Hit the Mat 10.06.08: Why Couture is the Underdog

Posted by Matt McEwen on 10.06.2008

Already read 43 articles about Kimbo Slice and Frank Shamrock? Well, here's one about one of the biggest fights in the history of the UFC, and why the defending champion should be the underdog against the rookie.

First off, I know you'll be reading this the Monday after the big Elite XC on CBS show, but you won't hear a word about that from me. Why? you ask. Well, that's because I flew to New York Thursday for a jiu jitsu convention, and therefore wrote this Wednesday night/Thursday morning. So, while I have no idea how the fight goes, I sure hope Ken Shamrock has been woken up from the KO I'm 99.9% sure he suffered (will suffer? This past/future tense confusion is confusing me). That, or I hope the egg is off my face by the time you read this.

So now that you know why I'm not talking about the current biggest story in the MMA world, how about we talk what will be the biggest story in about 4 weeks. Yes, I like to jump the gun, but this could still be really fun, so I'm OK with that. And yes, I was the kid who tried to eat his dessert before his dinner.

What is that I want to jump the gun and talk about? Well, if you read the teaser to this article, then you already know that it is the upcoming UFC Heavyweight title fight between challenger Brock Lesnar and defending champion Randy Couture. And, well, I'm willing to bet my thoughts on the fight are little bit different that a lot of peoples'.

Before the nitty gritty though, how about a little set up.

We all know who Lesnar is - the former NCAA national wrestling champion who skipped out on trying for the Olympics and instead signed on with WWE and put together an impressive but short run as the face of pro wrestling in North America. He turned his back on that, tried out for the Minnesota Vikings despite not having played football of any type in nearly a decade and came ridiculously close to making the team given that fact. From there, he turned his eyes on MMA, won his first fight in a brutal mismatch, got tapped out by a former heavyweight champion in his second fight, made a tough mid-level fighter look like an amateur in his third and is now preparing for a title shot.

We all know who Couture is - a three time Olympic alternate who entered the MMA world in his 30's, has made a career of winning when he was thought to have no chance, is a three time UFC heavyweight champion and a two time light heavyweight champion, has walked away from the heavyweight title twice in his career, desperately wants to fight Fedor, and will be fighting for the first time in 15 months at the ripe young age of 45.

Here is something that has been a bit lost in all of the build up to the fight (so far at least). It's not entirely coincidental that Couture announced his "resignation" from the UFC less than two weeks prior to the announcement that Brock Lesnar had signed with the organization. Some of Couture's disgruntlement was reportedly caused by the financial amount that Lesnar was requesting (and ultimately received), feeling that some of the building blocks of the UFC weren't making that kind of money and being insulted that a rookie would be. It was not the only reason, but it certainly was a factor.

So now, 13 months after leaving, Couture steps back in against Lesnar who, after two fights in the UFC is still essentially an unknown. We saw a frenetic fighter who wanted to finish Frank Mir off within the opening minute, but in his exuberance allowed himself to be caught in a knee bar. He was all strength and aggression as he bullied the 250lb Mir around, but his striking was technically weak and sloppy and his submission defence was obviously not up to par. In his second outing, he dominated another 250lb fighter in Heath Herring, riding the big Texan for three rounds after flooring him with a huge meat hook of a right hand. While he was dominant and never in any danger against Herring, he looked hesitant/unable to take advantage of the dominant positions he had. Was he just being cautious, or was he just in wrestling mode? We will find out when he steps in with Couture.

But even if he is just a one dimensional wrestler who will have a hard time finishing, can Couture deal with that from a man as big and strong as Lesnar, who is likely to have a 50 or 60lbs weight advantage at fight time?

History would say no.

During his second stint in the UFC, Couture defeated Kevin Randleman for the heavyweight title in his return fight. While Randleman is certainly a physically strong wrestler, he was an undersized heavyweight who would later drop down a division. As champion, his two title defenses were against Pedro Rizzo in two entertaining fights. Rizzo, while a legit heavyweight, utilizes very little ground game in his MMA repertoire as he is a dangerous striker.

His next two fights illustrate the point I want to make. In his third defense, Couture went head to head with Josh Barnett. Barnett used his superior size to control Couture on the ground and was able to pound out a TKO victory and hand him his first loss in the UFC. Barnett ended up in a steroid controversy after that fight, and vacated the title. Couture took on Ricco Rodriguez (pre-Celebrity Rehab and many buckets of chicken) for the title, but the results were quite similar. He was able to hang in and even control the early rounds of the fight, but over time Rodriguez was able to use his 30lb size advantage to control Couture on the ground and pounded away for most of the third and fourth round, before finishing Couture in the fifth round. An exhausted Couture took several shots to his face and verbally submitted due to suffering an eye injury.

The common factor in those two losses - which were the reason that Couture dropped down to light heavyweight and set up his epic trilogy with Chuck Liddell - was a larger man with good top control grinding out a win with Couture unable to escape.

Lesnar makes both Barnett and Rodriguez look small.

Looking at Couture's two fights post-retirement (hello, oxymoron) might suggest that he might be past such issues. He took the title away from the 6'8, 265lb Tim Sylvia and then defended it against the 6'1, 242lb Gabriel Gonzaga. Look a little deeper though, and the answers aren't that clear.

The Sylvia fight is a complete nonsequitor. He is big, yes, but when was the last time you saw him take a fight to the ground and pound our a win. Yeah...me neither. Not exactly the prototype of the argument I'm making here.

Gonzaga, however, is a different story. He's a big, strong guy with a good ground game. Prior to destroying anything mythical about Mirko Cro Cop with that brutal head kick, Gonazaga had spent most of the round pounding the Croatian on the ground. Couture himself said that Gonzaga is the exact style of fighter that has given him troubles in the past. In their fight however, Couture was able to take the fight out of Gonzaga - partially due to a headbutt that broke the Brazilian's nose - and stopped him in the third round. Here is the problem with declaring Couture's problems solved though - Gonzaga has proven to be an up and down fighter who can mentally be taken out of a fight before he is physically...though that part follows not too long after. Did Couture actually solve his problems, or did he just solve Gonzaga?

Throughout his career, Couture has proven adept at winning fights he was thought to have no chance in, and doing so in ways he was thought to have no business even trying (ie KO'ing Vitor Belfort and beating Chuck Liddell with his stand up). He's been able to find weaknesses in fighters and train to exploit them, but what will he do when, for the first time in 5 years, he runs into someone who is custom built to beat him?

I have - and still do - hold to the axiom of "Never bet against Couture" when it comes to MMA, and I would not start here.

But for the life of me, I can not see how he handles Lesnar.