411 Prizefight Roundtable Preview: Pacquiao vs. Cotto

Posted by Matt Knowles on 11.13.2009

The 411mania Fight Freaks weigh-in on their predictions for this weekend's "SuperFight" between two of the best boxers of our generation!

Welcome back to the Prizefight Preview – Roundtable Edition!




In the boxing world, the term "SuperFight" gets thrown around about once or twice a year. Many times, this label is unjustly applied to relatively good bouts put-on by uppity promoters. Other times, the match-up is great on paper, but the combatant's abilities don't blend well in the ring. On rare occasions, however, the encounter and its surrounding events go on to exceed our infinitely lofty expectations.

This Saturday night on HBO PPV, many of us Fight Freaks are expecting a bonafide "SuperFight" that will have us talking for weeks, as pound-for-pound juggernaut/6-division champion Manny "The PacMan" Pacquiao goes after a world-record 7th crown as he challenges WBO welterweight kingpin Miguel Cotto. When you combine the talent that each of these men possesses with their ferocity, will-to-win, and raucous fan support, you have what can be fairly labeled as a "SuperFight."

As always, we the 411mania Boxing Buffs have some strong opinions on the subject….and are not afraid to let you know about ‘em! This being said, let's get this Roundtable rockin'!!





1. With the bout taking place at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, which fighter do you believe will have the "home field advantage" in terms of crowd support when the opening bell rings?

Ali Shakoor - Tough call. I'm going to go with Manny Pacquiao. He's fought at the MGM Grand before, and has more crossover appeal at this time. He has a little more charisma and is better known to the less hardcore of us boxing fans. Plus, he's the 'David" facing "Goliath", so to speak.

Ramon Aranda - Easily this goes in Pacquiao's favor. Having covered a number of his fights in Las Vegas, he has a large amount of supporters that always come in droves. Cotto on the other hand fights mostly on the east coast where he has a larger Puerto Rican fanbase. This is Manny country and it'll show.

Ryan The Rhino - I don't think anyone will really have a home field advantage in this fight. One could argue that Manny would, considering that his last three victories have happened in my stomping grounds of Las Vegas. However, Vegas has been kind to Cotto as well, considering that eight of his victories on his rise to the top have happened in the 702 as well. This goes back to the question, "Has Cotto shaken off Margarito?" And I think his bout against Clottey has shown that he has.

As for crowd support, it will obviously be Manny. His Filipino fans will spend every last dime they have to support their national hero. Puerto Ricans, although just as fervent about their fighter, may not be able to justify the large expenditure of a trip to Las Vegas. Home field = null. Crowd support, however, is a "yea" for Manny.

Joe Roche -This one is easy - if the fight was at Madison Square Garden the home field advantage would be with Cotto, but in Las Vegas there are few fighters who will out draw Pacquiao. I was convinced that Pacquiao would be the "road" fighter against Hatton but the Filipino fans did a good job of drowning out the Hatton band and I don't think Cotto travels as well as Hatton did. I expect a very loud Filipino fanbase to support Pacquiao on Saturday night.

Jonathan Yaghoubi -I think it will no doubt be Manny Pacquiao with the home field advantage. In almost every fight Manny has fought in Las Vegas, he always has the crowd on his side. In his bout against De La Hoya, the support was over whelming for Manny. Chants of Manny, Manny, Manny will be ringing in people's ears before and during the fight. Pacman will raise his gloves signaling the start of the war.
Cotto will have his Boricua supporters who will be into as much as anyone. He just won't have as much as support as Manny. If this fight was in New York or anywhere in the east coast, I think Cotto would have it. But anywhere close to the Pacific Ocean, Manny will always rule.





2. Pacquiao has a habit of starting fights very fast, while Cotto is a notoriously slow starter. Do you expect this to be the case on Saturday, or will one/both fighters change their game-plan due to the volatility of this particular bout?

Ramon Aranda - Absolutely. I expect Manny to try and let Cotto know right off the bat that this is going to be a fight. I think Cotto will try to bide his time and counter early on just until he gets into a rhythm and figures out Manny's style. By about the 4th round (assuming it gets there), I expect a rain of punches to start falling.

Ryan The Rhino -My hunch is that Pacquiao will come out fast for the first couple of rounds, then cool off. The reason being is that Cotto has shown to tire in the championship rounds, where the last time we saw Manny go the distance, he showed that he can conserve energy for the final six to nine minutes. You may see Cotto using that slow start to his advantage, so he can also conserve energy should it go into deep waters.

