Jon's MMA Juggernaut 09.03.08: Devil's Advocate UFC 88 Preview

Posted by Jonathan Solomon on 09.03.2008

This week the Juggernaut makes the case why Rashad Evans, Matt Hamill and Yoshiyuki Yoshida will win at UFC 88. Plus, some closing comments on the K.J. Noons debacle.

Welcome to your second helping of The Juggernaut. This week, I will be taking a special look at some of the fights set to take place this Saturday evening at UFC 88 in Atlanta, Georgia. Here's your warning though because this will not be the place for logical insight. You will receive the logic the rest of the week for the big show, concluding with our Roundtable Discussion.

As it stands now, the biggest underdogs in their respective fights are Rashad Evans, Matt Hamill and Yoshiyuki Yoshida. They are fighting Chuck Liddell, Rich Franklin and Karo Parisyan, respectively. So instead of telling you why the favorites will make easy work of their opponents, I will make a case for why the underdogs will win this weekend.





Main Event Light Heavyweight Fight
Chuck Liddell vs. Rashad Evans


Rashad Evans will main event his second UFC event this weekend as he continues on with his undefeated professional record. His last fight was the main event at UFC 78, a win over the then-undefeated Michael Bisping. Many will say that Evans is in way over his head here against one of the sport's very best. I'm a fan of Chuck Liddell (who isn't?) and he is still one of the premiere fighters in the division, there's no debate. So, with all that said, how can Rashad Evans compete with one of the best? Well, let's take a look.

Rashad Evans was a successful high school and collegiate wrestler. Chuck Liddell was also a collegiate wrestler, although he is better known for his striking ability. People love to point to Liddell's fight with Tito Ortiz almost two years ago and see his great wrestling defense. Hell, the man has beaten Randy Couture who is another celebrated wrestler. So unless Evans can channel the monster that is Brock Lesnar, chances are he will not be able to vehemently take Chuck Liddell down at will.

Perhaps that is the case. Remember when Keith Jardine defeated Liddell on the judge's scorecards? Don't think for one second that that fact is lost upon Evans. Jardine and Evans are training partners. Jardine utilized leg kicks and his boxing game to win on two of the three judge's scorecards. Now does Rashad Evans have that ability?



The Iceman, trying not to bust a gut


We have seen Evans use a kick to his advantage (just ask Sean Salmon). The key is whether Evans is totally comfortable to stand for three rounds and not go for the takedown unless the opportunity presents itself. Evans can use his striking game to "butter" Liddell and set him up for the takedown to take the round on the scorecard. Now it may not make for the most exciting fight but a win is a win. The task of avoiding Chuck Liddell's giant paw's is likely going to mean make or break for Evans. If at any point of the potential 15-minute fight, he gets too tired or even the least bit lazy, he could get hit flush on the chin. Rashad understands he is fighting one of the best in the sport, so the chance he comes in ill prepared from a cardio or motivational standpoint is slim.

Liddell has been knocked out before. Evans has never been knocked out in his undefeated career. He beat Michael Bisping, Stephan Bonnar, Jason Lambert and fought to a draw with Tito Ortiz (combined, the four opponents have won 17 fights by knockout in the UFC). Now you can argue Evans has never fought a man with the power of "The Iceman." Liddell's bread and butter is the stand-up game, so how could Evans not train and improve his boxing skills?

Many compare Evans' style to that of Tito Ortiz, another wrestler. If you look back at Liddell's fight with Ortiz in December 2006, Chuck hurt Tito with his boxing. Tito would shoot for the takedown, fail and get hammered. Finally, Chuck took Tito down and ended the fight by TKO. For Evans, the point will be to avoid Chuck's massive counter punches. Easier said than done obviously but Evans has the skills to do just that.

Rashad Evans has the wrestling background, has never been knocked out and can stand and strike. Liddell is not the same invincible fighter he was 15 months ago. Don't forget, Wanderlei Silva narrowly lost the second round back in December and ended up losing the fight in the third round. Liddell is a man who can be beat.

You should not be surprised if we see Rashad Evans turn into the happiest fighter in Georgia on Saturday. Even happier than this guy...






Light Heavyweight Fight
Rich Franklin vs. Matt Hamill

Rich Franklin moves up to the 205-division in a play to avoid ever having to step into a cage to meet Anderson Silva again. Franklin was decimated twice by Silva. His most recent non-Silva fights include non-inspired wins over Yushin Okami and Travis Lutter. He defeated Okami by unanimous decision in a slow and prodding fight. Lutter actually won the first round against Franklin but tired out in the second and Franklin won.

Matt Hamill is a fan favorite due to his time on The Ultimate Fighter plus his controversial decision loss to Michael Bisping about a year ago. There is no doubt that Hamill is the better wrestler. Recall that Hamill surprised many with his improved stand-up skills in the Bisping fight. Franklin definitely has the better striking game but you cannot underestimate Hamill's game. If Franklin doesn't respect Hamill's punching power, he could be sleeping under the lights.


Hamill's improved striking ability surprised Michael Bisping last year.

Although Hamill does not have a submission victory on his record, he has finished three of his fights with punches. Chances are you will not see Rich Franklin having to get out of a deep triangle, an armbar or a kimura as he did against Okami and Lutter. Hamill will stand, go for the takedown and reign down with punches in bunches. This fight will not be rocket science.

Aggressiveness is a key to beating Franklin. Lutter was doing great until he gassed and Okami was too cautious. Needless to say, Anderson Silva was a go getter in taking Franklin's UFC Middleweight Title and then making him pay for wanting it back. Don't get me wrong, I'm not comparing Matt Hamill to Anderson Silva. In fact, I apologize for including them in the same sentence. However, Hamill does what he knows very well. Just imagine how better his stand-up will be after having over four months off after his previous fight (TKO victory over Tim Boetsch).

