The Way I See It 12.17.09: 10 Fights For 2010

Posted by Joe Roche on 12.17.2009

This week I'm taking a look at my ten most wanted fights that may (or may not) happen in 2010.

As 2009 winds to a close and we begin to look to the horizon for "The Aughts" to kick off I think it's time for me to take a break from giving my insightful analysis of things that have already happened and look to the future. In a move done purely because I couldn't think of a great topic this week I'm not going to talk about things that have happened, but instead will prognosticate on what is yet to come. As we wind down 2009, a year that was fantastic for boxing fans around the world allow me to pave the way to 2010 by listing the 10 fights that I most want to see in twenty ten.

The Way I See It:

10. Kelly Pavlik v. Paul Williams: Before everyone goes crazy I realize that Kelly Pavlik wants no piece of Paul Williams, and he showed that pretty clearly with his actions leading up to his scheduled fight with "The Punisher." But phantom staph infections (ok lingering staph infections, I have no doubt that Kelly was actually sick for awhile) aside this fight has to happen. PW has earned the fight to fight for the middleweight title, and Pavlik should give him his shot. I think Williams looking human against Sergio Martinez makes this fight more likely today then it was two weeks ago, but I still think it's a bit of a long shot.

9. Chad Dawson v. Jean Pascal: Let me start this off by saying that I'm a Chad Dawson apologist. I'm a huge fan of "Bad" Chad and that might cloud my reasoning here – also it helps explain why he'll show up later on this list. This fight is the one that a lot of people want. Pascal is considered either the second or third best light heavyweight in the world, and it's a no brainer that at some point he'll mix it up with Chad Dawson. However, I don't think Pascal is on the same level as Dawson, as a matter of fact I'm not even sure this would be much of a fight. Dawson gets a lot of criticism because of his style, and people have accused him of "running" in fights, but his style is much akin to Floyd Mayweather Jr. and I always remind people that there is more to boxing then throwing punches, you always want to try to not get hit. Whether you credit Dawson with beating some older fighters or not you can't tell me that Jean Pascal would be anything but a sizeable underdog if these two met on a neutral site. Which brings me to the major problem with this fight – it would almost certainly have to happen in Montreal, which is a problem because Chad Dawson is promoted by Gary Shaw who I can almost assure you won't be visiting Montreal in 2010 after what happened to Ali Funeka. If this fight were to happen I'd hope that the undercard featured Tavoris Cloud vs. Adrian Diaconu because it would set up a fight a little further down my list.

8. Shane Mosley v. Andre Berto: Look at that, a fight that we already know that we'll see, and we'll see very soon. I'm not necessarily a fan of either fighter's personality so I have a tough time finding a rooting interest in this one. I can't stand the feeling I get from Andre Berto that he thinks he's accomplished something already in his career, when in actuality he hasn't done much of note. On the other hand I'm not a huge Shane Mosley fan either, although I did support his actions after the Mayweather fight. The reason this fight is important is because both guys are really fighting for a BIG payday later on in 2010. You have to assume that the winner of this fight is at least first or second in line for a fight with either Manny Pacquiao or Floyd Mayweather Jr. in late 2010 which would be a monster payday for both guys. It's also a chance for Berto to establish himself as a star, and for Mosley to remind us that he's still a force to be reckoned with. The one concern that I have for Mosley is that we've seen a string of older fighters whom we all assumed were ageless suddenly show their age and rapidly decline in front of our eyes. It happened to Glen Johnson, it happened to Roy Jones Jr. and it happened to Bernard Hopkins – are we going to see a diminished Shane Mosley on January 30th? I'm not sure but I do know that I'll be tuned in and anxious to see what happens.

7. Tomasz Adamek v. David Haye: I'd like to see this fight at either cruiserweight or heavyweight but I imagine that if it were to happen it'd be at heavyweight. Adamek is already slated to face Jason Estrada in February, and before the end of May David Haye will have to defend his belt against John Ruiz so the earliest that we'll see a meeting between these two would be in late summer 2010. I think this might be the most interesting heavyweight title fight that could possibly be made at this point – I mean Haye/Ruiz is an interesting fight, and I am excited for Adamek/Estrada but none of the aforementioned fighters can hang with either of the Klitschko's so the only obvious other track is to put the winners in the ring with one another. I know David Haye is talking about fighting the Klitschko's again but didn't we spend most of 2009 hearing this same bullshit from him? He has the belt now and he thinks that'll give him some bargaining power but he'll still have to sign on to the rematch clause, and the fight with the other brother clause – which he has said he won't do, so I don't think that we'll see that fight, and if we do it'll come after an Adamek fight anyways because I don't see either of the Klitschko's fighting Haye in August (but I could see it in December).

