The MMA News Report 09.03.08

Posted by Morgan Marx on 09.03.2008

Randy Couture returns to the UFC and gets a massive homecoming gift. Thoughts on Couture’s return, Brock Lesnar, and Fedor Emelianenko inside. Plus, a list of the UFC 88 underdogs and their chances at surprising on Saturday night. What? Who’s Fabricio Werdum?

INTRODUCTION

Once again, the MMA gods deliver a huge news story on a Tuesday afternoon. Read on for thoughts on Randy Couture's re-enrollment with the UFC and his title fight against Brock Lesnar. Overall, I think this is fantastic news for the UFC and MMA fans. Whether you detest Lesnar or not, the fight will be an intriguing match up, and the winner will have a great unification bout ahead of him. My only concern is whether Couture will still be able to fight Fedor three fights down the road. I think we all believe Couture has one more run in him. But facing Lesnar and Nogueira might reduce his effectiveness in a Fedor fight in the future. I'm assuming Couture would be favored in a fight against Frank Mir, although Randy is submit-able.

Whatever happens, the UFC has put even more distance between itself and the second tier MMA organizations. The next six months are looking to be amazing. If fights like Liddell v. Griffin, Liddell v. Silva, and St-Pierre v. Penn materialize, we could be looking at the greatest run of MMA events in history.


THE READERS QUESTION

The Reader's Question: At his age, and after a length respite from MMA, will Randy Couture be favored over Brock Lesnar? The winner of Nogueira v. Mir? Emelianenko?


NEWS LEG KICKS

Couture Returns to UFC, Defends Heavyweight Title Against Lesnar



Randy Couture will make his return to the Octagon this November, ending months of legal wrangling. The reigning UFC heavyweight champion will defend his title against rising contender Brock Lesnar, according to UFC President Dana White.

Couture, who "resigned" from his position over contractual issues and a desire to fight top ranked heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko, will be entered into a de facto heavyweight tournament to unify the interim and actual belt. The winner of Couture v. Lesnar will face the winner of the upcoming clash between Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Frank Mir to determine the undisputed title holder. Fabricio Werdum was described by White as "in the mix," but becomes a forgotten man in Couture's return.

Couture and Lesnar will do battle at UFC 91, scheduled for the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, according to MMAJunkie.com.

The announcement comes as surprise. Couture, who last fought at UFC 74, defeating Gabriel Gonzaga by stoppage, aired his grievances against the company frequently. Issues surrounding respect, licensing rights and salary all came into play. Additionally, the failure of the UFC to ink Emelianenko irked Couture. Couture views Emelianenko as the last true challenge in his illustrious career.

That's not to say Couture is over looking the presence of Lesnar. Said Couture:

Obviously [Lesnar] is a great big guy. On the ground or standing he poses some interesting problems. I've got to go to work and find the answer to those questions.

Couture has had difficulties against large, wrestling based fighters before, namely Josh Barnett. However, Couture is regarded as one of the true tacticians of MMA, and Lesnar will certainly be lacking in experience.

The fact that Couture held onto his UFC strap throughout his estrangement will make this fight a five round affair. Lesnar showed no cardio worries in his unanimous decision victory over Heath Herring, but Couture will present a much different pace. Couture stated that he plans to weigh around 225 for his fight with Lesnar. Will the speed and experience difference pay off, or will the massive Minnesota native outgun Couture?

Some may question whether Lesnar deserves such an opportunity. Lesnar is arguably a bigger draw than Fedor, despite Fedor's higher ranking. White made reference to the fact that this fight could be the biggest in UFC history. Additionally, Lesnar will have to go through two top-rated heavyweights to secure the title. No one will question his accomplishments should he topple Couture and the winner of Nogueira v. Mir.

BloodyElbow.com transcribed some relevant quotes from the UFC announcement. The UFC continues to downplay Emelianenko's place in the sport. Said White:

This is where all the best heavyweights are. Randy Couture is relevant; Fedor is not.

