Cardio Freak MMA News Report 1.12.09: Ace in a Hollywood Hole

Posted by Jeremy Lambert on 01.12.2009

Cardio Freak is back with a preview of UFC 93. Will Dan Henderson finally lose by (T)KO? Can Rich Franklin keep the fight on the feet? Which "Shogun" will show up? Those answers and more inside. Plus news of Roger Huerta's future, the UFC spring schedule, and Hughes vs. Serra. All that and the latest news from around the MMA world. It's more noticeable than Rich Franklin's black eye, it's Cardio Freak on 411



Welcome back to Cardio Freak everyone. I am your trainer Jeremy ‘Just Killin Time In Between Fights' Lambert.

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UFC 93: "Top Middleweights at Light Heavyweight" Preview

UFC 93 from Ireland is easily one of the stronger overseas cards UFC has delivered. Rich Franklin vs. Dan Henderson is a fight many fans have wanted to see for years and Rua vs. Coleman is a rematch "Rua Hardcores" have wanted to see since their first encounter. Plus there's the UFC debut of Denis Kang and the potential slugfest between Lytle and Davis.

Rich Franklin vs. Dan Henderson

At one point in time, Rich Franklin and Dan Henderson were the top dogs in the Middleweight division. Then Anderson Silva came along. Now Franklin and Henderson are no longer the bridesmaids of the Middleweight division and instead are the flower girls of the Light Heavyweight division. That's right, this fight will take place at 205 and the winner will go on to coach on TUF9 for a season ending show down against Michael Bisping at 185. Make sense of that if you chose.

People have this perception about Franklin and Henderson that they're not very good because of their losses. People actually believe that Franklin and Henderson aren't as good as advertised because Franklin has two lopsided losses against Anderson Silva while Henderson has two losses as well, one to Quinton Jackson and the other to Silva. These guys don't suck. They were the cream of the crop in the Middleweight division, they just couldn't dethrone the champion. They're both like the Philadelphia Eagles of a few years ago. They're good, you can count on them to get to the title game, they just can't seem to win the title. Obviously the Eagles were playing different teams each year while Franklin and Henderson have failed to defeat the same person in three times but it's NFL Playoff season folks and I'm trying to work in a NFL reference. Cut me some slack.

On the feet, I would give a slight edge to Franklin. Dan Henderson's biggest strength is his wrestling but he often neglects that strength in favor of a stand up battle. He does this because he has power in both hands and he's never been knocked out. Henderson is very wild with his punches though and it really showed in the fight with Anderson Silva. Rich Franklin is more your technical striker. He mixes up his striking real well and throws in some kicks, ending the Matt Hamill fight with a body kick. Franklin also has power in his hands and could crack the chin of Henderson if he leaves himself open. Despite losing by TKO twice to Silva, Franklin has a solid chin on him. Solid enough to withstand the big right of Henderson? We shall see. Henderson will likely use his wild striking to get inside and clinch with Franklin, from there, "Ace" is in "Hendo's" world.

Henderson is a world-class Greco-Roman wrestler, which means he's very strong in the clinch, specifically over/unders and body locks. Fortunately for Franklin, Henderson's biggest strength isn't the plum clinch. Franklin showed improved takedown defense against Hamill but that's because Hamill didn't try to take him down as often as he probably should have. If Henderson wants to takedown Franklin, chances are he will.

On the ground it's all Henderson. He has the reputation of being a lay and pray fighter and it will likely precede him in this fight. If it goes to the ground with Henderson on top, expect him to do just enough to evade the referee standing them up and that's about it. Franklin will likely go for submissions off his back but Henderson has only been submitted thee times in his career, all by Brazilians with a black belt in jiu-jitsu. Franklin doesn't fit that bill.

"Decision Dan" was present in September at UFC 88 and expect him to be present this Saturday.

