Jon's MMA Juggernaut 10.02.08: Devil's Advocate EXC on CBS Preview

Posted by Jonathan Solomon on 10.02.2008

The Juggernaut looks at why Ken Shamrock will defeat Kimbo Slice and why Roy Nelson and Paul Daley stand a chance against Andrei Arlovski and Jake Shields, respectively. Plus thoughts on the tremendous pair of Gina Carano and Ninja Rua.

Welcome to the first Juggernaut of October which means we're days away from Elite-XC's third presentation on CBS this Saturday night. The Florida show has a new star thanks to a new relationship with Affliction as Andrei Arlovski will make his network television debut in a fight with Roy Nelson. This is a Devil's Advocate Preview where I will look at why certain underdogs will win this weekend. I'll be covering the main event, Kimbo Slice vs. Ken Shamrock, Andrei Arlovski vs. Roy Nelson and the EXC Welterweight Championship fight, Jake Shields defending against Paul Daley. Plus, I'll offer some thoughts on the other scheduled fights where Gina Carano will return to fight Kelly Kobold-Gavin and Ninja Rua will fight Benji Radich.





Main Event Heavyweight Fight
Kimbo Slice vs. Ken Shamrock


Surprising to me, Kimbo is a big favorite in this fight. Perhaps I'm dumb for not looking more at the destruction of Ken Shamrock in recent years but the veteran stands a big chance at the upset. Shamrock likely won't be able to stand and trade with Kimbo or else he'll go the way of Tank Abbott's face plant. Even Frank Shamrock has spoken about Ken's need to take this fight to the ground and dominate from there. The question then becomes, can Ken take Kimbo down without eating a big punch in the process. Kimbo Slice was taken down with relative ease by James Thompson, who is far from the submission wrestling specialist that Shamrock is. Once Kimbo was on the ground, he did not do much and Thompson was able to control the fight. Only when they returned to their feet did Kimbo bash Thompson, resulting in a referee stoppage victory.

Standing, this fight is Kimbo's to lose. If it goes to the ground, everything flips and Shamrock is the big favorite. This is not rocket science and I'm sure Ken has been listening to people tell him just that ever since he accepted the fight.

However, which Ken Shamrock will step into the cage? The hard headed fighter who insists on showing his punching power who doesn't go for takedowns? Or will Shamrock form a game plan around Kimbo's weaknesses and attack. We won't know until fight night but Shamrock has to understand this is likely his last big fight. After this, if he loses, the only possible money fight for him would be with brother Frank. It's possible this Saturday night will be the final time we witness Ken Shamrock on a major platform in a fight people want to see.



Ironically, Kimbo's trainer, Bas Rutten suffered two submission losses to Ken over a decade ago. "El Guapo" obviously has not underestimated Ken's ability in preparing Kimbo so it would not surpise me to see him especially improved in takedown defense. Ken Shamrock is a grappler and Kimbo is not, to say the least. Kimbo will come out swinging and probably look for a KO early. If he doesn't get it, look for Ken to take the fight to the ground and do what he does best.



Affliction Heavyweight Fight
Andrei Arlovski vs. Roy Nelson


I must admit, this addition to the card is great. Although he's not a EXC fighter, Arlovski immediately becomes the best heavyweight ever on an EXC show. No debate there. Both men were scheduled to compete (Arlovski vs. Josh Barnett and Nelson vs. Paul Buentello) on Affliction's October card before it was cancelled. Nelson was the final IFL Heavyweight Champion (remember them?) and only lost to Ben Rothwell via split decision. So it looks like another tough fight for Belarus' best. Nelson's game is no secret, he will look to take your head off with fierce strikes. Arlovski is the same way with great kickboxing skills and a dangerous striking game in general. Much like Arlovski's fight with (former IFL fighter) Ben Rothwell during the summer, this fight should be an all out slugfest.