Ali Shakoor - I certainly think Manny will start fast. He's gonna try to test Cotto's chin early and avoid getting in deep waters with the bigger man. Cotto will likely start slow, to get used to Manny's manic rhythm. However, I think it could be a nice strategy to go against type and start fast against Manny to give he and Freddie something they aren't expecting.

Joe Roche - I think this is pretty much what we should expect on Saturday. It'll be interesting how well Cotto weathers the storm and whether or not he can pull a Marquez and just stay in the fight for the first three or four rounds before settling in and winning the later rounds. The problem with fighting Pacquiao is that while he does come out like a house on fire early, his late fight "swoon" may not be an issue anymore - I mean Pacquiao was dominating De La Hoya late in their fight (although by the time it got late it wasn't much of a fight as much as it was a mugging) and we never saw Hatton go deep in the fight so we have no idea if Pacquiao can stay as strong late. For Cotto he has a habit of digging himself a hole but he's a warrior who won't get discouraged but I don't think either fighter will change their approach much.

Jonathan Yaghoubi -I don't expect Pacquiao's strategy to change much but Cotto could be a different story. Manny's endurance is as good as anyone's. The guy never tires at any time during a fight while going at a brutal pace. Cotto could be a little different and start a little quicker than usual. I think he is going to try to track Manny down to see if he really does have the power to compete with him. Miguel will try to establish his jab and will have success using it to catch Manny on the way in, and cut the ring off while using his trademark left hook to the body.





3. This will be Pacquiao's first bout against a prime, fully-fledged welterweight. How do you think he will be able to deal with Cotto's size and strength advantages?

Joe Roche - This is the biggest question. I think Pacquiao has a very good chin - he has been hit flush by some strong fighters and taken the shot pretty well. Pacquiao is vulnerable to being hit though and if Cotto is going to win it's going to be by hitting Pacquiao flush and putting him down.

Ali Shakoor - It will be the biggest challenge of this fight. Oscar was drained and old. Cotto is in his prime, and at the proper weight. He'll hit Manny harder than he's ever been hit. If Manny gets tired and spends too much time on the ropes, he's in trouble. Cotto will go to the body hard. Unless, Manny hurts Cotto early, he'll eventually get broken down.

Ryan The Rhino -Pacquiao is not the one-dimensional punching sensation that we all were first introduced to. He is now able to box just as well as punch. And as we know, speed can nullify strength. Look for Pacquiao to out-box Cotto (who also admittedly has stepped his boxing game up), get in, and do damage, especially on the ropes. Also, look for the uppercut, which Cotto leaves himself open to frequently.

Jonathan Yaghoubi -I think Manny will handle the size disadvantage very well. In my opinion, Pacquiao is too talented a fighter to let the small size difference be the deciding factor. He remains the most dynamic fighter on the planet. His unpredictability and constant movement makes it hard for any boxer to contend with- no matter how much talent they possess. Cotto will see punches from so many different angles that he has never seen before.

I think Manny dismissed all talk of being the smaller fighter in the De La Hoya. In a fight that he was the underdog in, he simply chopped De La Hoya into pieces and forced him into retirement. Oscar might not have had a lot left in the tank but it was still a tremendous win for Manny.

Ramon Aranda - Well that's the biggest question isn't it? De La Hoya was too weakened to make a dent in Manny (which we only realized after the fact) and even at 140 against Hatton who's a hard puncher himself, Pacquiao never let him get off any of his power shots. Cotto will land and land hard and if he hits Manny clean, don't be surprised to see him in queer street for a few moments. I think Manny will be able to deal with the power if he outworks Cotto and forces him to fight going backwards. If Cotto is able to make Manny retreat and/or fight off the ropes, Manny will be in trouble.




4. Although he was able to defeat Mosley and Judah, this will be the quickest opponent of Cotto's career by a long-shot. How will he be able to handle PacMan's speed advantage?

Ryan The Rhino -Pressure, pressure, pressure. Cut off the ring, pin Pacquiao into a corner, stay on the inside (half the Cotto/Margarito fight I was in the crowds going "Stay off the motherf***ing ropes!!"), and tighten up the defense. Don't let the size fool you! Those punches hurt! If Pacquiao can land those uppercuts, it'll be Little Mac vs. the video game version of Mike Tyson all over again.

Ramon Aranda - Well to me, Mosley is still one of the fastest fighters around and Manny won't be that much quicker so in essence, I think Cotto can handle the speed. What he may not be able to handle is a high punch output at THAT speed. If Cotto can keep Manny from firing off too many combinations in a row, he'll be fine.

