411 Games Fact or Fiction 01.02.08: Nintendophiles vs. The Full Circle vs. The SIXAXIS

Posted by Tommy Coloma on 01.02.2008

411's Theo Fraser, Mike Minotti, and Mark Salmela take a look at the year that was and give us a taste of things to come as they close out the year in this special New Year's edition of Fact or Fiction Games.

Welcome back to another edition of Fact or Fiction. This week we brought in the writers for all three console-specific news reports to give us their thoughts on this past year and what to expect in 2008. Here are their stats -

Mike Minotti currently posts The Full Circle: 360 News Report every Friday for the Games section. In addition, he records The Exploding Barrel Podcast with his brother AJ every Monday. Mike also writes Can They Be Champ? for the Wrestling section.

Mark Salmela has been doing Sony proud since 2007 with The SIXAXIS Report. You can also find him doing reviews from time to time.

Theo Fraser currently writes Nintendophiles, 411's weekly Nintendo news report. He also contributes to the 411 ROH Roundtable and has recently been a part of 411's 2007 Year End Wrestling Awards and Ari Berenstein's Final Column 2007.

Let's go -


1. Though Sony was in a rut at the beginning of the year, it was able to pick itself up and finish strong in the months leading up to 2008.

Mark Salmela: Fact

Now take that with a grain of salt, as Sony didn't do anywhere near as well as the competition. Dropping the price of the PS3 by $200 (well, to get to the 40 GB model) and getting features gamers want supported (like rumble) into the PS3 helped Sony to avoid what could have been a disaster. As of right now, Sony has sold about 7 or 8 million PS3s. That is a lot higher than the 3 million it was at back in July. I can see all 3 companies making huge strides in 2008, but right now with the amount of exclusives Sony has coming in the first 6 months of 2008, Sony could be making a comeback. Killzone 2, Little Big Planet, MGS4, Gran Turismo 5, Home, and all of Sony's other big launches in the first 6 months of 2008 will help bring the PS3 back into the console race, and Sony wouldn't be in that position unless they hadn't kicked themselves in the butt this year and realized they're getting beat by a product called the Wii.

Mike Minotti: Fiction

While I agree with Mark that Sony's 2008 looks promising, I don't think they deserve much credit for how the end of 2007 went. Sure, the price drop brought sales up for one month, but it didn't take long for them to go back to mediocrity. More disappointing are the software sales numbers. Uncharted and Ratchet and Clank have both underperformed, despite being excellent games. I think the marketing is to blame a bit there. Also, Home was promised to be in beta for the end of 2007. It never came.

Theo Fraser: Fiction

I'm siding with Mike on this one. Sure, it hasn't been as disastrous for them as it could have been, but apart from the PS3 price cut, Sony hasn't really stood out in my mind insofar as going the extra mile to ensure the Christmas period was a success for them. Personally, I think the only reason Sony is looking strong right now is because everyone is already looking to 2008 and the awesome titles that Sony has lined up for the coming months. There's nothing wrong with that per se (after all, I've been hyping up No More Heroes for the Wii since LAST Christmas), but it shouldn't cloud the fact that all in all, 2007 wasn't the best of years for Sony Entertainment.

Score: 0 for 1


2. In 2008, the Xbox 360 will have exclusives that will bring in gamers who weren't swayed by Halo 3 and Gears of War.

Mark Salmela: Fiction

Is Banjo Kazooie going to drive console sales? No. What else does Microsoft have to drive sales in 2008? If people didn't buy the 360 for Oblivion in 2006 or Mass Effect in 2007, then Fable 2 isn't going to convince RPG fans to buy one in 2008. If they didn't buy a 360 for Gears of War in 2006 or one in 2007 for Halo 3, there isn't going to be some big exclusive in 2008 that'll bring in FPS fans. I'm not saying these games won't sell well, but they will not sell 360's. People who are going to buy Fable 2 already own a 360. The 360 will still sell decently well in 2008, but now it's almost a word of mouth situation where friends are convincing people that they need to join them online with a 360.