6. Tavoris Cloud v. Chad Dawson: Now this is a fight that I'd LOVE to see happen. It'd be especially great if you could get Cloud-Diaconu on the undercard of a Dawson-Pascal HBO Championship Boxing card because then we could start the build for this fight in about April, and get a fantastic light heavyweight clash in August that would pit the two best light heavyweights in the country (and probably the world) against one another, probably to unify the division. Cloud claims that Dawson has been ducking him, which is partially true and mostly false. The truth is that Dawson had no incentive to fight Cloud up to, and including the present date. Sure he won the IBF strap from Clinton Woods, but there was still very little money in a Dawson-Cloud fight, and when HBO approached Dawson for a televised fight they said it was Hopkins or Johnson – that's how we wound up with Dawson-Johnson. There was never a mention of Tavoris Cloud for that slot so even though Cloud talks like Dawson ducks him, the fact is that Dawson wants to be on TV, and he's not going to fight Cloud until there is interest in the fight. Which is why HBO needs to be building up Tavoris Cloud. Cloud can already lay a claim to knocking down Dawson in the amateurs, he has the IBF light heavyweight belt, and he is a great fighter. If he could beat Diaconu on the same night that Dawson beats Pascal you'd have a ready made headliner for a great night of fights, and the best possible light heavyweight fight of 2010.

5. Timothy Bradley v. Manny Pacquiao: I have said it before and I'll restate my position – I do not think it's out of the question that Pacquiao could drop back down to 140 after his fight with Floyd Mayweather Jr. I don't think it's very likely, and it probably won't happen but I do think it's possible and if it were to occur there is only one fight at 140 that I'd want to see, and it's this one. The only complaint that I have about Manny Pacquiao is that he's only been in one fight at 140 pounds (his convince ass whooping of Ricky Hatton), and yet The Ring recognizes him as the junior welterweight champion. No offense to Ricky Hatton who at the time was considered to be a great junior welterweight, but even Freddie Roach has said that he just "wasn't that good." So should beating one guy at 140 pounds warrant the top spot in the entire division while someone like Bradley dominates the division? So for selfish reasons I'd like to see this fight though I don't think Bradley stands much of a chance against Pacquiao it'd still be an interesting bout to see and it'd be a fresh match up that people haven't been salivating over for months/years. I'd like to throw in a caveat right here if I may – the real fight at 140 pounds that I'd love to see in 2010 is Amir Khan and Timothy Bradley, and that fight doesn't seem necessarily out of the question. The concern I'd have with that fight if I was in the Gary Shaw/Timothy Bradley camp is that it seems to me that Bradley may have peaked as a professional – now that's not a bad thing, he's peaked as the best 140 pounder in the world right now, but I don't see him getting much better per se. On the other hand Amir Khan continues to improve by leaps and bounds every time out and while he might be ranked as the #2 (or third if you count Pacquiao) junior welterweight in the world it's possible that by the time Bradley and Khan meet, Amir will simply be too much for "Dessert Storm." I think that in the likely event that Pacquiao never comes back to 140 pounds – the best fight out there in junior welterweight is Timothy Bradley v. Amir Khan and what a fight that would be.

4. Wladimir Klitschko v. Vitali Klitschko: So we already know this fight is never, ever going to happen – so why waste a spot on the list with it? Because it's my list damnit. There is only one heavyweight title fight that involves either of the Klitschko's that would make for good television and this is the one. I think we've finally reached the point where everyone is willing to agree with my point that nobody in the heavyweight division has the ability to defeat either of the brothers, so why should we keep trotting them out there? I mean in 2010 we'll probably see Eddie Chambers fight and lose to Wladimir Klitschko. I also wouldn't be surprised if the names Alexander Povetkin, David Haye, an Alexander Dimitrenko don't get bandied about for a shot at one of the brothers. The problem with all of those names is that none of them holds a candle to either of Klitschko's which means that the fights will either be on internet only PPV or perhaps an ESPN affiliate will broadcast the fight in the middle of the day. We have reached the point where the heavyweight division is only interesting around one fighter (and that's because he's annoying and beatable) while most of the belts are around the waists of fighters who simply can't be beaten by any of the current crop of heavyweights. I think the interesting part of a Vitali/Wladimir clash is that Wladimir would enter the ring as The Ring heavyweight champion and the world recognized #1 heavyweight, but I think Vitali would be favored. If it wasn't for his injuries, and extensive time out of the ring Vitali would likely have the #1 spot instead of Wladimir because I believe (as do many other people) that Vitali is the better of the two Klitschko brothers. This would be the most important, most watched heavyweight title fight since Tyson/Lewis and it'd be a better fight then that was – unfortunately there is simply no chance that it'll ever happen so keep on dreaming folks.

