Cardio Freak MMA News Report 09.18.08: Golden Gloves in MMA

Posted by Jeremy Lambert on 09.18.2008

Cardio Freak is back with a look at how to make money on MMA. Always bet on Randy Couture. Plus there's two events in the coming week so we'll take a quick look at Strikeforce and DREAM and Affliction partners with Golden Boy in what could be disaster. All that and the latest news in the MMA world. It's got more muscle than Nate Diaz, it's Cardio Freak on 411.



Welcome back to Cardio Freak everyone. I am your trainer Jeremy ‘HAPPY BRITHDAY~!' Lambert.

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I listen to rap music. I'm talking about mainstream rap music as well. Lil Wayne, 50 Cent, Kanye West, FloRida, ect…. Don't get me wrong, Eminem is my favorite artist and I like listening to people like Common and Rakim but around my friends, catchy hooks and club beats go a lot further than story telling and word play. If you've listened to enough mainstream rap then you'll know that every song has one thing in common: money. Sure artists also talk about women, weed, liquor, and tricked out cars but none of that is possible without money.

I'm also a fan of gambling. In high school my friend Oliver and I bet on one NFL game every week and when it wasn't NFL season, we found something else to bet on. If I could blow $1,000 every week in Vegas betting on sports, I would probably do it. Instead I'm regulated to small bets on CentSports but I make due. I also enjoy playing poker whether it be online or with friends. Money is essential when gambling though. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins is a battle of who is going to get the #1 pick but when you put $5 on the Dolphins to cover 7 points, you find yourself in front of the TV with a Chad Pennington jersey on and still cursing the name of Nick Sabin. Same thing with poker. I'm not afraid to go all in with 2 5 off suit with a plate of pretzels in front of me but trade the salty treat with a stack of quarters and I find myself folding J 10 suited because that little voice inside my head is telling me that someone has pocket Aces and it's not worth it to make the 25 cent call.

Everyone loves to predict MMA even though it's arguably the most unpredictable sport out there today. "Anything can happen" is a cliché thrown around in every sport but it rings most true in MMA. Betting on and predicting MMA are two different things though. Over the past year or so that I've bee heavily betting on MMA I'd like to think that I've learned a couple of things. I now pass that knowledge on to my loyal readers. Enjoy.

The first rule of betting on MMA is to not talk about betting on MMA. Seriously, don't let anyone know you're laying down cash on who wins a fight because chances are you're going to get laughed at, especially if you're wrong.

Ok, now the real tips.

*Bet with your head, not your heart: This is the most important rule of the bunch because if you start betting with your heart, you're likely going to find yourself asking for money on the streets just to keep your addiction alive. Don't bet on your favorite fighter if his odds net you nothing. I stupidly did this with my bet on Chuck Liddell at UFC 88. It was a smart prediction (at the time) but a horrible bet. Don't bet while emotional either. Nothing cost you more money than placing a bet when you're not in the right condition. In fact, that's how you know bookies are not your friends. Your friends would talk you out of hooking up with the ugly chick at a party after coming off an emotional break up. Your bookie isn't going to talk you out of laying down $1,000 on the White Sox to win by at least 2.5 against the Red Sox in the playoffs with Josh Beckett on the hill after you just lost $500 because the Jets missed a late field goal and failed to cover against the Cowboys. Be smart with your bets and make sure you're sober and have a support group around you before you hand over the money.

*Bet on favorites early: If you're going to bet on the favorites, get in early. High rollers and drunk people love to bet. High rollers and drunk people love to bet on fighting. High rollers and drunk people love to bet on favorites in the week leading up to the event because they don't know any better. The more bets placed on the favorite, the higher the odds are by the time the line closes. If you're going to bet on a favorite, make sure you bet as soon as the line is up, and make sure he's not over a -200 or so. There's no sense in putting down $500 on a -240 when you're only going to win $210. My rule is that if you're going to bet on the favorite, make sure you're making a minimum of half your bet back. So if you bet $500, make sure you win at least $250 back. Anything less just isn't smart.

*Underdogs are safe bets: It's never a bad idea to lay down a small amount of cash on underdogs. $100 on a +220 underdog nets you $220. Any underdog that's +250 or higher is always a safe bet as long as you're not betting your kids college fund. I believe Reese Andy was a +500 underdog to Brandon Vera a few months ago. No one really gave Andy a shot and if you were to make a prediction, Vera would have been the smart choice but Andy would have been the better bet. In the "anything can happen" world of MMA, upsets happen all the time and it's always nice to make some money off of them. Imagine if you put down just $50 on Matt Serra at UFC 69. Everyone go out and lay down a small chunk of change on Patrick Cote right now. You may be thanking me later.

