Hit the Mat 12.22.08: UFC Title Pictures

Posted by Matt McEwen on 12.22.2008

Saturday night there are two big title fights, but the top end of those divisions are already known heading into 2009. Check out the latest edition of Hit the Mat for a look at the title pictures for the light, welter and middleweight divisions!

With just one show left in 2008, we know who the champions of three UFC divisions are, and with most of the first two months of the next year already scheduled, we know who some of the immediate contenders are. Here's a look at what the rest of 2009 might look at in the the 155, 170 and 185 pound weight classes.


Lightweight Division

We know BJ Penn is the champ, obviously, but we don't know for sure when he'll be defending the title again. The dream welterweight title fight he has lined up for Super Bowl weekend with Georges St. Pierre dictates the immediate future of the division in a couple of ways. Win or lose, if Penn comes out of this fight injured, it's going to be longer than the usual three months before Penn steps back into the cage, with his next fight presumably being a lightweight title defense. Hopefully that won't be an issue, but even if he comes out unscathed, win or lose it means it's going to be April/May before we get a defense at the earliest.

The person this time frame effects the most is Kenny Florian. He's the #1 contender, and has already but that status on the line in his last fight. We all know Florian likes to keep busy, so will he be OK with a 6 month lay off, or will he want a fight in the meantime. It would be hard to get another fight in before May at this point, and other than Sean Sherk, who is out there for him to fight at this point? Once he does get his title shot, as much as I enjoy watching Florian fight, I can't see him making the leap from "good" to "great" and beating a motivated 155lb champion. On Penn's side, how he responds to whatever the result of the GSP is will spell out how he does in future 155lb fights. If he does become a dual champion, a late spring defense against Florian might be the only title defense of 2009.

Of course, there's not many attractive challengers out there for Penn beyond Florian. Sean Sherk is likely the next in line, but there is little doubt how a rematch would go after the thumping Penn laid on the former champion in May. Recent rumors have Diego Sanchez dropping down from welterweight, and if his first fight is indeed against Joe Stevenson, he could jump straight into title contention with a win.

Beyond those fighters, the division is obviously quite talented, but it will take a fighter or two to string a few wins together early in the year in order to stand out from the crowd. Fighters like Nate Diaz, Clay Guida, Tyson Griffin, Frankie Edgar and Roger Huerta could all stake a claim to a title shot with a strong showing throughout the year.

The Ultimate Fight Night scheduled for February 7th is going to go a long way to sort out the hierarchy of all the fighters in the middle of the division. The main event is scheduled to be Joe Lauzon taking on former title contender Hermes Franca, TUF winner Mac Danzig will take on Josh Neer and Gleison Thibeau will go up against Rich Clementi. And that still leaves the likes of Spencer Fisher, Gray Maynard (who could very well have the most upside of anyone in the lower part of the division), Kurt Pellegrino, Manny Gamburyan and the impressive Jim Miller to put on exciting fights over the first half of 2009.

It may be hard for any fighter to really break out in such a deep, stacked division, and gives you an idea that the level Penn is on right now that not a single fighter in this division could realistically be picked over him in a fight at this point.





Welterweight Division

The immediate future of the division is obviously dependent on the outcome of Penn/GSP. So, if Penn wins:

With the plan being that Penn would alternate lightweight and welterweight defenses, that would mean, at the earliest, we'd be looking at July/August title defense, which Thiago Alves has dibs on. It will be interesting to see if Alves is willing to take almost a year off waiting for his shot. If that fight does end up happening, it will also be really interesting to see how Penn deals with a fighter that much larger than him, and one that would likely have a decided advantage on their feet.

Also, if Penn wins, what does St. Pierre do? A loss may or not kill the possible dream match with Anderson Silva rumored for UFC 100, but what does he do to get back on track in the division? He's firmly established as a cut above everyone but Silva at this point, and could end up lost in the status that Rich Franklin and Sean Sherk are in - able to convincingly beat everyone in the division except for the champ. That position essentially makes you a challenger killer, which makes you a highly undesirable opponent not only for potential title challengers but for the UFC as well. That being said, don't be surprised to see a vanquished St. Pierre step up into the middleweight division on a permanent status.

But, if GSP wins:

Penn is out of the equation, and GSP is likely going to be considered the best pound for pound fighter in the world by more people than just me. It'll be a career defining win, and set him up to go one of two ways.

Depending on which set of rumors you believe, a victorious St. Pierre would either defend the title in his hometown of Montreal against Alves in April/May or move on to the Silva dream match. Both fights are interesting.

Alves poses the biggest threat in the division to St. Pierre, literally and figuratively. We've seen that the two best wrestlers in the division - Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch - couldn't wrestle with St. Pierre, but it's been a long time since he stepped in with as dangerous and multi-faceted a striker as Alves. Alves is also a MASSIVE 170lber who would put GSP at a size disadvantage for the first time in a while. It's an interesting match up, and one I'm dying to see.

If the other rumors are true, then St. Pierre will be moving up to a catch weight bout with Anderson Silva to be the mythical Pound for Pound Champion. If Alves were to be the best striker GSP's faced in a while, then Silva is....well, I don't know how to finish that analogy, but let's just acknowledge that Silva is the best striker in the sport and move on. While I've said that I rank GSP as the best in the world, I think he'd have a hard time with Silva just based on the reach he'd be giving up. But that's getting a bit ahead of ourselves.

