411's MMA Roundtable Preview: UFC 94 - St. Pierre vs. Penn II

Posted by Ryan Seymour on 01.30.2009

Champion vs. Champion, Georges St. Pierre vs. BJ Penn, The biggest fight in UFC history. Lets not forget that 13-0 Lyoto Machida and 13-0 Thiago Silva are also fighting. This is 411’s UFC 94 Roundtable Preview.



WELCOME:
BJ Penn vs. Georges St. Pierre. This is the first time we have seen UFC champions fight against each other. Penn moves up to the welterweight division to try and become the first man to hold two titles simultaneously. Will BJ Penn create history or will GSP cement himself as one of the most unstoppable welterweights we have ever seen?

THE STAFF:

From the Good, the Bad and the Ugly, Scott Kuczkowski!

From the Verbal Submission, Chris Robinson!

The MMA Juggernaut, Jonathan Solomon!

The MMA Rankings Guru, Dustin James!

From Tapping out with T-Berg, Todd Bergman!

From The Past and The Future, Robert Steele!

The MMA Juggernaut, Dan Plunkett!

From Hit The Mat, Matt McEwen!

And finally, from The Ultimate eXperience, I am Ryan Seymour!

THE UNDERCARD::
Welterweight bout: Matt Arroyo vs. Dan Cramer

Scott Kuczkowski: Arroyo has looked pretty good when facing anyone not named Matt Brown. I don't even remember Cramer from the show, but he apparently lost to Credeur via heel hook. Though I think their experience levels are about the same, I predict Arroyo will be a little calmer this fight and will/should wait for the opportunity to sink in the submission. Cramer might surprise me here, but I don't see it happening.

Winner: Arroyo, Submission, Round 1.

Robinson: Holy crap. My first roundtable at 411Mania and I've been writing here for like 7 months. I am awful. So Dan Cramer makes his UFC debut against fellow TUF vet Matt Arroyo. Wow. Must be nice for Cramer to have his first pro fight be in the UFC. What do they see in this guy again? Oh that's right, according to UFC.com he's "aggressive, versatile, and competitive". If every fighter possessed those qualities, well, I mean, they'd be unstoppable right? Limitless potential! What a joke. Arroyo's not exactly a blue chipper either I guess.

Winner: Arroyo, Triangle Choke, Round 2

Jonathan Solomon: Cramer does not have a pro fight under his belt according to the UFC. Why is he here? Matt Arroyo is great on the ground and has some skills standing although Cramer may be better with his hands. Arroyo is the more experienced of the two fighters and Cramer is fighting to stay alive in the company so you cannot underestimate that.

Winner: Matt Arroyo, Submission, Round 1.

Dustin James: It's a battle of the former "Ultimate Fighter" cast members! Not only that, but it's Dan "Pretty Boy" Cramer's first official fight as a professional MMA fighter. Cramer showed potential on season 7 of "TUF", but ended up losing to Tim Credeur who's experience paid off in the fight. Arroyo was a member of season 6 of "TUF" and is coming off a loss to Matt Brown at "TUF 7 Finale" back in June. Arroyo really needs a win here if he wants to be brought back by the UFC. This is a tough fight to pick seeing as we haven't seen how much Cramer has improved since his stint on the show.

Winner: Matt Arroyo, Submission, Round 2

Todd Bergman: A questionable match up here for both of these former TUF alumni. Cramer is a "Pretty Boy" from American Top Team and Arroyo has "No Regard." I really don't know if Arroyo can take a punch or if Cramer can avoid a submission. So the fight plays out this way: Arroyo allows Cramer to take him down and submits him with an Armbar in the 1st round.

Winner: "No Regard" Arroyo, Submission, Round 1

b>Robert Steele: The experience level is fairly even, with Arroyo having just a slight advantage. Cramer is with American Top Team, who has turned out some impressive fighters. It's difficult to pick between two inexperienced fighters, but Cramer is about even with Arroyo on the ground (despite the hype to the contrary) and he seems better on his feet.

Winner: Dan Cramer, TKO, Round 1

Dan Plunkett: Arroyo competed on season six of The Ultimate Fighter, and has since gone 1-1 in the UFC, while Cramer was on season seven of The Ultimate Fighter. where he won two fights before losing to Tim Credeur by submission. I would give the advantage standing to Cramer, with the ground advantage going to Arroyo. With that expert analysis, I believe Cramer will be able to neutralize Arroyo's submission attempts, and have a considerable advantage standing.

Winner: Dan Cramer, TKO, Round 2

Matt McEwen: Odd that you get someone making their official pro debut in the UFC, but Cramer has TUF experience and put in good showings, so that's more of a technicality. Arroyo is a technically sound fighter who has come up short against better strikers. If I remember Cramer correctly, he has good stand up and decent power, so if he's able to defend himself well on the ground - or even better, defend the takedown - he should get his first pro win in this one.

Winner: Cramer, TKO, Round 2

Ryan Seymour: After seeing Matt Arroyo on The Ultimate Fighter 6, I thought he had a ton of potential. But that diminished a bit when Matt Brown dominated him for the second time in his short MMA carrier. Arroyo has been given Dan Cramer who was a contestant on The Ultimate Fighter 7. Cramer hasn't officially had a MMA fight and he is pitted up against Jiu-Jitsu specialist Matt Arroyo. I want Arroyo to win and I think once he gets it to the ground, Cramer's inexperience will lead to a submission win for Arroyo.

Winner: Matt Arroyo, Submission, Round 2

---

Light Heavyweight bout: Jake O'Brien vs. Christian Wellisch


Scott Kuczkowski: This should be the battle of the wet blanket wrestlers. The last time we saw O'Brien he was being decimated by Cain Valesquez while Wellisch was last mauled by Shane Crawin. I'm hoping this doesn't turn into a stalemate andI hope both fighters have worked their hands in the hopes of keeping this fight entertaining. Neither fighter's record allows me to gauge who has an advantage here, so I'm going to pick Wellisch via decision if the judges can stay awake for that long.