Arlovski...Andrei Arlovski


As is the case for most stand-up fights, Nelson is just one punch away from finishing the fight and upsetting the Affliction plans for the to of the division. Four of Arlovski's five career losses came due to taking strikes. Of course he was knocked out by Tim Sylvia and outboxed by Pedro Rizzo (six years ago). Everyone seems to think the "old" Arlovski returned once he went to Affliction, not the same fighter who was part of that awful UFC 61 show (he lost a decision to Sylvia).

Nobody will expect Nelson to look to take Arlovski down and impose his will there. In Nelson's IFL fight with Brad Imes, his aim was to take him down and impose his will and end the fight there. Granted, Imes is far from the quality of fighter that Andrei Arlovski is, but could Nelson be thinking along the same lines here?




Arlovski always stands a chance of being knocked out. That is the beef and potatoes of this argument.




Elite-XC Welterweight Championship Fight
Jake Shields (c) vs. Paul Daley

Jake Shields may be the best 170-pounder in the world not under contract to Zuffa. When we last saw him fight, he decimated Nick Thompson in the span of a minute with his tremendous submission game. Now, we will see him fight Englishmen Paul Daley make his EXC debut, riding a six-fight win streak. Daley is a muay-thai fighter with the majority of his 18-career wins coming from his striking game. Shields has made no bones about it, saying the fight will either end with him winning by submission, or getting knocked out.


Check out this highlight package of Daley's fights in Cage Rage



Shields is a great Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practician and wrestler, after all, he defeated Diego Sanchez at the Abu-Dhabi championships a few years back. He made Nick Thompson look like the lawyer he is, not a fighter in the minute-long fight they had on CBS earlier in the year. The key for Daley will be to use his strikes to keep Shields at a safe distance and make him pay when he gets close. Leg kicks could play a large part in this fight for Daley. Shields has never won a fight by knockout although he has four technical knockouts on his record. He wins the majority of his fights by submission or decision. Daley must not get caught or find himself in a position where Shields is in his comfort zone (ie. on the ground, in a dominant position).


A Brief Look...

Gina Carano vs. Kelly Kobold-Gavin

Carano returns to the cage and CBS this weekend, not to fight the Cyborg, but to fight Ms. Gavin. Rumors were that EXC wanted to wait on the potential fight with Cyborg for 2009 so make of that what you will. Gavin has not fought since losing two fights last summer to Tara LaRosa and Julie Kedzie (tough competition indeed). Before the pair of defeats, she put together a stout 16-0-1 record. Carano is fighting a veteran of the sport with submission experience and some power to boot. As is the case for most Gina Carano fights, pay attention to how prepared she is. She has had a clear schedule (compared to her last fight where American Gladiator issues came up) but until she weigh's in, we will not know for certain. Hopefully she can make the agreed upon weight and go from there. Whether she likes it or not, she is the premiere female in the sport and for EXC's sake, she must win. I have never seen Gavin fight so I cannot comment further on her. Usually, a Carano fight is exciting and action packed and this should be no different.

I wonder who will be treated like a superstar more: Ken Shamrock, Andrei Arlovski, Kimbo Slice or Gina Carano. I'll go with the hometown bias and Kimbo.


Murilo "Ninja" Rua vs. Benji Radach

Oh yeah, Ninja is back. The last we saw of this Rua, he was making Tony Bonello pay for his pre-fight antics.



Ninja could find himself warrant of a title shot against the EXC Middleweight Champion after the November bout between reigning champion Robbie Lawler and Joey Villasenor. Radach is another former IFL fighter making his debut elsewhere. His stand-up game is nice and his striking is better than you may think. Ninja is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighter so he will likely look to take the fight to the ground and do what he does best from there. Radach could land some punches on their feet but I can't pick against the BJJ fighter in this situation.


To review, don't let your jaw drop to the floor should Ken Shamrock, Paul Daley and/or Roy Nelson pull off the upset(s) on Saturday night. The Juggernaut Devil's Advocate is 1-1 and 1 No Contest after one event this year, hopefully we can get over the hump. Enjoy the fights and tell everyone you know and a few strangers to WATCH!