Official Prediction: Dan Henderson, Decision

Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Mark Coleman

In a rematch of their PRIDE fight in 2006, "Shogun" Rua and Coleman do battle again this Saturday. The last time they met, Coleman picked up the victory after Rua broke his arm trying to post to prevent a takedown. What ensued after that was mayhem. Coleman continued to act like he was going to hit Rua, despite being pulled away by the referee. Chute Box and Hammer House got into a brawl in the ring. Wanderlei Silva had his throat stomped on. Phil Baroni acted like an idiot who accomplished something. And in the locker room after the fight, Coleman acted like an idiot who accomplished something. The victory by Coleman was considered a fluke by many as plenty of people have tried posting to stop a takedown and rarely does their arm break. I wouldn't say it was a fluke victory, just more of a freak accident. A win is a win no matter how you pick it up.

Mark Coleman has fought one time since that fight, a loss to Fedor Emelianenko. Mauricio Rua has gone 4-1 since the broken arm with the only loss coming in his UFC debut against Forrest Griffin. Coleman hasn't fought since October 2006, Rua hasn't fought since September 2007. Coleman has aged and is now 44 while Rua, only 27, is coming off two major knee surgeries.

The "Shogun" Rua we saw against Forrest Griffin isn't the "Shogun" Rua we were all used to in PRIDE. He didn't look as explosive as he usual does, his striking was lethargic, he went to the ground more to rest than to fight, and he really let Forrest Griffin control things. If that "Shogun" shows up against Coleman, he could be in for a long night. Rua is the better striker and has submissions from the bottom but Coleman is relentless on the takedown and credited for the invention of ground and pound. Rua's takedown defense is rather mediocre so expect Coleman to take no part in stand up game and shoot immediately.

In the first fight when Coleman took it to the ground, Rua went for a triangle and a heel hook. Coleman was able to avoid them both. What Coleman couldn't avoid is the armbar courtesy of Fedor in his last fight. Look for Rua to keep a very active guard with Coleman on top and throw every submission in the book at Coleman. If Coleman can avoid the submissions, Rua could be in for a long 15 minutes on the bottom. I don't think he'll be able to avoid all the submissions though. Expect Rua to catch Coleman with some type of knee bar or heel hook in this fight. Those seem to be in season.

Official Prediction: Mauricio Rua, Submission (Heel Hook), Round One

Denis Kang vs. Alan Belcher

Highly touted Middleweight Denis Kang makes his UFC debut this Saturday. Kang is a PRIDE veteran who has gone through some tough times as of late, going 3-3 in his last six fights. He's won his last two fights though and is looking to make a good first impression to a new audience. Alan Belcher is no joke though. He's a very technical striker with power in his hands and feet.

Both of these guys seem to have mental issues though. They both have all the talent in the world but for some reason can't seem to win fights they should win based on their merit. Once Kang entered the top 10 in many ranking publications, he dropped back to back fights against Yoshihiro Akiyama and Gegard Mousasi. On the other side, Belcher dropped a fight against Jason Day, who has taking the fight on short notice.

Belcher is at his worst when the fight is being taken to him. Jason Day had a lot of success pushing forward and pressing the action. Kang's striking is good enough and powerful enough to do the same. Unfortunately for Kang, his chin has been cracked before and Belcher has the power to crack it again. Kang has a tendency to duck his head when he throws and when someone throws a jab. If Belcher can time it like Akiyama did, he could put Kang down with an uppercut.

Both guys are well versed on the ground but I don't think either have the skills to put the other away. In fact, I would be shocked if this fight hits the ground because I don't think Kang has a good enough shot or clinch trip to get Belcher down and I don't see Belcher trying to take the fight to the ground.

I think the fight stays on the feet and Belcher end up getting the TKO victory.

Official Prediction: Alan Belcher, TKO, Round Three

Rousimar Palhares vs. Jeremy Horn

That's right, Jeremy Horn hasn't retired yet. I just assume he's shooting for 100 wins and then he'll retire. Unfortunately for him, he's not going to be picking up many wins in the UFC.

