Hit the Mat 12.29.08: Title Pictures (Part Two)

Posted by Matt McEwen on 12.29.2008

UFC 92 has given clarity to the UFC Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight Divisions. In the final Hit the Mat of 2008, 411’s Matt McEwen takes a look at the future of both divisions....

Well, I would be lying if I said this is the article I expected to be writing.

I knew I would be tackling the immediate title pictures in the Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight divisions on the heels of Saturday night's "Ultimate 2008" pay per view, but I honestly thought I would be talking about the upcoming Lesnar/Nogeuria fight and who would be the second man to challenge Forrest Griffin for his title.

Goes to show what I know. It also shows that both divisions are in flux right now, and that means excitement is on tap for 2009.

Heavyweights

Well, Frank Mir just through this division on it's head. General consensus going into Saturday night was that he had a chance, but that Antonio Rodrigo Nogeuria was at least a bit better than Mir in every facet. As we all wipe the collective egg off our faces, we can marvel at the fact that Mir's stand up looked better than it ever has, and he showed more maturity and pacing than he has ever shown.

So, the immediate future of the division is in the rematch between Mir and Brock Lesnar. So, let's look at the two scenarios possible:

1. If Lesnar Wins....

This is the scenario that most will think likely, so we will start here. If Lesnar wins, he could come as close to being an unstoppable monster as possible. He will have avenged his only loss, beaten UFC champions in back to back fights and be the biggest star in the sport. His immediate list of challengers is not awe inspiring - Cain Velasquez, Shane Carwin, Gabriel Gonzaga and Cheick Kongo would all pose interesting challenges, but all have nearly as many questions.

In short, what I am saying is that if Lesnar slays the ghost of his one defeat, I have a hard time seeing anyone taking the title from him in 2009. I know I've said before I'd pick Carwin over him if they fought today, but I don't know if I say the same thing in 10 months.

2. If Mir Wins...

I have a feeling this is the scenario that will actually happen. Maybe I have too much faith in submissions, but we will see.

A second straight loss to Mir will be devastating to Lesnar. Firstly, it knocks him out of the title picture for at least 12 months. More importantly though, what will it do to his confidence, which could very well be his biggest strength (among many)? He can not say that he was a rookie who just got caught.....you do not "just get caught" twice. A loss to Mir might lead to a bit of a layoff before he gets back in the Octagon.

As for Mir, a win for him creates a really interesting dynamic at the top of the division as there are several fighters out there who could very well be favoured in a head to head fight. It looks like his skill level is heading back to his pre-accident level, and his cardio may not be the question it once was, but now you have to wonder how he will respond to his second dose of success.

As for the rest of the division, it looks as if the first man on the dance card of the Mir/Lesnar winner is going to be Kongo. He showed some good takedown defense Saturday night, and he would need it against both men. I doubt he would stop Lesnar for a five round fight, but Mir's wrestling is weaker, and I can see Kongo keeping that fight up. So, if Mir is able to pull off the minor upset, it would not be shocking to see Kongo as the next champ after him. On second thought, that would be shocking...I can not believe I even just wrote that.

Velasquez is an underrated up and comer in the division, but we will have to see how the UFC/AKA problems conspire to hurt him. He will return from injury at Fight Night 17 in February against Dennis Stojnic in what should be a showcase for him. He could very well be the most well rounded of the next generation of heavyweights, but he has one problem working against him - size. It is hard to imagine a 6'2, 235lbs-240lbs fighter as having a size problem, but that does put him at a disadvantage against the likes of Lesnar, Mir, and Carwin.

And speaking of Carwin, he seems to have jumped over Velasquez and is on the fast track to a title shot. You have to imagine that the winner of his upcoming fight with Gonzaga is going to be next in line behind Kongo for a title shot. Carwin has the size and power to deal with Lesnar in a way no one else can, and we will get a good idea of his overall skill level when he makes the big jump in quality of opposition to take on Gonzaga.

For his part, Gonzaga is maddeningly inconsistent, but when he is on he can beat anyone in the world not named Fabricio. He looks to have been packing on muscle in order to deal with behemoths like Carwin and Lesnar, and he has to know that if he comes up short in his second run for the title, he is unlikely to get a third. If his mind is right though, he may not have to worry about that.

And, of course, there are two legends floating around. Randy Couture and Antonio Rodrigo Nogeuria both lost in the min-tournament that has been going on, and if they are both going to continue, a head to head fight is the logical step for both guys as they are both out of the title picture for the time being. Of course, we may have already seen the last of Couture who, at 46, could retire at any time. He has taken on more movie roles and shrugged off the rumored fight with Chuck Liddell, so time will tell if Big Nog is an enticing enough match up for the five time former champion.

Nogeuria is much younger, but would you be shocked if he retired soon as well? He's taken more punishment than most in the sport, and the world finally seems to be recognizing that he has not looked good in his UFC tenure. And while an injury could account for his pudginess and slowness in the fight with Mir, it does not account for Mir being able to pick Nog apart and become the first man to finish him. As Joe Rogan pointed out several times last night, there are only so many wars a man can be in, and so many punches he can take before he can not take any more. Nogeuria may have reached that point.

