Cardio Freak MMA News Report 01.05.09: Predicting The Future of MMA

Posted by Jeremy Lambert on 01.05.2009

Cardio Freak is back after a one week hiatus with 50 predictions for the year 2009. That's right, 50 predictions that are sure to go wrong in the MMA world. Plus a late review of UFC 92 along with reviews of Fields Dynamite and Sengoku No Ran 2009. It's catch up week for Cardio Freak. It's tougher than Mark Hunt's chin, it's Cardio Freak on 411.



Welcome back to Cardio Freak everyone. I am your trainer Jeremy ‘Just Killin Time In Between Fights' Lambert.

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Predictions Sure to go Wrong

With a new year brings new hope. At the start of every new year, everyone makes new years resolutions that usually involve losing weight or stop smoking/drinking. And of course, those people always fail. That's why I always make my new years resolution, "I will age another year." I have yet to fail in attaining my resolution.

I'm not here to bring you my MMA resolutions or fighters resolutions though. I am here to bring you 50 predictions that likely will not come true but what is the fun in predicting stuff like, "UFC will be the number one MMA company at the end of 2009?" So without further ado, 50 predictions sure to go wrong. Also, the predictions are self-explanatory so I don't feel the need to go into any detail. I'm still not 100% either (read Taking Time Off for full details) so like all good fighters, I must conserve my energy.

1. Thiago Alves will win the UFC Welterweight Title
2. Someone will miss weight in a title fight
3. Chuck Liddell and Randy Couture will fight each other
4. Kimbo Slice vs. Bob Sapp will happen in Japan
5. Matt Serra will drop to 155
6. Lyoto Machida will remain undefeated
7. 3/5 current UFC champions will remain champions at the end of the year
8. A TUF winner will lose
9. Fedor will fight on New Years Eve in Japan
10. Mirko "Cro Cop" will not retire
11. UFC will sign a current Strikeforce Champion
12. Gina Carano will be on PPV
13. CBS will televise MMA again
14. Tito Ortiz will not win a fight
15. Ken Shamrock will fight in Japan against Sakuraba and lose
16. Mandy Moore or Laura Prepon will date one of the UFC fighters
17. Sean Sherk will be involved in the Fight of the Year
18. Frank Shamrock and Josh Thomson will finally fight and a brawl will break out after the fight
19. Anderson Silva will not headline a PPV
20. UFC will hire at least two new ring girls
21. HDNet will be the only outlet for Japan MMA in the world
22. Shinya Aoki will win a fight by (T)KO
23. Frank Mir will win a fight by decision
24. Affliction will run a show in April, fail to pay the fighters, and be investigated by the FBI for some scandal
25. Forrest Griffin will fight at Heavyweight
26. Jens Pulver will retire
27. Urijah Faber vs. Leonard Garcia will do the biggest rating in WEC history
28. Mike Goldberg will annoy Joe Rogan to the point that Rogan says nothing for an entire fight
29. UFC 100 will be considered a failure as an event in terms of delivering action
30. Quinton Jackson will get his wolf on
31. Nate Diaz vs. Tyson Griffin will not resolve the bad blood between the Stockton camp and Griffin
32. Nick Diaz will return to the UFC and lose his first fight via controversial decision
33. WAMMA will no longer exist
34. Gary and Jared Shaw will resurface as the promoters of a new company called ElitePRS that combines the sport of kickboxing and the sport of Paper, Rock, Scissors. I'd go into details on how this company works (and trust me, I've actually put thought into this) but it's best served as a full column.
35. The nipple tweak will not be as successful
36. Bobby Lashley will lose and become an afterthought
37. An overseas UFC PPV will finally do a better buyrate than at least one US PPV
38. At least five actors will use UFC events as a way to promote their upcoming movie that no one will see
39. Lesnar vs. Mir 2 will not be the biggest MMA buyrate of the year
40. Jeremy Lappen will become a four time loser
41. Rashad Evans and Georges St. Pierre will have a dance off during a training camp and it will become a YouTube legend
42. A 2008 title contender will be fired
43. There will be a double KO in a high profile fight
44. A title fight will end in a draw and the rematch won't make it out of the first round
45. Dana White will claim Fedor is the best Heavyweight ever if he signs him
46. Anderson Silva will not go to a decision
47. Dustin Hazelett will win "Submission of the Night" on every card he fights
48. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira will be finished again
49. A top 10 fighter will be popped for steroids and then deny the allegations
50. I will attend a MMA event where the main event doesn't end the opposite of the companies plans

And there you go. 50 predictions that are sure to go wrong. At the end of 2009, we'll look back at these and share a good laugh. I'm shooting for 25/50 correct so we'll see if I can attain my goal. Let the countdown to 2010 begin.

