Fight Lover's Forum 11.05.09: Prediction? Cotto Wins Via Stoppage

Posted by A. Shakoor on 11.05.2009

Checkout this week's edition of Fight Lover'r Forum to see which round and why.



In last week's edition, I wrote about some outside the ring issues that could contribute to Manny's downfall on November 14th. The comments section was pretty lively afterward. I'll just briefly state: yes I'm a Manny fan, and yes, I think he'll lose. I'm an Oakland Raiders fan too, and I expect them to lose most of the rest of their games. I can look at things objectively as a fan, without becoming an emotional, irrational, groupie. Secondly, though I clearly understand that HBO's 24/7 is edited in a way to create drama, I don't think it's scripted like MTV's the The Hills, or like a professional wrestling program. I don't think Freddie Roach and Manny will take time out of training to rehearse, block, and act out a scene like what we saw with Roach interrupting the meeting with the politician. I think it was a true tense moment, and a rude display by Freddie Roach. I think there are issues with the camp for all of the reasons I published last week. But that's just an opinion, and I COULD BE WRONG. I'm no psychic.

But enough about last week. Let's get right to the boxing related reasons why I think Manny is in trouble.

This is our fight of the year. It's rare in boxing to have a "can't miss" boxing classic, and rarer still to have one between two elite fighters in their respective primes. Miguel Cotto is arguably the best welterweight in the world. His only loss is to a man who may have loaded his gloves to defeat him. Cotto defeated Shane Mosley in 2007 in a close but clear decision. He recently defeated the rugged Joshua Clottey in a tough, bloody battle and showed a lot of heart. Cotto is a complete fighter. He can be an aggressive slugger, or a slick boxer, depending on the opponent and the requirements of the situation. He has a good jab, excellent right-hand, and goes to the body like an absolute beast. Cotto will punch in combinations and utilize angles. Earlier in his career at 140, Cotto had a very suspect chin. However, since entering the welterweight division, Cotto has shown a solid chin against several very good punchers. I'm assuming it's because he was draining himself to make 140, and he now feels mentally and physically stronger. I don't see Manny stopping Miguel with one shot like he did to Ricky Hatton

Cotto also has an advantage in size. Cotto weighed 146 in his last fight against Clottey, so coming down one more pound won't affect him. Manny is taking the bigger risk. He's a naturally small guy. He weighed only 138 for his last bout against Hatton and 142 last December versus De La Hoya. I expect Manny to come in this fight at about 141 or 142, because he wants to maintain his speed and footwork. Pacquiao also trusts his power against bigger men. However, he'll have to hurt Cotto often, like he did Oscar, because Cotto has taken shots from bigger, stronger men, and not fallen. Manny, on the other hand, has never been hit as hard as he's going to be hit on November 14th.

Regarding some intangibles, our own Jonathan Yaghoubi has raised some good points about Cotto in a column posted on August 17th. Cotto may feel a tad disrespected about how he's being treated as the champion. We can all debate the merits of the treatment, but what matters is how Cotto feels and relates to his situation. He's defending his belt at a lower weight, and only receiving 35% of the purse. Also, Manny is regarded as the pound-for-pound king, and he will likely be favored by oddsmakers in this match against the bigger man. I can see a tough, proud guy like Cotto using all of this as added motivation going into the fight. Other than his belt, he really has nothing left to lose when you think about it. If Manny defeats him, ok he's just another man in Manny's path toward surreal greatness. Miguel can still defeat most anyone else at 147, and he would; just continuing on his Hall of Fame caliber career. I like Cotto in any analysis of intangibles.

One advantage Manny has is in the speed department. Manny's hand-speed is a sight to behold. Manny is aggressive, but rarely recklessly so. He's also has excellent movement. He's constantly in motion both laterally and front and back. As he says, "his legs are his blessing". Due to his aggressive nature and punch output, he does occasionally get caught with shots, but his chin is very good. He's been wobbled, but hasn't been stopped in ten years. You can tell when a good shot gets his attention though, because he'll grin, and raise both arms above his head, as he gathers himself before reengaging. This will be the toughest fight of Manny's career. You can argue that Oscar left too much of himself in the gym by coming in at 145, and perhaps Hatton was a mix of overrated and washed up. Cotto however, is a true elite fighter, at the proper weight, and in his prime.

The first few rounds of this fight will be very interesting. Manny will likely start out very aggressive to test Cotto's chin, and avoid getting into deep waters with the bigger man. Cotto will probably give the first round or two away as he gets used to Manny's manic rhythm. I expect him to take Manny's best single shot. However, if he gets stunned like he did against Judah, Manny has the speed, tenacity and power to finish him with a TKO. Also, Cotto has a very inexperienced trainer, so if things get a bit "hairy", I wonder if he'll be looking for answers that Mr. Santiago just can't provide. Cotto is an experience pro though, and seems to have a certain natural calm about him. He's also not above giving a shot to the nuts to slow things down, if he's getting overwhelmed. He's a true vet, and will use all the tricks; clean or dirty.

I think Cotto will use his boxing skills early and give movement of his own mixed with counter-punches. At some point he's going to land some blows on Manny, and then things will get interesting. Cotto will hit Manny harder than he's ever been hit. Cotto will also go to Manny's body something awful. I'm not sure how much Manny will be able to withstand Cotto's brutal body attack, which will surely slow him down. I expect both fighters to be hurt at some point in this fight, and one if not both will go down. If Cotto gets cut and gun-shy again, Manny won't let up like Clottey did. He'll try to go in for the kill. However, if Cotto can overcome the early onslaught, and stay cut-free, I think he'll counter-punch the hell out of Manny, and destroy the body of the smaller fighter. Once the hands come down to protect the body, the head of the tired Filipino will be exposed. As much as I hope to continue on this Pacquiao ride into epic dominance, I think he's picked the wrong guy at the wrong time. I like Cotto via 11th round stoppage.



Well, there you have it. Let me know what you think. I will not write about this fight in next week's column. I don't want to step on the extensive Roundtable we 411mania writers will be creating for you all. I can't freaken wait to see this fight. It will be truly epic. Also, I'll be writing about both fighters in my first FLF after the bout, and what it means for a certain fella that goes by the nickname of Money. See ya, and enjoy the big fight!