The Way I See It: 11.11.09: That Little Fight This Weekend

Posted by Joe Roche on 11.11.2009

Joe Roche tells you why Manny Pacquiao's quest for history can't hold a candle to Miguel Cotto's motivation on Saturday night.

On Saturday night Manny Pacquiao will attempt to make history by becoming the first boxer to ever win a world championship in seven different weight classes. The feat would be so impressive that Dan Rafael of ESPN actually asked Miguel Cotto in a media conference call how he felt about the accomplishment – causing my perception of what is appropriate to ask on a conference call to spring out of control and crash into the sun. The back story for how important this bout is historically for Pacquiao has been done to death – the real question is how important historically is this bout for the guy who actually has the WBO welterweight championship, Miguel Cotto?

The Way I See It: Had you asked most boxing pundits/writers/fans to rank Miguel Cotto on July 25, 2008 you may very well have found that most people ranked him as the top (or #2) welterweight in the world. Those numbers are a bit skewed because Manny Pacquiao had yet to fight above 135 pounds, and Floyd Mayweather Jr. was coming off a Wrestlemania appearance and was well into his "retirement." However with wins over Shane Mosley, Zab Judah, Carlos Quintana and Alfonso Gomez among others Cotto had put together an impressive resume and shown a willingness to fight (and beat) the very best competition available to him (more then can be said about some other highly rated welterweights).

By July 27, 2008 many boxing pundits/writers/fans had written Miguel Cotto off. It happened that quickly. One bad night, one difficult fight, one admittedly brutal beating at the hands (wrapped or not) of Antonio Margarito had left everyone wondering if we'd ever see Cotto the same again.

After his brutal 11th round TKO at the hands of the "Tijuana Tornado" people started to forget about Miguel Cotto. "Sugar" Shane Mosley came out and handled Margarito deftly with superior speed, power and boxing skills. Pacquiao blitzed Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton, Andre Berto exploded onto the scene and Mayweather came out of retirement and delivered a lopsided, textbook beating of Juan Manuel Marquez. Cotto went from the cream of the crop, to one of many in a stacked division. His victory over Michael Jennings convinced everyone that Cotto hadn't slipped to an "also ran" but when he struggled mightily with Joshua Clottey there were many who felt that Cotto had lost something against Margarito that he simply couldn't get back.

So while Pacquiao fights for his legacy and history, Cotto is fighting for his career.



That might seem a bit outlandish to you but think about this for a second – where does Miguel Cotto go if he loses to Manny Pacquiao? If Pacquiao were to lose to Cotto there are a number of different avenues for him – he can drop back down in weight to 140, or 135 both weights where he has beaten champions before. Pacquiao could also ask for a re-match with Cotto, or pick any one of the welterweights I just listed and fight them. Remember Pacquiao is a draw, so there will be options for him. Cotto isn't in the same boat, and his situation is a bit unprecedented because the last two fighters that Pacquiao moved up to face retired immediately after losing to "Pac-Man."

If Cotto loses it will make the third difficult fight for him in his last four – a percentage that most fighters would shudder to think of, and a sign that many people will point to to strengthen their argument that Cotto's best days are behind him. None of the listed welterweights Mosley/Berto or Mayweather would fight Cotto because there would be very little incentive to fight him after he lost to Pacquiao, and whichever fighter loses the Berto/Mosley fight would have little drawing power to make an attractive fight with Cotto.

To be sure there would be names out there for Cotto to fight but none of them are very interesting and many of them have already lost to Cotto. Would there be any interest in a Joshua Clotty fight? How about Paulie Malignaggi, Carlos Quintana, Luis Collazo or Issac Hlatshwayo? Other then Collazo there isn't even an interesting fight in that group, and none of those fights would sell many tickets unless we're having the fight in Miguel Cotto's basement "Fight Club" style. The only fight that would have even a modicum of appeal would be a rematch with Margarito which is a fight I hope Cotto never gives to Margarito who shouldn't even be allowed to fight again, but probably will. While it may seem outlandish at first blush to think that Miguel Cotto is fighting for his career on Saturday night it's not that far from the realm of possibility and does it highlight precisely why Cotto has been so obsessed with Pacquiao since the moment this fight was signed.

