Hit the Mat 01.19.09: The 93rd Aftermath

Posted by Matt McEwen on 01.19.2009

On the heels of a solid, if unspectacular fight card Saturday night, there are a lot of questions to be asked and answered in the world of the UFC. 411’s Matt McEwen checks in with his thoughts on UFC 93 and looks at where UFC will head in the coming months!

While it may not have been the most exciting night in UFC history, Saturday night Dublin was at the very least interesting, and set up a lot of questions to be answered in the coming months. From Dan Henderson holding on to outpoint Rich Franklin in the main event, to Shogun Rua barely holding on to get the stoppage over the 44 year old Mark Coleman, it was a night of interesting results. Add in some intriguing fight announcements, and I end up with a fair bit to talk about.

First, the aftermath of the main event. We know exactly where Henderson is heading in the immediate future. His victory assured him a spot as the US coach on the coming season of TUF and, more importantly, a likely #1 contender match up against his British counterpart, Michael Bisping. I said last week that no matter who won out of Henderson and Franklin, they would easily handle Bisping. I still feel the same way about Franklin, as I think he would handle Bisping relatively easily, but now I'm not so sure about Henderson's chances. He was noticeably tiring in the second half of the fight, and had it been a title fight, I have little doubt that Franklin would have stopped him in the fourth. As it is, that break resulting from the inadvertent finger poke might have saved him from a late stoppage. With Bisping showing willingness to get on his bike and pedal in his decision victory over Chris Leben, I would have concerns about Henderson's ability to last out three rounds. With the winner of that fight likely to be one of the final challengers to Anderson Silva, I see little chance of Henderson – should he get by Bisping – doing even as well as he did in his previous title shot. Wrestling based fighters like Randy Couture have been able to fight well into their 40's based on their incredible dedication to cardio, which is something Henderson hasn't been showing, and as he edges towards 40, it's likely to be his downfall.

The unknowns coming out the fight are in regards to Franklin. He lost the fight on the scorecards, but certainly was not a beaten fighter (especially in the eyes of that drunk judge who scored it 30-27). He looked to be the much fresher fighter at the end and seemed to have the momentum needed to finish the fight...if he had enough time. Unlikely to move back down to 185lbs as he had shown reluctance to do so to coach on TUF if he had won, Franklin now also has an uncertain future at 205lbs. The loss to Henderson keeps him in the lower levels of contenders right now, and in a best case scenario he is 2-3 fights and probably at least 12 months away from a shot. Of course, given the strength of the division, there is certainly no guarantee that he would be able to put together a two or three fight win streak, though that is something that can be said about any of the top fifteen in the division right now. He is still a highly visible fighter, but right now it looks as if he is joining Matt Hughes, Chuck Liddell and Randy Couture as being one of the original batch of UFC stars now staring mortality in the eye.

Just ask Mark Coleman. The Hammer looked great in the opening two minutes of the semi main event, but that was about all the gas he had in his tank. Even though he lasted until 4:30 of the third – and I'll discuss the other side of that coin in a second – Coleman certainly did not look like a fighter who belongs in the UFC at this point. After his initial flurry, Coleman had little power to his punches as he stood flat footed and desperately lunged for takedowns. While the fight was actually pretty entertaining, it was more of a case of Rua fighting down to Coleman's level rather than Coleman putting on a great performance. I would have no objections to seeing an eventual rubber match, but outside of that, I can think of no practical usage for Coleman in the 205lb division. The cut had to be hard for him based on his age, his build and the fact that it was his first real cut in at least a decade. Even if the cut were not a factor, what would the likes of Griffin, Jackson, Machida, Liddell, Evans, Silva (Thiago or Wanderlei) or Jardine do to a one dimensional, two minute fighter like Coleman? It's time for Coleman to put down the hammer and enjoy his status as a pioneering legend in the sport.

The same might be true of his opponent on Saturday night, minus the pioneering legend part. Just 2 years ago, Rua was considered the best light heavyweight in the world and the crown jewel of the PRIDE acquisition. A lackluster debut against Forrest Griffin was excused by many due to his knee injury, but after his near disastrous showing against Coleman it is a legitimate question to ask how much Shogun has left. Major knee surgery can be a career changing event for athletes of any sport who compete at an elite level, let alone two in a row on an athlete who relies as much on mobility as a martial artist does. While there is a chance that a lot his problems Saturday were due more to his near year and a half layoff, it is hard at this point to say that Rua has – or will ever – recover his old form. Not only did the consecutive reconstructions keep him out of the Octagon for 16 months, it kept him out of the gym for much of that time as well. That is a long period of time to be away from training, and puts Rua behind the eight ball in terms of catching up to the pack. With an exhausted Coleman sitting in front of him from about two minutes into the fight on, it took Rua nearly the full 15 minutes to put his opponent away, and was in some danger of being finished himself throughout the fight. For a fighter who was considered an elite striker taking on an old man with a history of being KO'd, certainly not a great showing. He will have future chances to prove me wrong though.

His first chance will be at UFC 97 in Montreal with his long awaited match up with Chuck Liddell. Announced in the aftermath of his win, this will be Rua's highest profile appearance in the Octagon, as well as a chance to get his career somewhat back on track. A win over Liddell may not be what it once was at this point, but a good showing will go a long way to restoring Rua's status. Of course, if Rua has a showing anywhere near as bad as he did against Coleman, his UFC career could very well be over and Liddell will be on his way to final title run to cap off his career most likely. Liddell might have a leg up in the match, even barring Rua's bad showing. In his fight against Wanderlei Silva, Liddell helped to dispel the mystique that had surrounded the Chute Boxe camp for years, as Joe Rogan pointed out on commentary Saturday night. They are no longer unstoppable monsters, and since Liddell already beat the biggest - albeit former - star of the camp, Rua is not going to be an intimidating prospect for him.

The other fight announced Saturday night also has implications in the title picture of the light heavyweight division. The main event for UFC 96 was revealed as Quentin Jackson taking on Keith Jardine in a fight that on first sight is surprising and on second look makes a fair bit of sense. First, there is the always popular MMAth factor. Jackson is coming of a devastating KO of Wanderlei Silva, who in turn entered that match up coming off devastating KO of Jardine. MMAth says Jackson should destroy the man who was destroyed by the man he destroyed (read that back slowly…it actually makes sense), but in MMA, 1+1 does not always equal 2. The second factor are the title implications. Former champion Jackson was rumored to be Rashad Evans' first challenger, but that is obviously not the case now. In this fight with Jardine, he puts his status as a top contender on the line. A win and a title shot is his, while a loss likely puts him two or three good showings away in a stacked division. The more interesting side of the title equation might be what a win for Jardine would mean. Coming of a good win over Brandon Vera, a win over Jackson would certainly give him the inside track to title shot in the fall. The only problem with that is if Evans is still the champ at the time. Both are members of Greg Jackson's camp and it would be interesting to see if they would even accept a fight against each other, and if they did, who would no longer have Jackson in their corner.

And one last thing coming out of Saturday night's show - the Fight of the Night bonus was awarded to both the Rua/Coleman fight and the Marcus Davis/Chris Lytle fight. I have no problem with Rua/Coleman being awarded the bonus (though honestly, Franklin/Henderson was far and away the best fight of the night), but Davis and Lytle did not take part in a high level MMA fight, they took part in a relatively sloppy kickboxing fight. I have no problem if a fight takes place mostly on the feet, but I do have a problem when the fighters help each other up after knock downs and slips, give up potential dominant positions, and high five about stand ups. I can see the entertainment value in a stand up war, just not when both fighters agree before the fight to not take the fight to the ground.