411MMA Fact or Fiction 10.01.08: Nate Diaz a Future UFC Champ, Less Drama Between TUF Coaches Means Less Entertainment, KJ Noons Losing his Title Makes You Smile, and MORE!

Posted by Bren Oliver on 10.01.2008

Is Mitsuhiro Ishida next in line for a shot at Josh Thomson's Strikeforce Lightweight Championship? Has Houston Alexander fought in the UFC for the last time? Should Jon Koppenhaver still be under Zuffa contract? Read ahead, as 411Mania mastermind Larry Csonka and our MMA Zone's own Jonathan Solomon step into FoF stadium to duke it out over these subjects and more!

Guess who's back...back again? FoF is back...tell a friend.

Fear not "Fact or Fiction" fanatics, as last week's hiatus was only a temporary setback resulting from one of our scheduled participants experiencing something most folks around Mixed Martial Arts are familiar with - a staph infection. It was obviously unexpected, meaning he didn't have time to respond to the topics, but I'm happy to report John Curry is doing well and is no doubt anxious to get back to delivering opinion and wit to you readers on a weekly basis. I'm sure he'd love to hear from any people out there, as we 411Mania writers are dependent on your affection for our work as payment for our work, so drop him a line at [e-mail] if you'd like to send your well-wishes or ask how large a chunk of his flesh was removed due to the staph infection.

Moving on to this week's contributors, both of whom passed rigorous medical testing overseen by none other than the CSAC itself, are 411Mania glue Larry Csonka and our resident recap rockstar Jonathan Solomon when it comes to syndicated MMA programming. Each has some strong opinions to share in regards to our six savory special ingredients - the topics - so let's not waste time with any more formalities.

Readers...are you ready? Fellow columnists...are you ready? Then, America, with an enlarged heart and an empty skull, I say unto you the words of my Uncle...


ALLEZ FACT OR FICTION!!!!!!!


1. Jon "War Machine" Koppenhaver deserved to be released by the UFC.


Larry Csonka: FACT. And not specifically because of his words. He has the right to his opinion, but the one thing I have realized over the past months is that "War Machine" is a very annoying douche bag. He can have his opinion on Rampage and he can have his opinion on Tanner, but does he have to present them like a total asshole? Chill buddy. But when you take everything into account: his legal problems, comments on Rampage, the UFC, Tanner and then refusing the fights offered to him, then yes he deserved to be released, he was way more trouble than he was worth. Go back to blogging and acting like a tough guy "War Machine". Maybe you'd be more respected if you actually did your talking inside the Octagon.


Jonathan Solomon: FACT. I have nothing against the guy but it wasn't as if he was a guy who had a ton of fans or a big fight record. The guy should be dealing with his own issues instead of commenting on others. Plus, you should know by now that unless you are a name, you shouldn't be turning down fights. His fight with Rollins a year ago was great, but ever since, it hasn't been on the same level. I'm sure if he stays on the up-and-up and continues to fight, he could return and make a name for himself.


SCORE: 1 for 1. I agree with everything both of you said, except I wouldn't go so far as to call Koppenhaver a douchebag or asshole out of fear he might see me at an event one day, then choke me out from behind while his friends break my orbital bone.


2. Houston Alexander will never again fight inside the Octagon.


Larry Csonka: FICTION. I speculated about this in my latest edition of My Take on MMA. As I said then, the big question now is what to do with Alexander. Alexander falls to 2-3 in the UFC with THREE straight losses. The man has NO answer when he gets talent to the ground and doesn't appear to be evolving either. As a supposed wrestler his groundwork is overall horrible, and in true wrestler fashion is lost when he hits his back. While they may not let him go right now, due to him signing a new deal not too long ago. But one would have to think that if he loses again, especially in the first round, that he will be the loser that will be leaving town. I would look for UFC to put him in there with a pure striker in his next fight. I think they want to give him a chance to win because the live crowds have liked him. The under card is the likely destination, against someone that will keep it standing. But if he loses again, even in a great fight, his UFC career will be over and he'll be in line to face Kimbo Slice, if Elite is still in business.