*Parlay only on favorites: Parlaying bets is where you bet money on more than one winner on the same line. All your bets need to win for you to win. Odds makers are odds makers for a reason. They make lines to tempt you to bet and their goal is to take your money. July 19th was a date that hosted two MMA events that were loaded with upset specials. Tim Sylvia, Pedro Rizzo, Ben Rothwell, James Irvin, and Reese Andy were all talked about as knocking off the favorites. None of them did. It would have been smart to lay down a little bit of money on one of them since most of the favorites were too heavy to bet on but when you parlay, the favorites are the best picks. Putting money on just Fedor wasn't going to make you much money. Put that same amount of money on Fedor, Anderson Silva, and Josh Barnett and your profit increases. There's no reason to risk a parlay bet with an underdog unless you're feeling really lucky, you have money to blow, and you love your bookie.

There you go, four tips for betting on MMA. If you use these tips, pay me royalties. If you don't use these tips, pay me royalties. I'm broke, just pay me. God I hope something awesome happens next week, like UFC announces a scramble fight between BJ Penn, Georges St. Pierre, Anderson Silva, Fedor, and Urijah Faber to determine the best P4P fighter in the world.

Playing to Your Strengths

War Machine (Jon Koppenhaver) was released by the UFC after posting controversial comments about Evan Tanner and declining a fight against Brandon Wolff

The Artist Formerly Known as Jon Koppenhaver was not released for his comments about Tanner and the UFC. While I'm sure UFC frowned upon those comments, I don't think they would have released him over the comments. People like to believe that Jesse Taylor was released because of his comments about Quinton Jackson but he was released because he was an idiot and not that great of a fighter. If anything Koppenhaver should feel lucky that he wasn't released after beating up some guy at a night club and then losing in under a minute to Yoshiyuki Yoshida.

But Koppenhaver was more released for the fact that he turned down a fight. People turn down fights all the time but normally those people are in a position to turn down fights. Cheick Kongo turned down a fight against Brock Lesnar but Kongo has some value in the Heavyweight Division. Koppenhaver had no value no matter what division he was in. He took a fight against Yoshida, who was an unknown to the UFC audience at the time, and then proceeded to look more lost than DeSean Jackson on Monday night. Maybe he didn't want history repeating itself. Look at a guy like Josh Thomson who is one of the top Lightweight's in the world fighting some guy named Ashe Bowman this Saturday. Thomson could have easily turned that fight because he really has nothing to gain from it but instead he took the fight.

Maybe now Koppenhaver can go to TNA and feud with Rhino over the name "War Machine". A Reverse War Machine on a Pole match seems pretty fitting to me.

Studying Tape



When MMA and Boxing collide.

Underwater Ice Bath

Affliction announced that they have partnered with Oscar De La Hoya's Golden Boy Promotions. The biggest thing to come from the announcement is that Affliction and Golden Boy will host events that feature both MMA and Boxing matches

Tom Attencio took a page out of the "Dana White Media Playbook" when he said that this announcement would, "change the world of MMA" because it's certainly not. It's a very questionable move and a move that's seemingly only being made so Affliction can stay afloat a little longer, much like the Donald Trump move.

While much people are pessimistic about this idea, I see a little bit of potential here. Don't get me wrong, I think this is a high profile celebrity marriage waiting to happen but I'll take the Wade Phillips approach and look at the glass half full right now. This idea could work because it could lead to two things for Affliction: mainstream exposure and a HBO deal. Boxing fights get a lot of mainstream attention, especially from ESPN when the right fighters are involved. Golden Boy has the right fighters. Whether or not they put those fighters on the MMA shows remains to be seen but if they do then it will draw attention. In a lot of ways it's also a gimmick and as long as they don't go to the gimmick well too many times then it will draw attention. The other part in this is the fact that Golden Boy is close to HBO. I don't think this is going to lead to a TV deal between Affliction and HBO but it gets them one step closer. A deal with HBO wouldn't mean Affliction is set for life but it gets them an outlet to promote their PPVs and if HBO gets behind Affliction like they get behind boxing then Affliction will stick around for the long haul.

All that said, this likely isn't going to pan out for Affliction and it actually reeks of desperateness (as opposed to awesomeness). Contrary to belief, there's not much crossover between MMA and boxing fans. MMA fans love knockouts and submissions. Boxing fans love shoulder rolls and peppering jabs. How will MMA fans react to a 12 round fight where no one is close to being finished? How will boxing fans react to a fighter trying to pass the guard? I wouldn't be shocked if you actually see fans leaving before the main event depending on what sport they're there to watch. Obviously once you buy a PPV they've got your money but if MMA fans change the channel during boxing matches, what's really accomplished? There's also the potential of one sport looking second rate. I can't imagine De La Hoya regulating one of his boys to the semi-main event so a stoic Russian can get the closing spotlight. Affliction and MMA already look a bit below boxing because the mainstream media is going to look at this as Affliction needing Golden Boy more than Golden Boy needing Affliction, which is true.

What baffled me the most about this partnership is why Affliction would partner with a sport that the consensus is they've passed. Boxing PPV still do big numbers when a big star is in the main event but in general MMA PPVs do better numbers than Boxing PPVs. If Golden Boy doesn't put their big stars on the show then chances are Affliction is going to do the same number with Golden Boy than they were without. And if they do put their top stars on the show then they'll likely be in the main event so it's really a double edge sword for Affliction.