Winner: Wellisch, Decision.

Robinson: It's the two guys who lost to Carwin and Velasquez. Woo friggin' hoo. Basically this boils down to who's getting fired after the fight. O'Brien does have a victory over Heath Herring, but hey, we all get lucky sometimes. These guys are both super low on the heavyweight totem pole, and I hope that doesn't offend any Native American fighters that might be reading. Can you feel my enthusiasm for this fight?

Winner: Wellisch, TKO, Round 1

Jonathan Solomon: Jake O'Brien is back after suffering defeats last year to Andrei Arlovski and Cain Velasquez. Now he finds himself fighting to stay alive in the UFC perhaps. Christian Wellisch lost to Shane Carwin in his only fight last year, losing by knockout early in the opening round. Both men will be cutting down to 205 for this fight to try and rejuvenate their UFC careers. I expect the weight cut will have a negative effect on at least one of these men. Wellisch has more skills on the ground but O'Brien is a solid wrestler with some power so the ground and pound is always nearby. O'Brien may be able to push the pace with some boxing but once the fight goes to the ground, Wellisch should be more comfortable at working off his back and able to lock on a submission.

Winner: Christian Wellisch, Submission, Round 2.

Dustin James: Christian Wellisch went from UFC fighter, to unemployed, to UFC fighter all in about the span of two days. It seems that his management team has worked things out with the UFC, otherwise why the hell would we see him back with the company? Oh, that's right. The UFC still has a little bit of hope for Jake O'Brien (even though he has suffered back-to-back losses to Andrei Arlovski and Cain Velasquez). This one just reeks of an O'Brien KO. And let's face it, the guy needs it.

Winner: Jake O'Brien, KO, Round 1

Todd Bergman: Since I'm from Indiana, of course I'm going to take O'Brien in this fight. Jake should be able to control the fight where ever it goes and should be able to avoid Wellisch's submission attempts. It might be a boring one, but O'Brien will get the victory in the end.

Winner: "Irish" Jake O'Brien, Decision.

Robert Steele: This one is sure to be a slugfest at some point, but I have a feeling there is going to be a lot of feeling-out with nobody wanting to take a stiff punch early. Wait until the late second round before things get rolling. O'Brien has the more impressive pro record with losses only to Velasquez and Arlovski. That is hard to go against.

Winner: Jake O'Brien, TKO, Round 3

Dan Plunkett: UFC 94 is no exception to the evently (how is that not a word? Damn you squiggly read line!) loser leaves town fight. Both men are wrestlers at heart, and the fight will come down to who has the advantage there.

Winner: Jake O'Brien, Decision

Matt McEwen: The battle for employment. This is the lower reaches of the UFC's heavyweight division, and the loser here is likely done in the Octagon for a while. O'Brien probably has the better wrestling, but his advantage there is less than the disadvantage he has on their feet. He just lost to Wellisch's AKA teammate Cain Velazquez as well, which means he probably has a good game plan coming into this one.

Winner: Wellisch, TKO, Round 2

Ryan Seymour: This fight has to be a ‘loser leaves town fight'. O'Brien started of his UFC career impressively with a 3-0 start, even getting a win over "The Texas Crazy Horse" Heath Herring. But now he has lost his last two fights against Andrei Arlovski and Cain Velasquez. Christian Wellisch has a UFC record of 2-2 and is just coming of a brutal KO loss to Shane Carwin. Both are wrestlers, so we might see this fight stay on the feet. O'Brien should win because Wellisch to me looks like a very mediocre fighter.

Winner: Jake O'Brien, Decision

---

Welterweight bout: John Howard vs. Chris Wilson

Scott Kuczkowski: Chris Wilson has some great hands and actually looked good against Jon Fitch when they fought. Howard also has some impressive TKO victories, so this should be a good fight. Wilson looks to have the edge in experience and has faced a little tougher competition in the past, so I'm going to pick him for the win. This might also be the fight of the night if Mark Coleman doesn't show up.

Winner: Wilson, TKO, Round 2.

Robinson: A battle of two former IFL'ers is up next. It's like trying to get excited about two Double A baseball players facing off in a MLB Spring Training game. Yeah, I gots the baseball fever and it's only January! You see, undercard matches are on the undercard for a reason. Neither one of these guys is making an impact on the welterweight division anytime soon. Why not have them fight in the WEC....wait, scratch that. The only reason Wilson is still around is probably because he trains with Team Quest. As for Howard, um, yeah.

Winner: Wilson, Arm Bar Submission, Round 1

Jonathan Solomon: Howard makes his UFC debut after years of being active around the MMA community. Since 2007 he has gone 5-3 and he will take his 10-4 total record into the octagon. Most of his fights in the past have lasted into the second or third rounds so I would not expect to see him finish Wilson early, if at all. On the other hand, Chris Wilson is one of the hardest punchers in the division and is continuing his quest to bounce back from his decision loss to Jon Fitch last year. Wilson's punching power and his wrestling should be able to lead him to victory here.

Winner: Chris Wilson, Decision.

Dustin James: Man, I really hope Chris Wilson welcomes John Howard to the UFC with an ass kicking. Sorry, but the performances of Team Quest members Matt Lindland and Sokoudjou at Affliction "Day Of Reckoning" has left this Team Quest fan with a sour taste in my mouth. Wilson shouldn't have much of a problem with Howard if things go the way I think.

Winner: Chris Wilson, Decision

Todd Bergman: Chris Wilson will win this fight by taking down Howard and laying on him via the mandatory "Team Quest" decision victory. Howard is talented but he's up against a superior wrestler who will take him out of his game.

Winner: Chris Wilson, Decision.

