The Way I See It 11.25.09: The Super Six Now
Posted by Joe Roche on 11.25.2009
With the first round of the Super Six World Boxing Classic over, where do things stand? How far has Jermain Taylor fallen? Is Andre Ward the odds on favorite to take it all? Can Mikkel Kessler make a comeback? 411s Joe Roche answers these questions
This past Saturday Andre Ward became the WBA super middleweight champion with a convincing 10th round TKO victory over Mikkel Kessler. The fight was the final bout in Stage One of Showtime's Super Six World Boxing Classic. Earlier in the tournament Carl Froch defeated Andre Dirrell by decision, and Arthur Abraham scored a 12th round KO over Jermain Taylor. With the first round complete Abraham holds the overall lead with three points; Froch and Ward are tied with two points, and Dirrell, Taylor and Kessler round out the bottom three. When the tournament began Kessler was considered to be the favorite (or second favorite) of most pundits, however things have changed dramatically since the Super Six was announced in July. As we leave Stage One behind, let's handicap the tournament from the fighter in the worst position, to the fighter in the best position as we enter Stage Two and beyond.
The Way I See It:
6. Jermain Taylor: The former undisputed middleweight champion has fallen and fallen hard in recent years. While Taylor's Stage One knock out at the hands of Arthur Abraham was devastating I was never one of those people who thought Taylor should drop out of the tournament. As a matter of fact I thought that Taylor had more positive things to take from the fight with Abraham than any of his previous four fights, and I'm including his victory over Jeff Lacy in that discussion. The biggest concern for Taylor coming into the tournament was his stamina because he had famously burnt himself out against Carl Froch with a fraction of a round left in the fight. I think it'd be hard to say that Taylor lost to Abraham because he was gassed I'd say that Taylor just lost to Abraham because he wasn't better then the "King" on that night. The problem for Taylor won't be his stamina, as much as it'll be how he recovers from a devastating knock out, his third in five fights. At some point being knocked out takes something out of a fighter and Taylor has suffered more then most. That being said the other difficult thing for Taylor is that his road through the First Stage is the most difficult of any fighter in the tournament. Up next for Jermain, the newly minted WBA super middleweight champion and trending pick as favorite in the tournament Andre Ward, after that he'll have to take on Mikkel Kessler who before Saturday night was the favorite in the tournament. I don't think any fighter had a more difficult road then Jermain Taylor, couple that with his recent history and it is impossible to say that there is anyone with a worse chance of getting out of the first stage.
5. Andre Dirrell: I like Andre Dirrell, and I thought he beat Carl Froch but the judge's didn't, and the Super Six scoreboard has him with zero points so he finds himself in the fifth spot and not one or two spots higher. I thought Dirrell had a good draw when this tournament began and I thought he'd be far to talented for Froch, but he showed his inexperience and it cost him a chance to get out of the first stage of this tournament. One thing that I believe is that Dirrell will come out of the Super Six much better off then he was when the tournament started. There is no substitution for top flight competition and Dirrell is getting a masters degree in that right now. He already has a fight under his belt with the WBC super middleweight champion; next up is Arthur Abraham and then a date with the WBA super middleweight champion that's an impressive three fight run for any fighter. Dirrell will keep improving as the tournament moves on which makes him very dangerous for anyone that will wind up in his path. I think Dirrell is a very bad match up for Abraham because he has the type of work rate that could give Abraham problems. That being said he's also a bad match up for Andre Ward, so even if he pulls off a major upset and beats Abraham I don't see him finishing the first stage with more then two points, and that's not going to be enough to move on (and I should end this by saying that I am by no means picking Dirrell to beat Abraham, not yet at least).
4. Carl Froch: The WBC super middleweight champion has two points after the first stage and yet I still don't have him advancing in the tournament. I was not impressed with Froch in his first fight against Dirrell and as I've said before I scored the fight for Dirrell. That being said Froch has beaten two of the guys in this tournament already so he deserves respect for that, and he does have two points so if he can pull off one more victory in his next two he should be able to get into the second stage. Unfortunately for Froch he's going to be matched up with a pissed off and extra motivated Mikkel Kessler and then Arthur Abraham in the last fight of Stage One. The Kessler fight is the big one for Froch, because Kessler suffered some pretty serious cuts in that fight with Ward, if he isn't able to compete or compete in a high level then Froch may be in business. However, I tend to think that Kessler let his mind play tricks on him against Ward, and with factors other then those in the ring weighing heavy on his mind Kessler turned in the turd sandwhich performance of a lifetime. With the way Ward performed on Saturday there is little doubt that he would've won no matter which Kessler showed up in Oakland, but the Kessler that was in the ring didn't even deserve to be in this tournament. Froch has a very difficult road ahead of him and I don't see him picking up any points in his next two bouts.
