The MMA Juggernaut 12.03.08: The Ultimate Fighter Preview
Posted by Jonathan Solomon on 12.03.2008
Before TUF 8 concludes, check out a preview of the four semi-final fights. Plus, we check a Juggernaut prediction about the business of UFC 91, a tale of the tape featuring Big Nog and Frank Mir, and more.
The first Juggernaut of December is here and hopefully everyone had a fine holiday weekend. Enjoy your days now because in the coming weeks, there will be a storm of MMA events around the globe. Between UFC, Affliction, Sengoku, DREAM, WEC, Adrenaline and K-1, we're set until February. The action kicks off tonight between UFC and WEC. Check out the WEC 37 Roundtable for all the picks of the MMA Zone's geniuses. Now, to the Ultimate Fighter preview.
The Ultimate Fighter season eight concludes its regular weekly series this evening with two new episodes. After, the finalists for the finale on December 13th will be set and featured as main events. Four TUF fights in one night are scheduled featuring Eliot Marshall against Ryan Bader and Krzysztof Soszynski against Vinny Magalhaes in the light heavyweight class. In the lightweight class, Junie Browning will fight Efrain Escudero and Phillipe Nover will fight George Roop.
Right off the bat, if you were to look at the four fights and pick the biggest favorite, it would be Phillipe Nover. When he fought and easily defeated David Kaplan a few weeks back, it became clear he was the fighter Dana White was praising before the season began. Nover, the first New Yorker to appear on TUF, is a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and fights with Team Insight. Nover has said he wanted to fight Roop due to his hand injury, a broken thumb. Nover has shown strong stand-up and is great on the ground. Roop has fought most of his career in Rage in the Cage, piling up a career 8-3 record before entering TUF. Roop's strength seemed to be his stand-up, before his hand was broken, although half of his career wins have been by submission. We saw in his victory over John Polakowski that he still stood and traded blows. He admitted that it was more difficult to apply a submission hold due to the hand and as I understand it, only one or two weeks passed between the Polakowski fight and the Nover fight. With all that said, Nover had plenty of time to recover after his (short) fight and improve on any deficiencies with Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and his coaching staff. I am looking for this fight to end with a submission and Nover will move onto the finals.
The second lightweight semi-final fight pits the infamous Junie Browning against Efrain Escudero. Browning trained with Four Seasons MMA in Kentucky before coming to the show (since finishing taping, he has joined Xtreme Couture in Nevada) and compiled a 2-0 record as a professional. Browning had a self-professed sloppy win over Rolando Delgado to earn a spot in the semi-finals, due in large part to poor conditioning. After that fight, he insisted he would work harder in the future. Tonight, we will see if he improved. His opponent, Escudero is one of the tougher fighters in the house. He is only 22-years old and has already compiled a 10-0 record before joining TUF. The Arizona native has trained with Southwest MMA and all but one of his fights have ended by submission. He was a state champion wrestler in high school and you wont have to worry about him gassing in a fight. If Junie Browning is going to win this fight, chances are he will have to inflict his damage with his punches and strikes. If the fight goes to the ground, Escudero will be comfortable working to pass guard and look for submissions. I wouldn't be shocked if Junie lands a big right or a left and knocks Escudero loopy but I see Efrain outperforming him and doing enough
damage to win.
That poses an interesting fight for the finale between Phillipe Nover and Efrain Escudero, Nogueira's top lightweights.
Time to move up in weight, about fifty pounds worth, to the light heavyweight division. We will check out the Eliot Marshall/Ryan Bader fight first. Marshall, a New Jersey native, is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and has trained with some top fighters. He has trained with Greg Jackson's camp, including Rashad Evans and Keith Jardine (both, former TUF competitors; Evans won season two), and with Nate Marquardt and Duane Ludwig. As long as Marshall fights anyone but Vinny Magalhaes, he should have the advantage of being comfortable fighting off his back. He is well rounded and should be able to set-up what he wants to do on the ground with his striking. Ryan Bader is the top wrestler of the light heavyweights, he was a two-time All American and three-time All-Pac 10 collegiate wrestler at Arizona State University (where he roomed with last year's runner-up, CB Dolloway). Bader's stand-up has been unproven on the show simply because he hasn't needed it. In his fights against Kyle Kingsbury and Tom Lawlor (a fellow wrestler), he was able to take them down at will and do what it took to win. Chances are, Bader will be able to take Marshall down whenever he wants. However, Marshall should be able to stay in control on the ground, unlike Kingsbury or Lawlor. With all that said, all that power can surely keep Marshall from sinking in any chokes or triangles. Bader will land plenty of punches and use his wresting background to maintain leverage and stay in favorable positions.