Jonathan Solomon: FICTION. Although Alexander may be cut after this loss, to say he will never ever be back, that's too much. For all that Alexander as shown as weaknesses on the ground, he remains an explosive and marketable fighter. He can go elsewhere for a year or so, get some wins under his belt and be back in the UFC. I guarantee, Alexander will be back in the UFC.


SCORE: 2 for 2. Let's not forget Alexander is 36 years old and seemingly helpless to stop takedowns or defend against high-level jiujitsu. Those aren't skills he'll get close to mastering for at least year and likely longer. So yes, Houston has a problem (sorry, I couldn't resist). However, he also has a job with the UFC as far as I've heard, so until he's released it makes more sense to say he will fight inside the Octagon at least one more time. My feeling is the UFC would be wise to play to Alexander's strengths by pairing him up against opponents who rely on striking, as the Nebraskan does, in order to cash in on his marketable look/style of fighting and even deliver some of those highlight reel knockouts fans typically salivate over.


3. Nate Diaz will be in a UFC Lightweight Championship bout before the end of 2009.


Larry Csonka: FACT. I will admit that I dislike these wild speculation questions with SUCH a wide timeframe, BUT, if I have to speculate I will go with fact. First of all we have the fact that Penn and GSP are going to fight. Penn is motivated for THAT fight. Win or lose, that is what he is involved in. IF and when he steps back for the lightweight title defense, I don't think he'll have that same motivation. With the victory over Neer , Diaz improves to 5-0 in the UFC, and is making a claim to a title shot. I wish that Manny Gamburyan had won his last fight, because they had the natural rematch there. Manny was winning their first fight the last time until the unfortunate shoulder separation, but I feel that the potential fight there is cold due to him getting KTFO in 12-seconds against Rob Emerson. Hermes Franca was another possible opponent due to him having a win over Diaz back at WEC 24. But with him losing his last fight as well, that fight is also cold. With Ken Flo and Joe Stevenson facing at UFC 91, I would say that the winner of that could face Diaz with the winner getting a title shot. Or perhaps the winner of Ken Flo and Joe Stevenson gets the first crack at Penn. But when it comes down to it, Diaz is the only one in the division with any real momentum. He has looked good, and while Neer took a round from him, and while one judge thought he won, I just can't think of anyone else in the UFC's Lightweight Division with the chance to roll on to challenge for the title, and yes I know Florian has won 5-in a row as well. So yeah, I think Diaz has a very solid chance to do this.


Jonathan Solomon: FICTION. This is based on time and time alone. B.J. Penn is likely going to fight GSP early in 2009. His next fight could be a title defense against Kenny Florian (perhaps even a return fight with Joe Stevenson). Penn's schedule may be booked until late 2009. Who knows if Diaz will continue to win by then or if another challenger steps up (Huerta?).


SCORE: 2 for 3. Diaz will get absolutely crushed by the UFC's top Lightweights unless he improves his striking. There's no denying Nate's jiujitsu is slick, and his long limbs assist when it comes to locking in certain submissions, but his stand-up is sloppy and would get taken advantage of were he to face someone like Ken Florian or (yikes) BJ Penn. Until Diaz beats some combination of Tyson Griffin, Sean Sherk, Clay Guida, Joe Stevenson, or Roger Huerta, he's not a legitimate contender in my eyes, and I don't see him running that gauntlet over the next 15 months.


---SWITCH!!!---


4. The lack of animosity between Frank Mir and "Minotauro" Nogueira will make the Ultimate Fighter Season 8 less entertaining than it would be if the two disliked each other.


Jonathan Solomon: FACT. I'm not sure anyone could disagree. Personal animosity always makes the show better than a pair of friends or two guys with no beef. Tito/Shamrock, Serra/Hughes were pretty funny while Franklin/Hughes didn't offer much besides the fighters themselves. TUF8 will probably decline in popularity as it seems each season does just that and the two coaches won't help matters. They both come off like cool dudes who you would love to chill and have a beer with. I'm a big Frank Mir fan though so I'm looking forward to the season.


Larry Csonka: FACT. I will agree that dislike leads to drama, and drama with the coaches has made for great TV during the Ultimate Fighter series. But we have only just begun the season, and we don't know how it will pan out. We don't know what kind of crazies we have in the house, we don't know if Mir will piss in NOG'S cornflakes and we don't know if the DRAMA will develop as the weeks go by. The more the weeks go on and the more they play up the fight I think we'll get some interesting TV, and overall I think we'll get an interesting season. But in the end, it will be less entertaining than the seasons with Chuck vs. Randy, Ken vs. Tito and Hughes vs. Serra.


