The MMA Juggernaut 01.07.09: UFC Championship Plans

Posted by Jonathan Solomon on 01.07.2009

The opening Juggernaut of 2009 maps out the title pictures in the UFC along with projected championship defenses and fights to clear up the contenders. Who will be the kings of the cage to end 2009? Read on.

All odd numbers cannot be great luck, can they? Welcome back for another edition of The Juggernaut and it is indeed the first issue of the new year. It certainly seems like a year the last time we went nearly three weeks without a major show.

Last week, 411Mania's Matt McEwen completed his look at each UFC division and its title picture for the new year. Now, it is time for some Juggernaut predictions. This week, I will map out each division within the UFC and who will beat who to retain or become a new champion. Obviously there are only a few championship matches officially booked as of now so there will be some fantasy booking.

Just as a reminder, do you recall who began 2008 as champions? Randy Couture, Quinton Jackson, Anderson Silva, Matt Serra (GSP as interim) all held UFC gold in their respective weight classes. Due to Sean Sherk's positive steroid test, the lightweight championship was vacant. By the end of 2008, those championships concluded the year on the shoulder's of Brock Lesnar, Rashad Evans, Anderson Silva, Georges St. Pierre and B.J. Penn.

2008 saw several championship fights. The heavyweight championship (or the interim version) was on the line for three fights. The light heavyweight belt was contested in two fights. Anderson Silva successfully defended his middleweight strap twice. The welterweight gold was settled and St. Pierre became the undisputed champion in April, then defended the belt in August. After becoming lightweight champion in January, Penn defended the gold in May. Eleven championship fights in total in 2008.

Now, on to the predictions for each championship. Up first will be B.J. Penn's lightweight gold.

UFC Lightweight Championship
Reigning Champion: B.J. Penn
Confirmed Defenses: None
Top Contenders: Kenny Florian, Sean Sherk

The 155-pound belt has been and will continue to be "on ice" for quite some time. It was last defended on May 24th, 2008 at UFC 84. Chances are, it will be close to a year if not longer when it is defended next. Penn is fighting Georges St. Pierre for the UFC Welterweight Championship at the end of January. If Penn should win, he would be the first UFC champion to hold belts in the different weight classes at the same time (Dan Henderson did it in PRIDE). Such a situation would almost definitely cause a scheduling conflict later in 2008. Would Dana White ask Penn to drop one title? Possibly.

For the purposes of this column, I will predict Penn loses to GSP. Diego Sanchez will debut at 155-pounds in February to fight Joe Stevenson. The UFC could decide to match Florian and Sherk against one another if they think Penn won't be ready by the spring for a title defense. However, I expect Penn would be ready by May or June at the latest.

Projected Title FIght June or July: B.J. Penn vs. Kenny Florian

Such a fight is one I am eagerly anticipating. It would certainly be a war and whomever walked away winner would deserve it. As far as the next challenger, it depends on Sanchez and if/who Sean Sherk fights in the interim. It is tough to see Sherk sitting out for around eight or nine months waiting to challenge the winner. Would he finally accept a fight against Gray Maynard? Plus, where does the Clay Guida/Nate Diaz winner fit into all this?

Projected Challenger Fight June or July: Sean Sherk vs. Nate Diaz

This fight assumes Diaz defeats Guida at UFC 94 and does not take a lot of damage in the process. Other contenders surfacing may include Roger Huerta and Clay Guida, both coming off losses. Throw in Sanchez, Maynard and Tyson Griffin and there are plenty of challengers coming up the ladder.

Projected Title Fight November or December: Kenny Florian vs. Sean Sherk

Yes, right now, I would pick Kenny Florian to upset Penn if they were to fight in 2009. This also projects Sherk handing Diaz his first defeat inside the UFC. Although it may be a bit of a pipe dream to look for two lightweight championship fights in 2008, assuming nobody in the picture is injured, it could happen. As for Penn, he could get a rematch in 2010 at Kenny Florian and perhaps they could even build a season of The Ultimate Fighter out of it.