Robert Steele: The Past and Future features a profile and interview with Chris Wilson this Saturday. This may make me a little biased on this one. The complexity with which Wilson describes different points of his striking impressed me. Howard, on the other hand, has shown improvement in his stand-up in the last few fights. Wilson said his strategy will be to keep his guard up. Wilson plans to "use [Howard's] aggressiveness against him and make him pay." In the end, Wilson's edge in stand-up seems greater than Howard's slight edge on the ground.

Winner: Chris Wilson, KO, Round 1

Dan Plunkett: Howard is making his UFC debut in this one, he has won three in a row with his last loss coming against Dan Miller. His opponent Chris Wilson is straight outta Team Quest, a camp which is looking to rebound after a poor showing at Affliction: Day of Reckoning. Wilson has the clear advantage wrestling, and I'm taking him in this one.

Winner: Chris Wilson, Decision

Matt McEwen: Wilson is tough enough that he could be a factor in the upper reaches of the stacked welterweight division, and Howard is making his debut in the Octagon and has lost in each of his fights against UFC level competition. Easy choice here.

Winner: Wilson, TKO, Round 1

Ryan Seymour: John Howard, former Australian Prime Minister………Oh wait wrong John Howard. This John Howard is making his UFC debut, I honestly have never heard of this fighter. Chris Wilson on the other hand is a warrior, Wilson made his UFC debut against Jon Fitch and was quite competitive against him. You have to go with the fighter with heart and desire over the complete unknown.

Winner: Chris Wilson, TKO, Round 1

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Lightweight bout: Thiago Tavares vs. Manvel Gamburyan


Scott Kuczkowski: A year ago folks were wondering who would be able to defeat Tavares while Gamburyan was on The Ultimate Fighter. Now they are facing each other in a bout that could determine who will stay with the UFC and who will walk away. Tavares will probably have the technical and speed advantage in this bout, but Gamburyan is hard to finish, even for someone as skilled as Nate Diaz. Gamburyan will most likely have the strength advantage, but his last fight demonstrated that he can be put to sleep by the right shot on the button. I think this fight will probably go the distance, but I think Gamburyan will out-work and out-point Tavares.

Winner: Gamburyan, Decision.

Robinson: Well if it isn't Manvel "The Anvel", or Manvel "The Pitbull" according to Sherdoggy Dog. Aren't there like eight other dudes with the nickname "The Pitbull"? Guess Armenians aren't known for their creativity. Gamburyan is facing off against Thiago "Can't Win A Fight If They Paid Me" Tavares. I'm pretty sure he gets paid after each fight so that nickname is just sad. Tavares has lost 3 of his last 4 four fights so he's lucky to still have a job. Gamburyan is still kicking around because he's a TUF alumni and there's always a warm feeling whenever Joe Silva sees one of the TUF boys. Personally, I despise anyone associated with Karo "The Flake" Paryisan, so I have to bet against "The Pitbull" here.

Winner: Tavares, Decision

Jonathan Solomon: This is an odd fight in the sense that both fighters have trained in Judo for the majority of their lives and have a loss in their most recent fight. Manny has not fought a lot in the UFC (only over three minutes of action since losing to Nate Diaz) so it's tough to judge how well his game has progressed since his days on TUF. Tavares is a good striker and you have to question if there will be any ill effects with Manny from the brutal KO he suffered against Rob Emerson. Whatever happens, hopefully we can see some judo throws (you could say the same in Manny's cousin's fight later in the night).

Winner: Thiago Tavares, Decision.

Dustin James: Speaking of guys who need a win. Ladies and gentlemen, I introduce you to Thiago Tavares. Tavares came into the UFC in 2007 with a perfect 10-0 record. Since then, he has gone 3-3 in the UFC and has lost 3 out of his last 4 fights. If Tavares drops this one it will be his third straight loss in the Octagon and I can't see the UFC keeping him around if that's the case. His opponent is Karo's cousin Manny Gamburyan. Since losing in the finals of "The Ultimate Fighter" season 5, Gamburyan has gone 2-1 in the UFC but is coming off a disappointing loss to Rob Emerson at UFC 87. I'd look for Manny to bounce back. Why? Because I always pick Tavares to win...and I'm tired of being let down.

Winner: Manny Gamburyan, Decision

Todd Bergman: Which Tavares will show up, and which Manny will show up? I'm not sure of the answer to either question. Thiago hasn't been the same since losing the Tyson Griffin fight, and Manny is coming off that brutal KO loss. The fight is going to come down to Thiago's ability to keep his distance from Manny. Short, hairy arms can't get around you if you use your jab and kicks. Tavares makes a statement in this fight and sends Manny home with another TKO loss. But don't worry Manny, the WEC will always have a place for you in their 145lbs division.

Winner: Thiago Tavares, TKO, Round 2

Robert Steele: Tavares has moved back to American Top Team after a recent slump. Gamburyan will be a slippery one and difficult for Tavares to take to the ground and submit. I think ATT will bring Tavares back to his old ways though and allow him to dominate the ground game. Gamburyan will do enough to battle it out and make it tough on Tavares.

Winner: Tavares, Unanimous Decision

Dan Plunkett: Gamburyan is an animal, he has very good judo, and he is very strong. I don't care how cliche the nickname is, this guy is a pitbull. Tavares has good stand up, and a very good ground game. I'm going with Gamburyan here, I think he's going to be more relentless than usual after that knockout loss to Rob Emerson.

Winner: Manvel Gamburyan, Decision

Matt McEwen: This is kind of a hard fight to call. Both guys like to work the ground game and go for submissions, and both have been the victims of highlight reel KO's in recent fights. Tavares has had a good long fight to get his legs back under him, but Gamburyan's beating is going to be fresh in his mind. Look for Tavares to be cooler and calmer, wait out the initial storm, then tap out a tired Gamburyan.

Winner: Tavares, Submission, Round 2

Ryan Seymour: This fight should be a very interesting, action packed lightweight fight. Don't let Tavares's recent fights fool you, he is interesting and well versatile fighter. His opponent is Manvel "The Anvil", a short lightweight who possess very strong power and incredible heel hooks. I expect this fight to be a three round war and one of the more exciting fights on the under card.