Our last semi-final fight is another interesting match-up. In this case, Krzysztof Soszynski and Vinny Magalhaes trained together at Team Quest with such names as Dan Henderson and Sokoudjou. Magalhaes is widely recognized as one of the top Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in the world. Of course, that whole argument played into a funny part of TUF8 when he and Nogueira argued in Portugese. In any event, this fight seems to be the essential MMA debate, like the first light heavyweight fight, BJJ vs. Power/Wrestling. The knock on Vinny is he is not a great stand-up fighter, more worried about taking punches to the face than anything else. As far as Krzysztof is concerned, there is no doubt that he has the most experience out of the remaining fighters in MMA. He had a 15-8-1 record before TUF and has fought some pretty serious talent including Matt Horwich, Ben Rothwell (twice), Mike Whitehead, Dan Christison and Reese Andy. His background is also the most interesting (at least to me) where he and his family moved from Poland to Canada when he was young. He played football and soccer in high school and then became involved in bodybuilding and pro wrestling. While working on the Canadian independent circuit, he learned some Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu from the late-great Bad News Brown (a bronze-medalist in judo as an American Olympian in the 1970s) and began learning MMA as a profession. He has good striking and although he may have some knowledge of BJJ, there is no way he can compete with Vinny on the ground. His game plan will undoubtedly be to punch Vinny in the face, punch him again, and punch him again. I think Soszynski can avoid being taken down and that's when his striking will emerge and do damage to Magalhaes. I can't pick how the fight will end so I'll just go with a decision for Krzysztof. It's possible he can knock Vinny out or Vinny may lock on a submission hold but I see Vinny being able to hold his own. This should surprise and be a war.
So the finals for the light heavyweights will pose amateur wrestler Ryan Bader against former pro wrestler Krzysztof Soszynski in what looks to pose another interesting match-up.
Juggernaut's UFC 91 Buyrate Prediction
Now it's time to stick out the chest and pat one's back with the early news on the UFC 91 buyrate. Nothing is official yet but reports have the UFC expecting over 800,000 buys for their mega-show last month. Three months ago, I detailed an entire column about predicting the business of UFC 91 with a final prediction. Read it and weep...
Juggernaut from 09.09.08:"My useless prediction in terms of PPV buy's is around............825,000, and that would make UFC 91 the biggest show in nearly two years."
Oh yeah. I may not be able to pick major fights all that well, but at least I can do something right.
The Finale Battle: Johnson vs. Burns II
One anticipated fight on the Ultimate Fighter Finale show is a rematch of a fight that took place in July. Anthony Johnson will fight Kevin Burns for the second time, due to a mistake by the referee in their original fight. Burns accidentally poked Johnson in the eye and could not continue. The referee thought it was due to a punch and awarded the fight to Burns. Johnson appealed the decision after the fact, but there was nothing the Nevada State Athletic Commission could do (there is no such law on the books allowing them to overturn decisions, unlike California which has done so for positive drug tests).
Now both men return to the octagon next week for what should be a good fight if it was anything like their last encounter (minus the eye poke of doom of course).
Plus, Johnson gave some interesting comments last week when asked about the rematch.
"He won't make it out alive if he pokes me in the eye this time." - Anthony Johnson
UFC 92 Tale of the Tape Part I
We are now about three weeks away from the big year end show from UFC that is titled "The Ultimate." The final Juggernaut before the PPV will be a special Devil's Advocate edition arguing why the underdog's will win. Before then, I will list a tale of the tape for the big main events. Up first is the interim-UFC Heavyweight Championship fight between champ Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and challenger Frank Mir.
Last Three Fights: Win by submission over Tim Sylvia, Win by decision over Heath Herring and Win by decision over Josh Barnett 411 Ranking: #2 Heavyweight
What is Big Nog famous for?: Nicest superstar, extremely tough fighter, BJJ & Judo black belt, does not gas
Weakness?: Will tend to get into trouble in fights (most recently, the Herring fight)
Last Three Fights: Win by submission over Brock Lesnar, Win by submission over Antoni Hardonk and Loss by TKO to Brandon Vera 411 Ranking: #9 Heavyweight
What is Mir famous for?: Broke Tim Sylvia's arm, BJJ black belt, only man to defeat Brock Lesnar
Weakness?: Cardio is always a question, especially in a potential five round war
Thanks for reading and enjoy the full plate of fights on the horizon. Next week, we will continue the UFC 92 Tale of the Tape's as well as have a look at the TUF & WEC aftermath.