3. Mikkel Kessler: Before everyone goes crazy just hear me out. Kessler was made the pre-tournament favorite for a reason right? I don't think that the Mikkel Kessler that we saw on Saturday is the real Mikkel Kessler although I think many people overrated Kessler (myself included) there is no way that he's as bad as he was on Saturday. That being said Kessler has a very winnable road to the next round with a home game so to speak against Carl Froch and the WBC super middleweight title, and then he closes up the first round against a very beatable Jermain Taylor. At this point I think there is a decent change that Kessler could finish the first part of the Super Six with six points, which will probably be enough to at least tie him with Andre Ward (unless Ward KO's Taylor). The big question for the "Viking Warrior" is the cuts and how he heals. The cuts that he suffered on Saturday night, regardless of how he got them were very bad. I was talking to Ramon during the fight with was ringside and I was telling him how they looked worse then the cut Cotto suffered against Joshua Clottey and I stand behind that statement. If Kessler doesn't heal then he may be forced out of the tournament, but if he can fight and I would guess that he almost surely will then I think he'll beat both Froch and Taylor with at least one knockout in the bunch to get himself into the second phase of this tournament.
2. Arthur Abraham: This is a bit of a toss up for me but looking at future opponents I think Andre Ward has an easier road to the second round and thus an easier tournament left over all. "King" Arthur is sitting pretty right now with a KO victory over Jermain Taylor earning him three points he's essentially written his ticket to the second round with one win in his next two fights. Abraham has to be considered the favorite at this point in the tournament by most people because of his iron jaw, his great defense and his power. I actually don't think he fought a particularly good fight against Jermain Taylor, but he fought smart, he stayed within himself and he struck when the time was right. Andre Dirrell will not slow down like Taylor, and Dirrell won't just wait around for Abraham to start doing things he's going to take the fight right to Arthur and it's that pressure and style that makes me think one of two things will happen, Dirrel may win, or Dirrell will get knocked out. Dirrell has to be killing himself for some of the criticism that he received after the Froch fight, and being young he may try to "prove all the haters wrong" against Abraham and stand in front of Arthur and trade blows that would be a mistake. I think Dirrell could be a very difficult match up for Abraham if he fights his style of fight, but if Dirrell wants to play punching power with "King" Arthur that's a fight he can not win. Abraham's other remaining fight is against Carl Froch, which will be a fight for Froch that he will have to win which makes it dangerous but I can't see Abraham losing to Froch which means that no matter what happens in the Dirrell fight Abraham will be in the second round.
1. Andre Ward: If the point of the Super Six World Boxing Classic was to create an American boxing star not named Floyd Mayweather Jr. then I believe Showtime has achieved their goal. Ward was masterful on Saturday night, and the new WBA super middleweight champion is exactly what the U.S. boxing universe needs. If I were going to make one criticism of Andre Ward it's that he's a bit too how do you say religious? Look I have nothing against religion, I think it's great but to create mass appeal it's not always great to adorn yourself with religious slogans and call yourself "Son of God." When you get to the point where you're nit picking a man's devout faith then you know you've found a special person/fighter, and Andre Ward is that. His win over Mikkel Kessler has put him in the drivers seat for this tournament because his promoters already worked him the best possible travel schedule (which is to say no travel schedule), and his remaining two fights are against my bottom two fighters in this column. I would guess that Ward likely won't fight his next two fights in Oakland but he won't be going to Europe until at least his fourth tournament fight so he's packing will remain light for the foreseeable future. There is no doubt in my mind that Ward will dominate Jermain Taylor, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't score a KO which would give him five points in the tournament and assure him a spot in the second round. Andre Dirrell will be a very difficult opponent, and that is a fight that I think a lot of boxing fans will be clamoring for by the time late summer/early fall 2010 rolls around. At 9:59 pm/est on Saturday night I would've ranked Andre Ward fifth of six fighters in the Super Six, but with one dominating performance over a fighter that I confess was probably overrated in my mind he skyrocketed to the top of the charts. Andre Ward has great fundamentals, and I said as much in my preview of the fight my problem is that I didn't take into account how important it is to be fundamentally more sound then your opponent. Mikkel Kessler has no answer for the grace and fluidity of Andre Ward and that's why the WBA super middleweight title now resides in Oakland, California home of the Super Six World Boxing Classic's favorite after Stage One.
- The saddest news of the week is obviously about the passing of 25 year old Chicago area fighter Francisco Rodriguez who died after a 10th round TKO loss in Philadelphia at the Blue Horizon last week. Rodriguez leaves behind a wife and young child however he also leaves behind a great legacy. You see Rodriguez was an organ donor, and eight people benefited from Rodriguez's organs, including his own uncle who has been on a kidney transplant waiting list for years. There is obviously nothing that can fill the hole in his family left by the untimely death of Rodriguez, but I hope that his family can be thankful that he was such a great man that in his death he could be a hero to eight other families. I've said it a lot this week but my family, and the entire 411mania.com staff send their deepest condolences to the Rodriguez family in this difficult time.
