Hit the Mat 03.16.09: The Winner and NEW Light Heavyweight Champion

Posted by Matt McEwen on 03.16.2009

Two months is not too far away to start over-hyping Rashad Evans' first UFC Light Heavyweight defense. In the latest edition of Hit the Mat, 411’s Matt McEwen explains why Lyoto Machida will end the Light Heavyweight Title reign of Rashad Evans.


I usually like to cover new ground and avoid repeating myself, but in this case, the biggest and most interesting story of the week fight wise in MMA involves one of my favourite and most controversial subjects – Lyoto Machida.

When Rampage Jackson beat Keith Jardine (sidenote – to all the people who think Rampage wasn't impressive: shut up), he seemed to have lined up a May title shot at Rashad Evans. The two even got the hype off to a great start with an intense staredown/jaw jacking session post fight. Unfortunately though, it seems like it just wasn't meant to be right away, as injuries and the prospect of three big fights inside of five months have conspired to change those well laid plans and given Machida the first crack at Evans.

And while we are now in store for a solid two months of "Somebody's ‘O' must go" talk, here's my early prediction – two straight light heavyweight champions lose their titles in their first defense. Why you ask? Let me count the ways:

1. Wrestling

Yes, Evans is the better wrestler on paper. Yes, he was a good college wrestler. Yes, Machida has no actual wrestling pedigree. But look at their last few fights. Evans seems to have fallen in love with his counter striking to the point that he seems have given up any thoughts of early takedowns. I'm not criticizing….the gold belt around his waist shows that it has been working for him. But being out of practice with takedowns against someone like Machida, who has shown some of the best takedown defense in the sport, just might mean that whole aspect of the game is out the window.

Of course, Evans might want to avoid the ground because….

2. Jiu Jitsu

We have not seen a lot of it in his UFC showings so far, but Machida is a BJJ black belt and just about every fighter he has faced this side of Tito Ortiz has wanted to avoid the ground (though I could be forgetting some earlier fights, but really nothing comes to mind). So, on top of Machida's proficiency on the ground, add in that that the submission game is the least utilized (developed?) part of Evans' game. Even though Evans has stated that he wants a big submission to add to his highlight reel, it seems unlikely that Machida will be the victim.

Of course, Ortiz did also catch him with that triangle…

3. Striking

Evans has garnered the reputation – rightly or wrongly – of being a dynamic striker based on his highlight reel KO's of Sean Salmon and Chuck Liddell, along with his undeniable power. But here's the problem – Evans is a COUNTER STRIKER. He is not an Anderson Silva style, aggressive, take the fight to you striker, but he's actually more along the lines of Chuck Liddell in that he looks for openings and has looping punches and the power to make them count. Actually, that kind of makes it ironic that he put Liddell out, doesn't it? Either way, Evans will be a counter punching looking to hit the nearly unhittable Machida, who himself is a counter puncher of the highest degree.

I think this factor could end up deciding the pace of the fight, and I think it will be slow. Both guys are cautious fighters who look for a mistake to capitalize on…and rarely make one themselves.

Evans does have a decided advantage in the power department though. Even when he floored Thiago Silva in their fight, Machida used excellent combos to set up and deliver his power. The big question might be how much more power Evans has in relation to Silva. Silva landed some decent shots which didn't even phase Machida….can Evans do what Thiago can't?

For that matter, can Evans do what no one has been able to do? Can Evans beat Machida?

But, the reason that this fight is so interesting is that the reverse of that question works too. Evans doesn't have a loss on his record either, but does he seem anywhere near as unbeatable as Machida has?