Mike Minotti: Fiction

2008 may hurt Microsoft in terms of exclusives. It looks like their biggest chip is Fable 2, a sequel to a game that most would describe as "disappointing." It won't push nearly as many systems as Gears of War or Halo 3 did. Now, Microsoft seems set on trying to get the casuals to buy 360s. This endeavor will fail miserably. Casual gamers will never look to a 360 for casual games. Wii is the name of casual games. It's pointless to try to compete with that. Microsoft needs games that appeal to the fan base they already have, meaning they need more epic shooters and western RPGs. Right now, Fable 2 by itself may not be enough. Banjo Kazooie will bomb as badly as Viva Pinata. That franchise hasn't been relevant for years. It was cute when it was a Mario 64 clone back when Nintendo published it, but now it would pretty much be blatant plagiarism.

Theo Fraser: Fiction

The era of big-time exclusives seems to be coming to an end. Next-gen games are just costing so much money to develop these days, and developers don't want to limit their sales or alienate potential buyers by limiting their audience to the owners of just one console. And whilst in the past Microsoft has done a good job of securing a couple of major exclusives, they don't seem to have much on the cards for this year. Admittedly, Fable 2 is something to get genuinely excited about, although I still wouldn't call that much of an exclusive as it's still being developed for the PC. Aside from that, however, the 360 has got very little. As both Mark and Mike pointed out, the Banjo Kazooie ship sailed years ago, and I don't think the market is that bothered about it coming out now. Anyway, it's mainly just the casual gamers who weren't swayed by Halo 3, and in that regard the 360 doesn't have much to offer in the coming year.

Score: 1 for 2


3. Nintendo's success with the Wii will continue through 2008.

Mark Salmela: Fact

Why wouldn't it? Wii Fit and Super Smash Bros. Brawl will keep Wiis off shelves for the first 6 months, and I'm sure Nintendo's got some sort of plan to keep interest high in the holiday 2008 season. I'm sure they'll find some convenient excuse as to why Wiis are still in short supply and the media will still be in love with it. With that said, I think Sony will close the gap on Wii sales and Microsoft will stay near Nintendo but Nintendo will be right around 20 million units sold by this time next year.

Mike Minotti: Fact

I completely agree with Mark. Wii Fit is going to usher in a whole new group of buyers. Mark my words - you'll see Wii Fit getting exposure on the likes of Opera. Smash Bros. is going to keep the die-hard Nintendo fans more than happy, as will Mario Kart. The latter-half of the year is a bit more mysterious, but I'm sure Nintendo has something planned.

Theo Fraser: Fact

With AAA titles such as Super Mario Galaxy and Metroid Prime 3 being released in 2007, it's hard to tell if they'll be quite as successful as they were this year, but there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Nintendo will pull in another ultra-profitable year in 2008. Above all else, I think the one thing that will see a boost in 2008 is software sales. There are boatloads of Wiis sitting out there in front of people's TVs with literally just Wii Sports in them. The ratio of Wii sales to software sales almost doesn't make sense, but with Wii Fit on the horizon, that looks set to change, as that has all the makings of being the next "must buy" game for casual/non-gamers. Super Smash Bros. Brawl is of course the other major Nintendo title to see a release in '08, and I'm confidently predicting sales beyond Mario Galaxy and Metroid Prime 3 combined. The Wii's success is showing no signs of slowing down just yet; in fact, it stands a very good chance of picking up in the coming year.

Score: 2 for 3



4. Nintendo's lineup of games this year was impressive when compared to the competition's.

Theo Fraser: Fact

I'm not sure the "when compared to the competition's" qualifier is that significant. Nintendo had a tremendous lineup of games in 2007, full stop. They shipped Super Mario Galaxy, which in itself would probably be enough to at least rival what the competition were offering. But we also saw the final chapter in the Metroid Prime series, and another classic installment of the Zelda franchise, this time on DS, offering a fresh approach and varied gameplay. Third party efforts grew increasingly stronger as the year progressed, and Zack & Wiki is a prime example of that, as it is one of the finest games on the system right now. Overall, third party software might be more reliable on other platforms, but games like Zack & Wiki show that developers enjoy trying something different for the Wii. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, but you simply won't find these types of innovative or experimental games on the 360 or PS3. Personally, if you offer me something innovative and fresh, I'm much more likely to be impressed.

