The Way I See It: 11.18.09: Cotto's Next Step
Posted by Joe Roche on 11.18.2009
After his brutal beating at the hands of Manny Pacquiao on Saturday night, what is next for Miguel Cotto?
On Saturday night Manny Pacquiao made history by becoming the first boxer to ever win seven world championships in seven different weight classes by defeated former WBO welterweight champion Miguel Cotto at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, NV. It was a virtuoso performance by Pacquiao who displayed an iron chin and granite fists as he pummeled Cotto for most of the 11+ rounds that the fight lasted. Immediately after the fight the crowd began to chant "We want Floyd" and it's obvious where Pacquiao should go from here – but the question of where Miguel Cotto now stands is a little more complicated.
The Way I See It: Miguel Cotto (34-2, 22 KO's) finds himself in a strange position. A quick glance at his record shows an accomplished welterweight who has fought all of the top competition and been competitive against almost everyone. In the last three years Cotto has beaten Paulie Malignaggi, Carlos Quintana, Zab Judah, Shane Mosley, Alfonso Gomez, and Joshua Clottey. His only loses have been the questionable yet brutal beating at the hands of Antonio Margarito and a one sided washout against Manny Pacquiao. Essentially there isn't a top fight at welterweight that Miguel Cotto hasn't already had and won – other then Margarito and Pacquiao and neither of them should be mentioned for a rematch (for differing reasons of course).
It's an interesting position that Cotto is in because he's almost penalized for being so willing to fight the top guys in his weight class. He's left with few new match ups and even fewer interesting rematches. Let me just discount immediately the idea that Miguel Cotto may retire after losing to Pacquiao. Cotto is not even 30 years old yet, and while he did lose in convincing fashion to Pacquiao, there isn't another Pacquiao out there so Cotto should still be favored over most of his potential competition moving forward. I also hate the idea of a warrior like Cotto going out in the fashion that he did on Saturday so for the sake of this argument let's talk about the potential avenues that Cotto could go down as he tries to rebuild his career in 2010 and beyond.
1. Shane Mosley/Andre Berto. This is the most obvious place to start because Mosley and Berto round out the top five welterweights in the world right now (along with Cotto, Pacquiao and Mayweather Jr.). It also fits that these two are going to meet in the ring on January 30th because it would leave the window for the winner to take on Cotto for sometime around June 2010 (coming off the heels of Pacquiao's next fight – with or without Mayweather Jr.). Obviously the interest in a fight between the lose of Mosley/Berto and Cotto would be much less, especially if it's Berto but that doesn't mean that it wouldn't be a fight worth watching. The bigger money fight would be Shane Mosley coming off a victory over Berto taking on Cotto and trying to redeem his loss from 2007. If Berto beats Mosley then I still think HBO could market a Mosley/Cotto rematch because there is enough history there to make for an interesting fight (although if Mosley loses to Berto there is a chance Mosley will hang up the gloves for good). A Berto/Cotto fight doesn't strike me as something that is to enticing even if Berto does beat Mosley – although I'm sure HBO would love to have that fight, and it's still better then most of the alternatives. I think if Cotto remains as a welterweight (more on this in a moment), then one of these two guys will be on the docket for 2010 even if it's not his first fight back from the Pacquiao loss.
2. Issac Hlatshwayo (29-1-1, 10 KO's). Right off the bat the biggest problem with making a fight with "The Angel" is that Hlatshwayo won't sell many tickets. That wouldn't be a major issue if the fight took place during Puerto Rican Independence weekend in New York City where Cotto can draw a good crowd and Top Rank could pull in decent numbers. Hlatshwayo is the current IBF welterweight champion and he fights again on Dec. 12, 2009 against Jan Zaveck. Assuming Hlatshwayo retains his title for that fight I think a Cotto fight might not be the worst idea for either guy. If Cotto can beat Hlatshwayo he'll have a championship back and he'll be on his way to rebuilding his reputation, meanwhile if Hlatshwayo could up-end Cotto he'd have a legitimate victory on his resume to stake a claim to bigger and better fights in 2010. I don't think this would be a bad fight for Cotto because having seen Hlatshwayo in action there is simply no way that he could hang with Miguel Cotto – even a diminished Miguel Cotto should be able to beat "The Angel" and frankly it's a better fight for Cotto's career then another stopover fight with Michael Jennings.
3. Paul Williams. No, no, no – one hundred times no. By law anytime you write a column about potential opponents for anyone who weights between 147 and 160 pounds you have to mention "The Punisher." Frankly I don't want to see this fight for two reasons, the first being that I don't think Williams should be fighting at 147 anymore and I'm not sure he will, so it's out the window right there. The second reason is that for Cotto to make a comeback he'll have to do it against someone who has a style that works with his, and Paul Williams throwing 120 punches a round isn't exactly the guy you want to make a comeback against. One thing working in this fight's favor is that it would be a pretty fantastic fight. I mean Miguel Cotto has never shied away from fighting anyone and what better way to prove it then by fighting the guy that nobody wants to fight in Paul Williams. If nothing else this would be a war.