This fight isn't stay on the feet very long so there's no reason to get into the striking. Palhares showed very little striking against Henderson, shooting at every opportunity he got. Horn's striking is what it is at this point in his career. He throws good combinations but he's never really shown any power.

Both guys are well versed in submissions and 8 years ago, I would give Horn the advantage. But Horn hasn't really shown the desire to be a fighter in the past couple of years and we all know that his training over the years is pretty much his actual fights. Palhares is the elite of the elite when it comes to jiu-jitsu. Once he gets the fight on the ground, whether on top or on the bottom, he'll be going for every submission in the book. Last year Palhares retired Ivan Salaverry, I wouldn't be shocked if Jeremy Horn finally retired after this fight.

Official Prediction: Rousimar Palhares, Submission (Armbar), Round One

Marcus Davis vs. Chris Lytle

We already know what we're getting in this fight. These two have already agreed to just go out there and bang it out for 15 minutes unless someone falls. Because of this agreement, expect the fight to win Fight of the Night honors or expect the winner to earn Knockout of the Night honors.

If Chris Lytle hopes to win this fight, he better hope to catch Davis early. In his fight against Paul Taylor, Lytle was completely gassed out by the end but ended up taking the decision regardless. If Lytle gasses out again, Davis will likely do what Taylor couldn't and that's put Lytle away. Both guys are good strikers but I think Davis has the advantage due to being quicker and having more power. Lytle has the reach advantage though so expect him to use the jab to keep Davis at bay the best he can. I think Davis will end up outworking him throughout the fight. He'll get in quick, make his mark, and be out. Like a one night stand where you don't bother staying after the sex because really, what's the point? I'll even make a kind of "outside the box" prediction and say that Lytle loses this fight via cut. Davis will catch him with an elbow as they break a clinch that will open up Lytle and after taking more punishment on the feet, the doctor will stop it. Find that prediction anywhere else. I dare you.

Official Prediction: Marcus Davis, TKO (Cut), Round Two

Wrap-Up

UFC 93 kicks off a three week period of great MMA events and if you're broke or cheap, chances are you'll be skipping this event in favor of Fedor vs. Arlovski or St. Pierre vs. Penn. Luckily for you, 411 has live coverage of the event so be sure to check that out. Despite likely doing the usual poor overseas buyrate, this is a strong overseas card and a great way to kick off the UFC year.

Playing to Your Strengths

Matt Hughes vs. Matt Serra will likely happen at UFC 98 in Las Vegas

I'm probably the only person remaining who is excited for this fight. Sure it's a year and a half late and the last time we saw them in the Octagon, Serra looked like a midget eating knees from St. Pierre and Hughes looked old and slow eating a knee from Thiago Alves. But I recapped an entire season of The Ultimate Fighter 6 damnit and I don't want my hard work to go to waste with no coaches fight. At the very least Serra and Hughes will have people interested in this fight by the time UFC 98 rolls around because we all know Serra is good for a number of sound bytes and Hughes, having an undeniable hatred for Serra, will likely deliver some good quotes as well. Better late than never, right?

As for the fight, this is exactly the fight Hughes needs to get back into the swing of things. The days of Matt Hughes as a dominating Welterweight are over. He's not old by my definition of the word but he's obviously one step behind the younger guys in today's MMA. His striking has never been great, his wrestling was more strength than technique, and his ground game was never world class. To think that Matt Hughes dominated one division for so long with really the same skills he posses now is a credit to just how hard Hughes worked and how far fighters have come. Matt Serra is not your Georges St. Pierre or Thiago Alves though. He's very small for Welterweight (unless he bulked up in his year off), his striking is more power than technique, his takedown defense isn't very good, and his jiu-jitsu hasn't translated to MMA as much as one may think. Matt Serra is still a good fighter but this is the type of guy who Matt Hughes used to dominate. Then again Rashad Evans is the type of guy who Chuck Liddell used to dominate and we all saw what happened there. Excuse me while I shed a couple of tears.