Added Lesnar:

Who gives a s**t about Fedor Emelianenko? I'm sick and tired of sitting on the phone listening about Fedor. Who f**king gives a s**t?

(Noted wordsmith, Brock Lesnar. Edits added for all you minors in the audience.)

With rumors swirling that the UFC will attempt to promote Couture v. Emelianenko somewhere down the road, White's negative portrayal of the Russian champion is baffling. Emelianenko has been rightly criticized for some of the more preposterous opponents his management team has provided in the past. But Fedor's destruction of former UFC champion Tim Sylvia at the inaugural Affliction event silenced those critiques.

It will be interesting to see whether White changes his tune should Emelianenko's services be confirmed, or should Fedor cut a path through the UFC heavyweight division.

Sources: MMAJunkie, BloodyElbow.com


COMMENTARY

UFC 88 Underdogs



The titles for UFC pay-per-views are easy targets when it comes to snarky criticism. Who can forgot UFC 76: Knockout, which failed to see a single fight settled by strikes? Or UFC 74: Respect, a message Renato Sobral must not have been clued into before his fight with David Heath.

But UFC 88 might have been branded correctly. Breakthrough, the subheading for this Saturday's Atlanta debut, accurately sums up the position of the various underdogs found on the card. Familiar names like Liddell, Franklin, and Henderson dominate the press as each try to shore up their hold on the top spots in their respective divisions. Their opponents will look to break that stranglehold to force their way into the top five rankings.

Will any of the dogs breakthrough and shift the balance of power in the title picture? Or will the favorites rule the day? Here's a look at the five main card underdogs and their chances of springing the upset. The more flying pigs, the better the chance at an upset.

1. Rashad Evans v. Chuck Liddell

First, the positives for Evans: Greg Jackson prepared Evans' teammate Keith Jardine perfectly to topple Liddell. Liddell is coming off the first major injury of his fight career and may be showing signs that age is catching up to the Iceman. Evans made his name in the UFC by defeating larger foes, first on TUF and then against Stephan Bonnar.

Now, the bad news. Evans is not a quirky striker in the Jardine mold, and Liddell will surely be prepared for a similar kick-to-upset-rhythm strategy. Liddell actually wanted to fight with the hamstring injury and his since spent more than enough time recovering and rehabbing. Evans struggled mightily against Tito Ortiz, a large, powerful foe, and had difficulty holding Michael Bisping, a natural middleweight, on the mat.

Oh, and Liddell is arguably the greatest sprawl and brawl fighter MMA has known and Evans plays directly into that strength.

I'm not particularly optimistic about Evans chances in Saturday's main event. Evans is undefeated in name only; the draw with Ortiz is a virtual loss, and the decision against Bisping was uninspiring at best. Liddell is hungry for a title shot and sounds pissed that he hasn't been granted one on name recognition alone. On top of that, Evans has sounded a little insecure leading up to this fight. I'm surprised Evans isn't considered a bigger underdog. What are the chances that Evans can take down and hold Liddell on the mat? What are the odds that Evans can effectively strike with the Iceman? What are the chances that Liddell doesn't hang Evans with his first legitimate L?

Upset chances:

2. Matt Hamill v. Rich Franklin

When a fighter suffers a few losses, there is a tendency to reassess their career. Someone perennially ranked in the top ten retroactively becomes over rated. We find reasons to discount their wins and to second-guess their reputation.

Was Rich Franklin ever that good? Has he ever notched a win over a legitimate top ten opponent? Sure, he's feasted on second tier fighters, but when faced with an elite pound-for-pound fighter, Franklin wilted under the pressure.

That being said, I don't subscribe to that notion. While Franklin has never competed in a division noted for its depth, we're still talking about a fighter with only one non-Anderson Silva loss to his name.