Rich Franklin is the bigger name and former 185 champion, but Hamill is a stud well on his way to making his name in the UFC.


Knees in the repertoire are never a bad thing. Look out for the clinch.


Welterweight Fight
Karo Parisyan vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida

This fight poses an intriguing match-up in part because surprisingly, Parisyan is more of a favorite in this fight than Dan Henderson is in his fight against Rousimar Palhares. Parisyan is looking to get back on the title track after losing to Thiago Alves back in April. However, Yoshida is one of the more talented foreign fighters to enter the UFC. Before signing with the UFC, Yoshida defeated Akira Kikuchi and Dan Hardy (although he won the Hardy fight by DQ after a groin kick) in Japan. Hardy has since signed with the UFC and will debut later this year. Yoshida has the skills to rise in the welterweight divsion.

Check out this fight between Yoshiyuki Yoshida and Akira Kikuchi (who has a win over Jake Shields) from September 2007. This was the GCM Cage Force 4 during their Welterweight Title tournament.



Karo Parisyan has been criticized for slipping on the proverbial banana peel at the top of the welterweight mountain. Before he could receive title shots, he lost to Diego Sanchez in 2006 and Thiago Alves earlier this year. Now he hopes to beat Yoshida and start his climb again. However, he is hardly a workout warrior. He even came out himself and said as much. Who knows if he has been busting his ass to prepare for this fight. Reports surfaced thanks to the UFC that Parisyan has been suffering from panic attacks during training. Parisyan blames his uneven mental state as a reason for his loss to Alves. According to the UFC, Parisyan had to cut short training with Greg Jackson and move back home to continue his training. If that's the case, can you imagine the problems he would have in training for a fight. Parisyan says he has changed his training methods in doing major cardio work. We can only see if that is the case.

Yoshida finishes his fights. Safe for the first two fights of his professional career, Yoshida has finished eight fights and won nine of ten fights. Jon Koppenhaver was forced to tap less than a minute into their UFC 84 fight. Akira Kikuchi was ate big elbows and punches until the referee stepped in.

The biggest factor could prove to be the judo background of both fighters. Karo's judo history is well known. Well, Yoshida also has a great judo background. Chances are we will see some awesome throws and leverage maneuvers between these two fighters. Obviously neither man will be unprepared as the judo game comes into play during the fight. If the judo factor is cancelled out, if the fight turns into a ground battle, Yoshida may have the advantage with his submission game. If this is a stand-up fight, both men have solid punching power.

If Parisyan can avoid Yoshida's throws and take him to the ground, Yoshida should be comfortable. In the Kikuchi fight (see above), Yoshida was on his back and defending several submission attempts. This is not a case of Yoshida falling to his back and acting like a turtle on his back.



To review...

The Best Bet: Matt Hamill wins by impersonating Anderson Silva.

The Safe Bet: Yoshiyuki Yoshida wins and Karo Parisyan pulls the anti-Noons and searches for a Diaz.

The You've Got Big Balls Bet: Rashad Evans wins with another soccer kick.



ROLL CALL: Comments on Mr. KJ Noons

KJ Noons responded late last week and officially commented on the controversy after he declined to fight Nick Diaz in October. While Noons may have solid gripes about the way he was treated/handled by Gary Shaw and Elite XC, the fact remains the ball was in his court. He is not going to be making any money by not fighting, unless he is counting on EXC shutting its doors in the near future. If Noons' figures are correct, of course he is not getting the money he probably should. Unless his boss(es) are purposely withholding part of his income or knowingly violated the terms of his contract, he would be better off by fighting or return to boxing. Sitting on the sidelines and arguing, are those strategies to get a new deal or free him from his current one?


KJ Noons during happier times


His claims of not being marketed by EXC are seem true but the only young fighters the promotion has marketed well have been Kimbo Slice and Gina Carano. Nick Diaz is still an unknown past the hardcore fan base, or he's simply known as that guy who once fought in the UFC. With that said, I'm not so sure it was a planned decision to not promote KJ but rather a poorly executed business operation. With all that said, the fact remains that Noons turned down an opportunity to fight on CBS, a platform that could have exposed him to millions of people. It was not EXC who refused to book him on the big show, but Noons who declined. Think of that. If Noons was able to defeat Diaz on CBS, he would look like a champion to millions of new people. Instead, maybe he will be boxing in front of a few thousand hardcore fanatics of the sweet science.

Everyone knows Nick Diaz is not the so-called "real" number one contender to Noon's championship. So what?! EXC is not in the business of booking difficult fights for Noons, they are in the business of putting fights together that people want to see. People wanted to see Noons fight Diaz after what happened in Hawaii. It was great television. Apparently, that fact was lost on Noons (and EXC too, they barely mentioned it on their shows since).

If Noons makes more money boxing than he does in MMA, terrific. Please do focus on boxing in that case.

That sucks because Noons was a fun fighter to watch.

UPDATE: After I wrote the above, news broke at 411Mania thanks to Dustin James that EXC will strip KJ Noons of the 160-pound championship belt. It's tough to argue with them because in basic terms, they offered him a title defense and he declined. In other words, it turns out he is no Tito Ortiz.



That's it for this week and the Devil's Advocate Preview edition for UFC 88. You can check out 411's UFC 88 Roundtable Preview later in the week with everyone's picks. I wonder how many of 411's finest (anyone) will pick Rashad Evans, Matt Hamill or Yoshiyuki Yoshida. Enjoy the fights.