*Big Bother John's Note: Jeremy is still very upset that we traveled to Atlanta for his Birthday and he saw his favorite fighter laid out at the end of the night. He'll likely never get over it. He needs to quit being a little bitch about it.

And I'm back.

Now, where was I? Right, Matt Hughes should dominate Matt Serra. Quick takedown to start each round, good submission avoidance, and doing just enough work from the top to avoid the referee standing them up.

Dana White recently mentioned that Chuck Liddell will not fight at UFC 96 but will instead fight at UFC 97

So here's what the spring schedule is shaping up to be:

*UFC 96: Rashad Evans vs. Quinton Jackson and Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shane Carwin
*UFC 97: Anderson Silva vs. Thales Leites and Chuck Liddell vs. TBA. Unless Georges St. Pierre is able to compete on this card.
*UFC 98: Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir and Matt Hughes vs. Matt Serra

Pretty strong spring schedule for the UFC. Obviously these fights have yet to be confirmed by the UFC but based on the things I've heard, this is the direction UFC is going with things. The only one that could change is Jackson vs. Evans but if that doesn't take place at UFC 96, then that card seems to be a bit screwed. If the UFC 92 numbers are true (Dana White stated that the show did the biggest buyrate ever) then Jackson vs. Evans should do a huge number since over one million people saw Jackson brutally KO Silva and Evans impressively finishing Griffin. Putting Anderson Silva and Chuck Liddell on the same card is a smart move because it's obvious that UFC wants to establish Silva as a draw but he's never going to be a draw if he's fighting people that no one cares about. With Liddell on the card, it's going to do a good buyrate and those people will likely see Anderson Silva turn in another impressive performance. UFC 98 could potentially do the biggest buyrate in UFC history with Mir vs. Lesnar 2 as the headliner.

If the UFC 91 and 92 numbers are correct (both doing over 1 million buys) then UFC is going to have a big year on PPV folks. As long as they don't run into a lot of injuries to their top stars and they don't run too many PPVs so close together, UFC could easily do 500,000 buys or better for every US run PPV.

Edit: MMABay is reporting that Jackson vs. Evans will take place at UFC 100. Lets remember that MMABay also reported that Brock Lesnar was out of his UFC 91 fight against Randy Couture with an injury and the a few weeks later, reported that, "all the rumors that Lesnar is out of the fight are false" as if they didn't start the rumors. If Jackson vs. Evans does indeed take place at UFC 100 and not UFC 96, then I don't know who headlines that show. Possibly Sean Sherk vs. Kenny Florian.

Keith Jardine vs. Luis Cane could take place at UFC 97

Do you think Jardine regrets not taking the Liddell fight now? I don't want to count out Jardine against Cane but considering Jardine already defeated Liddell, that looks like a far better match up for him. For one, another win over Liddell does more for his career than a win over Cane and two, a loss to Liddell probably doesn't hurt him as much as a loss to Cane. For Jardine, this is just a bad match up. Cane is a very technical striker with a lot of power who can sit back and pick you apart or be aggressive and just destroy you. Considering Jardine's history against aggressive fighters, chances are Cane isn't going to sit back with Jardine.

This fight will be the coming out party for Luis Cane. The Sokoudjou fight opened some eyes but then people went back to resting their eyes on Cane because they just figured Sokoudjou gassed out more than anything. Keith Jardine is looked at as a real threat by many people. He holds wins over Forrest Griffin and Chuck Liddell and he got those wins before his training partner and UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Rashad Evans. Jardine's problem has never been talent; it always seems to be mental. Jardine is currently on a win-loss streak and I think Cane continues that streak at UFC 97.

Studying Tape



Will we see this "Shogun" on Saturday?

