411MMA Fact or Fiction 08.13.08: Penn Doesn't Deserve Welterweight Title Shot, Affliction Should Avoid Signing Tito Ortiz, Florian is the #1 Lightweight Contender and More!

Posted by Bren Oliver on 08.13.2008

Will "Rampage" spend more than six months in jail based on the most recent developments in his case? Should Brock Lesnar be favored against the bulk of the UFC's Heavyweights? Would Carlos Condit only be "above average" if he fought in the Octagon? 411Mania MMA's Scott Kuczkowski and Jeremy Lambert discuss these topics and more in this week's FoF extravaganza!

Wednesday has arrived and it's time once again for another edition of your favorite 411Mania MMA column starting with "Fact" and ending with "Fiction"! UFC 87 is still fresh on the minds of many - Brock Lesnar's brute strength and ground control, Ken Florian doing his best Lyoto Machida impression against Huerta, Jon Fitch's display of heart and tenacity, and, of course, Georges St. Pierre once again proving why he is mentioned as perhaps the best pound-for-pound Mixed Martial Artist in the sport. Still, while the build for UFC 87 seemed to imply the PPV would be packed with pyrotechnics, the triumvirate of headlining fights resulting in unanimous decisions had some people wishing Zuffa had hired a production unit from China to digitally add a few fireworks to the in-ring action. After all, who doesn't like to see a fight finished?

This week, 411Mania's Jeremy Lambert ("Cardio Freak MMA News Report") and Scott Kuczkowski ("The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly) are breaking down a few items related to UFC 87, as well as a couple other items peeking the curiousity of quite a few folks. Also, if you're interested in checking out some pictures of a little post-87 BBQ at Roger Huerta's house (including images of a certain "That 70s Show" star in attendance at the intimate gathering), head on over CombatLifestyle and check out the work of Tracy Lee...who I also happened to interview this past week. That being said, it's time to transition from the curves of Ms. Lee to this week's sexy six "Fact or Fiction" topics.

Fellow columnists...are you ready? Then, America, with an enlarged heart and an empty skull, I say unto you the words of my Uncle...


ALLEZ FACT OR FICTION!!!!!!!


1. You expect Quinton Jackson to spend more than six months behind bars based on his felony charges in California and the recent news one of his victims had a miscarriage.


Jeremy Lambert: FICTION. You can throw the news about the miscarriage out the window because California can't legally charge him with any type of manslaughter since they don't consider fetuses people. The worst thing he'll face there is a civil case where, worst case scenario, he'll pay the woman for damages. How you put a price on losing a future child is beyond me but that's thankfully something I don't have to determine.

The only way this turns ugly for Jackson is if the judge decides to make an example out of his for being a cage fighter and taking up "human cock fighting". I'd like to think that the California judges don't look down on the sport and are well educated but I'm not that naive either. As long as Jackson pleads guilty, minds his manners in court, shows remorse, and says that it won't happen again, then he'll probably get off with some lost cash and probation.


Scott Kuczkowski: FICTION. We all know about what happened to Rampage, so I'm not going to try and rehash everything. Dana White said the problems weren't mental, but because he didn't sleep or eat for days and was surviving on energy drinks to the point that he had delirium. Now, I'm not a doctor, but doing those things makes me think he has some mental issues. Be that as it may, and despite how horrible things have turned out for some of the parties involved, I doubt we will see Rampage go to prison for a six month stretch. Could Rampage end up doing some jail time? Possibly, but I don't see it being more than 30 to 90 days at the most (and I would think that is a TOUGH sentence). The miscarriage issue will probably be something that he will have to confront in a civil suit; I'm not sure criminal charges will be pursued because of it. I'm sure his defense will be that he suffered from delirium and the incident was the result of his diminished capacity at the time it occurred. He'll probably lose his license, pay a fine, and maybe some other stuff. Like I said, I seriously doubt he will get sentenced to a six month stretch.


SCORE: 1 for 1. I think it's more likely a judge in California is likely to take it easy on "Rampage" Jackson, at least based on the State's record when it comes to the treatment of celebrities, and I agree the miscarriage issue will not play a significant role in the criminal proceedings. However, I can't say Jackson partying in Minnesota after UFC 87 (as he did) is necessarily the best idea given the fact we're less than a month removed from the incident in Newport Beach.


2. Signing Tito Ortiz to a huge contract would be a poor business move for Affliction.


Jeremy Lambert: FACT. Especially if it's "the biggest contract ever" like Ortiz is claiming. Affliction already lost a ton of money on their first show because they paid guys like Ben Rothwell $300,000. They're already asked a lot of their fighters to take a 50% pay cut and no sane fighter making more than he's worth is going to take that deal. Ortiz is 0-2-1 in his last three fights and hasn't finished anyone not named Shamrock in years. Can he sell PPVs? Sure, but will it be worth it? Is paying a guy 1 million dollars (and that's a minimum figure) worth an extra 100,000 (and that's an extremely high number) buys? This isn't even taking into account the fact that he'll probably be getting a percentage of the PPV revenue.

