Hit the Mat 12.15.08: The Crystal Ball Gets TUF

Posted by Matt McEwen on 12.15.2008

Matt McEwen keeps the crystal ball out for one more week and looks at which members of TUF 8 might have solid UFC futures.

Quite the week in the MMA world, or more specifically, in the UFC.

Wednesday night's show was awkwardly paced at times, but there were some great (and disgusting) finishes and overall, the show was worth watching. Hopefully they cut down on the mismatches in future events though......did anyone other than Jonathan Goulet really give him much of a chance against Mike Swick? And why in the name of god would Razak Al-Hassan not submit when his elbow was on the verge of dislocating? I know it was a free show so it's not entirely full of A listers, but how about having the B listers at least take on fellow B listers please. Leave the C's and D's to the undercard (speaking of which, if you haven't seen the Corey Hill footage do yourself a favor and don't...it's NASTY).

On to my point for this week though, and to Saturday's Ultimate Finale. The show crowned it's two winners for the season, both of which came from Nogeuria's team and both of which were under-dogs coming into their fights. Ryan Bader and Efrain Escudero secured themselves contracts, but several of their cast-mates look destined to make their marks in the UFC as well.

Since I still have my crystal ball out from last week's article, let's have a look at where they all might fit in, starting with Bader and the other light heavies.


Light Heavyweights

Judging from what we saw on the show, it looked like Bader was mostly a one-dimensional wrestler with heavy hands who would look to ground and pound his way to victories, while his fellow finalist Vinny Magalhaes has insanely good jiu jitsu, but pretty awkward stand up. Turns out assumptions were wrong about one, and probably right about the other.

Turns out Bader can hit hard on his feet too, after knocking Magalhaes silly with a shot that was partially blocked. We know his wrestling is good, he trains with a very competitive, up and coming camp and it looks like he has a good ability to learn. All these things bode well for him, but what doesn't is winning TUF at 205. For years it's been the most stacked division in the sport, and it still is. More than any other division, being strong wrestler means little other than avoiding takedowns, but with the strikers at the deep end of the pool, that matters little now too. How Bader does will depend on how long it is before he starts wading into that deeper end, but he's young, showed good composure on the big stage and will have time to learn the division. He's 2 or 3 years and 6 to 8 fights away from going head to head with the big fish, but for some, entirely intangible reason, I think he might get there. Time will tell, but he could very well end up becoming the second TUF champ to be a real champ.

As for the rest of the cast, I can see Krzysztof Soszynski and Elliot Marshall (who's nickname of the "The Fire" is awesome....go ahead, said it all out loud) having solid, mid level careers in the UFC. Neither guy is likely to be a title competitor, but could become solid undercard/build up type fighters. As for Magalhaes, while is jiu jitsu is by all reports amazing, his loss dropped him to 3-3 in his career. I don't see him being long for the UFC or MMA in general. Again, just a guess though.


Lightweights

Phillipe Nover was the guy they hyped to the moon as the "155lb Anderson Silva", but it was Escudero who took the fight and the title Saturday night. Like Bader, Escudero was thought to be mostly a hold him down, pound him out style of fighter, but if he reminded me of anyone it was fellow lightweight Clay Guida. He was relentless as he pushed forward, never allowing Nover to get comfortable in the cage. He looked susceptible to submissions from the bottom, but he was able to avoid some tight attempts, so depending on how good Nover really is, that might not really be an issue. Escudero, like Bader, is nowhere near contender status yet, but also like his fellow winner, he looks like he might have the make up to get there sooner rather than later. As Guida has shown, having a motor that doesn't stop can often win someone fights their talent level might otherwise say they shouldn't, and given a few more years of training, I can see Escudero having the talent to go along with his motor. In case that's confusing, I'm saying he might end up being really bloody good.

But Nover might end up being better. Yes, his wrestling obviously needs work, but you could see the wheels turning in his head in how to try to take advantage of every tiny mistake Escudero made, no matter how small. He nearly won the fight with the omoplata attempt at the end, and showed a lot of heart in defeat. I have a feeling he was also a bit of a victim of the the first time Octagon jitters. His striking is sharp, his functional jiu jitsu looks top notch, he's got a good chin, great stamina and - like almost everyone else I've mentioned - he's got time as he still just in his early 20's.

Sadly, I think we'll have to get used to Junie Browning as well. Whatever his intentions were in being the show's drunk dick for the year, the guy is skilled in the cage. His striking looked clean and crisp and he controlled every aspect of his fight Saturday night. It will be VERY interesting to see how the next few years go for Junie as he just might have the most upside of anyone on the show. And it really pains me to say that.

Just about every other member of the lightweight cast I can see sticking with either the UFC or the WEC, but not as legit contenders. They all seem to have the talent to hang in the lower levels of the division for a time though. I mean that much more complimentary than it sounds, I promise.

In the end, I'd say that you'll see more talent stick and make names for themselves out of this cast of fighters than we have since the first or second seasons.

And who says TUF is dead?