Winner: Manvel Gamburyan, Decision.

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Welterweight bout: Jon Fitch vs. Akihiro Gono


Scott Kuczkowski: Unless his opponent's name is George St. Pierre, I have a difficult time picking against Jon Fitch. Fitch has proven time and again that he is one of the top dogs in the welterweight division. While Gono is a game opponent, I don't see him bringing anything to the table that Fitch won't be able to handle. I look for Fitch to press the action and keep Gono off his gameplan.

Winner: Fitch, Decision.

Robinson: Anyone want to start taking bets that Jon Fitch will be wearing pink trunks and have a glass jaw in UFC Undisputed 2009? Anyone? So Mr. "Won't Sign My Likeness Away to My Lord and Master Mr. Dana White" is stuck on the undercard against Japanese stalwart Akihiro Gono. Gono is averaging one fight a year right now so it's good to see him getting it out of the way early this year. He's got a long 2009 ahead of him full of Wii games, drinking Japanese beer, hookers, playing Wii with hookers, you know... guy shit. Fitch should roll over Gono here because I believe Fitch can take anyone in the welterweight division whose initials aren't the same as the Garden State Parkway.

Winner: Fitch, Rear Naked Choke, Round 1

Jonathan Solomon: This will be Fitch's first fight since his honorable loss to GSP and the whole contract/licensing fiasco. Sure there are people who think Fitch being on the undercard is a punishment for that, but I disagree. In any event, Akihiro Gono has become my immediate favorite fighter on this show for the simple reason that he listed the famous Tsuyoshi Shinjyo (former MLB player, was overrated and fizzled out) as one of his heroes. That still won't change the fact that Fitch is a great wrestler and Gono is not. Fitch should be able to stand and trade with Gono, a kick boxer. Fitch will take the fight to the ground and end it. Perhaps Shinjyo can take up MMA and avenge this defeat.

Winner: Jon Fitch, TKO, Round 2.

Dustin James: Poor Jon Fitch. The widely regarded #2 welterweight in the world is forced to fight on the UFC 94 prelim card because the UFC higher-ups didn't think this fight was as good as some of the other ones. Are you kidding me? It's Jon Fitch and Akihiro Gono! As for who I'm picking to win the fight. You would have to be a fool to pick against Fitch right now. The man was on a 16-fight win streak before he lost to GSP after taking him to the distance. Tonight, at UFC 94...Fitch starts a new win streak.

Winner: Jon Fitch, Decision

Todd Bergman: So this is what happens when you cross the boss, apparently. I've never been a big Fitch fan even though he's from the great state of Indiana. I've always thought that he has beaten overrated talent and not done much in big fights. I mean he did call a timeout against Jeff Joslin back in the day. Anyway, Fitch will control the fight with his wrestling and win the decision victory and make mean faces in the camera afterwards.

Winner: Jon "Mean Face" Fitch, Decision.

Robert Steele: For me this is the easiest fight on the card to pick. Jon Fitch, being a top Welterweight in a stacked UFC division, would be on the main card with a better opponent. This seems obviously put together with the intention of Fitch getting a win back after losing to Georges St. Pierre. Gono is experienced enough that he should be able to go the distance against Fitch, who has won the majority of his fights by decision.

Winner: Jon Fitch, Unanimous Decision

Dan Plunkett: Fitch returns after being dominated by Georges St. Pierre at UFC 87, which shows you just how great GSP is. Fitch is a great wrestler and has a very good ground game, and this fight is his to lose.

Winner: Jon Fitch, Submission, Round 2

Ryan Seymour: DJ GOZMA is fighting against Jon Fitch on the under card, hopefully we get to see this fight some time during the broadcast. Jon Fitch was recently involved in the main event of UFC 87…..and now he is fighting on the undercard? That's what happens when you aren't in the good books with Mr. UFC president Dana White. Jon Fitch should win this, hopefully we will see some crazy antics by Akihiro Gono.

Winner: Jon Fitch, Submission, Round 1

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THE MAIN CARD::
Lightweight bout: Nate Diaz vs. Clay Guida

Scott Kuczkowski: Diaz has a ton of talent, but Guida is one of those guys that has a knack for frustrating TUF winners (see Mac Danzig). While I think Diaz will have more chances to submit Guida, I don't think he will be able to keep up with the pace Guida will set for three rounds. Unless Guida gets caught in a submission, I see him playing the spoiler and out-working Diaz for the decision victory.

Winner: Guida, Decision.

Robinson: My second most anticipated fight of the night is Nate Diaz and my FAVORITE long haired fighter, Clay Guida. For those who regularly read "The Verbal Submission" (cheap plug!), you should already know how I feel about "The Carpenter". Clay gets another crack at a TUF winner here, and I think he's bitten off more than he can chew. I want Nate Diaz to choke Clay Guida OUT. I want both middle fingers in the air, arms flexing, and then I want to see urine on Clay Guida's face before it's all said and done. I'm a twisted, twisted dude, but most importantly I want Nate Diaz to win this fight and win it fast. If that doesn't happen, expect Guida to employ the "Danzig Offensive", where he takes Nate down, and does virtually nothing for three rounds. Oh the excitement.

Winner: Diaz, Guillotine Choke, Round 2

Jonathan Solomon: An infinitely awesome fight on paper. Nate Diaz is never boring and do I really have to explain anything about Clay Guida? Diaz is a beast on the ground and could be looking to take the fight there as early as he can. Guida should look to do damage with his boxing and quick footwork. Guida should be able to avoid takedown attempts but Diaz should be able to get him down at some point. Once in the guard, Diaz is a submission artist and I am positive we will see him try for a bunch in this fight. Both men have an iron will and heart so unless there is a big knockout, I doubt we see this one end before it can get to the judges.

Winner: Nate Diaz, Decision.