If Cotto can put the whole package together on Saturday night and up-end the pound for pound king there will be doors open to Miguel Cotto in places that he didn't believe had doors. If the fight is competitive (or even if it's not) there will immediately be talks of Cotto/Pacquiao II although this time the fight will be easier to market, and Cotto will have a much bigger slice of the pie at the table. Aside from Pacquiao the phone will ring off the hook for the chance to fill out Cotto's dance card on Puerto Rican Independence Day in Madison Square Garden. You don't think MSG would come alive with Cotto-Mayweather? Can you even begin to imagine the buys that Mayweather could generate for that fight? I hate to get away from myself but wouldn't Bob Arum make a mint if he could put Cotto/Mayweather alongside Lopez/Gamboa and a Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. fight on Puerto Rican Independence Day? Now there is a card that would generate heat – and it's also a card that will never happen if Cotto loses on Saturday night.

I think a lot of what I'm saying seems far-fetched for people but I don't think Miguel Cotto thinks it's that far of a reach. Cotto has trained longer for this fight then I've ever heard of someone training. He has a Manny Pacquiao heavy bag, and he is eating, sleeping, drinking, dreaming Pac-Man. Miguel Cotto knows this is his one and only chance – and if he goes down like De La Hoya, or god-forbid Hatton then the days of Miguel Cotto having big money fights is over.

Which leads me to say it again – on Saturday night Pacquiao fights for a historical legacy but Miguel Cotto fights for his life. I'm not ready to make a prediction on the outcome of the fight but you have to think that if all things are equal when the bell rings at the MGM Grand, then that extra motivation may be enough to take Cotto over the top.

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The Way I See Bullet Points

- I've spent the week pouring over the Chad Dawson - Glen Johnson official scorecard from Saturday night desperately trying to figure out how two judges scored the fight 115-113 for Johnson, and I have yet to come up with an answer. One of the judge's wenty beyond the realm of possibility by scoring three of the first four rounds for "The Road Warrior" who was beaten to every punch looked slow, old and outclassed from the opening bell. The judge in question was the infamous Duane Ford. I have absolutely no idea what Duane Ford was looking at in the early rounds Saturday night but it wasn't the fight that was happening in the ring. Ford is one of those judge's who sets of alarm bells in every boxing fans head as soon as his name shows up on the HBO crawl and I hate to say it but he'll be ringside on Saturday night scoring Cotto-Pacquiao.

- 411mania.com was the first place to report on Kelly Pavlik returning to the ring on Oct. 19th to defend his middleweight title in his home state of Ohio, so kudos to Ramon for being on the frontline of that story. I have to say that this announcement completely ruins Pavlik for me. A little over a week ago he was telling everyone who would listen that he was practically KILLED by the staph infection that caused him to cancel his fight with Paul Williams. All of Team Pavlik had the wool pulled over the media's collective eyes with tales of puss oozing from his hand, and no training being done because Kelly couldn't make a fist. As soon as Paul Williams has a new dance partner for Dec. 5th Pavlik miraculously heals and signs on to fight a much lesser opponent in his home state? I hope that people don't let Pavlik get away with this crap -- as soon as the Williams fight was cancelled I wrote that I thought Pavlik's "staph infection is in his heart" and I still believe that. Pavlik had no desire to get in the ring with Paul Williams and he did everything he could to get out of that fight -- and he succeeded. It's crap like this that has hurt boxing so much recently, when the top fighters won't fight the best opposition we all lose, and Kelly Pavlik pulled a fast one on us all this past week.