Playing to Your Strengths

UFC 92 Results:

Main Card Bouts (Pay-per-view):
-Rashad Evans def. Forrest Griffin by TKO at 2:46, R3
-Frank Mir def. Rodrigo Minotauro Nogueira by TKO at 1:54, R2
-C.B. Dollaway def. Mike Massenzio by TKO at 3:01, R1
-Quinton Rampage Jackson def. Wanderlei Silva by KO at 3:21, R1
-Cheick Kongo def. Mustapha Al Turk by TKO (strikes) at 4:37, R1

Preliminary Bouts:
-Yushin Okami def. Dean Lister by Unanimous Decision (30-27 x 3), R3
-Antoni Hardonk def. Mike Wessel by TKO (Strikes) at 2:09, R2
-Matt Hamill def. Reese Andy by TKO (Strikes) at 2:19, R2
-Brad Blackburn def. Ryo Chonan by Unanimous Decision (29-28 x 3), R3
-Pat Barry def. Dan Evensen by TKO (Kick) at 2:36, R1

The event is over a week old so you've probably read everything there is to read in the aftermath. That won't stop me for delivering my thoughts though in a briefer manner than usual.

Did you notice that Evans didn't tweak his nipples but did the crotch grab in the middle of the fight? Do I even need to discuss the more effective technique? I told everyone all along that the crotch grab is greater than the nipple tweak and up until that point in the fight, Evans was losing. Rashad Evans is clearly a Cardio Freak reader (I can't blame him) so congratulations on your title win Rashad. I doubted you against Chuck Liddell and I doubted you against Forrest Griffin. I will no longer doubt you Mr. Evans. From here on out, I will never pick against Rashad Evans. "Sugar" me shocked no more. Now what happened to Griffin? I think the punch on the takedown was the punch everyone is overlooking because after that shot, Griffin looked out of it. His guard was lazy and his wrist control was nothing like he showed against Rua and Jackson. I don't ever want to criticize Forrest Griffin for being lazy but boy did he look lazy on the ground.

After Antonio Nogueira defeated Frank Mir for the right to face Brock Lesnar, I had everything for that column planned out. I was going to talk about how the wars would finally catch up to Nogueira and that Lesnar would knock him down multiple times and that Brock Lesnar would be the first person to ever finish Nogueira. I would look like a genius when this happened. Unfortunately it happened one fight too early and Frank Mir was the fortunate person who caught Nogueira when the wars finally caught up to him. I don't want to take anything away from Mir but Mirko "Cro Cop", Bob Sapp, Fedor, ect… beat Nogueira, not Frank Mir. His striking looked better than it ever looked but it was still relatively slow and predictable. Nogueira just didn't have the reflexes to dodge the punches. With his win, Frank Mir goes down as the first man ever to finish "Rodrigo" Nogueira and now sets up the biggest rematch since Liddell vs. Ortiz 2. I think more people are excited for Lesnar vs. Mir 2 than they are Henderson vs. Franklin and one fight doesn't have a date while the other fight is less than two weeks away.

What reaction was better? Chuck Liddell's reaction after Wanderlei Silva lost to Quinton Jackson or Wanderlei Silva's reaction after Chuck Liddell lost to Keith Jardine? Lets go to the tape:





I've got to give it to Silva. I would give credit to "Mayhem" Miller if I didn't believe that he was just hamming it up for the camera.

There's not much to say about this fight. I was expecting a war and then it was over, just like that. Like Nogueira, wars have caught up to Silva and he's clearly on the downside of his career. I'm sure he'll fight again and maybe he'll bounce back from this loss like he bounced back after the Liddell loss but that was a brutal KO, followed by three unnecessary punches by Jackson. I just want to see Liddell vs. Silva 2 because after their last two fights, I'm hoping for a double KO. As for Jackson, he got his wolf on. It's tough to judge Jackson in this fight because he didn't show much but he didn't get caught in a plum clinch, so that's a positive. I suspect he's next in line for a title shot unless he wants to wait over six months for Griffin's hand to heal in order to get his rematch with the former Light Heavyweight Champion.

CB Dollaway and Cheick Kongo won, everyone saw that coming. Dollaway didn't look great but a win is a win. Kongo looked as good as expected so can he now fight a top contender instead of these guys we've never heard of? Thanks.