Dustin James: If the main event of this PPV doesn't earn "Fight of the Night" honors, then this one surely will. The UFC is high on both guys here, and whoever wins could be considered a top contender in the UFC's lightweight division. Guida is coming off a win over another "Ultimate Fighter" winner in Mac Danzig and Danzig is no slouch. However, Guida will be facing off against Diaz, who has won his first five fights in the UFC. Diaz's strength is easily his submission game. That doesn't bode well for Guida seeing as he has been susceptible to submissions in the past. Can Diaz get Guida on the ground and submit him? If so, we may have to start talking about Diaz as a potential challenger to BJ Penn's title.

Winner: Nate Diaz, Decision

Todd Bergman: This was the second toughest fight to predict on this card. I wasn't impressed with Nate Diaz last time out, as I thought he lost the fight to Josh Neer, and of course Guida barely escaped Mac Danzig. With all that said, I saw Josh Neer throw Diaz around and I believe that Guida will do the same. Clay needs to use the same strategy that he did against Huerta except he needs to avoid the big knee. I think that in the end Guida will be too sweaty for Diaz to submit him. Guida takes it on points.

Winner: Clay Guida, Decision.

Robert Steele: Guida throws a nice tight jab, and he finds position on the ground very well. His takedowns are not the best I've seen, so he could wind up in trouble when trying to shoot. Diaz is another slippery fighter who sometimes finds submissions out of nowhere. As much as I like Guida, and as impressive as he was defeating the caliber of Mac Danzig in his last fight, I will go with the brown belt BJJ of Diaz.

Winner: Nate Diaz, Submission, Round 2

Dan Plunkett: If the St. Pierre-Penn fight doesn't live up to the hype in terms of fight quality, this will surely be the fight of the night. Diaz is very good on the ground, and has good stand-up. Guida is a good wrestler and will have the strength advantage here, so he'll be able to control where the fight takes place. This is a tough fight to pick, as I could see either man winning by decision or Diaz winning by submission. I guess I'll take the guy with more winning options.

Winner: Nate Diaz, Submission, Round 3

Matt McEwen: Diaz has succeeded every time the UFC has stepped up his level of competition, and he has a chance to keep that streak alive against the unstoppable cardio machine that is Guida. Diaz likely doesn't have the wrestling to keep Guida off of him - though his reach should delay the takedown as his jab could keep Guida at bay for a bit - but once they are on the ground, it's Diaz's fight to win. Guida keeps active enough on top to avoid stand ups, but not to finish. Diaz is great in looking for any opening given him while he's on his back and exploiting them for submissions, and this should be no different.

Winner: Nate Diaz, Submission, Round 3

Ryan Seymour: Lightweights are usually the most entertaining fighters to watch, this is no exception. Clay Guida has an intense pace that he follows through all three rounds, he has one of the best conditioning in the lightweight division. His opponent Nate Diaz is an ace on the ground, Diaz can pull out submissions out of nowhere. I think Guida is going to look for takedowns against Diaz, which in my opinion isn't the smartest move. Diaz is very good on his back and I think he will chalk up another submission victory in the winners column.

Winner: Nate Diaz, Submission, Round 3

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Welterweight bout: Karo Parisyan vs. Dong Hyun Kim


Scott Kuczkowski: Karo "The Decision" Parisyan versus Dong Hyun "Stun Gun" Kim. I'd like to predict that Kim will over power Karo and knock him out, but I don't think that will happen. I look for Kim to try and push the pace, but I think Karo's ability to slow down the action will frustrate Kim and cause him to make some mistakes. While I'm not predicting he'll finish Kim, I think Karo will suck the life out of him and the crowd and be handed a decision victory.

Winner: Parisyan, Decision.

Robinson: In the last five years, Karo Parisyan has finished only one of his fights, but has only BEEN finished by one opponent. So he's not completely boring, right? Combine that with his cocky attitude, apparent anxiety disorder, and this fight is sure to be a barn burner, right? RIGHT? Karo will always be stuck in the gatekeeper position of the UFC welterweight division and that's just where his judo loving ass belongs. In this fight, Dong Hyun Kim will attempt to go through that gate on a path to success in the UFC. I'm going to take the high road here and not mention the hilarity of being named "Dong". I'm a professional. I don't need to rely on penis jokes to get my points across. In the end, however, I expect Karo Parisyan to get completely dicked over in this fight.

Winner: Kim, Split Decision

Jonathan Solomon: Finally, we get to see this fight. It was postponed last year due to a last-minute Parisyan injury. Let's hope this fight can go down as planned now. Both are amazing Judo players and that aspect of this fight will be great to watch. This will be Parisyan's first fight back from injury and I do expect something from that to linger on. While Parisyan may have the advantage if he can stay on top if the fight goes to the ground, Kim should have the advantage if this turns into a kickboxing fight. Just as I was prepared to pick the last time this fight was scheduled, look for Kim to win with a finish.

Winner: Dong Hyun Kim, TKO, Round 2.

Dustin James: Here's another fight that's very interesting. The UFC is really high on both guys and the winner here could end up benefiting huge as the UFC needs some new challengers for St. Pierre in the welterweight division....assuming GSP defeats Penn of course. The UFC is planning on expanding to Korea soon and Dong Hyun Kim is HUGE in Korea. Kim is undefeated but he didn't look so good against Matt Brown at UFC 88. If he comes out looking like that, Karo may not have a problem with "Stun Gun". Of course we all know that the UFC LOVES them some Karo, so a win here may get people to start talking about Parisyan as a potential threat again.

Winner: Karo Parisyan, Decision

Todd Bergman: I really enjoy watching the "Stun Gun" fight but I just don't think that he is going to be able to beat Karo. Parisyan recently stated that he wanted to come out like a tractor in this fight. I'm hoping that he means strong and rolling over Kim, and not out of shape and slow. Much like any Karo fight, he will win on points.

Winner: Parisyan, Decision.

