Pressing Buttons 11.29.06: Are We Peaking?

Posted by Joshua Richey on 11.29.2006

What does the future of video games hold? Lots and lots of your money.



It's human nature to want more. Rarely in life will we ever remain truly content with our current situation. A relationship, a career, life in general... the anticipation of what's to come is what drives us. It's is no different with the video game world. This past month we witnessed the launches of the Playstation 3 and the Nintendo Wii... but what's next? I'm not talking short term. I mean, what's the Video Game Industry going to be like in say 10 years? Have you ever stopped and thought that maybe, just maybe, we've hit our peak? After putting some thought into it, maybe that's not as ridiculous of a thought as you would like to think.

Take a look at just how much video games have changed within the last 25 years. Hell, think about have much they've changed within the last 5 years.

We as gamers have become spoiled by the benefits of constant-bettering technology. What we label as ‘ground-breaking' today, is just 'mediocre' tomorrow. Just the other day I tried playing the original Turok for the N64. It's a game that has been a personal favorite of mine for a number of years now. It had been quite a long time since I had played it and just got in one of those moods where the only thing that was going to satisfy my boredom was a quick game of Turok. So, I turn the game on, begin a single player campaign, and, of course, start the first level by trying to shoot those damn monkeys that run by with my bow-and-arrow. Five minutes later, I'm bored. How can you possibly get any pleasure out of Turok for the N64 when you've spent all Thanksgiving weekend playing Gears of War for the 360? You can't. That would be like finally hooking up with the Prom Queen 70 years after the fact. It's just not the same.

I still remember the day that I got my Nintendo 64. I felt like the happiest little boy in the world. At that time I had gone from playing the Sega Genesis and Super Nintendo to playing Super Mario 64. Part of what made that experience so great was that you could see and feel the differences of a next-gen gaming experience. Super Mario 64 and Pilot Wings (my first N64 titles) were unlike any game that we'd ever seen. The graphics were better than anything that we could have possibly imagined.

On September, 9th, 1999, Sega released their latest console which was called the Dreamcast. The Dreamcast did exactly what the Nintendo 64 had done a generation earlier. It wowed, impressed, and completely raised our expectations. Once you got your hands on a Dreamcast and played games like Crazy Taxi or NFL 2K… you could never really enjoy your 64 as much.

Let's fast forward to the year 2006. The gaming world is completely different now from what it was then. Now, the Dreamcast is nothing more than an after-thought. The Nintendo 64 is on sale at your local Flea Market for 20 bucks. Back in 1998, you never would have thought that terms such as ‘HD', ‘online play', and ‘micro-transactions' would have been added to your gaming dictionary.

We live in a world that is constantly progressing. But what's going to happen when we reach our technological peak?

Back when Microsoft first showed off the abilities of their ‘future console', for the most part, gamers were unimpressed. At least at first you couldn't tell all that much of a difference between this new 360 and its X-Box predecessor. Some people thought that perhaps we'd reached a certain point where were not going to see things improve ‘by leaps and bounds' like the Nintendo 64 and Dreamcast did. Those concerns have only been confirmed in a lot of ways since then. While the X-Box 360 and the Playstation 3 are much more powerful than their previous console—you wouldn't be able to tell that based upon their current gaming catalogs. Making a game that fully utilizes their abilities would take more time and cost more money than most Developers are willing to sacrifice. Of course you're going to have your exceptions to that. Games like Gears of War and Metal Gear Solid 4 have effectively demonstrated the possibilities for this generation's console; but to expect every developer to do the same is unfair and unrealistic.

If you think that it's bad now, than just imagine what it's going to be like when the Playstation 4 and the X-Box 720 launch. I highly doubt that by the time those consoles are released that the general consumer is going to be willing to dish out $800-900 dollars for a console. It's a scary thought, but its one of those things that is bound to happen. The current-gen consoles are selling between $400-600 and the manufacturers are losing loads of money. Newer technology is only going to cost more; so don't expect future consoles to do anything but go up in price.

And what about the actual games themselves? The cost of developing a game has gotten to the point where the standard price of a video game was forced to raise by $10. Gamers didn't throw that big of a fit about that for the most part. But what if the gamers were to raise by another 10-15 dollars? You would then be paying around 75-80 dollars for just one game. Before you know it, you're taking a second mortgage on your house so that you can pick up the latest Final Fantasy.

Now you know why just so many industry leaders are praising Nintendo for their latest console, the Wii. Nintendo released a console that had less emphasis on things like graphics, and replaced them with innovation. Thus far that innovative approach has paid off in a big way, because people cannot seem to get enough of the Nintendo Wii. Over 600,000 of them sold within the first week of launch. That's an impressive feat that could give some insight as to where this industry is headed.

Another interesting possibility is this: what if there are no more consoles? The general life expectancy for a console is between 4 and 6 years. But with the rising costs of manufacturing consoles, and the rising costs to develop games—is it possible that we won't see another console for 8-10 years? That sure would be nice, wouldn't it? I honestly don't think that developers set out to push a game to its limits; especially these days. Their mindset is that they can tell the same story, and deliver the same experience to the gamer by continuing the status-quo. And who is to say that they're wrong? The early screens of Halo 3 look unimpressive. We label them ‘unimpressive' because the game seems to look (at least at this point) like the other Halo titles. Does that mean Halo 3 is going to be a bad game? Hell no it doesn't.

It's human nature to want more. But maybe we should start asking ourselves: how much more CAN we get?

But if I am wrong on all of this, and we are actually just beginning to scrape the surface as to what video games can do… then start saving your money now.

NOTES: Pressing Buttons is going to go on a short vacation after this article. I've got a ton of things on my plate right now. I've got finals coming up in a little over a week, I'm getting my wisdom teeth removed in less than 2 weeks, and next week I'm unveiling my latest contribution to 411Mania... an exclusive X-Box news report!