411 Prizefight Preview: Tripleheader Edition

Posted by Matt Knowles on 12.11.2009

This Saturday night on HBO, we have the comeback of one of the world's top prospects, a much-talked-about rematch, and a heavyweight title defense, all on one great show!

Welcome back to the Prizefight Preview!





This Saturday night on HBO's Boxing After Dark, we the Fight Freaks are in store for an entertaining triple-header stemming from two different locations. The first two bouts will take place in the Chicago suburbs, while the night cap will be a tape-delay broadcast from Switzerland. The evening begins with junior welterweight prospect Victor Ortiz facing off against former title challenger Antonio Diaz. Then we will witness the much-anticipated rematch between former champs Juan Diaz and Paulie Malignaggi as the look to settle their copetitive feud. To close the show, WBC champion Vitali Klitschko makes his 3rd title defense of the calendar year as he takes on unbeaten American challenger Kevin Johnson.


There are all kinds of question marks surrounding the circumstances in each of the three HBO bouts. For the opener, the "Big Q" is whether or not Victor Ortiz has mentally recovered from his 1st pro loss earlier this year. In that bout, Ortiz went to war with fellow unbeaten prospect Marcos Maidana, and after some of the best back-and-forth action of the calendar year, Ortiz basically waved a white flag and quit once the "going got tough." Some fighters bounce back from this type of embarassment and are better than ever (see: Genaro Hernandez' challenge of Azumah Nelson, following a white-flag affair vs. De La Hoya). Many others, however, never fully recover and aren't able to shake the "quitter" label, as the habit becomes ingrained into their psyche (see: Andrew Golota vs. Grant/Tyson).





Being that Ortiz is still young, I don't think it's too late for him to shake-off the stigma that came from his last bout. This being said, there's no better time than this Saturday to begin that process. If Ortiz hunts down Diaz in the early going and gets his offense in rhythm, he should be able to produce a dynamite performance. Any caution or apprehension, however, could mean that Ortiz is potentially damaged goods, at least in the eyes of the ever-so-demanding boxing audience. I'm going to lean towards the former on this topic, and assume that Ortiz will get right back to his aggressive ways. Whether or not Diaz has anything left in the tank to make the bout competitive is another story altogether, but I do expect some fun exchanges to take place at center ring.





For chapter 2 of the Diaz and Malignaggi saga, there are also some questions that need immediate responses. Who will be the fan-favorite in Chicago? Which man has improved more since their first encounter? Can either of them step-it-up to the degree that a KO would be possible? Personally, when I envision this bout, I see nothing but glaring advantages for the Baby Bull. For all three of the aforementioned questions, Diaz seems to be the logical answer. Chicago has a rich Latino demographic (#2 in the US if I am not mistakened) that will undoubetedly show up to root for Diaz. As the younger, fresher fighter, he has more room to improve than Malignaggi, who basically only fights in one style. And if a KO is in order for Saturday night (which I doubt, but nevertheless…), the only man with the tools to produce one would seem to be Diaz, as Malignaggi is one of the more feather-fisted contenders in the mid-weight classes.


There is also the factor of motivation that needs to be addressed as well. I must say that since Malignaggi has been running his mouth for months about the scorecards in the 1st bout, he will without question be looking to make a statement in the rematch. If he lays an egg and gets beat up, all of that previous talk flies out the window, and he's too good of an athlete for that to really happen. If he brings his A-game, he does have a legitimate chance to take a close decision. I'd venture to guess that Paulie will try to take control of the action early on, but that route may also spell doom, as Diaz has proven to be a very fast starter in many of his high-profile bouts. I fully expect 4th of July type-of fireworks in the first couple of rounds, with Diaz' strength advantage taking over late in the bout, en route to another close decision W for the Baby Bull.





The finale bout on the HBO dual site telecast will be Vitali Klitschko's defense of the WBC heavyweight title against Kevin "Kingpin" Johnson, eminating from the beautiful land of Switzerland. The champion is coming off of a dominant TKO victory over #1 contender Cris Arreola, while the challenger earned the biggest W of his blooming career in his most recent bout against Devin Vargas. Although those 2 opponents are relatively similar in style, Klitschko is light-years ahead of Johnson when it comes to high profile bouts against top-tier opposition. So the "big Q" in this one will have to be: does Johnson really know what he's gettin' himself into? This will be his 1st bout in the world spotlight, and it's against the most active and dominant heavyweight title holder in quite some time. To say that the deck is stacked against Johnson is the understatement of the year.


Normally this is the time of the article when I come up with some outlandish reason as to why Klitschko will fail. I've made no secret about my dissatisfaction with the entertainment value (or lackthereof) that the Ukranian boxing brothers have brought to the table. All things in this sport are relative, and when you consider that cats like myself grew up watching the likes of Mike Tyson and Evander Holyfield trade vicious bombs in front of jam-packed Vegas crowds, it becomes difficult to get excited about heavyweights who lean back and counter from long range in front of eerily-polite overseas onlookers.


Regardless of my desire for more ferocity in heavyweight title bouts, however, there's no denying that Vitali's recent triumphs/performances have been technically outstanding. His timing and accuracy are unparalled, and an opponent such as Kevin Johnson (short, relatively easy to hit, little punching power) doesn't seem to have the tools to counter-act the strengths that Klitschko possesses. As much as I'd love to see the Kingpin bring the belt back to the U-S-of-A, I'm hard-pressed to envision a scenario where he leaves Europe with a W. Maybe he can open a cut and win by TKO. Maybe Vitali will suffer an untimely injury and have to bow out like he did against Chris Byrd back in the day. I could pray all day and night for one of these things to happen, but I really doubt that even the Man Above (all due respect) could assist Mr. Johnson in this venture. I expect more of the same from Vitali in this bout: technical brilliance, severe punishment, followed by a TKO between rounds late in the contest.


Random Thoughts:

* As excited as I am about the HBO card, I must admit that UFC 107 looks to be an awesome MMA show from top to bottom. I'm a big Frank Mir mark, and can't wait to see him snap Congo's arm in half, then proceed to smack 'em over the head with it. Just imagine the visual on that one....

* I'm also fired-up to see two of my all-time favorites, BJ Penn and Diego Sanchez, as they will go to war for the lightweight strap. My heart is definitely torn, but either way, this will be a great night for fight fans from all walks of combat!

* It's too bad that my DVR can't record 3 shows at once, since it looks as if the great junior welterweight title fight between Bradley and Peterson on Showtime won't be making it to my TV on Saturday. If you have the opportunity to see it, go for it, since it will definitely be a competitive clash.


SEE YA AT THE FIGHTS!!!