Ali Shakoor - It will be a bit of a problem early. If he gets stunned like he did against Judah, he's in big trouble, because Manny is a great finisher. However, Manny will slow down as the fight goes on, because he'll taste Cotto's power. I don't think he'll be as offensive as he was against Oscar late in the fight, because he'll respect Cotto's power and reflexes more. Also, Cotto isn't exactly slow and plodding. The fella can box when needed, and counter-punch. Manny is in heap of trouble if he can't stop Cotto early.

Joe Roche - I'm not sure it's the speed as much as the unorthodox style of Pacquiao's approach that'll drive Cotto crazy. When Cotto fights talented offensive fighters who push the action he struggles a bit. Pacquiao is Margarito in a tiny package and he is going to come right after Cotto, throwing a lot of punches from a lot of different angles and that will cause Cotto fits. Cotto struggled with Joshua Clottey who is a bit of an unorthodox fighter and Pacquiao is a better fighter then Clottey.

Jonathan Yaghoubi -This will be the determining factor for Manny to come away with the victory. His speed advantage is the biggest one he has in this fight and will show Cotto some of the fastest punches he has ever seen. Cotto feels that he can neutralize this with his great defense. He makes it sound so easy but I don't think he truly will understand the speed he will be dealing until he enters that ring. Oscar had no clue until he fought in that ring and certainly Hatton get himself a rude awakening.

But Cotto is certainly quicker than those two guys and could surprise people on his ability to close the distance between himself and Pacquiao. I think Cotto will have his moments dealing with Manny's speed but that will ultimately be his downfall.





5. Let's get specific here gentlemen: who will win this fight, and how will they attain the victory?

Ali Shakoor -Miguel Cotto will win this fight. Considering the 3.5:1 odds, I'm thinking of putting some $ on him. Again, Cotto is a prime, bigger guy, at the proper weight. The first few rounds will be interesting, and I won't be surprised to see Cotto hurt. He'll weather the storm. He'll go to the body and wear Manny down from the middle rounds on...upstairs and downstairs. In the 11th round, either the referee, or Freddie Roach will stop the fight for a beaten-up Manny Pacquiao. If Manny proves me wrong, I'll never bet against him again while he's in his prime. We'll see. I can't wait…

Ryan The Rhino -When this fight was announced, I stated Pacquiao in 9. I think I'm going to hold to that, although I'm now less certain of the round. I do feel there will be a knockout in this fight... there's just too much power not to be. I think this will be the fight that defines Manny's reign as champion, as it will be the toughest of his career. But those who may have dismissed his wins over De La Hoya or Hatton will not be able to do the same with a win over Cotto.

Ramon Aranda - Well I'll stick with my pick which I mentioned on this week's 3 More Rounds, which you can listen to now by the way. I like Pacquiao to win the fight but more specifically by late round stoppage. Will he tattoo Cotto and force a stoppage or knock him out cold? I don't really think so but I more specifically feel he might bust him open early on and force the stoppage on cuts. Cotto has been cut prone as of late and I think this will give him a problem.

Joe Roche - I'm not dumb enough to pick against Manny Pacquiao for the second straight fight. I think Cotto is very tough to put down early and I expect the fight to go the distance, but I think Pacquiao's speed, and his ability to pressure Cotto while throwing punches from all angles is going to be too much for Cotto and after twelve rounds Manny Pacquiao will have made history becoming the first person with world championships in seven different weight classes.

Jonathan Yaghoubi -For a very long time, I really felt that Cotto was going to pull out the victory. Manny has had his share of problems to say the least at his training camp. Training in the hurricane conditions in the Philippines certainly did not help things out with Freddie Roach. Roach had said several times that he has not liked how Manny has looked in training camp and has not look motivated. In probably the toughest fight of his career, it certainly is not the time for this.

But in the end, I just can't see Cotto getting the win. He is going to need a knockout to do it and I don't think he is capable of doing it to Pacquiao right now. Manny is at an all time high right now in his career and is hitting as hard he has ever hit in his career. He is too quick for Cotto and is just the more talented fighter. It should be a great fight and I think Manny is going to win this by a UD victory with a knockdown of Cotto in round 10 or 11.

- - - - -

So there you have it!!! Now it's up to you, the Fight Freaks of the internet world, to cast your vote as to who will be victorious on Saturday night….

WHO YA GOT: PACQUIAO OR COTTO?!?!

[Also be sure to tune into 411mania on Saturday for live coverage of the fight!]