Tito Ortiz is a draw. But is Tito Ortiz a draw when he isn't attached to the UFC name and doesn't have an opponent to play off of? The top Light Heavyweights in Affliction are Rento Sobral and Lil Nog. Sobral is best known to most fans as the guy who lost to Chuck Liddell twice, and Lil Nog isn't really known at all. Outside of a fight with Fedor (never happening), the best Affliction option is Ortiz vs. Belfort, and I don't think we'll be seeing that one. They're losing money, they know they're losing money, and signing Ortiz to a contract bigger than his head would only further their problems.


Scott Kuczkowski: FACT. Despite the fact that I am not a fan of Tito Ortiz, I think this would be a poor business move. I think that in order for this to become a good business deal, Tito would have to be signed to a fight by fight contract or he would have to be solely a front man and not a fighter.
As a fighter, Tito's best days are behind him and he is no longer the unbeatable Light Heavyweight champion he was five years ago. Tito's style has gone stale and he's not very dynamic in the ring/cage anymore. Bringing him in for one fight at a time would be a good option for Affliction, as they will be able to gauge his affect on their PPV buy rates. Signing him to a huge contract and ultimately not seeing any impact on their buy rates would be foolish.

Hiring Tito as a front man or "mouth piece" might be the better option. Tito is great at hyping a fight, so why not let him hype the entire event. The majority of the media enjoys working with Tito, so he can probably push the Affliction name into untapped media outlets. Even with this option, signing him to a huge contract would probably be a mistake.

Another issue with signing Tito to a huge contract is that Affliction did a lousy job of promoting Banned. If that same poor promotional plan is used for their future PPVs, no one will even know Tito is in Affliction.
The biggest problem with promising Tito a lot of money is that Tito has a big mouth and isn't afraid to shoot it off to the press. He did it while under contract with the UFC. Well, let's just suppose that Affliction signs Tito to a huge contact and promises him the moon, but then has to cut his pay due to poor PPV revenues. How long do you think it would take for Tito to start bitching about Affliction to the press and the money they owe him?


SCORE: 2 for 2. With EliteXC having financial woes, and Ortiz expecting a ridiculous sum from Affliction, I can't help but think that Dana White is out there somewhere, bald head gleaming, with a huge smile on his face and the word "f*ck* in his heart.


3. Carlos Condit may be a dominant champion in WEC, but would only be considered an above-average Welterweight if he fought in the UFC.


Jeremy Lambert: FICTION. This really depends on your breakdown of fighters. I like to keep things simple and keep fighters in one of five categories: can, below average, average, above average, world-class. If Carlos Condit were in the UFC he would be an average fighter. Above average UFC Welterweights are guys like Diego Sanchez, Josh Koscheck, Thiago Alves, ect.... If you match them up ten times, Condit is losing the majority of the time. Condit would likely be on the level of a Dustin Hazelett, who is an average UFC welterweight. The fight with Mirua showed that there's room for him to improve and given time, I'm sure he will but right now I don't see him beating many of the top UFC welterweights.


Scott Kuczkowski: FACT. I'm saying "fact", but it's not meant to sound as bad as this question makes it out to be. Condit is an excellent Welterweight, but the UFC has probably one of the most stacked Welterweight divisions on the planet. I think Condit would find a lot of success, but I don't think he would maintain his status as one of the "Top 10" Welterweights in the world after being dealt a few losses to guys like Alves or Koscheck. I think Condit would be above average as a UFC Welterweight, which means he could probably be a champion or top contender anywhere else, but I don't see him climbing any higher than above average in the UFC.


SCORE: 2 for 3. Condit only an "average" UFC Welterweight? I don't believe Dustin Hazelett has beaten anyone on the level of Frank Trigg or even Brock Larson. Condit hasn't lost in two years, nor been to a decision since he and Jake Shields went the distance at a "Rumble on the Rock" event. He would absolutely be competitive against any of the UFC's top 170-pound fighters, and likely beat a few of them along the way, though of course he's out of luck when it comes to supplanting St. Pierre atop the division.


---SWITCH!!!---


4. BJ Penn does not deserve the opportunity to fight Georges St. Pierre for the UFC Welterweight Championship.


Scott Kuczkowski: FICTION. I think BJ does deserve an opportunity, but I must admit I would rather see him defend his title a few more times before trying to avenge losses against guys in other weight classes. I think that right now we are seeing the best BJ Penn and the best Georges St. Pierre, so this fight totally makes sense from the standpoint that folks want to see who is pound for pound better. I guess an argument could be made that BJ Penn should have to fight some of the other Welterweight contenders before facing GSP, but I can't think of a contender whose title shot will be put on hold for this fight.


Jeremy Lambert: FACT. To be honest, I don't think GSP thinks Penn deserves the title shot either. After his fight with Fitch, GSP just can't saying, "I want to fight whoever deserves the title shot" and he never really had the demeanor of a guy who wanted to face BJ Penn. He's obviously not scared of Penn since he's fought him before and he beat him. I just think he doesn't believe Penn has earned the title shot. Penn is 0-2 in his last two Welterweight fights and I don't think it's right for him to leap frog a guy like Thiago Alves, who would easily earn a title shot should he beat Diego Sanchez.