That's the top end of the division, but there are three younger fighters worth keeping an eye on who could be starting to gain some title talk by the end of 2009. Junior Dos Santos made a scintillating debut in KO'ing Fabricio Werdum in his debut, and will be taking on the unknown part of this triumvirate at UFC 95. Stefan Struve is a 20 year old, 6'8, 220lbs native of Holland with a nice 16-2 record, with a gaudy 12 submissions. He's very young, but if his success in lower level shows carry over, we could be looking at a future contender. Of course, the UFC is a different beast, and he could end up being one and done.

The final part of this three headed monster is Pat Berry, who scored a TKO by leg kick Saturday night. An impressive UFC debut and Berry looks like he could be a danger to anyone in the division on their feet right now. If the rest of his game is passable, he could also be a factor heading into 2010.

The rest of the division is made up of either one dimensional fighters or just plain lower level fighters who will duke it out with each other or lose to the more skilled newcomers.

There are three faces out there who could be big factors. Fedor Emelianenko, Andrei Arlovski and Josh Barnett would all be instant, top level title contenders when/if Affliciton stops promoting shows and when/if they were able to agree to contracts with the UFC.

Light Heavyweights

So, undefeated champion Rashad Evans? Go figure. I really thought Forrest Griffin was going to pull out the win and move into 2009 as an established champion, but now you have the least feared and respected champion in a while. Yes, Evans has big time power, but I imagine just about every 205lber in the UFC are thinking their road to a title win just got easier.

First, provided he stays sane and out of jail, it looks like Quentin Jackson is going to be the first challenger, if the rumors coming out of UFC 92 are accurate. After his lights out destruction of Wanderlei Silva, Jackson would likely be favoured over Griffin, and it would be a contest between two strong wrestlers who have big time, KO power. Jackson's boxing and counter punching is on another level right now though, and I would put my money on his short, concise hooks over Evans' winging KO shots. Hopefully we get to see this in April or May.

One man who has been essentially the #1 contender for most of 2008 is Lyoto Machida. Not the most exciting fighter, the Brazilian karate expert has risen to not only the top of the division, but near the top of the pound for pound lists as well. He will be faced with the hard punching Thiago Silva in the semi main event of UFC 94, and an exciting win could be all Machida needs to get a title shot by the end of the year. I do not know about the exciting part as Machida is Machida, but even a slow fight could be enough to finally secure the shot. If it is against Evans, a battle of undefeated fighters for a title would be a fun sub plot. For the record, I'd put money on Machida over EVERY other 205lber right now. His style is so aggravatingly different that no one has figured out a way to crack it yet.

Griffin drops back to contender status, and there is a plethora of interesting fights out there for him. A rematch with Jackson or Keith Jardine would both be good fights, and the UFC always has the opportunity to create a trilogy with he and Stephan Bonnar. He is a threat to anyone he faces, and is going to be a fixture at the top of the division throughout the year.

Chuck Liddell is still floating around as well. Despite being damaged goods and on the downside of a great career at this point, he is still one of the biggest names in the sport. Judging from the look on his face after Jackson knocked Silva out Saturday night, it looks like he had hoped to catch Rampage coming off a loss and try to get revenge for his two losses. That's not to be though, and that is not the only rumored fight to fall through. A super fight with Anderson Silva never came together, both Liddell and Randy Couture avoided a fourth match, and Jardine reportedly balked at a rematch as well. Liddell is expected to fight at UFC 96, but against whom? And will it matter? At this point, it is unlikely that Liddell will regain form and challenge the top in the division again, but stranger things have happened.

At this point, I'm thinking, "Deepest division ever." Look at all the guys I have mentioned, and think of everyone I haven't. Both Dan Henderson and Ritch Franklin look like they could be factors in the division, provided they stay at 205lbs. If they decide to formalize the move up, whomever wins their fight next month could make an attractive challenger by the end of 2009.

Silva has lost 4 of his last 5 fights, but he is still relatively young and could be a factor. It's a big could, but a possibility. I would say his best chance at future success lays at dropping to 185lbs where the number of people who can make him take public naps is much less.

The scarier Silva, aka Anderson, is as big a factor in this division as he wants to be. He could be nearly as dominant at 205 as he is at 185, but it remains to be seen how much time he wises to spend at the higher weight as well as how long he plans to keep fighting. With a title defense scheduled for April, it would be late summer before The Spider makes an impact here, if he does at all.

One man who has been all but forgotten in this super talented mix will return in just a few weeks as Mauricio "Shogun" Rua will return from multiple knee surgeries to take on UFC legend Mark Coleman (who will be making his 205 debut). Rua lost their first catchweight fight when he broke his arm, which led to a brawl between the fighter's respective corners, so if there is a perfect fight for Rua to return to, this is it. Coleman is way past his best before date and Rua will be personally motivated here. If he returns to form, he could be the man to break the "PRIDE jinx".

Not in the title picture, but probably the man who decides if you are good enough to be there, is Matt Hamill. He looks to be turning into the prototypical "gate keeper" in that he loses to the elite, but beats the rest. Stephan Bonnar could fit that description as well.

Beyond all these names, there is a multitude of younger fighters that could make waves. If they weren't fighting in this division, both Steve Cantwell and Luiz Cane would have much more buzz about them. Both guys are the real deal and have impressive skill sets that could lead to them being in some bigger discussions by the end of the year. Even Brandon Vera could get back on track, but I fear the train left the station for him about 2 years ago, and it isn't coming back anytime soon.

Add in several talented fighters from this year's Ultimate Fighter class and you can see why this is THE division in the sport.

*****

Hope everyone had some great holdiays, and hope everyone has a fun New Year's. See you next year.