3. Shane Mosley v. Floyd Mayweather Jr.: Maybe not the flashiest fight on paper, especially since it should have happened about eight years ago but if both men survive their early 2010 dates this is the fight that I think everyone will be asking for. Now whether or not you believe that in the early years Mosley was ducking Floyd, and now Floyd is ducking Shane or whatever the case may be the fact is that present day they're two of the top 4 welterweights in the world so there is no reason that they shouldn't meet in the ring. The one problem that this fight would have is location, location, location. Sure it'd happen in Vegas, and sure it would do great PPV numbers because Floyd brings the big numbers with him – but what would the gate look like for this fight? Mosley doesn't bring big crowds no matter what he tries to put on – the Margarito fight did great numbers, but I didn't hear a lot of Mosley chants during that fight. Floyd for his part brings almost nothing to the table with the live gate as far as out of towners go because his entire fan base (at least those willing to see him live) live in and around Las Vegas, which is why the gate for the Marquez fight was a bit disappointing. This fight would be historically important, it would do very good pay per view numbers but I think it'd be a disappointing gate. Of course that may all change if Floyd beats Pacquiao and Mosley beats Berto and we're talking about essentially the two best fighters in the world squaring off – which may be how this scenario plays out. In any case I think after the Pacquiao fight Floyd Mayweather Jr. will have some limited options, he can fight Pacquiao again, he can retire or he can fight Shane Mosley so I wouldn't rule this one out for a late 2010 showdown.

2. Andre Ward v. Lucian Bute: The one fight on my list that can't possibly happen in 2010 unless something miraculously bad happens to Andre Ward (or one of the Super Six competitors I guess) would pit arguably the best super middleweight in the world (Bute) against the hottest fighter in the 168 pound division (Ward) and would be an absolute joy to watch. Unless Bute decides to pack on some weight and move up to 175 pounds I can't possibly see these two guys going their entire careers without facing off so I think this fight has a very high likelihood of happening – just not in 2010.

1. Manny Pacquiao v. Floyd Mayweather Jr.: The granddaddy of them all my friends and it's actually going to happen. Words can not describe the excitement that will surround this fight. I mean 2009 was a great year for boxing, but ever since Floyd Jr. announced he was returning to the ring it felt like the whole year was nothing more then an appetizer for what could potentially be coming down the pike. So many things could have derailed this fight and yet here we are – almost assuredly preparing for the announcement and the hype machine to kick off right after the New Year and before you know it it'll be fight night. It does not happen often – that the two best fighters in the world square off. Logistically it's almost impossible for the scenario to even come together because when you think about all of the factors that have to come into play so that we can get a convergence like this one you realize how amazing it is that we'll even see this fight. I don't need to spend more time hyping this one because there will be plenty of time for that – even if none of the previous 9 fights happen in 2010 (and many of them won't) as long as we get to see Pacquiao-Mayweather I think 2010 will be another successful year for boxing

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- Was hearing a lot this week about Vitali Klitschko and David Haye agreeing to meet "at some point in 2010" already – it seemed like an odd thing to agree on, and according to David Haye that has absolutely not happened. The story made no sense when it was first released and it still doesn't make sense now. The only reason that either party would want to fight the other is because Haye currently holds the only real heavyweight championship that the Klitschko's don't have in their possession. But, Haye has a mandatory title defense against John Ruiz in April or May before he can fight one of the Klitschko's and if he misses that fight the WBA will likely strip him of the belt (or Ruslan Chagaev him – which is to say let him hang for eight months, never answer what happened and then just move on and hope nobody notices). Without the belt, there is no reason for Haye to fight either Klitschko so while I do think that there will be negotiations between Vitali and Haye's camps they won't start until after the Ruiz fight, and that is assuming that Haye beats Ruiz which is not a given.