Mark Salmela: Fact

The first party selection of games was awesome this year. Hell, any year where we get a new Zelda (DS), a new Mario, a new Metroid, and a new Mario RPG (though Super Paper Mario changed up the formula a little bit) you're in for a good year. Now, despite what Theo says, I think the Wii had a humiliating year in terms of third party games. Zack and Wiki didn't even sell enough copies to cover the costs of the box art. Also, with games like Ninjabread Man, Offroad Extreme Special Edition, and all of the other shovelware that people put out to make a quick buck, Nintendo better clean up their act on what they allow on the Wii or they're going to run the risk of overrunning the market like the Atari 2600 did. Some people may think all of these games can't hurt but if you look at history, Atari never recovered after the fall of the 2600.

Mike Minotti: Fiction

I guess this is where I begin to really sound like the "Xbox guy." As much as I enjoyed Super Mario Galaxy, it by itself does not make the Wii line-up more impressive than Microsoft's. Microsoft had Halo 3, BioShock, Crackdown, and Mass Effect as exclusives. They also had multi-platform games like The Orange Box, Call of Duty 4, and Assassin's Creed. I'm not saying that the Wii didn't have a good line-up. It just wasn't as good as Microsoft's.

Score: 2 for 4


5. Sony will not have to rely on Metal Gear Solid 4 to move systems next year.

Theo Fraser: Fact

Metal Gear will be a big factor in shifting PS3s next year, no doubt, but there are more than a few alternatives on the release schedule that'll entice potential buyers. Gran Turismo is always regarded as a "killer app," and online play could be the clincher in getting people to fork over the cash for a PS3. You can't forget Tekken 6 - that's looking awesome and is a favorite with beat 'em up fans. Motorstorm has asserted itself as a great PS3 franchise, so the sequel could do very well indeed. Final Fantasy XIII is of course the other "big one" of the year, solidifying the PS3 as the place to go for quality RPGs. Then you've got titles like Haze and Killzone 2, and I've got a feeling LittleBigPlanet could be a massive hit with casual gamers, potentially nicking a few customers away from Nintendo. Sure, MGS4 will likely be the big hitter for PS3 in 2008, but Sony won't have to put all their eggs in one basket. I wouldn't be worried at all if I were Sony; they've got a very strong year ahead of them.

Mark Salmela: Fact

I couldn't agree with Theo more. Add in whatever Team ICO is working on and your line-up is pretty much set. Well, actually, I take that back. The last time Sony got confident we ended up with the disaster that was the PS3 launch. So ummm... keep working hard Sony and get us more and better games.

Mike Minotti: Fact

Metal Gear Solid 4 is going to move some systems, sure, but you can't expect it to put Sony into 2nd place. It can't just be one thing. It's going to be MGS4, plus Home, plus LittleBigPlanet, plus Gran Turismo, and whatever else they have planned. Remember, even Halo 3 only helped move systems significantly for one month. It can't just be one game.

Score: 3 for 5


6. In 2008, the Xbox 360 will continue to sell more software than the Wii and PS3.

Theo Fraser: Fact

I'm judging this based on the fact that in terms of third-party multi-platform software, the 360 consistently seems to be getting the best versions. Xbox Live appears to be a more stable system than the Playstation Network for developers, made clear by the fact that Virtua Fighter 5 benefited on the 360 by having the massive bonus of online play included. Not everyone goes crazy for online play, but if by some chance you own all three consoles, you're obviously going to buy the "definitive" version of a game - the one that gives you the most bang for your buck. More often than not, the Xbox 360 version of a multi-platform title has the honor of being that game. So Microsoft wins out in that respect, but then you also have the 360 exclusives, such as the arrival of Too Human, which was first started when dinosaurs still roamed the planet. The Wii and PS3 will likely be close behind, but the 360 has a high likelihood of staying in pole position in terms of software sales.

