411 Boxing Preview 07.18.09: Kotelnik vs. Khan
Posted by David M. Lee on 07.18.2009
Can the British star become world champion on Saturday?
When Breidis Prescott destroyed Amir Khan (20-1, 15 KOs) in Manchester last year, it appeared as though the British star's world title ambitions were nothing more than a fantasy. If you had told boxing fans at the time that ten months later, Khan would be challenging for a world title, at a higher weight class no less, you would have been laughed at. But here we are, ten months later, and yes Amir Khan is moving up in weight to challenge Andreas Kotelnik (31-2-1, 13 KOs) for the WBA light-welterweight title.
Boxing certainly is a funny sport. Many will complain and with good reason that this is an unwarranted title shot for the Bolton speed merchant. While this is probably true, boxing has always been kinder to those who have the ability to put bums on seats. And, love him or hate him, there is no questioning Khan's drawing power. He is a major attraction in Britain. So much so that this is the 22-year-old's fourth straight fight on pay-per-view in the UK. This has also been the subject of much controversy in Britain, with many arguing that Khan is not a PPV star yet. But if the shows weren't selling well, then Sky (the British network who screen Khan's fights) would not be putting Amir on PPV. Obviously Sky are happy with the numbers that the Khan shows are getting.
There is a popular perception that this fight is an easy route to a world title for Khan. Do not believe one word of this nonsense. Kotelnik may not be an exceptional boxer, but he is solid, strong, well-schooled and has the tools to teach the youngster a lesson. Like Khan, the Ukrainian is an Olympic silver-medalist (Sydney Olympics) who also lost in the finals to Cuban legend Mario Kindelan. Unlike Khan, he is a proven world class operator who has mixed it up with many of the top stars within his division. So far, Khan's best win has come against a faded, blown-up super-featherweight who was forced to box half-blind after the first round. That of course was Marco Antonio Barrera.
Kotelnik has a solid professional record. He's never been stopped and his two defeats (to Souleymane M'baye and Junior Witter) were deemed to be highly controversial. I did not see the first M'baye fight, although I did see their rematch (which ended in a draw) and thought Kotelnik was very unfortunate not to come away with the victory. I also thought he was unlucky not to snatch a victory from the awkward but talented Witter. So Kotelnik has yet to be decisively beaten and is coming off an eyebrow-raising victory over Argentinian Marcos Maidana, who became an overnight star last month thanks to his sensational stoppage victory over the highly-touted Victor Ortiz.
So make no mistake, Khan is up against it on Saturday night. The Bolton star does look to be a much improved fighter under the guidance of the world renowned Freddie Roach. Against Barrera, Khan gave his most mature performance yet. Yes Barrera was faded and naturally smaller than Khan, but many experts still predicted the Mexican legend would be too experienced and would ease to victory. Although the cut that Barrera received no doubt played a huge factor in his downfall, it did seem like he could not deal with the exceptional hand speed of Khan.
Kotelnik, most likely, will have similar problems on Saturday. For all his talents and ring-smarts, the 31-year-old is not the fastest boxer in the world and tends to plod when moving in. If Khan sticks to Roach's gameplan, the chances are that he will move too fast for the slow-footed Kotelnik and pick him off for twelve rounds. But I have my doubts that Khan can do this. He is still inexperienced at this level and question marks remain over his durability. Only three fights ago, Khan was blown away in 54 seconds by the unheralded Breidis Prescott. And, truth be told, the Colombian puncher has not looked anything special in his subsequent fights.
Even before the Prescott drubbing, the warning signs were there that Khan could be taken out in such fashion. He was dropped by natural super-featherweight Michael Gomez, a fighter who had seen better days. He was also on the verge of being stopped by Scotsman Willie Limond. This is most worrying. Limond, although technically sound, was not even considered a puncher at super-featherweight. At lightweight, he shouldn't have been able to crack an egg, yet he turned Khan's legs to jelly and was unlucky not to stop him. Please don't insult my intelligence by suggesting that Kotelnik, who is naturally stronger and a level above Limond, can not do something similar to Khan.
It may seem like I'm being on harsh on Khan and if that's the case then I apologize. In terms of natural talent, there are few prospects in the world, if any, that rival Khan. Freddie Roach certainly shares that view. "I do believe he is the best prospect in the world right now," stated Roach. But the key word in that sentence is "prospect". Is Khan really ready for the likes of Kotelnik at this stage? I'm not so sure. The Briton has the height and speed to keep Kotelnik on the outside and get a points victory. But there is a fragility in Khan's make-up that worries me immensely.
In fights as close as this, I usually go with the man who has proved himself at world-class, rather than the man who has yet to prove himself. I believe Kotelnik will start slowly and try to subdue the Khan onslaught by keeping a high-guard for the first few rounds. By the second-half of the contest, however, I expect Kotelnik to work his way into the contest and start winning rounds against a fading Khan. The accumulation of Kotelnik's sharp, accurate shots will start to show on Khan and by the tenth round I believe the Bolton youngster will be stopped for the second time in his career.
