411 MMA Fact or Fiction 09.04.08: Lesnar/Couture to Break Records, Three-Way MMA, Affliction in Trouble, MORE!

Posted by Bren Oliver on 09.04.2008

Will Ken Shamrock's presence on the third EliteXC/CBS card be a successful draw? Should the WEC fold its heavier divisions into the UFC? Is KJ Noons on the "right" side of his conflict? Bren Oliver and Scott Kuczkowski discuss these topics and more in this week's "Fact or Fiction"! Better late than never, right?!?

There's a saying that goes, "A day late, a dollar behind." Fortunately, we don't get paid at 411Mania, so only one-half of the statement applies to this week's "Fact or Fiction". The delay in deadline was due to a minor glitch in communication, but rest assured we'll be back on Wednesdays from here on out. There isn't any UFC 88 discussion, as you should all get your fill of the upcoming PPV during the MMA Zone's build to the card featuring Liddell, Evans, Franklin, and Henderson, including our standard "Roundtable Discussion", and cap it off with live coverage of the event starting as soon as it fires up Saturday night in Atlanta.

I've decided to dip my toes in the "Fact or Fiction" swimming pool once again, as I enjoy doing every so often, and I'm pleased to be joined by a guy who, not too long ago, was simply contributing to MMA articles' comment sections and making his opinions known in 411Mania's MMA forum. Scott Kuczkowski's "The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly" can be found following any MMA event and event on weeks in-between. Make sure to throw on a cowboy hat, a poncho, and a six-shooter, then go mosey on over to one of his columns and give it a look. Now that you know who the players are, let's get into the secret ingredients on which they'll be basing their six savory responses - the topics!


Readers...are you ready? Fellow columnist...are you ready? Then, America, with an enlarged heart and an empty skull, I say unto you the words of my Uncle...


ALLEZ FACT OR FICTION!!!!!!!


1. There will be a large dip in buyrates for Affliction's second show based on the lack of starpower in comparison to their first outing.


Scott Kuczkowski: FACT. The first show had a bunch of bouts that a lot of people always talked about but didn't think they would ever see. Plus, most people were introduced to the unstoppable Fedor for the first time. This time around, the luster seems to be gone from the show and there isn't as much buzz about it as there was the first time. When I say "fact", I'm saying there will be a dip in buyrates, though how much lower they can go from the first event is beyond me. I don't know the numbers or if they were ever released, but I'd heard they were around 50K - 70K. I could see this event doing less than those.


Bren Oliver: FACT. My jaw will drop if "Day of Reckoning" draws anywhere close-to the audience "Banned" pulled in. Beyond the overall collection of talent on Affliction's initial card being far superior to that of their second offering, there was also the appeal of it being the first event from a brand new promotion. Now that the cherry has been popped, and the collective level of involved fighters has taken a plunge, I don't see how "Day of Reckoning" will turn in anything more than a disappointing result. Also, one of the major criticisms voiced by fans in regards to "Banned" was the apparent lack of advertising on television and the internet. Here we are approximately a month out from Show #2 (with a main event that's been set for quite some time), and, once again, the PPV seems to be receiving very little promotional attention from within the organization. In the words of Dustin Hoffman's character from "Rain Man", all signs in regards to Affliction's long-term future are, "Bad...definitely bad."


SCORE: 1 for 1.


2. Ken Shamrock vs. Kimbo Slice will draw a significantly larger viewing audience than the debut of "Saturday Night Fights"?


Scott Kuczkowski: FACT. I think this bout will draw a lot of people in. I think Ken Shamrock's name is still a draw for casual fans and I think a number of people probably think (mistakenly) that the fight between he and Kimbo will be close and competitive. Do I think this will be the answer to their prayers? No. Will people tune in to see the train wreck? You bet. I predict a lot of hardcore fans will walk away shaking their heads while casual fans will be unsure as to what they watched. In the end though, I think the numbers will be there.


Bren Oliver: FICTION. I see the third "Saturday Night Fights" bringing in similar ratings to the first show. The same mainstream public will flip the show on to watch Kimbo Slice and Gina Carano. The same hardcore fanbase will tune in, this time in anticipation of Shields/Daley and Radach/Rua instead of Lawler/Smith. The addition of Ken Shamrock will only supplement the loss of viewers who were turned off by the sideshow production EliteXC/CBS delivered back in May 2008, opting to skip the second event in July as partially reflected by the dismal ratings it brought in. Sure, Shamrock has some appeal when it comes to the masses, but any fan familiar with his time in the UFC also likely knows he hasn't won in quite some time and was knocked out by a relative nobody in his last fight.


SCORE: 1 for 2.


3. In regards to giving his side of the story, KJ Noons made some excellent points, and actually appears to be on the "right" side of the dispute between his camp and EliteXC.


Scott Kuczkowski: FICTION. KJ Noons had some excellent points and if he was trying to renegotiate his contract I would be behind him 100%. But, right now we are talking about defending his title, which he's not doing. While he bitched about the Shaws not living up to their end of the bargain, he clearly isn't either by not fighting. A champion's job is to defend his title; not pick and choose the opponents that he feels are worthy. If the promoter wants him to fight someone, he should do it and argue afterwards. Stop holding up a division (however weak it is) by playing bullshit politics and complaining.