Robert Steele: By round three against Jason Tan, Dong Hyun Kim looked gassed. Karo Parisyan is a smart fighter and I think he will be able to control the pace. It will be the fighter who controls this one that will win it. I think that fighter will be Parisyan.

Winner: Karo Parisyan, Unanimous Decision

Dan Plunkett: Parisyan will bring the heat to Stun Gun and look to get back on the winning track to finally get him a title shot. This is a tough fight to pick a winner in, but one thing is nearly for certain: we will go to the judges scorecards.

Winner: Karo Parisyan, Decision

Matt McEwen: This fight will basically come down to what state of mind Parisyan is in. If he's focused and has trained well (always a big question), he is a class above Kim. Kim has power in his fists, but I can't see Parisyan wanting to test his own chin coming of his first KO loss. A motivated Parisyan should tap Kim out. An out of shape Parisyan is going to gas and get KO'd again. I say motivated Karo shows up.

Winner: Parisyan, Submission, Round 2

Ryan Seymour: Dong Hyun Kim is coming of a bit of a controversial win over Matt Brown. Kim is undefeated but Karo Parisyan is one of the op 6 or 7 welterweights in the UFC. Parisyan is going to keep his ‘gate keeper' labeling as he defeats Dong Hyun Kim and sends him to the under card of future UFC bouts.

Winner: Karo Parisyan, Decision.

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Light Heavyweight bout: Stephan Bonnar vs. Jon Jones


Scott Kuczkowski: This fight will provide the live audience with the chance to go to the bathroom and refresh their drinks. The fact that this fight made it to the main card is a testament to Dana's loyalty to TUF season 1 cast. Last I saw Bonnar he was testing positive for a banned substance. Jones is undefeated against fighters who suck. I'm going to pick Bonnar to win this because he's only the second guy that Jones has fought who (1) has more than 5 fights and (2) still has a winning record. Peanuts!! Get your fresh peanuts!!

Winner: Bonnar, TKO, Round 1.

Robinson: It's good to see Stephan Bonnar back again as he continues his run as the "Oates" to Forrest Griffin's "Hall". Stephan has finished his last two fights, and now that his injuries and steroid use appear to be over he might be relevant in the light heavyweight division someday. Unfortunately, he's being placed in a fight he can't win against the Martian Manhunter. It's a fight he cannot win. Seriously though, unless DC sues him, and they probably would, any nickname would be better than Jon "Bones" Jones. Get it!? It rhymes! HA! Jones is looking to stay undefeated, while Bonnar is probably hoping a win lands him a higher class of opponent. Perhaps the loser of Machida vs. Silva?

Winner:Bonnar, TKO via Strikes, Round 1

Jonathan Solomon: Jones is entering his second year as a professional fighter and has shown a tendency to do better on his feet with his boxing. Meanwhile, Stephan Bonnar is a veteran on the sport, has been in several wars and trains with Xtreme Couture. Jones could land some serious shots that change the tune of the fight but Bonnar should not become nervous. I have to go with the veteran here against the young rising stud.

Winner: Stephan Bonnar, TKO, Round 3.

Dustin James: Man, I almost forgot about Stephan Bonnar. It's been over a year since Bonnar last fought, so how much of an impact will that long lay off have on him? He's facing Jon Jones who exploded onto the UFC scene with an upset win over Andre Gusmao at UFC 87. Jones has yet to face a guy with the talent of Bonnar and barring some major cage rust, I can't see Jones beating him. Expect to see some "punches n' bunches" in this one.

Winner: Stephan Bonnar, Submission, Round 3

Todd Bergman: "The American Psycho" vs. "Bones." If you can't appreciate this match up then you have no business watching the sport of MMA. Jon Jones is no joke and will provide the fans with a great fight. Bonnar needs to be on his toes and throwing those accurate strikes or this fight will look like his encounter with Rashad Evans. However, inexperience will be Jones's downfall as he falls prey to a beautiful Kimura mid-way through the 3rd round.

Winner: Bonnar, Submission, Round 3

Robert Steele: Jones comes in undefeated. Bonnar comes in with losses only to big names: Machida, Evans, and Griffin (twice). With everything being equal I would give this one to Bonnar, but his injury which may have at the very least had an impact on his preparation for this fight leaves too many question marks. I'm going to pick big upset on this one.

Winner: Jon Jones, Unanimous Decision

Dan Plunkett: This is a very interesting fight, Jones has great wrestling, something which I'm sure Bonnar has trained for at Xtreme Couture. Bonnar should have the advantage striking and in submissions, but Jones' freakishly large reach may be somewhat hard for Bonnar to adjust to. Nevertheless, I think Bonnar's experience and ground game will get him the win.

Winner: Stephan Bonnar, Submission, Round 1

Matt McEwen: Bonnar makes his return from various injuries, and gets thrown into a "gotchya" kind of fight. Bonnar is intelligent to know that Jones won't be a cakewalk, but most fans don't know that. Jones is going to make the fight exciting - he's a little unorthodox, quite athletic and new enough to training that he's willing to try some crazy things. It would be a huge win if he pulled it off, but as long as the fight is exciting, it should be a good sign for both guys. It's a hard fight to call as you really don't know what you're going to get out of either guy at this point, but I'll go out on a limb and says Jones' ground game isn't on Bonnar's level yet, and a submission ends the darkhorse pick for fight of the night.

Winner: Bonnar, Submission, Round 2

Ryan Seymour: Bonnar is back, after over a year without fighting, Stephan Bonnar steps into the octagon to face undefeated Jon Jones. Jones is a unknown fighter going into this fight and a win would be huge for his carrer. Can Jones pull a "Dos Santos" type shock victory and leave all the people watching stunned? I say no.