4. Yuri Foreman (28-0, 8 KO's). Hear me out. For Cotto to fight Foreman he'd have to move up to 154 pounds. After talking to a few people who were at the weigh in the other day for "Firepower" they said that Cotto looked a little drained in his face, which leads me to believe that cutting to 145 pounds was not the easiest thing for him to do. I know that Cotto has never gone above 147 pounds, but isn't this the perfect time to move up in weight? And isn't Foreman the perfect opponent to move up against? Think about this for a second – in Miguel Cotto's last three fights he's been brutally beaten by Antonio Margarito (fairly or unfairly it doesn't change the outcome), he handily defeated Michael Jennings, he was in a vicious war with Joshua Clottey, and he was pummeled by Manny Pacquiao. That's three very difficult fights out of four in the last year and a half. Maybe Miguel Cotto just doesn't have it in him to be an elite welterweight anymore. Perhaps he's reached a point in his career where he will struggle with all of the top tier fighters at 147 pounds – and if that is true would it make more sense for him to remain as a welterweight and fight second tier competition or try his hand at moving up in weight and challenging for titles in a less stacked division like 154 pounds? From my perspective Cotto has always seemed like someone who could handle putting on a little extra weight, and the jump from 147 to 154 isn't so much that I think it'll hurt him in the ring. I also think that Foreman is the perfect guy to test the weight jump against because he won't threaten Cotto's chin with his power. The other reason I love this fight is because it would do very good in New York City – oh what you don't think the Rabbi world champion and the Puerto Rican hero could sell tickets in NYC? Give me a break this would be a license to print money for Top Rank in the Big Apple and if you throw JuanMa Lopez on that card you'd probably have to turn people away at the door. Of all the potential match ups for Miguel Cotto this is the one that most interests me and if I was a better man I'd say this idea at least gets floated around the Cotto camp after he's had a chance to recover from Saturday night.
The Way I See Bullet Points
- Here's a word of warning to Floyd Mayweather Jr. – if you're going to go out and make public statements like "Manny Pacquiao knows he can't beat me" or "There is boxing and then there is me. The rest are just falling in line behind me or are trying to get in line to fight me. And that includes Manny Pacquiao too" then you better be prepared to back that up. I respect Floyd Jr. and I have defended him in this space before but the problem that everyone (rightfully) has with him is that he lets his public persona write checks that he has no intention of cashing. Mayweather knows how to sell a fight, and he's fantastic at creating a buzz about something – as personified by his PPV numbers with Juan Manuel Marquez – but people will not sit idly by and let Mayweather talk down to Pacquiao UNLESS he actually gets in the ring with "Pac-Man." My greatest fear is that Floyd talks ad nausea about this fight and then when push comes to shove at the negotiating table he makes it impossible for the fight to happen. I think the entire boxing world is waiting with baited breath for Pacquiao-Mayweather and I hope that Mayweather doesn't tarnish whatever legacy he is trying to leave by being Floyd Mayweather and not letting this fight happen.
- Note to Daniel Santos – gaining 19 pounds in 24 hours is not healthy my friend. Yikes.
- Here's a little word to Bob Arum and Top Rank – the "Firepower" undercard was horrendous. I don't just mean a little horrendous I mean I felt like storming the Top Rank offices and demanding you refund my PPV money horrendous. Look Arum talks a great game, and he always tells us (the paying fan) how he will put on a fantastic undercard that will make the whole night worth the money and then he gives us the biggest ball of shite I've ever watched. After the Chavez Jr. fight was over one of the people in my living room turned to me and said – "I just saw the worst 22 rounds of professional boxing in consecutive rounds." That's not exactly the type of presentation you want to put on to build your audience. Look one thing the UFC does great is give fantastic undercards – that undercard on Saturday night was inexcusably bad and maybe instead of putting on monthly PPV's in Tijuana Bob Arum could keep an interesting fight or two around for his major PPV's next time.
- It was reported earlier this week that Jermain Taylor is back in the gym training for his second Super Six fight. I'm glad to hear that from Taylor, as I wrote in this space a few weeks ago I didn't like the idea of him dropping out of the tournament unless it was for his own long term health concerns. As it appears the doctors have given him the green light to move forward I am happy that he didn't let the public push him out the door just so someone else could take his place in the tournament.
- Personal update – this Friday (Nov. 20th) I'll be at the Twin River Event Center in Lincoln, RI ringside for CES Boxing's "Autumn Classic" featuring EBA & New England super middleweight champion "Irish" Joey McCreedy, and 2008 U.S. Olympic team alternate Danny O'Connor both in action. It should be a GREAT night of fights with a raucous crowd as much of the undercard is full of Irish fighters so the building should be nuts, if you want to follow along I'll be live tweeting the event @411JRoche on twitter.
