Hit the Mat 12.08.08: Peering Into the Crystal Ball

Posted by Matt McEwen on 12.08.2008

2009 is almost here, but 411’a Matt McEwen has no patience for real time and wants to know what's going to happen right now. In the latest of Hit the Mat, Matt pulls out his crystal ball to see what will happen in the world of MMA in 2009!


So, 2008 was quite the interesting year.

Brock Lesnar went from hype to bust to champion, all in the span of about 10 months. Kimbo Slice went from super hype to bust in a mere 17 seconds, and there doesn't seem to be a title of redemption in his future. Randy Couture went from trying to get a fight with Fedor, to returning to the UFC and losing his return and his title to fore-mentioned Lesnar. Chuck Liddell continued his slide, Forrest Griffin continued his climb. Elite XC died a slow, painful death, and Affliction put on one show, cancelled another and may not make it past their next.

You get the point…pretty bloody eventful year. Of course, now that it's the middle of December – and I fully expect that holiday booze may adversely affect the quality of my writing for the next few weeks – it's time to look ahead and see what might be in store for 2009. Everybody does it, but I get the honor of putting out there for the world to see….and to check in the archives a year from now and see how far up my behind my head is right now…

Brock Lesnar will go undefeated for the year

Ok, so I'm not starting out too far on a limb really.

We know his first fight is going to be against the winner of Mir/Nogeuria, and we know the weakest part of his game is submission defense, but I can not see either of them beating Lesnar right now. Now, before I get killed here, when I say submission defense is the weakest part of Lesnar's game, I don't mean just because Mir subbed him in his UFC debut. If you haven't trained submissions ever in your life prior to the age of 30, and you are taking on BJJ black belts, well, yeah, it's going to be a weak point.

But Lesnar's freakish brute strength should be a deciding factor as he will be able to avoid positions and power out of some bad spots.

I'd imagine he'd have two other title defenses throughout the year, though against who is a bit harder to say. I'm on record saying I'd pick Shane Carwin over Lesnar right now, but if they were to fight next December, all bets are off…

Anderson Silva will lose in 2009

There are a few factors that go into this:

1. He is getting older. As we've seen time and time again, it's the strikers in this sport that seem to suffer the more dramatic drop off's in ability. At 33, Silva is by no means washed up, but he's no spring chicken either.
2. All the retirement talk. Where there's smoke, there's fire….especially if the subject of all the talk does nothing at all to put any of the fire out. Silva has been dominant since winning the title, and it could be that he's getting bored or knows that you can only be so good for so long. He may not want to go the Chuck Liddell route, and lose 3 of 4.
3. The showing against Cote. I realize Cote has big power, and you have to respect that, but the Silva that showed up in that fight was not the usual Silva. He was easily winning the fight, but he was fighting quite differently. When you look at #2, #3 becomes a bit more concerning.
4. The competition. He's staring a dream match with GSP in the face, and the move to 205 is opening up a lot of interesting possibilities. With that much talent in the wings, how long can one man go undefeated? (Complete conjecture here, but what if Silva moves up to 205 and Couture moved down? That could be interesting.)

Chuck Liddell will retire

At least…I hope he does. It always sucks to watch someone hang around too long, and it tarnishes their image in the short term whenever they do (Jerry Rice, I'm looking at you.) Liddell may not be totally there just yet, but he is getting close. If he loses his next fight, I imagine his gloves will be going on the mantle…..for a year or so until he comes back.

Lyoto Machida will get a title shot….and a title

If you read my pound for pound article last week, you'll know I think pretty highly of "The Dragon", and given his comments of the past week, so does Dana White. My opinion may not mean too much, but when White suggests you're the second best fighter on the planet, that's a good thing. If he gets by Thiago Silva – and I'm willing to accept all monetary bets that he does – it will be hard to deny Machida a shot at the winner of this month's Griffin/Evans showdown. And, to further my hypothesis, I'd find it hard to pick either of those guys over Machida.

Affliction will be no more

Can we officially call Affliction FC a bad idea yet? Yes, a few good fights have come up as a result of the t-shirt company getting into the promotion business, but one show for the entire year, a cancelled show and a promotion built entirely around a great fighter who no casual fans know might not have been the best business plan.

After Fedor dismantles Arlovski in January, they have only one big fight left – Barnett/Fedor – but they've done little to build Barnett up and is there any chance they'll be in a financial position to put another show on? It's back to the clothing biz me thinks…

The UFC video game will be released, and it will not be good.

I'm not a huge gamer, but wrestling/fighting games tend to have very little replay value. I'm sure they've done some sort of fantastic ground breaking something or other for the game, but it still won't be that fun. In the end, people will look back and say "You almost fired Jon Fitch for this drek?"

They may not be ground breaking guesses here, but if you could predict all the shocking things that will happen, then they wouldn't be that shocking right?

One thing is for sure though – when it comes to MMA, the unpredictable is usually the standard, and 2009 is unlikely to be any different.