Winner: Stephan Bonnar, TKO, Round 1

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Light Heavyweight bout: Lyoto Machida vs. Thiago Silva

Scott Kuczkowski: This is the fight I've been waiting to see for a while. Both fighters are undefeated. 8 of Machida's 13 wins have come from decision. 10 of Silva's wins have come via TKO. Obviously Machida is going to want to stick and move during this fight to score his shots and stay out of Silva's grasp. Silva for his part will want to push the ace and hammer Lyoto. If Silva can close the distance and stagger Machida, he will probably finish him. If Lyoto can remain elusive and drag the fight out for 3 rounds, he may be able to outpoint Silva. I think Silva is going to push Machida harder than other opponents and should be able to get the TKO victory if he doesn't gas out or get caught in a submission.

Winner: Silva, TKO, Round 3.

Robinson: Thiago Silva finishes fights and he finishes them quickly. Lyoto Machida is elusive. He does not often finish fights. He actually won a fight once by "TKO (Exhaustion)". What'd he put on a DVD compilation of all this other fights for the guy to watch? I still can't believe this guy holds a victory over BJ Penn? That's just EMBARRASSING. All jokes aside, I hope Thiago is the man to finally knock Machida out of title contention. He doesn't deserve to be anywhere close to a title shot with his boring, yet somehow effective style. I'd much rather see a potential fight between Silva and either Rampage or Evans. Hey Lyoto, I hear Chuck Norris has a fighting league that would fit your style much better. Go fight there, ya jerk!

Winner: Silva, KO, Round 1(JUST CHASE HIM DOWN AND PUNCH HIM!!! FOR THE LOVE OF TITO!!!)

Jonathan Solomon: This is a fight at 205 where the winner seems to be ready for a championship shot at Rashad Evans later in 2009. Depending on what happens in the Rampage/Jardin fight in March, the winner here may get the next title shot. Silva is on a roll in his career at 13-0 (4-0 in UFC) and the only man who recently came somewhat close to possibly beating him was Tomasz Drwal under two years ago. Meanwhile, everyone's favorite fighter, Lyoto Machida takes his own undefeated record into the octagon. His record stands at 13-0 (5-0 in UFC) as well. Unless Silva can take the fight to Machida, I do not see reason to pick against the man who has been able to strategize his way to wins against such competition as Tito Ortiz, B.J. Penn and Rich Franklin. Machida knows how to win and that will not end on this evening.

Winner: Lyoto Machida, Decision (SURPRISE).

Dustin James: This is another tough fight to pick, especially seeing as both fighters are undefeated. However, I remember Silva mentioning a few weeks back that he planned to push the action against Machida and won't let Machida "run the whole fight". That's exactly what Machida wants Silva to do. If Silva can't connect with a solid punch that puts Machida down, we may see the same ol Machida fight that we see all the time.

Winner: Lyoto Machida, Decision

Todd Bergman: I'm still not sure of the hype known as Thiago Silva. It's possible that I will find out about it after this fight but I HIGHLY doubt it. Machida is a whirling dervish inside the Octagon and will show everyone how impressive he is as a fighter. I don't think that Silva will be able to push the pace past the 3 min mark in the 1st round as his gas tank isn't environmentally friendly. Look for Machida to confuse Silva with leg kicks and head kicks and then stop him with strikes in the 2nd round.

Winner: "Dragon" Machida, TKO, Round 2

Robert Steele: Without St. Pierre and Penn, this could easily be a main event for any other show. Then again, Machida can be very boring to some of the mainstream audience. It's a tough one to call. Jeremy Lambert's Cardio Freak column this week has me sold. I think Machida will slow the pace, find an opportunity to take it to the ground, and likely do just enough to get the win. Look for winner vs. Evans/Jackson to be announced in the near future.

Winner: Lyoto Machida, Split Decision

Dan Plunkett: Lyoto Machida may just be the best light heavyweight in the world. He has a great ground game, great wrestling, and has the ability hit his opponent without getting hit himself. Silva is also very good on the ground, and also has good Muay Thai, but he is lacking a solid chokeslam defense as evidenced in his fight against Houston Alexander. Machida will no doubt exploit this fault in Silva's game and get the decision win, despite Thiago's aggression.

Winner: Lyoto Machida, Decision

Matt McEwen: This fight is not close on paper, and will not be close in the cage. Silva has good power, but seems way too open in his defense and too looping in his punches. The counter punching Machida should eat him alive. Silva's best chance of evening the playing field is to get the fight to the ground...only Machida is one of the better wrestlers in the division (if you don't believe me, just go look at his last few fights), and, even if he does get him down, Machida is a black belt in BJJ himself. If Silva comes in as aggressively as he usually does, he's going to force Machida to be exciting and surprise a lot of people.

Winner: Machida, TKO, Round 1

Ryan Seymour: Undefeated 13-0 Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida takes on undefeated 13-0 Thiago Silva. Lyoto's karate style has made him very illusive fighter, he has defeated such big names as Rich Franklin, BJ Penn, Stephan Bonnar and of course Tito Ortiz. You look at Thiago Silva's recent competition and it is not at the same level as Machida's. Silva was rocked in his last fight against Mendes, but he somehow managed to come out the victor. I think Lyoto Machida will make it 14-0 but I am hoping…just hoping this fight is entertaining.

Winner: Lyoto Machida, TKO, Round 2

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UFC WELTERWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP BOUT:
Georges St. Pierre vs. B.J. Penn

Scott Kuczkowski: This is the grudge match everyone has been waiting for (especially the lightweight title contenders). GSP will probably want to work his hands and low kicks to keep BJ at bay. I'm pretty sure he has a slight reach advantage over Penn. Penn will also want to work his hands and will probably use his jiu-jitsu to keep the fight on the feet and avoid the takedowns. If GSP is smart, he will score takedowns when possible and then just stand up to stay away from the submissions. I think GSP will be faster and stronger in this fight, which should give him the advantage wherever he chooses to take it. I don't think he can match flexibility or jiu-jitsu skill with BJ, but I do think he can outwork him. I think endurance will be key in this fight.

Winner: GSP, TKO, Round 3.