It seems obvious to say that Matt Hamill is no Anderson Silva. Franklin has demonstrated the ability to handle fighters with Hamill's skill set in the past. While Franklin's takedown defense isn't world renowned, he finds ways to minimize damage on the ground and he escapes seemingly tight submissions routinely. Hamill has striking power, but his MO is overwhelming outgunned (or out gassed) opponents. Franklin will be neither.

Upset chances:

3. Yoshiyuki Yoshida v. Karo Parisyan

Now we come to the interesting fights. I can't believe Karo is being favored so heavily by certain sites. BetUS.com gives both Palhares and Hamill better odds, placing Yoshida alongside Evans at +200 underdogs. Now, I'm not a betting man, but that's crazy.

Yoshida amassed a more-than-respectable record outside of the UFC. He holds wins over Akira Kikuchi and Katsuya Inoue. He impressed immensely in his US debut, handling War Machine easily (and that name will never get old, check his Wikipedia page sometime).

Now, perhaps I'm over ranking his last fight, a definitive no-no when it comes to fight predications. But Yoshida is fighting an opponent coming off a devastating loss, a fighter who hasn't finished anyone since 2006, a fighter with notorious problems with conditioning, and a fighter that recently admitted to suffering sever panic attacks.

Is this going to be the best Karo Parisyan we've seen in the Octagon? Or is Parisyan facing a career crossroads? Yoshida is a talented judoka in his own right, meaning Parisyan won't be able to rely on natural talent to coast to a victory. Of all the main card fights, I believe this one contains the best chances to see an upset.

Upset chances:

4. Rousimar Palhares v. Dan Henderson

Henderson might be grumpy about facing a fighter lacking name recognition, but the former Pride champion needs to notch a win in the Octagon. Unfortunately, Palhares is the worst kind of foe for a fighter on a losing streak: unheralded, but dangerous.

The UFC seems to have embellished Palhares' won/loss record by about eight wins. Regardless, Palhares cut a swath through Brazil, wining 75 percent of his fights by submission. Palhares made short work of Ivan Salaverry in his UFC debut, demonstrate great positional awareness and incredibly quick submission transitions.

However, Salaverry wasn't close to 100 percent and Dan Henderson is a different sort of fighter. Though 0-2 in the UFC, Henderson losses cames at the hands of two pound-for-pound top five fighters.

Palhares can't be expected to take Henderson to the mat with ease. Palhares will have to demonstrate his much-ballyhooed takedown skills in this fight. Similarly, he's going to have to show something in the stand up game against a striker with KO power in both hands (as we're constantly reminded).

Toquinho's best chance at scoring the win obviously comes via submission. Perhaps he can exploit a momentary weakness in Henderson'' defense during a transition from takedown to ground control. If not, Henderson will be on his way to earning another shot at a UFC title.

Upset chances:

5. Martin Kampmann v. Nate Marquardt

When is a win not a win? When you lose two points for rules infractions and manage to turn fans against you by power bombing your opponent. Nate Marquardt found that out at UFC 85. While the record books recorded (umm, redundant much?) his performance as a loss, Marquardt is back in the limelight with a high profile fight against Kampmann. The winner will likely find himself back on Anderson Silva's hit list.

This is arguably the most competitive match at UFC 88. Both fighters are well rounded. Both fighters carry impressive records. And both still have something to prove in the Octagon. Kampmann is looking to become a legitimate challenger for the middleweight title, while Marquardt is hoping to redeem himself after a disappointing loss to Silva.

Though known as a striker, Kampmann has scored a majority of his UFC wins by submission. Marquardt is exceedingly difficult to submit, succumbing only to noted submission artists Ricardo Almeida and Genki Sudo. Perhaps this will be the fight Kampmann unveils his Tommy Hearns impression.

Upset chances:


CONCLUSION

That caps another week of huge developments. Enjoy UFC 88, next week we'll look at the upcoming WEC show slated for September 10. Take care.