411's MMA Fact or Fiction 12.17.08: Ryan Bader's Title Chances, The Success of Nover and Escudero, UFC 95, and MORE!

Posted by Jeremy Lambert on 12.17.2008

Will Ryan Bader challenge for the UFC Light Heavyweight title in three years? Is UFC 95 poorly planned out? Will Bobby Lashley sign with UFC in 09? Will Phillipe Nover find more success than Efrain Escudero? 411Mania Writers Bren Oliver and Jeremy Lambert debate these topics and more in this weeks 411 MMA Fact or Fiction.

It's the season of giving and UFC gave us two shows this best week and plenty of things to talk about.

It's old vs. new this week as former FOF handler and currently Punch, Drunk, and Hungover, Bren Oliver does battle against yours truly, Jeremy Lambert.

In the words of John McCarthy…LET'S GET IT ON!

1. Phillipe Nover will find more success in the UFC than Ultimate Fighter Winner, Efrain Escudero.

Bren Oliver: FACT. I'll explain why I responded with "fact", though I first want to say I think "success" is a subjective term in that I may view it differently than other people reading/responding to this topic. Is it suggesting Nover will make more money, earn more victories, develop a broader fanbase, or last longer in the organization than TUF 8 Lightweight Champion Escudero? Perhaps a combination of those factors or some other trait completely independent from the ones I listed? Heck, maybe some of my fellow degenerates 411Mania readers think a fighter's success is relative to the number of supermodels he locks up in a Rear-Naked Poke. Point is, there's no absolute right way to define "success" because its relative to the person using the word.

From a talent perspective I think Efrain and Phillipe are on even ground. While their jiujitsu is about equal, Escudero clearly has the edge when it comes to wrestling while I would argue Nover is better on his feet. As the two of them continue to develop and start training MMA full-time those wrinkles will be ironed out, leaving two dangerous, well-rounded competitors who are still in their mid-twenties. Because I feel both "Team Nogueira" alumni will have comparable win/loss records in the UFC I'm calling their potential for success in the ring to be a push. The area where Nover gets my endorsement over Escudero is actually how I feel they'll do outside of the Octagon.

Marketability is an important aspect to consider when it comes to how far fighters advance up the proverbial ladder of Mixed Martial Arts history. While I may feel Efrain and Phillipe are neck-and-neck when it comes to how well they'll do over their careers inside the eight-sided cage, I see Nover as being superior when it comes to his ability to connect with fans and his potential for public relations' use. The UFC is extremely interested in putting on a show in the Philippines based on the population's interest in MMA and the overwhelming turnout during a promotional tour that featured Chuck Liddell and Brandon Vera (who is of Filipino heritage). Phillipe, also Filipino, can literally be for Mixed Martial Arts what Manny Pacquiao is for boxing in terms of being a cultural icon. He is young, charismatic, is exciting to watch, and has shown flashes of brilliance. Nover already has the UFC's hype-machine behind him ("...next Anderson Silva...a young Georges St. Pierre...") so there's no doubt in my mind they will build him up and feature him when the UFC finally conducts a live event in Manila. While Escudero's Mexican roots are similarly of great value where the Hispanic market is concerned, he's more soft-spoken than Nover when it comes to promoting fights to a camera and his style isn't nearly as exciting. I also think it helps that Phillipe is from Brooklyn, as a New Yorker's presence on an eventual card in Madison Square Garden certainly wouldn't hurt, and there seems to also be a general romance between the general public and NYC. New York is as iconic a city as there is in the world and people will literally root for or against Nover simply because of where he resides. Watch out Greg Fokker - there's about to be a new male nurse on the scene!

Jeremy Lambert: FICTION. I'm going just on "success" inside the Octagon. I was never impressed with Efrain on the show but he proved a lot in his fight against Nover and Nover proved more. Unless Nover straightens up his wrestling, he's not going to do too well in the Lightweight division full of guys like Guida, Griffin, Sherk, ect…. Those guys are all classes above Efrain and should have no problem taking down Nover. At least with Efrain, he can possibly neutralize their wrestling and keep it on the feet, where anyone has a chance.

SCORE: 0 for 1. Plus one to Bren for the Meet The Parents reference.

2. UFC and Josh Koscheck will come to an agreement before Koscheck fights for another organization.

Bren Oliver: FACT. Swick, Fitch, and Velasquez all managed to stayed employed with the UFC. There's no reason Josh Koscheck won't do the same. I actually think Dana White may push extra-hard to get the deal done with Koscheck based on his willingness to step up on short notice to fight Thiago Alves coupled with last week's "Knockout of 2008" candidate against Yoshiyuki Yoshida. In fact, forget his old nickname "Kos". Josh is officially "KOs" after that masterpiece at "Fight for the Troops".

Jeremy Lambert: FACT. He stepped up on short notice against a very dangerous Thiago Alves and then came back less than two months later to score a huge KO against a highly touted Yoshida. UFC loves keeping their marketable fighters happy and Koscheck is not only marketable but gained fame on TUF. There's also no top Welterweight on the market right now (Jake Shields excluded) and if Koscheck wants to be the best, he'll have to fight the best.

SCORE: 1 for 2.

3. If Renato Sobral defeats Sokoudjou, he'll find himself back in the UFC.

Bren Oliver: FICTION. I thought his release was hasty to begin with, and Sobral certainly has enough talent and name-value to be competing inside the Octagon, but "Babalu" is tied up in too many other contracts with smaller organizations to ink a new deal with the UFC in such a short amount of time. I suppose it's possible he has a way to opt out of them if Dana White comes calling but I don't know that to be true so I'm operating from the standpoint that he owes at least 2-3 promotions a couple more fights. The UFC doesn't co-promote, meaning Sobral won't be coming back anytime soon until he is completely free from his obligations to Affliction, Strikeforce, and anywhere else he's got a non-exclusive contract with.