Mark Salmela: Fact

I say fact just because 2007 was such a poor year for PS3 multiplatform games. Sony is in a pretty big hole right now because gamers already have it drilled into their skulls that 360 versions of games > PS3 versions. Burnout Paradise and Devil May Cry 4 look better on the PS3 which will help, but it's still going to take a lot more than two decent showings to convince people to buy the PS3 version. I know for myself that a lot of multiplatform purchases like the Call of Duty games are going to be 360 for me just because my friends all have 360s and I want to play with them. So even if developers manage to make the 360 and PS3 versions of games equal people like myself will run into the problem of favoring the 360 version because they want to play with their friends.

Mike Minotti: Fiction

Here's the thing though guys - Wii games have legs. Wii Play, which came out last February, is still a top seller every month, and will continue to be. Wii Fit will be just as big, if not bigger. Smash Bros. and Mario Kart are to sell big numbers as well. Plus, there are all of those mini-game collections. They may not make top ten lists, but there are a lot of them, and a good deal of them turn a profit. Plus, 2008 will be the year where we see a lot of 3rd party games that were put into production as soon as it was clear that the Wii was a hit. The 3rd parties are looking to capitalize on the Wii's success. If they market their games right, they will do just that.

Score: 3 for 6



7. Microsoft had a successful year

Mike Minotti: Fact

Of course it was successful. Sure, the 360 can't keep up with the Wii in terms of sales, but Microsoft has gone on record a handful of times saying that their big competition is Sony. They're exactly right. There are a lot of people who will buy a Wii and yet have no interest in another system. However, there are plenty of people who will buy either a 360 or a PS3. Since the 360 has been able to outsell the PS3 consistently, you have to believe that the guys at Microsoft are happy. Microsoft also had a great publishing year, most notably with Halo 3, which broke all kinds of records. I think Microsoft is in a very good position to make a profit out of this console generation .That is unless their push for casual games doesn't hurt them too badly.

Theo Fraser: Fact

As Mike pointed out, the release of Halo 3 was of course a big deal for Microsoft, breaking various sales records and bringing the rest of the entertainment industry to a grinding halt (such as the film industry, which dropped to an all-new low during the weekend Halo 3 went on sale). I think it's been a successful year overall for all 3 major companies, and while I wouldn't pick Microsoft as having the "best" year of all of them, I'd say that this wasn't even close to being a bad year for Bill Gates and co. They re-vitalized sales for the system with a bunch of price cuts, and software saw a boom with titles such as Bioshock and Mass Effect. I also recall them looking the best coming out of this year's E3, showing off some great games to whet our appetites for the future. There's no question about it really - Microsoft had a very successful year.

Mark Salmela: Fiction

Let's make this one a little interesting and get some hate mail directed my way. I'm going to spice it up a little here. The Xbox 360 was released a calendar year ahead of the competition. The last time we saw something like this was when the PS2 was released a year (maybe a little more) ahead of the Gamecube and the original Xbox. Now, what happened with the PS2? It took the lead and never let go; the PS2 consistently outsold the competition and the competitors never came close to competing. The 360 was released a calendar year ahead of the PS3 and Wii and what do they do? They already lost their entire year's lead to the Wii and are now in second place. Not only that, but if you take the first year of sales for the PS3 and compare them to the first year of sales for the 360, the PS3 has done better then the 360. Add the 3-red-lights problem and Microsoft isn't doing nearly as well as they should. Their 2008 line-up is nothing compared to the competition and Sony is looking to come back in 2008. Microsoft had one goal for 2007, and that is to make the gap unreachable for the PS3, and they failed to do that. So there you go, Microsoft did not have a successful enough year to shut out Sony, and Sony's FINALLY going to come out swinging. Watch out Microsoft, you're about to be Dreamcasted.

Score: 3 for 7


8. No 3rd party game released for the Wii in 2008 will come close to matching the sales numbers of either Super Smash Bros. Brawl or Mario Kart Wii.

