakka). Larry can be found recapping events, like last weekend's "Saturday Night Fights", handling all-things-wrestling , and basically keeping this website full of fresh content and far from falling apart. Now that the formalities are out of the way, let's get into this week's six subjects, shall we?

Fellow columnists...are you ready? Then, America, with an enlarged heart and an empty skull, I say unto you the words of my Uncle...


ALLEZ FACT OR FICTION!!!!!!!


1. DREAM should have waited until Eddie Alvarez was healthy before conducting the Lightweight Grand Prix Final.


Randy Harrison: FICTION. The entire purpose of the tournament structure in Japan is to have the semi-finals and finals on the same night. If they had advertised the semi-finals and finals and then not delivered due to Alvarez's injury, it would have been a disaster. As it is, the Lightweight Grand Prix has already had enough controversy with the Aoki/Calvancante debacle and how that ended up pushing the tournament off-schedule. The injury to Alvarez is the reason why they have the alternate match and while it was disappointing to not get to see Alvarez/Aoki, this does open a whole new world of possibilities in the Lightweight division for DREAM to put on some great fights. Aoki/Alvarez, Hansen/Aoki III, and Hansen/Alvarez II could all be in the offing and that's a VERY good thing. As for the actual final itself, I give full marks to Hansen for being able to finish Gill quickly in the alternate bout, then pull the major upset on Aoki, and he's a very deserving champion. Alvarez's injury was disappointing, but not as disappointing as it would have been to have to wait for yet another event to crown a champion.


Larry Csonka: FACT. I really thought hard about this one, because it is a difficult question. I understand that there is a reason for the alternate bouts in these Grand Prix tournaments, and in the lower rounds I am fully behind them being used for replacements. But just not for the finals of the Grand Prix. Eddie Alvarez was dominating, and the guy that won the Grand Prix, Joachim Hansen, is a fine fighter. But I do not think a guy that lost to the man that made it to the finals should get to replace him and get the shot to win. Semifinals, sure I can see this, but not the finals. The finals of the Grand Prix are supposed to crown the BEST fighter and I am sorry to say that Joachim Hansen was NOT the best fighter. No offense.


SCORE: 0 for 1. I find it difficult to firmly plant my feet on either side of this fence. You both make excellent points. To be honest, while I felt a bit robbed in not getting to see Aoki vs. Alvarez for the LWGP Championship, I'm not sure there was any other way DREAM could have handled the situation. Alvarez's injury turned things into a proverbial session of "PacMan" - a game you can't win. Had they suspended the final bout until DREAM 6, they would have upset a number of fans in attendance who specifically wanted to see local superstar Shinya Aoki in the finals, plus broken from the historical format of Japanese tournaments in a land where tradition means everything. They also would have been assuming Aoki and Alvarez were both going to be available in late September. The alternative, which DREAM officials ultimately chose to go with, opened them up to criticism regardless of who won the final. Critics would have pointed out the win for Aoki had come against a man who lost earlier in the Grand Prix and faced inferior competition to earn his slot in the finals. And, as it went down, you have people who think Hansen is a paper champion because of his aforementioned road to the title.


2. Andrei Arlovski, who is scheduled to be Fedor's next opponent, poses more of a threat to Emelianenko than Tim Sylvia did.


Randy Harrison: FICTION. While they're completely different fighters, it's a fact that Sylvia beat Arlovski twice and held the UFC Heavyweight Title for longer. They're essentially the same style of fighter in that they are very good standing and not as good when the fight hits the mat. Granted, Arlovski beat Sylvia with a heel hook, but he hasn't shown any technical mastery or superb submission defense in his fights because he hasn't really had to. Arlovski is quicker than Sylvia is, but Fedor has shown that he can handle speed in the past, countering it with his own quickness. I think that Fedor wouldn't rush Arlovski the same way he did Sylvia, but he would take his time to get the fight to the ground and take over on the mat. I know it's seemingly a cliche to think that Fedor would win every fight by armbar, but in this instance I'd see it being the actual finish.


Larry Csonka: FACT. I truly think that he does. TIM-MAH is a big dude, and yes a former champion, but the fact is that overall he isn't a great fighter. Hell, YUGI NAGATA lasted longer against FEDOR that TIM-MAH! Arlovski has shown that he is a beast and put on one hell of a performance at the PPV and proved that he is still a top 10 Heavyweight. I think that FEDOR will likely win the bout when they meet, unless the Russians change their mind, but Arlovski brings too much to the table to be defeated so quickly.