Jeremy Lambert: FICTION. Only because I take Sobral for a man of integrity and honor. While I think he will defeat Soko, I believe he'll defend his Strikeforce title at least once before rejoining UFC in late 2009.

SCORE: 2 for 3.

SWEEP!!!!

4. UFC poorly planned UFC 95 with tickets already on sale and no main event announced.

Jeremy Lambert: FACT. I don't believe tickets should ever go on sale for an event until a main event is announced. UFC is essentially saying, "our name brand is bigger than our fighters" which is true but it would be nice to let your audience know what fighters they're paying for. It's well known that the main event is the draw to any show. It's why Chuck Liddell vs. a Broom would do better business as the main event than Jorge Gurgel vs. Dave Kaplan. If it comes out that Thalies Leites vs. Nate Marquardt 2 is the UFC 95 Main Event, you're going to see a lot of upset Europeans.

Bren Oliver: FICTION. With the card taking place in London, I think fans in the UK already understand how rare the opportunity is to see a live UFC event and those who are interested in going will buy tickets regardless of who is headling the show (which is rumored to be Anderson Silva as far as I know). MMA enthusiasts should already be resigned to European talent like Paul Taylor, Paul Kelly, and Dan Hardy being in action while Dana White and Joe Silva have at least a month before things truly need to be finalized. They have a number of options when it comes to potential big names who will physically be available to compete in late February, as even fighters throwing down at UFC 92 could be available to go again in eight weeks if need be, so there's really nothing to worry about where the planning of UFC 95 is concerned. The only minor glitch I see is Michael Bisping being wrapped up in the ninth season of TUF instead of fighting in front of Queen and Country.

SCORE: 2 for 4.

5. Bobby Lashley will sign with UFC sometime in 2009.

Jeremy Lambert: FACT. While Lashley's impact won't have the same impact as Lesnar had on the company, UFC is still a business and Lashley would give a spike in business. I think Lashley fights one more time in a smaller organization, wins, begs for UFC to sign him, and UFC gives him a chance. Maybe it's a "Sean Gannon-like" chance but he'll get his chance likely in late 2009.

Bren Oliver: FICTION. This topic is borderline for me, as the "Soft Spoken, Hard Hitting" one is officially 1-0 in Mixed Martial Arts, Brock Lesnar's crossover success is truly something to behold, and twelve months is a long period of time. However, if Dana White's staff are as sharp as I imagine them to be, they'll recognize that signing Lashley will not have half of Lesnar's impact on the UFC or near the UFC Heavyweight Champion's appeal to sports/mainstream media, and the UFC President's people will talk "red flags" instead of financial figures when the topic of bringing him in eventually comes up. Bobby does not have Brock's amateur accolades, overall physicality, inherent ability to sell a fight to media, or even possess the same residual public interest from his time as a professional wrestler. Additionally, instead of diving into the shark tank headfirst, as Lesnar has done, he entered the ring against a fellow fighter making his professional debut. If the promotion he fought for last Saturday night puts him up against a different Heavyweight who was successful on the same card (a.k.a. Jeff Monson)...hell, even against Ricco Rodriguez who Monson beat...I'll be more than willing to reconsider my stance if Lashley can walk away with a "W". However, until he slightly shocks the world, or at least racks up a nice streak of dominating wins, the American Top Team Heavyweight will remain a B-Level fighter competing on B-Level shows.

SCORE: 2 for 5.

6. Ryan Bader will challenge for the UFC Light Heavyweight title in 3 years or less.

Jeremy Lambert: FACT. This will probably come back to bite me but I'm really high on "Darth" Bader. He's got heavy hands and he's a really good wrestler with good submission defense. I think at this point in his career, he's further along than Forrest Griffin at the same time in his career. Give Bader three years to improve while giving a lot of the top Light Heavyweight's three years to age and possibly exposed against other top guys and I think we could easily see Bader challenge for the UFC Light Heavyweight title in 2011.

Bren Oliver: FICTION. Man, I knew I should not have tossed my "Ms. Cleo" Halloween costume because this FoF has sure been prediction-centric! However, I'll do my best to bust out my Jamaican accent, or at least my best "Staines Ghetto" dialect, in hopes it will assist my Nostradamusness. Yes, I made that word up...mon.

Hear me now, children! Dis "Darth" Bader fellow has some skill, see? No diss to Rashad Evans, but brudda could be the best pure wrestlah on de Ultimate Fightah since Josh Koscheck - maybe de best evah! Me mon Ryan ees powerful too...can leave a mon on ees back with one punch like poor mon been smokin dah herb all day! Tree years ees no joke either and ain't no doubt a lot of madness can leave da UFC's current Light Heavyweight division screw-faced. But, dat bein said, and things bein what dey be, der are too many 205-pound fightahs in da UFC with bettah striking, jiujitsu, and who would be problem-free when it came to defendin Bader's takedown attempts. He ain't gon pass up no "Rampage" Jackson, Forrest Griffin, "Shogun" Rua, Lyoto Machida, Rashad Evans, or Thiago Silva in da rankings no time soon. Da only LHW I see duckin out in da next tree years, barring injury or contract dispute, be Chuck Liddell which, as you see, still leaves a lot of skilled Mixed Martial Artists who be more den TUF - dey be TOUGH! And mon, dis also be assumin Bader is still in the UFC come December 2011. Homeboy ees nevah touchin da gold, no time soon at least...Jah's word.

SCORE: 2 for 6. Does Jamaica still have a bobsled team?

Bren and I disagree more often than not and the elusive 6 got 6 still haunts my reign as FOF handler. Where's Csonka and Harrison when you need them?

Come back next week as two more writers debate the latest happenings in the MMA world.