The Blueprint: 09.21.09: Ghost Buster

Posted by Patrick Mullin on 09.21.2009

With “King” Arthur at 168, Kelly Pavlik reigns supreme atop the middleweight division. Who you gonna call? Oh yeah…I went there. Ray Parker Jr. can’t do anything about it either.

With "King" Arthur at 168, Kelly Pavlik reigns supreme atop the middleweight division. Who you gonna call? Oh yeah…I went there. Ray Parker Jr. can't do anything about it either.

Welcome back ladies and gents to The Blueprint. I know we've been on a short hiatus but let's face it, it's a hard job to break down the weaknesses of the very best fighters in the game and who can best exploit them for a win. This week our focus will be on THE middleweight champion of the world, Kelly "The Ghost" Pavlik.



1) Flat Feet - Perhaps the most glaring weakness Kelly Pavlik has is in his footwork. Kelly isn't a pretty fighter to watch by any means. Despite his height and reach, Kelly plods forward with his feet flat because at all times Kelly wants to be ready to throw power punches. This not only makes him slow, but it makes him very easy to hit because he won't be able to get out of harm's way fast enough. Bernard Hopkins showed Kelly Pavlik what happens when you try to just stalk and plod forward against a mobile guy. You never land the big shot you're looking for and you take quite a few in return.

In spite of this weakness being exposed against Bernard Hopkins, Pavlik continues to fight this way. In his comeback fight against Marco Antonio Rubio, Pavlik fought in exactly the same style that he's used for his whole career. He came straight forward with his feet flat looking to throw bombs with right crosses and left hooks. Maybe he did it because he knew the Rubio fight would be a walk over. Rubio is a tough guy who comes to fight but he's a natural junior middleweight and has a limited skill set. He was a perfect choice for Kelly to fight because he stands there to be hit rather than up on his toes boxing evasively.

2) Slow Starter - One of the most remembered parts of Kelly's first fight with Jermain Taylor was the second round of the bout. Taylor badly hurt Pavlik and knocked him down almost finishing him off. Taylor wasn't able to finish him off, and gassed out along the way allowing Pavlik to come on strong and stop Taylor in the middle portion of the fight. Kelly caught a break by Taylor not being able to finish him. Jermain isn't known as a great finisher and that allowed Kelly to survive an early onslaught and win.

Kelly has a great gas tank and has shown great resilience. However its not encouraging that in his biggest fights he usually falls behind early and is forced to rally to come back and win. He fell behind early against Bernard Hopkins but the old master was too tricky for Kelly to ever mount a comeback against. When fighting Jermain Taylor and almost being knocked out in the second round, he caught a break when the combination of a frantic pace and hard weight cut drained Taylor of his energy and Kelly rallied to stop him. Kelly can be taken advantage of early and against the wrong opponent it'll cost him his title.

3) Mental Aptitude - This is perhaps the most troubling of the weaknesses of Kelly Pavlik. Never once in a fight have I seen Kelly make adjustments necessary in a fight against a difficult opponent. When he couldn't find Bernard Hopkins fast enough to land on him he never changed things up. He didn't start boxing on the back foot or getting up on his toes to work behind a jab and make things difficult for Hopkins. He just kept coming forward looking to throw big shots only to eat a combination and not retaliate effectively. Each round of that fight looked exactly the same. Hopkins hit Pavlik and got out of Dodge before Pavlik could come back with anything for him.

If you want to say he was able to come back against Jermain Taylor, yeah he was able to make a great comeback. The problem there is he didn't fight differently at any point in the fight. Jermain Taylor cut a pace that he couldn't keep, and that allowed Pavlik to be more effective with each passing round. Why? Pavlik was in great shape and didn't have to struggle to make 160 pounds. Taylor wasn't in great shape and he blamed the cut to 160 pounds, but Taylor had a history of fading late in his fights anyway. They rematches at 168 pounds and Pavlik beat him, because Jermain was scared of Kelly's power. Again it was not because Pavlik made any adjustments.

I'm not saying Kelly Pavlik isn't a great fighter. He is. He's the best middleweight in the world as a matter of fact. He's also a guy with a very predictable style, and I question his cerebral capabilities in regards to the sweet science. But here's where Kelly has the advantage.

Who Can Beat Him?

The answer here is nobody. The middleweight division is the worst division in boxing today. The 160 pound division is so devoid of elite level talent that there really isn't a foreseeable threat to Kelly Pavlik's dominance. Arthur Abraham was really the only guy who would have been a competitive match up for Pavlik, but he's gone on to the greener pastures of 168 pounds and Showtime's Super Six tournament. The one guy who's recently moved up to 160 pounds, Paul Williams, is a perfect style match up for Kelly because he stands right in front of you throwing punches and isn't an elusive target.

So who's left at 160 pounds? Well Felix Sturm holds some trinket belt. Sturm however is a light hitter with a very basic 1-2 style that isn't going to trouble a heavy handed stalker. Giovanni Lorenzo? He just got beat by an elderly Raul Marquez so I can't really see him holding up well against a guy who can hit like Pavlik. There's nobody else. The middleweight division is a wasteland.

It's a sad set of circumstances really. When I was growing up the middleweight division had a plethora of talent. We had "Marvelous" Marvin Hagler, Thomas "Hitman" Hearns, Juan "Domingo" Roldan, Mustafa Hamsho, Frank "the Animal" Fletcher, John "The Beast" Mugabi, Mike "The Bodysnatcher" McCallum, Sumbu Kalambay, Michael "Second To" Nunn, James "Lights Out" Toney, Roy Jones Jr., and the rise of a guy named Bernard "The Executioner" Hopkins. The middleweight division used to be a point of pride in boxing. It housed either the best or most exciting fighters. It had guys who were as fast as the lightweights and could hit like heavyweights. Now it's a sick joke.