SCORE: 0 for 2. I recently saw a picture of Emelianenko armbarring the Sistine Chapel. At this point in time, I'm inclined to believe it was not a Photoshopped. On top of Fedor's remarkable submission skills, he's proven he hits extremely hard even if the lack of knockouts on his record don't reflect it. Arlovski has been KO'd multiple times in his career, whereas Emelianenko has only been staggered in competition and never had his lights put completely out. "The Pitbull" may have a larger tool-set from which to throw punches, kicks, and knees, but Emelianenko comes to work driving a bulldozer and toting a jackhammer. The only reason I might have answered the above statement was a "FACT" has to do with my feelings it might take the stoic Russian thirty-seven seconds to beat Arlovski instead of the thirty-six ticks it took to finish off Sylvia.


3. Though it may have ultimately lost money, "Affliction: Banned" should still be considered a major success.


Randy Harrison: FACT. There are some things that money can't buy, and making a big splash in the MMA universe is something that is priceless. The PPV buyrate is expected to be above what Affliction was hoping for and while the crowd might not have been the biggest when you factor in the tickets that Affliction purchased themselves, the place was electric and the crowd loved the entire night of fights. There was minimal booing and the people were hugely into great ground action, as well as fighters like Vitor Belfort and Andrei Arlovski. The loudest roars of the night were easily for Fedor Emelianenko, which shows that it was indeed a hardcore fight fan that made it to the show. I wouldn't call the show an unqualified success merely because of the lost money and the tickets purchased by Affliction, but in terms of getting people's attention and showing that they are going to put on quality fights with the highest level of talent available, I would say that Affliction hit themselves a home run.


Larry Csonka: FICTION. I cannot say major because they DID lose a LOT of money. Let's check some stuff out:

They spent a reported $3,321,000 on payroll.

They made $2,085,510 on the gate.

The PPV numbers won't be in for a while, but are rumored between 50,000 and 100,000. Let's say 75,000 for the sake of argument. WWE gets roughly a half cut of PPV cost, I doubt Affliction will be getting that kind of deal, but for the sake of argument, let's say they made $20 per PPV buy. That is a $1,500,000 take on PPV buys, estimated of course.

That's a profit of $264,510.

We don't know what they made on merchandizing.

Estimates are saying that they will lose upwards of $3,000,000 total on the show, after we figure in advertising, building cost and all of the other stuff to pay for the event.

While I appreciate that they went balls to the wall for the show and tried to make it a success, NO COMPANY will be a major success until they have a viable TV deal and Affliction doesn't have that. Sure it was a quality show, but there is no way that they can continue to hemorrhage money at this rate; they will not survive.


SCORE: 0 for 3. 0% so far? It seems like only yesterday you two were going six-for-six on "Fact or Fiction" while drinking milkshakes, shooting hoops, coding 411Mania HTML, and jamming out to Queen's "You're My Best Friend".


---SWITCH!!!---


4. Anderson Silva would be favored, and rightfully so, were he scheduled to face Forrest Griffin in a UFC Light Heavyweight Championship bout.


Larry Csonka: FACT. I think so. Don't get me wrong, Forrest Griffin had evolved into a very good fighter. He went into his last two fights and beat TWO Top 10 Light Heavyweights and win the title. And he deserves all the praise that he has received for that; I would never take it away from him. But Anderson Silva just is NOT human. He is a man beast. Others and myself consider the man the best pound for pound fighter in the world for a reason. He has won his last EIGHT fights in a row, including two wins over Rich Franklin (DESTROYING him both times) and he submitted Dan Henderson in the second round. Anderson Silva is just too well rounded as a fighter for Forrest Griffin at this time, and I think he would defeat him and should be favored if the bout were to take place.


Randy Harrison: FACT. Anderson Silva would be favored against anyone from the 185 or 205-pound classes right now, the same way that Chuck Liddell was favored against everyone during the run he went on a couple of years ago. Silva looked VERY solid at 205 in his fight against James Irvin, probably even better than he looked at similar weights fighting in PRIDE. He's got it all and he would be easily considered a favorite against anyone, not even counting the fact that Griffin gets very little respect amongst the MMA hardcores. In a fight against someone like Liddell or Wanderlei Silva, fighters who fans have a lot more respect for, it would be a lot closer, but I would suspect that against Griffin, "The Spider" would be a HUGE favorite.


SCORE: 1 for 4. I agree. Anderson's physique allows him to fight at 205 pounds without losing a step. Forrest's suspect chin cannot stand up to Silva's precision or power, and even if it did, "The Spider" would tag him frequently enough to tear up the scar-Kleenex on his face and potentially force a cut-based stoppage.