The biggest news from the undercard is that Yushin Okami defeated Dean Lister in a relatively boring fight. It's news because at the post-event press conference, Dana White confirmed a title shot for Yushin Okami against the winner of Anderson Silva vs. Thales Leites. UFC 92 ended with about 25 minutes left before the hour. They could have put Okami vs. Lister on TV, knowing that Okami would be getting a title shot and that business sense would tell you that you should put your next contender on TV in order to increase exposure. UFC determined that this fight was so boring that even if Okami were getting a title shot, they thought this would HURT his exposure more than help it. Everyone pray that Silva defeats Leites because if we get Leites vs. Okami, well there is no way that it would main event a PPV but if it did, it would do less buys than the next TNA PPV.

Reports indicate that Wanderlei Silva will move down to Middleweight

Well, Silva made a career out of beating 185 guys so this might not be such a bad move. It instantly adds a big name to the division and if he can get two or three good wins, Silva vs. Silva, while likely getting Wanderlei killed, could be the biggest fight in the recent Middleweight history in terms of a buyrate. If Wanderlei loses to someone he's not supposed to lose to though, it could spell the end of the line for the dominant Silva we're used to seeing. In the fight against Jackson, he didn't look as aggressive as he usually does and while I can sort of understand that because his chin just doesn't suit his aggressive style anymore, it just looked funny. I respect that Wanderlei is trying to change his game but some things you just can't change. When you're known for being aggressive and you try and turn technical, it's probably not going to do you much good depending on your opponent.

A move to Middleweight could provide a fresh start for Silva. As I mentioned, he's probably the biggest draw in the division, even over Anderson Silva, and he provides fresh match ups for guys like Bisping, Franklin, and Henderson. If I were to book the Middleweight career of Silva, I would probably give him a relative mediocre opponent since it's been proven time and time again that fighters first cut at a new weight usually leads to a lackluster performance. After that, they might as well go ahead and start booking him against a top guy like Franklin, Henderson, or Bisping because there's no reason to risk him to a loss against someone like Nate Quarry, who isn't likely to challenge for the title anytime soon. So in the end, this is likely a good move for Wanderlei and the UFC but I hate it when guys decide to drop a weight class after one loss. Granted Silva has lost 4 out of his last 5 but one win at Light Heavyweight against a name opponent like Stephan Bonnar and everyone will believe the Wandy of old is back.

Studying Tape



KING MO~!

Taking Time Off

For the first time in over a year, I did not post a column because of a go-kart accident on Christmas Eve. Long story short: I flipped the go-kart trying to make a turn and ended up eating concrete. No concussion, no head/brain damage, no broken bones just a lot of scars and an aching body. I couldn't really move for a couple of days, much less use a computer and that was the reason of Larry Csonka covering for me on the UFC 92 coverage and Fact or Fiction and Randy Harrison covering for me with Cardio Freak. I thank them both for helping me out.



That picture was taken last week and I've healed nicely since then. Still not feeling 100% but feeling good enough to play the Wii I received for Christmas. At least I can dress myself now.

And apologies for this column being mainly recaps. I didn't want to chime in on news that is weeks old (this week was a pretty slow news week) but I always feel the need to give thoughts on events.

Overseas Training

Results from K-1/DREAM Fields Dynamite!!!:

-Ikuhisa Minowa def. Errol Zimmerman via submission (toe hold) in Round 1

-Daisuke Nakamura def. Hideo Tokoro via submission (armbar) in Round 1

-Andy Ologun def. Yukio Sakaguchi via KO in Round 1

-Bob Sapp def. Akihito Tanaka via KO in Round 1

-Semmy Schilt def. Siala Siliga via submission (triangle choke) in Round 1

-Hayato Sakurai def. Katsuyori Shibata via TKO in Round 1

-Mirko Filipovic def. Hong Man Choi via TKO in Round 1

-Melvin Manhoef def. Mark Hunt via KO in Round 1

-Shinya Aoki def. Eddie Alvarez via submission (heel hook) in Round 1

-Kiyoshi Tamura def. Kazushi Sakuraba via unanimous-decision

Short and sweet thoughts.

Bob Sapp vs. The Anime Cartoon Character was the greatest fight ever, topped off by Sapp's dance at the very end. Fights like this are why I love Japan. They mean nothing but purists like to scoff at the fights like they're important. It's Japan, stuff like this sells. It's fun and wacky and I love it. Now we must see Sapp vs. Kimbo Slice sometime in 2009. Two big black guys with a lot of power and weak chins. How can that not be awesome?

"Cro Cop" won so good for him. Choi has become pretty much irrelevant since his tumor and Mirko still didn't look like the Mirko of old. He was on his horse the whole fight but he did a good job chopping down Choi until Choi finally couldn't continue. Next up for Mirko: Giant Silva.