Sparring Session

Roger Huerta decided not to re-sign with the UFC in order to pursue an acting career

I'm not going to be one of those people who bashes Huerta for doing what he wants to do even though I do believe he's making a mistake. From what I've heard, Huerta is a bit of an egomaniac and a diva so knowing that, this move doesn't really shock me. Once he was on the cover of Sports Illustrated, he let the fame go to his head and wanted to be more Hollywood than fighter. But hey, if a guy wants to be an actor before a fighter, who am I to stop him? The Rock (do I have to call him Dwayne Johnson now?) got out of wrestling to pursue a career in Hollywood and it's worked out well for him thus far. Granted The Rock has charisma for days and was a proven draw in wrestling while people only seem to care about Huerta because he used to sleep on roofs but that's not the point. Right?

My favorite part about this whole interview is the following quote:

"I'm 25 years old. I see Chuck Liddell and Randy Couture and they didn't really hit their primes till their thirties."

Randy Couture only hit his prime in his thirties because he didn't start fighting until he was 30. Chuck Liddell was in his prime in his early thirties because fighters hadn't evolved to the level that they are at now. I think Couture and Liddell would kill to be 25 again with the skills they currently posses and the time to only get better. By the time Huerta refocuses on fighting, the sport could very well long pass him by. Don't forget that we really have no clue just how good Roger Huerta is. In his two toughest tests, he lost 5/6 rounds. If Huerta dedicated to himself to fighting for the next 10 years or so, there's no doubt he would be a champion. Instead he's moving on to movies and fighting will likely pass him by. On the bright side, Huerta can enjoy 30-second roles in direct to DVD movies. Maybe UFC will create a movie studio like WWE so instead of a 30 second role; he'll get a starring role in a direct to DVD movie.

James Irvin called out Wanderlei Silva in a recent interview and stated that he wanted to fight only the best

Seriously? James Irvin? The guy scores an eight second KO over Houston Alexander and now he thinks he's some world-beater. Dana White needs to call on his hired hitman to teach James Irvin what fighting a top fighter is all about. I'm of course talking about Lyoto Machida. Wouldn't that actually be great? If every time a fighter opened his mouth and said something stupid, Dana just immediately made him fight Machida. Can't you just imagine Dana White getting on the phone after reading some of these interviews and just yelling at Joe Silva, "GET ME……MACHIDA~!" I demand to see this happen in an upcoming Dana video blog.

The thing that stood out to me most though is that James Irvin said she he isn't afraid of Wanderlei Silva. Around the same time, Quinton Jackson came out and said that, "a lot of people in PRIDE were afraid of Wanderlei. I was never afraid of Wanderlei." Has Wanderlei Silva lost a psychological edge over his opponents? He's 1-4 in his last five fights and he was brutally knocked out in three of his four losses. Obviously it's not smart to count out a fighter because the moment you count someone out, they score a big victory that has you believing again but it doesn't seem like Wanderlei Silva is "The Axe Murderer" of old. People aren't afraid anymore. That might be even worse for opponents. If you're not afraid, you might not take things as serious as you should. You could possibly under train, believing your opponent isn't a threat. It happens all the time with some of the higher level fighters.

I hope James Irvin vs. Wanderlei Silva is the next fight for both men. It won't be. But I hope it is. And I hope Silva MURDER KILLS~! Irvin like he did against Jardine and then if Affliction is still around maybe they'll pay Irvin $100,000 because he's got an eight second win over Houston Alexander. Who am I kidding? Affliction won't be around.

Taking Time Off

I hope this season of 24 consists of Jack Bauer brutally killing Jake Delhomme. That's all I ask.

AND IT'S ALL OVER~!

That does it for me folks. Big week next week with a UFC 93 review and a preview of Affliction. Take care everyone.

Cardio Freak Sources: Dave Meltzer and the Wrestling Observer, Bryan Alvarez and Figure Four Weekly, MMAWeekly, and MMAMania