Maybe this move will turn out to be the best thing ever in MMA and it will keep Affliction around for years and we'll all look dumb. Maybe. And maybe the Carolina Panthers will win the Super Bowl. Maybe.

Strikeforce at the Playboy Mansion 2 is this Saturday, September 20th. Here's the card:

-Kazuo Misaki vs. Joe Riggs
-Mitsuhiro Ishida vs. Justin Wilcox
-Josh Thomson vs. Ashe Bowman
-Trevor Prangley vs. Anthony Ruiz
-Cory Devela vs. Terry Martin
-Brandon Thatch vs. TBA
-Kenneth Seegrist vs. TBA
-Luke Stewart vs. TBA

Could be a fun event, if only for the girls at ringside. The top three fights all have one fighter that I'm interested in but after that it drops off. Obviously Strikeforce is hoping that Misaki wins to set up a fight against Cung Le and Ishida and Thomson win to set up a fight between both of them. I can't stand the fact that Thomson is in a non-title fight when he's the champion but it seems obvious that Strikeforce didn't really have a challenger for him so they have to bide their time. I hope Misaki MURDER KILLS Riggs because I really don't like Joe Riggs. I respect that he can fight in pretty much any weight class he wants but when you can do that it pretty much says, "I'm not very good at this weight, let me move t another." Except in the case of BJ Penn who is just crazy and wants to fight anyone no matter the weight. Plus Riggs just comes off as an idiot and a jerk.

Taking Time Off

It was my birthday this past Monday (September 15). YEAH~! Thanks to my parents who funded my trip to Atlanta and UFC 88 and my friends who threw me a party last weekend. I'm still accepting gifts so don't be shy and send me money. Also a Happy Birthday to Bren Oliver (BREN~!) the same BREN~! Who writes PDH here at 411.

I saw Burn After Reading this past week. I really wanted to like it because it's a Coen Brother movie and it's like a sin to hate their movies or something but I just didn't get this movie. No Country for Old Men ruled, Burn After Reading not so much. I'll just make the joke, "the actors should have burned the script after reading it." Brad Pitt was the best thing in the movie an it was well acted but I just didn't get the story. Feel free to explain but the last scene in the movie pretty much summed up my feelings on the movie.

Overseas Training

DREAM 6 is this Tuesday, September 23rd. Here is the card:

Middleweight Grand Prix Finals (16-man tournament):
-Gegard Mousasi vs. Melvin Manhoef
-Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza vs. Zelg Galesic

Grand Prix Reserve Bout:
-Dong Sik Yoon vs. Andrews Nakahara

Middleweight Grand Prix Finals:
-Winner of Mousasi/Manhoef vs. Winner of Souza/Galesic

Non-Tournament Bouts:
-Shinya Aoki vs. Todd Moore
-Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic vs. Alistair Overeem
-Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Masanori Tonooka
-Sergei Kharitonov vs. "Mighty" Mo Siliga
-Hayato Sakurai vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka
-Hideo Tokoro vs. Atsushi Yamamoto
-Keita Nakamura vs. Adriano Martins
-Ikuhisa Minowa vs. Masakatsu Funaki

Looks like another good card from DREAM. The Middleweight Grand Prix lacks star power but that doesn't mean they won't be good fights. I'm still picking "Jacre" to win the whole thing because I think he'll be able to get anyone down to the ground and submit them or at least control them in order to win the decision. A Manhoef vs. Souza finals could be very interesting considering the size and styles of both men. "Cro Cop" is fighting a top Heavyweight for the first time in a year so it will be interesting to see how he does against Overeem, who is one of my sleeper Heavyweight's. I think "Cro Cop" will win because his stand up is better than Overeem's but I'm still not sure he's still all there mentally. Akiyama, Funaki and "Cro Co" on the card should mean well for DREAM in the ratings but the big draw is the Middleweight Grand Prix and that's lacking Sakuraba.

Training Partners

Adam Tool, BREN~!, and Morgan Marx bring the news.

John Curry plays chess. Luken Weaver gives delayed reactions to UFC 88. Stephen DeAugustino reviews UFC 88 and previews Fight Night. Alex Mattis breaks down the UFC Heavyweight situation. Dustin James and the rest of the staff remember Evan Tanner. John Curry interviews Eric Schaffer. Morgan Marx profiles Renato Sobral. Chris Robinson includes a picture of the greatest t-shirt ever. Scott Kuczkowski gives the good, bad, and ugly of EXC: Destiny. BREN~! presents fact or fiction featuring Dustin James and Randy Harrison. Jonathan Solomon looks at The Ultimate Fighter.

Matt McEwen reviews UFC 51 featuring Evan Tanner winning the Middleweight Title and Ortiz vs. Belfort.

AND IT'S ALL OVER~!

That does it for me folks. I'll be back next week with a late review of Ultimate Fight Night and reviews of Strikeforce and DREAM. Plus all the latest news in the world of MMA and God I hope something big breaks. Take care.

Cardio Freak Sources: Dave Meltzer and the Wrestling Observer, Bryan Alvarez and Figure Four Weekly, MMAWeekly, and MMAMania