Mike Minotti: Fact

Actually, I think Nintendo's best seller next year is going to be Wii Fit. If you don't believe me, then look at the sales numbers for Wii Play. Now, while I don't think any 3rd party games will do as well as the Nintendo ones, some are sure to make some money. Guitar Hero 3 is doing very well on the Wii. I expect Guitar Hero 4 will sell just as well. Besides that, anything else will be a surprise. Still, considering where Nintendo is now, I'm expecting some suprises.

Theo Fraser: Fact

Nintendo does have some top 3rd party releases coming out for the Wii in 2008. I'll point that out straight away. No More Heroes is going to rock your socks off early in the year, and then we can look forward to Star Wars: The Force Unleashed, the various Final Fantasy outings Square Enix has planned for us, and Capcom's port of Okami down the line. But going up against something like Smash Bros. or Mario Kart, they simply don't stand a chance of matching sales. I'd like to remind everyone that Super Smash Bros. Melee is still the highest selling Gamecube game of all time. Brawl improves upon its predecessor in every imaginable way, and is open to a much wider audience thanks to the Wii's unmitigated success. I fully expect Brawl to hit Melee out of the park in terms of breaking sales records, and with that in mind, I can't see a 3rd party title out-doing that. There's a very slight possibility that something could gain some ground against Mario Kart Wii sales, as I get the feeling that Mario Kart is losing its novelty and will not be the "console-shifter" it once was as a franchise. It's a proven commodity, so it'll still sell incredibly well, but I just don't think Nintendo should rely on it. Still, for a third party game to match Mario Kart's sales, it'll have to be EXTREMELY good, and I haven't really seen anything on the horizon that is destined for blow-away success.

Mark Salmela: Fact

Unless something huge like a Bungie produced title (which won't happen) came to the Wii, there's no way any 3rd party game can match the hype and sales Brawl will bring. Wii Fit, Animal Crossing, and Super Mario Kart Wii are the only other big games coming in 2008, and none of those can touch Brawl. As for Mr. Minotti, Wii Fit doesn't benefit from being a $10 game with a Wiimote - the balance board is an entirely new product. Not to mention Nintendo has already indicated that the balance board will cost more than $50 and it won't do the type of numbers Wii Play did.

Score: 4 for 8


9. 2008 is Sony's year to shine.

Mike Minotti: Fact

It's frankly now or never for Sony. In 2008 they will have Metal Gear Solid 4 and hopefully the two Final Fantasy XIII games. They'll have Home. They'll have LittleBigPlanet. Blu-ray support keeps increasing. 2008 will be Sony's big chance to regain some lost ground. A lot of it depends on them keeping the exclusives they have, and they'll have to bring the price down at least one more time before 2008 is done.

Theo Fraser: Fact

At least, it really HAS to be, because they could be in pretty steep trouble if they don't deliver a stellar year. Fortunately, I don't really see that happening. MGS4 is obviously the "killer app," but with LittleBigPlanet, Final Fantasy XIII, Tekken 6, and Gran Turismo all on their way, Sony has its bases covered. With so many big name titles coming out this year, they'll be shifting consoles and software aplenty, and have the chance to really step up and reach the highs that Nintendo and Microsoft have already experienced.

Mark Salmela: Fact

I can't say it better myself. "Now or Never" has never been a better fit for Sony. They live or die by 2008. Metal Gear Solid 4, Final Fintasy XIII and Final Fantasy Versus XIII, Gran Turismo 5, Home, Little Big Planet, Tekken 6, Resistance 2, whatever Naughty Dog will make now that Uncharted's done, whatever Team ICO's working on, God of War 3 (though that's likely 2009) - Sony's coming out swinging. 2008 is the year of revenge for Sony, and someone's about to get Dreamcasted.

Score: 5 for 9



We have a final score of 5 for 9. Now, it's been said that the generic lifeform browses past Fact or Fiction columns regularly while waiting for new test subjects. It might be impressed with those who have similar interests, so, if you, [subject name here], want to increase your chances of having your cake and eating it too, make sure that you come back next time for more Fact or Fiction!