So, no matter who wins, we are most likely looking at just one more defense of the title in 2009 (excepting the scenario where Alves faces GSP in April/May, and Alves were to win). How does the rest of the division sort out?

The two former champions still active in the division seem to be in a holding pattern for each other, as Matt Serra and Matt Hughes aren't mentioned anywhere without being connected to each other. Neither is anywhere near a factor to the top guys in the division, but could headline a show against each other, and likely will at some point in 2009, then probably both will be done in the UFC.

The aforementioned Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch make up the second level of fighters in the division, as both are good enough to put up strong fights with GSP and Alves, but not beat them right now, while at the same time would be favoured over everyone else in the division.

Funny how stratified just about every division is becoming at this point, eh?

One man to look out for might end up being Martin Kampmann, who was making waves at middleweight prior to getting stomped by Nate Marquardt. His next fight will be his first at 170lbs (even though UFC.com is listing his opponent at 205lbs?) and he has the combination of striking and submission skills to give just about everyone in the division fits, and should be big enough if he cuts well to deal with the strength of Fitch, Koscheck, Alves and GSP.

Another fighter who might make some noise is Mike Swick. A win over Jonathan Goulet does not a title contender make, but he did look physically the best of his three welterweight bouts, finally has a healthy elbow and was a player at middleweight prior to getting pushed around by Yushin Okami. He should be ready to move up a level in competition and, if he passes that test, could be in the title picture by the end of the year.

Not necessarily in title contention, but likely to be PPV fixtures, fighters such as Marcus Davis, Chris Lytle (who will face off at UFC 93) and Karo Parisyan (provided he stops being kinda crazy) are likely to keep adding exciting fights to the lower cards.

There are two young fighters who could be starting to edge into the title picture if they have strong years. Dustin Hazelett has shown to have one of the best functional jiu jitsu games in the division, if not the entire sport. His striking has shown some improvement over his last few fights as well and being as young as he is, you have to believe he hasn't reached his full potential just yet. You could also say the same thing about Anthony Johnson, who shows signs of developing a top level all around game. His boxing is very good, with power in both hands, his kicks are improving under the tutelage of Cung Le as we saw in his rematch with Kevin Burns and he is a former collegiate wrestler. We don't know about his submission game, but given his other tools, we may never need to.


Middleweights

Ahh...the division that Anderson killed. Well, to be fair, the division that Rich killed, before Anderson killed Rich.

Really, there isn't much in the way of challengers at this point.....save one.

Damien Maia probably represents that most dangerous challenger that Silva could take on right now, and you'd have to imagine that if he's victorious in the rumored match up against Thales Leites, that there is no way to deny him a title shot. The question is, when would he get it?

Just like the other divisions, 2009 looks like a year where the middleweight title might not be defended that much. Silva's next fight is likely to be in April, and rumors are that it will be at light heavyweight. Add in the possible GSP fight, and we might be looking at the end of 2009 before we get a middleweight title defense.

Beyond Maia, the division has some good fighters, but most of which have already run smack dab into Silva's fists, or just aren't at the level for title consideration.

Nate Marquardt looked fantastic in dismantling Martin Kampmann, and was the moral if not actual victor in his fight with Leites. Of course, he got TKO'd in his title shot against Silva, but has done some trash talking saying that would not happen again. Who knows? We probably never will as I would expect Silva to be either retired or a full time 205lber before Marquardt gets a second shot at him. In fact, it looks as if Marquardt is about to be used as a yard stick for Wilson Gouveia. The ATT product has strong all around skills and looked great against Jason MacDonald, and now jumps in against the underrated Marquardt. If he is able to win, Gouveia becomes an instant title contender and a legit threat.

Oddly, it's likely to be a light heavyweight fight that is going to decide the immediate future of the division. The winner of the Dan Henderson/Rich Franklin tilt in January is going to be the American coach on the next TUF, matching wits with Brit star Michael Bisping. The season ending fight between coaches is likely to be the headline middleweight fight of the year.

While it's clear the UFC wishes for Bisping to be a big star, if he happens to go up against Franklin on Henderson on an even mildly OK day for them, it's unlikely he's going to come out a winner. Which of course kills of Bisping as a title contender for the time being, and does nothing to advance the winner due to their current status. Silva's dominance has made a real mess of things.

Conversely though, if the upset occurred and Bisping did win, he would be an immediate and bona fide title contender. It's a long shot, but probably the only way to create a really marketable championship contender out of Bisping in the immediate future.

One thing that isn't clear is how much time, if any, Henderson and Franklin wish to spend at 185lbs anymore. Both could be factors at 205lbs, and both seem comfortable at that weight.

Like the other divisions, there's a talented group of fighters a talent level below (or, in comparison to Bisping, a fame level below) that includes tough wrestler Yushin Okami,the aforementioned Leites, Canadian gate keeper Jason MacDonald, under-achieving TUF winner Kendall Grove, hard punching Patrick Cote and the double tough Chris Leben, when he returns from suspension. Younger fighters like CB Dolloway could very well have stand out years and be factors at the upper end of the division when the calender starts to turn to 2010, and one UFC newcomer to watch for is Canadian born ATT product Dennis Kang.

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Next week, I'll take a look at the Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight divisions as the outlooks for those should be a little more clear after the PPV this Saturday night (which should be great, by the way).

Merry Christmas.....be safe and have fun!