- Kudos to Bob Arum for doing something different for the Pacquiao-Cotto card and televising some of the undercard fights for free on inDemand, cable systems, DirecTV and Dish Network. The free broadcast will run from 7-8:30 PM/EST and feature at least Matt Korobov and Rodrigo Garcia. You can't say Arum didn't learn anything from Dana White who has started broadcasting his undercard fights on SpikeTV before pay per views. It's a nice move to get a few more eyeballs on the card, plus it's a chance to get some of his young prospects on TV in a low risk situation (since they aren't a featured part of the evening).

- I have not had a chance to see David Haye win the WBA world heavyweight championship but I've heard that I didn't miss anything. Obviously I was in Hartford when the fight took place so I have a reason for missing what I called the "most important heavyweight championship fight ever." Lou DiBella said that he scored the fight for Valuev which shocked me because I didn't think there was any chance Haye would get a decision in Germany if the fight was close - I guess I was wrong. From all accounts John Ruiz looked much better on Saturday then he had in his previous fights so we can all start looking forward to Ruiz-Haye in the first part of 2010 next.

- I know this is a little inside but I wanted to take a second to thank the guys at Brener Zwikel & Associates for taking care of me on Saturday night at the XL Center. No need to go into details but they gave me a great hook up so that I was able to live tweet the event which went off pretty well. The XL Center gets a huge thumbs down for having a horrendously bad wireless network that was apparently powered by a hampster on a wheel because it kept cutting in and out all night long.

- The next fight that I'll be covering live will be Nov. 20th at the Twin River Event Center. That night "Irish" Joey McCreedy will be in action, as will 2008 U.S. Olympic team alternate Danny O'Connor and former URI football star Vladine Biosse. As always you can keep up with my coverage live on twitter (@411JRoche).

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The Way I See The Week Ahead

Friday, Novemeber 13, 2009
Location: Stroke-on-Trent, England
TV: None
- Matthew Hatton (37-4-1, 14 KO's) v. Lovemore Ndou (47-11-1, 31 KO's)

If Matthew Hatton is EVER going to be anything more then "Ricky's brother" he's going to have to win this fight.

Friday, November 13, 2009
Location" Las Vegas, NV
TV: Azteca America
- Mark Melligen (16-1-0, 12 KO's) v. Michael Rosales (24-3-0, 21 KO's)
- Z Gorres (30-2-2, 17 KO's) v. Luis Melendez (26-3-1, 21 KO's)

This is the Mandaley Bay show that 411mania.com will be sending representatives too so you can follow along with the action on Twitter (@411Boxing) if you don't get Azteca America. Gorres is a fun fighter to watch and has been in the ring with some very good competition, losing to Fernando Montiel (in 2007 when it still meant something), and fighting Vic Darchinyan to a draw in 2008.

Saturday, November 14, 2009
Location: Las Vegas, NV
TV: HBO pay per view (TV PICK OF THE WEEK)
- Manny Pacquiao (49-3-2, 37 KO's) v. Miguel Cotto (34-1-0, 27 KO's)
- Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (40-0-1, 30 KO's) v. Troy Rowland (25-2-0, 7 KO's)
- Daniel Santos (32-3-1, 23 KO's) v. Yuri Foreman (27-0-0, 8 KO's)
- Alfonso Gomez (20-4-2, 10 KO's) v. Jesus Soto Karass (24-3-3, 16 KO's)

Obviously this one needs no introduction - if you're reading this column you're already prepared to watch this fight. I have a lot of concerns about Cotto in this fight, he's coming off a brutal fight with Joshua Clottey where he suffered a very bad cut. If Pacquiao is able to open that cut up early I don't think it'll be a long night. Cotto isn't going to look foolish out there though - he's supremely talented, and very fast (just ask Shane Mosley). He's also the first "in his prime" fighter at a much higher weight class that Pacquiao has fought - a factor that shouldn't be overlooked. Much like the Ricky Hatton fight we're going to know how this one will play out pretty quickly - if Cotto can control the action and assert his power he could make it a tough night for Manny, but if Pacquiao is too quick and beats Cotto to the spot then he'll make quick work of the WBO welterweight champion.