Bren Oliver: FICTION. There really is no "right" side when it comes to the drama between Karl Jr. and EliteXC. Noons should honor his contract, but also deserves to have some say about his career and what he feels he's worth based on his standing in the company as a marketable champion. His management is mistakingly gambling on KJ's reputation in the MMA community, and amongst fans, while "mismanagement" and "EliteXC" seem to go hand-in-hand these days. Each party has their own set of facts and none of us commoners are privy to the complete, unbiased truth.


SCORE: 2 for 3.


---SWITCH!!!---


4. UFC 91, featuring a bout between Brock Lesnar and Randy Couture, will break the record for the most MMA pay-per-view buyrates in history.


Scott Kuczkowski: FACT. Lesnar has already proven to be a heck of a draw. Adding Randy Couture to the mix will really bring people in. "Captain America" and "The Next Big Thing" going to war in the Octagon will draw huge numbers and I have no doubt that the UFC will advertise the sh*t out of this event. Forget all the bullsh*t about who deserves a title shot and who doesn't and who should be next in line and who was promised what; this will be a fight for everyone to enjoy and is definitely not a fight the UFC wants to wait around for. The UFC needs to strike while the iron is hot and having Randy fight Lesnar will be a great start.


Bren Oliver: FACT. Without a shred of doubt in my mind, Lesnar vs. Couture will result in the most-purchased MMA PPV of all-time. The simple fact each man was on SportsCenter this morning, being interviewed in-studio, tells me that it may even receive the most mainstream attention of any event in the company's history. Couture is an icon of industry, beloved by fans on every level, and Lesnar is a 6'2 freak of nature. He brings not only his size, speed, and power, but legions of professional wrestling fans, the ability to "sell" a fight to a camera/microphone, and one of the biggest personalities in the UFC since Tito Ortiz introduced his trademark T-Shirts and gravedigger routine. It is one of those rare fights between two superstars with an outcome few can determine with any certainty. As far as people who might complain Lesnar isn't deserving of a title-fight, I'd agree, but I realized quite some time ago that Dana White is more interested in doing what is right for the UFC as opposed to right for MMA. If you have any doubts, look at the way the Ultimate Fighter Season 4 allowed two undeserving fighters an opportunity at a UFC Championship, or the way both the Welterweight and Lightweight divisions have been put on hold for the sake of making money with Penn vs. St. Pierre II.


SCORE: 3 for 4.


5. It is a good move for Zuffa to fold the WEC's heavier divisions into the UFC.


Bren Oliver: FACT. The WEC doesn't have the talent to sustain the larger weightclasses and it will allow them to focus on smaller guys who aren't necessarily featured on any major level outside of the organization. They have two of the top pound-for-pound guys in MMA, Urijah Faber and Miguel Torres, so opening the doors to more Bantamweights/Featherweights will allow the WEC to build up bigger fights by creating added exposure for potential contenders. The merger also puts Filho in the UFC and I don't see how that could ever be bad on any level.


Scott Kuczkowski: FACT-ISH. I'm saying "fact", but I don't think it will have much of an impact one way or the other. I don't think there will be many standout fighters coming in from the WEC so I don't think it will be as big of a deal as people have made it out to be. It's a good move in that Zuffa will better be able to showcase the lighter weight classes in the WEC without having to apologize for weaker heavier divisions.


SCORE: 4 for 5.


6. The idea of three-way MMA, as was the case at a recent event, is sickly fascinating.


Bren Oliver: FACT. Emphasis on the word "sickly". Maybe it's just me, but I'm an action-fan at heart. I love kung fu movies and well-choreographed fight sequences. In fact, I actually own the suspenders Van Damme wore during his dance scene in "Kickboxer". Okay, maybe that last part isn't true, but the point is I have no problem with a promotion attempting some sort of gimmick match as long as the fighters' safety isn't put in more jeopardy than normal. I wouldn't pay money to watch three-way MMA, unless it was perhaps some sort of grappling exhibition featuring Gina Carano, Rachelle Leah, and Arianny Celeste, and I don't see it being successful on any mainstream level, but if the question becomes whether or not I would click on a link to that event if provided with one, the answer is, "Probably so."


Scott Kuczkowski: FICTION. It's horrendous. Having a Thunderdome scenario would be fascinating if they went and included the weapons and everything, but it wouldn't do anything for the sport of MMA and I don't think having 3-way events will be good for the sport either. I have no idea how such an event could ever be sanctioned, and I picture a rather high potential for injury by forcing someone to take on two different challengers at once. Let's work on getting womens' MMA into the mainstream before we try screwing with a product that we know already works.


SCORE: 4 for 6. Who wouldn't want to see Kimbo Slice vs. Master-Blaster?!?

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Join us next week when two more participants discuss the possibility of Emelianenko/Couture inside the Octagon, UFC 88 results, and a few other issues lingering out there in the land o' MMA...