The Way I See The Week Ahead
Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009
TV: None
Location: Suchales, Argentina
- Marcos Maidana (26-1-0, 25 KO's) v. William Gonzales (22-3-0, 19 KO's)
Might I just point out that whoever is in charge of Maidana's career is doing the exact opposite of a good job. Maidana coming off the biggest win of his career, on HBO, in the United States, by upsetting an undefeated prospect of Golden Boy and how does he follow it up? With an untelevised fight in Argentina against William Gonzales. Nothing like striking when the iron is hot for Team Maidana.
Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009
TV: Showtime (TV PICK OF THE WEEK)
Location: Oakland, California
- Mikkel Kessler (42-1-0, 32 KO's) v. Andre Ward (20-0-0, 13 KO's)
Is Andre "SOG" Ward a great guy? All signs point to yes. Is Andre Ward a friend to 411mania.com? I would have to say that he is. Is Andre Ward the best chance for an American victory in the first stage of the Super Six? By default he is. Will Andre Ward beat Mikkel Kessler on Saturday night? Nope. Sorry, I really want to say that I think Ward will beat Kessler, but heading into this tournament I didn't give Andre much of a chance in this fight and I still don't. I know there are certain people on this staff who think Ward has a great chance to win this tournament – but I think those people are crazy. Mikkel Kessler is the odds on favorite to win the tournament for a reason and I stand by my prediction that Kessler will be the breakout star of the tournament, and his star will begin to rise on Saturday night. The Viking Warrior is a future super-duper star in the super middleweight division and he'll prove it this weekend.
The last time Sonsona fought it was an all out war and might get some votes for FOTY (probably not first place votes, but votes none the less). I predicted big things for Sonsona this year because it's been the year of the Pinoy champion and I don't think that'll end on Saturday. It's amazing to me – as an outsider – how big the pinoy population in Ontario seems to be but Sonsona is fighting in his adopted home in North America this weekend and I don't expect him to be anything other then spectacular.
I bet you didn't think the lineal cruiserweight championship [EDIT: I have been reminded that Erdei is the lineal light heavyweight champion -- that's a bad move on my part. Although it speaks volumes about Erdei's status that my mistake would even happen.] would be on the line this weekend? I bet you didn't even realize that Zsolt Erdei was the lineal cruiserweight champion? And that my friend is the problem with the cruiserweight division. As much as I don't think Tomasz Adamek should be fighting in the heavyweight division I also don't think there is much for him to accomplish at cruiserweight when the lineal championship is held by Zsolt Erdei – so it's tough to blame him for taking the money to fight at heavyweight.
Hey now, I have to stand up for the "Firepower" undercard. I was there, and I was entertained by... most of it. Take the Junior fight out of the picture for a moment (PLEASE! PLEASE GOD TAKE IT AWAY!). Gomez and Soto-Karass were having a pretty good scrapper even though Soto-Karass was trying to go south of the border more than a few times. And although the first three-ish rounds of Foreman/Santos were the typical uber-technical fight we've seen from Foreman, he stepped on the gas when necessary to give a little pizazz to the fight. That's more than I can say for Junior.
Posted By: Ryan Bates (Guest) on November 18, 2009 at 12:25 AM
Erdei is the lineal LH champ moving up to cruiser. Adamek is still the lineal cruiser champ. How does a 'boxing writer' have his facts so wrong?
Posted By: Hello? (Guest) on November 18, 2009 at 01:31 AM
My two cents on Cotto:
If he wants to turns things around, he needs a change in his corner. More info has come out of his problems with his uncle and former trainer Evangelista Cotto and I am going to post some of it here: The main problem was that Cotto was hanging out too much, drinking and spending time at pubs. Evangelista was always in his ear about it, trying to convince him to stop doing it and to leave that lifestyle for when his career was over. They had constant fights about it and that's why the situation escalated to the point it did.
Apparently his new trainer, who is pretty inexperienced, is good friends with Cotto and allows him to do whatever the F*ck he wants, which is why I think we have seen Cotto look so bad. He is pretty much running his own camp, doing what he wants, with no one to put him on his place.
BTW, all this info came out the day after the fight on a local gossip show.
But I agree with Roche that a move to 154 would be beneficial. Of course, they are already talking of getting a rematch with Margarito and then retiring, but they should not do that. I don't want Cotto to become the next Trinidad: A guy who left the sport young and then tried to come back when it was too late.
Posted By: Armando Rodriguez (Registered) on November 18, 2009 at 09:19 AM
Ryan -- I gotta disagree with you about the undercard. I am sure that your perspective is different because you were there. The Gomez/Soto-Karass fight was fine but it can't be more then that because we only got half of it.
The Santos/Foreman fight was atrocious. Santos gained 19 pounds over night and looked incredibly out of shape, very slow, and lethargic. Giving Foreman credit for not just sitting there and waiting for Santos to die doesn't make a great fight.
JCC Jr. was awful. I think we can agree on that.
Posted By: Joe Roche (Registered) on November 18, 2009 at 01:49 PM