UFC just needs to sign Melvin Manhoef. He adds instant depth to the Middleweight division and a fight between him and Anderson Silva could be legendary. Silva has a nearly legendary chin and Manhoef just KOed Hunt and his legendary chin. Feed him a striker or two off the bat, pray he develops a sprawl and some submission defense to have a passable ground game, and watch the money roll in. Fans love big black guys who knock people out. Manhoef has that a personality to match.

Speaking of guys that need to be in the UFC, Shinya Aoki is just a monster on the ground. His striking is almost non-existent but he's a lot like Demian Maia where once he gets you on the ground, it's over. One Eddie Alvarez mistake and Aoki ended it. Oh yeah, Shinya Aoki is the new WAMMA Lightweight Champion. You care, right?

Tamura beat Sakuraba in a fight I could not stomach to watch because of how shot Sakuraba is and how much of a joke the fight was knowing that Tamura took the fight because of the condition Sakuraba was in. He won, he'll likely brag, it means nothing.

Not listed is the K-1 victory by Alistair Overeem over Badr Hari. I've been singing the praises of Overeem for a while now and reports are surfacing that he could be signing with UFC (and Affliction) very soon. I think drug testing could spell doom for Overeem but if he's legit, I think he could be a force in the UFC.

Results from Senguko Rebellion 2009:

Sengoku Lightweight Championship:
Satoru Kitaoka (24-8-9) defeated *Takanori Gomi (29-5) by heel hook (1:41-R1)
Sengoku Middleweight Championship:
Jorge Santiago (21-7) defeated *Kazuo Misaki (21-9-2) by rear naked choke (3:26-R5)
*Sanae Kikuta (28-6-3) defeated Hidehiko Yoshida (8-7-1) by split decision

*Muhammed Lawal (3-0) defeated Yukiya Naito (15-5-2) by TKO (3:54-R1)

*Antonio Silva (12-1) defeated Yoshihiro Nakao (7-2) by TKO (1:42-R1)

*Eiji Mitsuoka (15-6-2) defeated Sergey Golyaev (12-7) by armbar (4:22-R1)

*Mu Bae Choi (8-3) defeated Dave Herman (13-1) by TKO (2:22-R2)

*Maximo Blanco (2-1) defeated Seigo Inoue (5-6-1) by KO (0:38-R1)

*Hidetada Irie (4-3-2) defeated Minoru Kato (2-6) by TKO (4:21-R2)

Two top strikers get submitted by heel hooks in less than a week. Go figure. Gomi has never been world class on the ground so I'm wondering why he bothered to drag it down when Kitaoka had his arm. Hindsight is 20/20. I don't want to say that Gomi is finished because the moment you write off a fighter, they come back and prove you wrong. But since the Diaz fight, he just hasn't looked the same. He just needs to go back to fighting grapplers with mediocre striking. And how bad does it suck for Sengoku? Gomi lost to Golyaev, ruining their Gomi vs. Lightweight Grand Prix winner fight. They did the fight anyway and then Gomi lost that. The WVR poster boy is getting ripped right now.

Jorge Santiago has been a roll since being dropped by the UFC. Nine straight wins and all finishes. I think Masaki was winning the fight through four rounds thanks to multiple leg kicks but once Santiago took the fight to the ground in the fifth, Misaki seemed to have no answer. I guess he was just gassed out because he didn't even try to defend the rear naked choke. I wouldn't be shocked to see Santiago back in the UFC before the end of 2009.

Yoshida looked really good on the feet and really bad on his back. Unfortunately for him, he was on his back more than his feet. Nothing Sengoku tries seem to work out. They obviously wanted Yoshida to win and as has been the case during the entire WVR stint, their plans were screwed up. This company might be cursed.

Antonio Silva won, I hope the yen is good because he won't be back in America anytime soon. Shame too because he has a lot of potential that won't be highlighted in Japan. Golyaev lost, making Gomi's loss to him look a bit worse. Mitsuoka isn't a bad fighter but after just defeating Gomi, he's a fighter Golyaev should beat. Dave Herman lost. I laughed. Now maybe people will shut up about Herman being the next big thing at Heavyweight.

And finally, KING MO~! This man is the greatest fighter ever. From his entrance, to his fight, to his post-fight promos. He's awesome. KING MO must be in the UFC by the end of 2009 or I will riot.

AND IT'S ALL OVER~!

That does it for me folks. I'll be back in the groove next week. Take care everyone.

Cardio Freak Sources: Dave Meltzer and the Wrestling Observer, Bryan Alvarez and Figure Four Weekly, MMAWeekly, and MMAMania