- A little disappointed in the news that Chris John won't be moving up in weight to face Robert Guerrero which was another popular rumor this past week. Unlike with the Haye-Klitschko rumor though the John-Guerrero rumor seemed plausible, and also seemed awesome. I really like Chris John and think that he gets overlooked because of his weight class – and a match up with "The Ghost" might be just what John needs to get the proper respect. It's also a good fight for Guerrero who I think last fought in 1997 (this is a joke folks; I know it wasn't that long ago, but doesn't it feel that long ago?).

- I do respect the fact that John McCain (R-Arizona) and Peter King (D-New York) continue to hound President Obama about grating a pardon to Jack Johnson for his 1913 violation of the Mann Act because I do think it's an outrage that something has not been done to posthumously clear his name for transporting a woman across state lines. For those of you who don't know the story Johnson was arrested twice for violating the Mann Act, the first time it was due to the woman who would become his wife also being a prostitute – she refused to testify against Johnson and the case fell apart. The second arrest happened when Johnson transported a second prostitute across state lines, the transportation took place in 1909 and 1910 (prior to the passage of the Mann Act), that woman testified against Johnson and he spent 10 months in jail. Make no mistake about it, Jack Johnson was a target because he was a black heavyweight boxer beating up white heavyweight boxers. However, in light of the economy being in the toilet, our armies being deadlocked on two fronts, banks continuing to not loan out money and unemployment rising faster then flood waters isn't it more important that we deal with something real right this moment? The biggest problem I have is that Ronald Rogers the Justice Departments pardon attorney said the President would not consider the Johnson pardon because of the high number of clemency requests received this year – oh well Mr. Rogers I'd hate to have you spend two seconds dealing with one of the most ridiculous things in this countries history – heaven forbid that you stay at work an extra ten minutes to wrap this one up, oh sorry I forget you probably have a Justice Department softball game to get to…

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The Way I See The Week Ahead

Friday, December 18, 2009
Location: Albuquerque, New Mexico
TV: Showtime
- Fernando Guerrero (16-0, 13 KO's) v. Jesse Nicklow
- Shawn Porter (11-0, 9 KO's) v. Jamar Patterson (8-0, 4 KO's)
- Said El Harack (8-0, 3 KO's) v. Lanard Lane (9-0, 6 KO's)

This is a pretty stacked ShoBox for the final live edition of 2009 wouldn't you say? A lot of good looking prospects on this show, not the least of whom is Shawn Porter who I am sure a lot of people are interested in getting a look at after the rave reviews he garnered from Freddie Roach and Team Pacquiao in the build up to the Cotto fight. I also think Guerrero is one to watch – he's a top 15 rated middleweight who has had all 13 of his KO's come in the first four rounds so it might be a short night for Jesse Nicklow.

Friday, December 18, 2009
Location: Kobe, Japan
TV: N/A
Title: Hasegawa's WBC Bantamweight Title
- Hozumi Hasegawa (27-2, 11 KO's) v. Alvaro Perez (18-1-1, 12 KO's)

Hasegawa is an interesting case because he's one of those guys that I hear a lot about, but see very little of – whether that's because he's a bantamweight, or because he fights almost exclusively in Japan it up for debate. I'm hoping to catch this fight because I hate having a guy who may be a Top 15 fighter in the world off my radar.

Saturday, December 19, 2009
Location: Youngstown, Ohio
TV: Top Rank PPV (TV PICK OF THE WEEK)
Title: Kelly Pavlik's WBC/WBO Middleweight Title's
- Kelly Pavlik (35-1, 31 KO's) v. Miguel Espino (20-2-1, 9 KO's)

So I'm catching a lot of flak for being interested in this fight but how can you not be? Granted Kelly Pavlik has taken a career nose dive this year from one of the Top 10 pound for pound fighters in the world, to one of the most chicken hearted but doesn't that make this fight interested? A couple of months ago Pavlik said he almost died from a staph infection, he couldn't keep training so he cancelled his fight with Paul Williams and said he needed more time to rehab. Paul Williams announces that he'll fight Sergio Martinez instead of Pavlik and almost IMMEDIATELY Pavlik announces his fight with Espino. If Pavlik is still hurt like he claims then he should lose this fight due to the injury, but if he comes out and handles Espino handily then we'll have our answer – Kelly Pavlik is heartless, not hurt.

Saturday, December 19, 2009
Location: Caracas, Venezuela
TV: N/A
Title: Valero's WBC Lightweight Title
- Edwin Valero (25-0, 25 KO's) v. Hector Velazquez (51-13-2, 35 KO's)

Hey Edwin – how about you get this win, work on a VISA and fight Humberto Sota – sound good? Excellent.