- The other big story this past week has been about Golden Boy (well Richard Schaefer) and Bob Arum of Top Rank opening talks concerning a possible 2010 showdown between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao. I've heard all of the arguments for Manny getting the lion's share of the revenue, and I've heard them all about Mayweather honestly the only thing that makes sense is a 50/50 split of the purse with the fight happening at the true welterweight limit of 147 pounds. This is where Freddie Roach's mouth is going to get him in a bit of trouble, because he has spent the better part of the last six months telling anyone and everyone that Pacquiao has no problem at 147 and now it'll be time to put his money where his mouth is because Mayweather will hold on a catch weight fight. The fact is that Mayweather will get blamed for this fight not getting done regardless of who is actually at fault, but if Pacquiao and Top Rank want this fight to happen (and again, there is no evidence that they do, or don't) then they won't let Mayweather dig in his heels with any of his excuses. This fight will create a boatload of revenue, and if Mayweather wants his name on the top billing in the US, and give Manny the top billing internationally give it to him. If Floyd wants a rickshaw made of gold teeth, just give it to him because if there is one thing that everyone knows it's that Floyd doesn't care. If this fight doesn't happen, and half the world blames Floyd Jr. he won't lose a second of sleep but Pacquiao may, and if he really wants this fight he'll make sure it happens. Split the purse 50/50, let Manny do the international promotion and Floyd is the king of promoting in this country and watch the unprecedented PPV buys roll in.
- Depressingly sad booking decision of the week: Francois Botha and Evander Holyfield will meet in Kampala, Uganda on January 16. Unfortunately that isn't January 16, 1997 but is actually for Botha's WBF heavyweight title this coming January 16 (shakes head in disappointment). Holyfield has said that he hopes a win over Botha will set up a fight with Vitali Klitschko in what some experts are calling the least desired heavyweight title match in history.
- Local note of the week: I covered the CES "Autumn Classic" event from the Twin River Events Center last Friday night, a fact that probably doesn't interest as many people as I wish it did. One thing that came out of the event was that Otis "Triple O.G." Griffin, who won a unanimous decision over "Irish" Joey McCreedy in the Main Event announced that he would be coming back to Providence for his next fight against Joey "K.O. Kid" Spina, which is a light heavyweight bout between two Top 20 ranked light heavyweights (well at least Spina is ranked).
- On a bit more personal note: Tomorrow is Thanksgiving, which is the great American holiday. I've been writing for 411mania.com for over two years now whether it is in the video game section, or here in the boxing zone. I have a lot in my personal life to be thankful for but everyone who has taken the time to read one of my columns is on the list of people that I have to be thankful for. I'm also thankful for Ramon Aranda, the most underappreciated editor in the history of 411mania.com who brought me to 411mania, and has dealt with me ever since. With all of that aside I just wanted to end this week by saying that from my family to yours, in whichever manner you choose to celebrate on Thursday I wish you and yours a Happy Thanksgiving.
The Way I See The Week Ahead
Saturday November 28, 2009
Location: Montreal, Quebec
TV: HBO (TV PICK OF THE WEEK)
Title: Bute's IBF super middleweight title
- Lucian Bute (23-0, 18 KO's) v. Librado Andrade (28-2, 21 KO's)
It's a rematch of Fightnews Canada's 2008 Fight of the Year even though had Bute not gotten greedy in the final round it wouldn't have made many people's list. The first meeting was a good fight don't get me wrong, but I don't think it was a FOTY with how one sided much of the fight was before the 12th round. However Andrade has turned that 12th round into a rematch and this is a pretty good fight this weekend. Aside from the rematch element it also gives HBO a chance to put on their own super middleweight exposition, and if Bute/Andrade can put on a great performance it opens the door for HBO to say that they have under contract the best super middleweights in the world regardless of whatever it is Showtime is doing. Unfortunately I think Bute is too good for Andrade and I don't expect this fight to be as close as the first one (which again I didn't think was very close before the 12th round).
Saturday November 28, 2009
Location: Temecula, California
TV: Showtime
- John Molina (18-0, 14 KO's) v. Martin Honorio (25-4-1, 13 KO's)
The last time we saw John Molina he was sawing Efren Hinojosa in half with a vicious left hook to the body as part of the Klitschko-Arreola undercard. I like Molina, and I like that this is his fifth fight in 2009, that's a good workrate for a prospect of his caliber. I also like that they're stepping him up slowly, but steadily and I think Honorio is a good step in the right direction for Molina. Honorio is on a two fight win streak after losing to Robert "The Ghost" Guerrero in an IBF featherweight title fight. Of course his fight with Guerrero was in 2007 so his workrate is the exact opposite of Molina's and I don't expect him to stand much of a chance of upsetting Molina on this night.