You can call him Champion


UFC Welterweight Championship
Reigning Champion: Georges St. Pierre
Confirmed Defenses: UFC 94, January 31st, vs. B.J. Penn
Top Contenders: Thiago Alves, Josh Koscheck, Jon Fitch, Hughes/Serra

At 170-pounds, St. PIerre is king. Arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter in existence, St. Pierre is in prime position to improve on that belief. He is set to main event the first BIG pay-per-view of the year when he defends the championship against B.J. Penn. As mentioned earlier, I already have GSP retaining in that fight. His next fight is all but official, with Thiago Alves acting as the top challenger.

Projected Title Fight August: GSP vs. Thiago Alves

Should this fight take place, it may be St. Pierre's biggest test to date. Alves is the same fighter who knocked out Karo Parisyan, Matt Hughes and beat Josh Koscheck like no other in 2008. Nevertheless, it is going to be extremely tough to pick against GSP. As for other potential challengers, it is interesting in that GSP has already defeated all of the other top challengers. He has beaten Matt Hughes, Matt Serra, Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch. He even has a win over Karo Parisyan. An interesting side story to check on is the developments (if there are any) of the status of EXC contracts. Jake Shields has expressed a desire to face the top talent at 170 and the UFC is where it's at. In any event, the long awaited battle between Hughes and Serra is expected for May (unless it is delayed for the billionth time). Fitch has a fight with Akihiro Gono coming up and Koscheck is the only fighter waiting for word on his next fight.

This is a tough pick because assuming Hughes and Fitch win their respective fights, where-to next? I doubt there is interest in a Fitch/Hughes fight. Perhaps they could match Fitch and Koscheck up to determine the next top contender. Even with a win over Serra, Hughes is not going to see a title fight in 2009.

Projected Challenger Fight August or September: Jon Fitch vs. Josh Koscheck

I am not so sure the winner of this fight would be ready for a title fight within three or four months. So it could be possible GSP's last title defense is in the summer. So, unlike Penn's projected terrible 2009, GSP continues to be king of the welterweights.






UFC Middleweight Championship


Dominance, indeed

Reigning Champion: Anderson Silva
Confirmed Defenses: (Likely) UFC 97, April 18th, vs. Thales Leites
Top Contenders: Yushin Okami, Michael Bisping, Patrick Cote

Just as GSP is king at 170, Anderson Silva is king at 185. Silva has held the championship since 2006 when he dominated Rich Franklin. Right now it looks like the first title defense of the new year for The Spider will take place in Montreal, Quebec, Canada in April against Thales Leites. Leites could pose a big threat due to the fact he is also a black belt in Brazilin Jiu-Jitsu. As recognized during the Travis Lutter fight, Silva had a slight weakness on the ground. Plus, there will be questions about Silva stemming from his lackluster performance in the Cote fight from October. Nevertheless, you cannot pick against Anderson Silva.

Patrick Cote says he expects to be back and ready to fight around June. Michael Bisping will be one of the coaches on the next TUF season so he will be tied up in filming and waiting to fight his opposing coach (rumored to be either Dan Henderson or Rich Franklin). Yushin Okami seems ready assuming the UFC even wants to book him in a main event.

On the other hand, many people are clamoring to see a SUPERFIGHT between Silva and GSP. You never know, but I would doubt it happens. So unless they are able to sign some star, it looks like Okami is the only guy standing.

Projected Title Fight September or October: Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami

Can you smell the money? No? Me neither. However, this may be a fight booked out of necessity because there are no other bodies available. If Cote is healthy by this time, it would not be a shock to see him get a rematch. His loss in October was due to injury so you know he has a bad taste in his mouth. In any event, while you never can say never (see Mir, Frank), Okami would never beat Anderson Silva.

Projected Challenger Fight August or September: Michael Bisping vs. Dan Henderson

Yes, this would be the conclusion of TUF9, set to begin airing on SpikeTV in April. The winner of this fight would almost certainly be guaranteed a title shot early in 2010.