SCORE: 3 for 4. Lucky for all the lovers of controversy, based on at least the season preview after Episode 2, it appears as though TUF 8 will deliver more than its usual share of antics regardless of the mutual respect between Mir and Nogueira. In fact, here's a dandy that should set back the perception of MMA at least a step or two...





5. Mitsuhiro Ishida should get a crack at Josh Thomson's Strikeforce Lightweight title before Gilbert Melendez gets a rematch against Thomson.


Jonathan Solomon: FACT. Melendez has not fought since losing his strap to Thomson. Plus, Melendez did lose a unanimous decision to Ishida on New Year's Eve in 2007. Melendez should definitely get a rematch after losing a decision to Thomson but Ishida warrants a title shot.


Larry Csonka: FACT. While Mitsuhiro Ishida is only 3-2 in his last 5 fights, he sports a great 17-4 record and holds a victory over Melendez at the end of 2007, and that to me helps his case out a lot. Melendez lost that fight, because the Strikeforce Lightweight Champion and then promptly lost it to Thomson in a fight that Thomson controlled easily. I say have Melendez fight someone else, gain some momentum back and then award him the title shot.


SCORE: 4 for 5. I actually would like to see Melendez and Ishida fight again, as the first bout was extremely close and conspiracy theorists out there would have a case were they to say the "T-Blood" fighter may have earned a bit of favor from the Japanese judges simply based on his nationality. It wasn't the worst decision in the history of the sport, but it certainly wasn't one without flaws. However, I like Csonka's idea about allowing "El Nino" to regain his momentum in the division, plus Melendez has recently stated his interest in competing outside EliteXC to test himself against the UFC's Lightweights and he only has one fight left on his contract. It makes no sense for Strikeforce to give him a chance at winning their championship only to turn around and see him leave the company.


6. The news KJ Noons had finally been stripped of his EliteXC Lightweight Championship made you feel warm and fuzzy inside.


Jonathan Solomon: FICTION. I don't know about you guys, but nothing relating to Mr. Noons makes me feel "warm and fuzzy." I agree with the move because you just cannot have a champion (not even a superstar, at that) refuse to fight challengers. Noons left a lot of potential money on the table by refusing to fight on CBS. As I have said before, instead of fighting in front of millions of eyeballs, he is in the background and forgotten. Perhaps, what is keeping me interested in that title is the potential Diaz/Alvarez fight. Besides that, the EXC 160-division is hardly on my list of things to care about. I don't know about you guys, but nothing relating to Mr. Noons makes me feel "warm and fuzzy." I agree with the move because you just cannot have a champion (not even a superstar, at that) refuse to fight challengers. Noons left a lot of potential money on the table by refusing to fight on CBS. As I have said before, instead of fighting in front of millions of eyeballs, he is in the background and forgotten. Perhaps, what is keeping me interested in that title is the potential Diaz/Alvarez fight. Besides that, the EXC 160-division is hardly on my list of things to care about.


Larry Csonka: FICTION. Again in my latest edition of "My Take on MMA" I discussed this, and while I completely agree with Elite stripping Noons of the title, I will not say that it "made me feel warm and fuzzy inside." Actually I was quite disappointed. I don't want to sound like a broken record, but I was a fan of the guy and wanted to see just how far he could go. Sure the talent pool in Elite isn't UFC deep, I wanted to see him succeed, maybe it is because most people shit on him, maybe it is because he beat Diaz when everyone was on his jock. I can't quite place it, but I wanted to see him succeed. Maybe he got too much too fast, maybe his ego grew too much or maybe he got bad advice from his management. Whatever the case maybe he made a poor decision and now has to pay for it.


SCORE: 5 for 6. I only feel "warm and fuzzy" about KJ Noons when he stares directly into the camera. My therapist has advised me to say no more.


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Join us next week when two more participants discuss DREAM 6 results, Anderson Silva's alleged impending retirement, the third "Saturday Night Fights" card, and a few other issues lingering out there in the land o' MMA...