Dana White has always said, "guys can move up or down when they clean out their division" and has BJ Penn really cleaned out the Lightweight division? So far he's defeated Jens Pulver, Joe Stevenson, and Sean Sherk. That's not really cleaning out the division in my mind. Is Penn a class above pretty much every Lightweight in the UFC? Sure, but that doesn't mean he shouldn't prove it. I think a fighter should defend the title three times before they decided to move up in weight classes. That gives you one win over the champion at the time and three wins over the second best fighter in your division. If you don't defend it three times, drop the belt and don't put the division on ice for a number of months. Penn vs. GSP is a big fight and a money fight but it shouldn't happen just because the words, "29-28 St. Pierre, 29-28 Penn, and 29-28 for your winner.....GEORGES "RUSH" ST. PIERRRRREEEE!" haunt him every night.


SCORE: 2 for 4. While I love the notion of two phenoms like St. Pierre and Penn squaring off against each other, regardless of their previous fight's outcome, the UFC needs to consider the other deserving athletes in each weight class and how valuable their company's championships are. If this fight absolutely must go down before the end of 2008, I'm hoping the UFC creates some sort of bullsh*t interim title to allow St. Pierre and Penn a chance to potentially go five full rounds without affecting the actual Welterweight/Lightweight Championships.


5. Kenny Florian should be considered the top contender in the UFC Lightweight Division.


Scott Kuczkowski: FACT. Absolutely Florian has earned himself a spot at the top of the division. Kenny has two losses in the UFC; one to Diego Sanchez as a Middleweight and one to Sean Sherk. With the exception of Sherk and Huerta, none of Florian's fights have ever gone to the judges. Right now he is on a five fight winning streak after beating the likes of Dokonjonosuke Mishima, Alvin Robinson, Din Thomas, Joe Lauzon, and Roger Huerta. Aside from having to fight Sean Sherk again, I don't know what more could be asked of him. The distance between Penn at #1 and Florian at #2 might be pretty wide, but I definitely think KenFlo can claim that spot.


Jeremy Lambert: FACT. Who else is there? Every other top UFC Lightweight either has a blemish on their record against a top contender or they haven't beaten a top contender. Tyson Griffin lost to Frank Edgar, Frank Edgar lost to Gray Maynard, Clay Guida has losses to Huerta and Griffin, Stevenson and Sherk already have losses to Penn, so who's left? The UFC Lightweight division is a stacked division but no one is really separating themselves from the pack like Florian has down. Since his loss to Sherk, Florian has won five straight fights and has finished in four of them. FLORIAN FINISHES FIGHTS! Love him or hate him, the guy just seems to win.


SCORE: 3 for 5. I have a feeling we may see Florian vs. the winner of Sherk/Griffin as a means to determining a clear-cut top contender while also allowing time for BJ Penn to fatten back up and compete against St. Pierre.


6. Based on his performance at UFC 87, Brock Lesnar should be favored against every other UFC Heavyweight he faces (other than champ "Minotauro" Nogueira).


Scott Kuczkowski: FICTION. ...but I say that only based on what I saw at UFC 87. Brock demonstrated that strength-wise, he will probably never meet an equal inside the Octagon. He also demonstrated a very good wrestling base, some decent striking, and a great deal of top control. What Brock lacks is greater use of back control, refined striking skills, and submissions. Without those three things, he will be forced to pound out victories as opposed to finishing, thus allowing his opponents 15 minutes to try and unravel his game plan. Brock was able to smother Herring, but Herring has traditionally had difficulties getting big wrestlers off of him. Brock can rely on those types of victories for only so long. There are several fighters out there who can conceivably come up with the right game plan to shut Brock down. If Brock Lesnar improves and can learn some jiu-jitsu, I would have to change my answer to fact.


Jeremy Lambert: FICTION. Only because I think he'd be favored against Nogueira as well. Lesnar, having one and two professional fights, was favored against Mir and Herring so the more experience he gets, the more he'll continued to be favored. Let me be clear, I'm going by Vegas odds here. I think most people would favor Nog if they fought tomorrow but I think Vegas would favor Lesnar. Unless Lesnar just goes on some type of losing streak, Vegas is going to favor him in every fight from here on out because he's had 3 professional fights and he's only going to get better.


SCORE: 4 for 6. You're a slippery fish, Mr. Lambert, but you make a good point. From now on, I'll clarify "favored" as either being in the eyes of fans, bookies, or both. I see Lesnar stumbling against Heavyweights who are extremely versed in jiujitsu (Mir, Nogueira, Werdum, etc.), as there aren't any athletes in his division who I see as having sharp enough striking to test his chin outside of perhaps Gabriel Gonzaga. Sorry, Kongo fans, but your boy got outwrestled by Carmello Marrero and smothered by Heath Herring. There's little doubt in my mind Lesnar will handle him if they fight.


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Join us next week when two more participants discuss Brock Lesnar's post-fight antics towards Heath Herring, Dana White's comments about the signing of "Cro Cop" as a means to bring down PRIDE, Jon Fitch's next move, and a few other issues lingering out there in the land o' MMA...