Demian Maia is the dark horse candidate in all this although by all accounts, UFC brass is hesitant to stick Maia in a championship fight before he gets a few more fights under his belt. For that reason, I would expect Maia (if he does not lose) to get a shot at the belt in 2010. If Bisping can beat Henderson in the situation above, perhaps the UFC would run a gigantic soccer stadium with Bisping/Silva on top whenever the schedule permits.

As long as Silva does not shock the world and retire, he should be the first UFC champion to hold a title for three years in a single reign. Due to the fact we have two kings, we must see a GSP/Silva fight. We simply must!


Someone will have to pry the leather from his cold, dead...



UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
Reigning Champion: Rashad Evans
Confirmed Defenses: None
Top Contenders: Quinton Jackson

The premiere championship in UFC has been like a hot potato and most people would expect that act to continue. Right now, Quinton Jackson has stated his desire to have a rematch with Forrest Griffin before he gets a shot at the belt. If the UFC does book Rampage/Griffin II, the question becomes where does that leave Rampage if he loses again to the now former champion? Dana White has said he would love to see an Evans/Rampage fight. Also, if Lyoto Machida defeats Thiago Silva at UFC 94, he's a player in the mix to receive the next title shot.

A story to follow centers around Chuck Liddell and his quest to return to the top of the mountain. His next fight is rumored to be set for March in Ohio (and by the look of his reaction when Wanderlei Silva was knocked out, that fight may have been in the works) but his opponent is anything but. Keith Jardine is unlikely. Randy Couture is a no-go. We could see the Shogun Rua/Mark Coleman victor challenge Liddell.

This may be the trickiest division to protect with all of the talent in the mix.

Projected Title FightMay: Rashad Evans vs. Quinton Jackson

If Machida wins his fight in January, I still think the Rampage/Rashad fight is too good to pass up right now. I will also go with Shogun over Coleman which leads to this big fight.

Projected Challenger Fight March: Chuck Liddell vs. Shogun Rua

In the situations above, Rampage Jackson becomes a multiple-time UFC champion in defeating Rashad Evans. Also, Shogun Rua causes more people to assume The Iceman is on the way out with a submission victory. Nevertheless, Liddell still has one big fight later in the year but more on that later.

As for Wanderlei Silva, he is a tricky guy. You won't see him fight Liddell, Jardine, Griffin, Rampage, Shogun, Rashad, or in other words, none of the top contenders in the class. Possible fights in 2009 in my book could include Rich Franklin or why not a guy like Matt Hamill. If Franklin loses to Henderson earlier in the year, I would not mind seeing Franklin and Silva square off during the year.

Projected Challenger Fight May: Forrest Griffin vs. Keith Jardine

Sure Greg Jackson's fighters seem to have the key in big fights (well, besides Jardine's loss to Silva) wth wins over Forrest Griffin (2x) and Chuck Liddell (2x). This fight is booked to give Griffin a chance at a revenge victory over one of his losses. Assuming Griffin can dispose of Jardine in this situation, he is in line for a shot at the champion. However, the UFC is sick of delaying Machida's shot at the gold and pencil him in, in the fall for Rampage's first title defense. Machida gets a lot of flack for his style but the man his successful and deserves a shot at the gold if he is victorious at UFC 94.

Projected Title Fight September: Quinton Jackson vs. Lyoto Machida

This would be the final 205-title fight of the year in this plan with Griffin set to get the first shot in early 2010. However, the last big fight in the division is set for the 2009 finale. In regards to the final title fight, if Rampage is on his game it's tough to see him lose. Of course, Griffin defeated him and Machida seems to be a guy who can come up with a plan to beat anyone. Despite this, Jackson should walk through the majority of the year as champion.