5. Last weekend's EliteXC/CBS broadcast was a vast improvement over the first offering of "Saturday Night Fights".


Larry Csonka: FACT. I said in my Monday "My Take On MMA" Column that I felt that the second episode of Elite XC on CBS was WAY better than the first and I still stand by that statement. There was no controversy this time around, we got good to great fights, new champions were crowned and they ended on time thanks to adding an hour on Showtime. Shields looked great winning the Welterweight Title, Lawler won the big rematch against Smith and ended any controversy from the first bout and we in my opinion we now have a huge bout in the making with Gina vs. CYBORG. So while the ratings did not reflect the improvement, I agree that the second episode of Elite XC on CBS was a vast improvement over their first offering.


Randy Harrison: FACT. The show ran much smoother, had a much better pace and there was the distinct lack of crappy finishes that sent the internet MMA community into a tailspin after the first show. Cris Cyborg announcer her arrival in the United States with a dominating performance over Shayna Baszler, Jake Shields completely dominated Nick Thompson and Nick Diaz brought the house down by dissecting Thomas Denny in front of his hometown fans. The main event between Robbie Lawler and Scott Smith was another action-packed, back-and-forth affair like their first fight and they delivered a great match. While the ratings may not bear it out, the fights were better and the show was better, I liked this version of the show better than the first, and I hope that the third show ends up being the same quality.


SCORE: 2 for 5. The third show will be very interesting to watch...and not just because of the promising potential bouts on the card. "Saturday Night Fights" clearly improved from a production standpoint between their debut and last week, and the event in October is slated to feature both of EliteXC's mainstream attractions (Slice/Carano), so the third show should (in theory) be the most complete of the EliteXC/CBS events. That being said, will the ratings reflect the additional starpower and more-professional feel of the broadcast by matching or surpassing the first "Saturday Night Fights"? Or, will they remain closer to - perhaps dip even lower than - the numbers "Unfinished Business" drew now that the curiousity factor of MMA on network television has worn off some?


6. Robbie Lawler will remain EliteXC's Middleweight Champion through the duration of his contract with the organization.


Larry Csonka: FACT. I am glad this isn't "Buy or Sell" because I'd be broke at the end of this column. I have to go "fact" for this reason. The only viable contenders right now are Joey Villasenor and Rua. Lawler already destroyed Rua, and, while anything can happen in the fight, Rua looked awesome his last time out. I think Lawler wins the rematch. Joey Villasenor also has looked good as of late, but I don't think he has the game to take out Lawler. Also, MMAth says Lawler wins because Rua beat Joey Villasenor. Kidding. There is always the outside chance that Frank Shamrock can get into the picture. While Shamrock is a great showman and can sell a fight, I don't know if he possesses the skills anymore to get the job done. Sure he beat Baroni, but he didn't exactly look great against Renzo Gracie and Cung Le broke him - literally. So, unless Lawler continues to have cut issues or someone steps up their game big time, he holds onto the title.


Randy Harrison: FICTION. Lawler is good, but Middleweight is a stacked division in EliteXC/Strikeforce. After this fight with Smith, Lawler can look at facing off against people like Joe Villasenor and Ninja Rua from EliteXC and possibly guys like Frank Shamrock and Cung Le from Strikeforce. While I think that the Villasenor and Shamrock fights would be Lawler's, the Rua and Le fights would be ones that I could easily see him losing. Rua looked phenomenal in his last fight, possibly the best I've seen him, and Le was...well Le was Le in his fight with Shamrock and he's buzz-sawed his way through everyone so far. Lawler likes to stand and bang and that would get him into trouble with Le. I think that Lawler is going to have a good reign and probably defend the title once more, but I don't see him holding onto it until his contract runs out because he's good, not great.


SCORE: 2 for 6. I get the feeling EliteXC and Strikeforce aren't as chummy as they once were now that one is associated with CBS and the other with NBC. In fact, the last Strikeforce event featuring Melendez vs. Thomson was broadcast on HDNet and not Showtime (as they had been in the past). I'm not sure how many fights Lawler has left on his contract, but I don't see Rua or Villasenor beating him based on their comparable styles and "Ruthless" Robbie's stand-up prowess. "Ninja" Rua may have looked impressive in his last bout, but he was also fighting a guy who had competed against chumps and had been associated with fixing a number of his fights. And, it should also be said that beyond separating Murilo from consciousness last Fall, Robbie Lawler also knocked out Villasenor in twenty-two seconds when PRIDE ventured to Vegas in 2006. Outside of EliteXC bringing in a Middleweight from DREAM once the Grand Prix concludes, or perhaps Vitor Belfort or Matt Lindland breaking from Affliction to fight for EliteXC, I have a hard time visualizing any fighter on their roster who I'd consider favoring over Lawler in a title bout.


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Join us next week when two more participants discuss more action from "Saturday Night Fights, James Irvin's failed drug test, and a few other issues lingering out there in the land o' MMA ...