Robinson: This fight is my own personal wet dream. I have a nagging feeling it's not going to live up to the redonkulous amount of hype it's getting, but it should still be an incredible fight. I love watching GSP fight. I love watching BJ Penn fight. I think their first fight had a joke of an ending though because basically Georges won with some late takedowns in the third round. Also, BJ kinda, sorta gassed out. In a perfect world, BJ Penn wins here, goes on to defeat Kenny Florian, and then clears out any other stragglers in the lightweight division. In reality, I think GSP takes this fight into the later rounds, exposes BJ's gas tank, and goes on to face Anderson Silva by year's end. Either outcome is fine by me.

Winner: BJ Penn, TKO, Round 3

Jonathan Solomon: This is as intriguing a fight as you can have and it just so happens it is between two of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world. GSP may be the best pure athlete in the sport right now and his improved wrestling ability is now legendary. He is good or great in about every aspect of the fight game except when he is taking substantial punishment for a period of time. B.J. Penn is a great ground fighter and has tremendous stand-up skills. GSP's takedown defense is the stuff of masters so you have to expect Penn to stand up and attempt to pound GSP's face in. The question for Penn is whether his cardio is up to par or will we see a B.J. Penn who will be gassed by the 2nd or 3rd rounds. I expect Penn to be as ready as he can and therefore, I see Penn's punches/elbows/other strikes being the difference here. GSP will be hurt and then we'll see what he does in response. I would be amazed if Georges St. Pierre can not only out wrestle or work Penn on the ground, but if he has more effective boxing and muay thai skills.

Winner: Your New UFC Welterweight Champion is B.J. Penn, TKO, Round 3

Dustin James: What can I say about this fight that hasn't already been said? In my opinion BJ Penn has the advantage in the stand-up game, but St. Pierre's wrestling skills have improved significantly to the point that I can't see Penn doing much good against the heavier GSP on the ground. I fully expect this fight to live up to it's name and deliver some hardcore MMA goodness, despite the outcome.

Winner: Georges St. Pierre, Decision

Todd Bergman: The Fight Of The Year takes place in January. I'm pretty sure that the UFC wants GSP to win this fight and I will discuss all of this in my article this week. I think that the UFC's bias was evident with the Primetime show. With that said, if anyone knows how to beat GSP it's got to be BJ Penn. I believe that he won the first showdown and will do the same here. Penn will cause GSP to make a mistake on the ground in the 2nd round due to his awesome guard and he will get the Armbar submission and two belts to call his own. Kenny Florian, You're DEAD!

Winner: New Welterweight Champion BJ Penn, Submission, Round 2

Robert Steele: I'm sure this fight will fill up the comments section no matter who gets picked. B.J. Penn has improved since their last fight, but so has St. Pierre. St. Pierre is the complete package. If Penn upsets it will be due to a punch connecting right on the button. I think St. Pierre is too focused to let that happen; he'll shoot and control the fight on the ground.

Winner: Georges St. Pierre, Unanimous Decision

Dan Plunkett: This is going to be amazing. Two of the best fighters in the sports short history fighting it out in their primes to see who is better. I can't tell you how excited I am to see this, as there are no words adequate enough to describe it. Let's get down to it: St. Pierre has the wrestling advantage, Penn has the submission advantage, striking would probably go to Penn, though St. Pierre's kicks are better than BJ's because well, BJ doesn't really use kicks. You would have to give conditioning to St. Pierre, even though BJ's isn't as bad as everyone makes it out to be anymore. St. Pierre is better at ground and pound, and the last time BJ took GSP down, St. Pierre just bounced right back to his feet, something which BJ also did but he had to wait for an opening. St. Pierre should be able to overpower BJ in the clinch just as he did in their first fight, though BJ has worked on his Muay Thai between his fight with Sean Sherk and now. The only way I see BJ being finished by St. Pierre is if BJ tires out a la his second fight against Matt Hughes, which could happen i St. Pierre tires him in the clinch and while BJ is on his back. Though BJ's takedown defense is great, I don't see him being able to defend Georges takedowns, and I don't see him being able to take Georges down unless GSP tires, which I don't see happening unless BJ roughs him up well striking. BJ Penn is an incredible boxer, with that skill he possesses, I think he'll catch St. Pierre right on the equilibrium some time during the fight much like Matt Serra did, but I do not think St. Pierre will tap this time, which will force the referee to stop the fight.

Winner: "Baby" Jay Dee "BJ" "The Prodigy" Penn, TKO, Round 3

Matt McEwen: The biggest fight in UFC history? That's the kind of thing you can only really tell in hindsight, but it certainly going to be up there. Only I don't think it's going to be as close as their previous fight, which I didn't think was as close as a lot of people have made it out to be. The biggest question about Penn is how his cardio will be at 170lbs. If he's not in the best shape of his career, St. Pierre could very well run him into the ground. But it may not be a factor, because I have a hard time figuring how Penn, who couldn't avoid being taken down in their first fight, is going to keep St. Pierre off of him in this one. While Penn has the better hands, St. Pierre is stronger, faster and a much better wrestler now than they he was 3 years ago. And while Penn is dangerous on the ground, St. Pierre has shown excellent game planning in his recent fights. That game plan here is likely going to be to ground Penn, grind on him for two or three rounds, then go for the kill when he tires.

Winner: St. Pierre, TKO, Round 3

Ryan Seymour: This is the biggest fight in UFC history. Never before have we seen two current UFC champions fight each other. George St. Pierre has the advantage in the wrestling, but BJ Penn has very good jiu-jitsu and amazing dexterity. Standing this fight will be very even, GSP throws a lot of kicks and that makes his opponent off guard, BJ on the other hand is better with the boxing aspect of stand up fighting. If BJ Penn doesn't gas in the fight, then I think he will win. Sadly I think GSP better cardio will be the big difference, GSP wins this one in the fourth or fifth round, cementing his spot as one of the best welterweights in UFC history.

Winner: Georges St. Pierre, TKO, Round 4.