Projected Challenger Fight December: Rashad Evans vs. Shogun Rua

This fight poses two great fighters against each other with the winner in prime position to receive a title shot (after Griffin) in 2010. But the championship may not be in play for another New Year's Eve spectacular as it was in 2008. It does seem as though Rampage may get the first crack at Evans and there is no doubt who the favorite would be in that fight. Then things get interesting if Rampage were to win because of the line of challengers. I have Machida getting the next title shot and in a fight between Jackson/Machida, I must go with Rampage.

As was the case in 2007, Quinton Jackson is on pace to have a terrific 2009 and complete the year as champion in the premiere division in the number one fighting company in the world.


Back on top of the world, and looking for the man they call Griffin.


UFC Heavyweight Championship
Reigning Champion: Brock Lesnar
Reigning interim-Champion: Frank Mir
Confirmed Defenses: Date/Location Unknown, Lesnar vs. Mir
Top Contenders: Couture/Nogueira, Gabriel Gonzaga

The heavyweight division has been on showcase in recent months with a version of a tournament to decide the undisputed champion. That 'tournament' will conclude around April or May when Brock Lesnar fights Frank Mir for the second time. In the meantime, Gabriel Gonzaga is reportedly set to fight Shane Carwin in March. The result with either set Gonzaga as even more of a top contender or provide the opportunity for Carwin to become a player.

The losers (so far) of the tournament are Randy Couture and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, to the surprise of many. Both men do not have any fights on schedule just yet. Rumors stated that Couture axed a potential fight with Chuck Liddell (Liddell did so, too) in the spring and desires to stay at heavyweight. Nogueira is coming off the first loss by stoppage of his career and probably will not be back in the cage until the summer. Many fans believe a fight pitting the two against each other is logical and since there does not appear to be a more sensical approach, consider it booked.

Projected Challenger Fight June: Randy Couture vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

At this point, Lesnar, Mir, Couture, Nogueira, Gonzaga, Carwin, Junior Dos Santos (earlier in the year) and Cain Velasquez (Fight Night 17) will all have one fight in the new year. The only heavyweight contenders without a fight at this point is Cheick Kongo and Heath Herring. For our sake of fantasy booking, we will go with Lesnar, Couture and Gonzaga in their respective fights. Plus, Dos Santos and Velasquez will win their fights.

With the big win, Randy Couture is granted a rematch with Brock Lesnar late in 2009.

Projected Challenger Fight October: Frank Mir vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
Projected Challenger Fight October: Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos
Projected Challenger Fight November: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Cheick Kongo

The fights above would shake the heavyweight division like an etch-a-sketch. By the end of the year, the UFC would have a clear undisputed champion (Lesnar or Couture), top contenders (Kongo, if he wins and Mir or Gonzaga) along with clear studs (Velasquez or Dos Santos) prepared to move up in 2010. Plus, depending on how things turn out, it would be possible we could see the rubber fight between Lesnar and Mir and those things always do great business. Of course, if Gabe Gonzaga steamrolls his way to another championship fight and Couture regains the belt, we could see Couture/Gonzaga II and for some reason, I don't see that one doing as good as other possibilities.

Projected Championship Fight December: Brock Lesnar vs. Randy Couture

Nevertheless, if you are only concerned with the current year, I do have Brock Lesnar retaining his championship throughout the year. Another kick in the face for all his haters out there, Lesnar would have avenged his only loss and beaten a legend for the second time.


Unless Goldberg shows up and spears Brock, he will be on top for a long time.



So there you have it, the champions to close out the year will be Kenny Florian, Georges St. Pierre, Anderson Silva, Quinton Jackson and Brock Lesnar in their respective weight classes. Any shocking picks? Certainly any fighter can win on any given day but who will be able to beat GSP, Silva & Brock when they complete 2009 with their gold?

Thanks for reading and I hope everyone is finding their MMA rest because in a few weeks, the storm picks up again. Lastly, stay tuned for 411's Fighter of the Year (2008) reveal, next week. Will it cause heads to turn? Along with all my picks, I guarantee it.