411 Games Fact or Fiction 03.09.09: DSi, New Xbox Experience, PS3 Sales and More

Posted by Ramon Aranda on 03.09.2009

Rod meets Derek in this weeks FoF as they discuss whether or not the DSi download service will do well in North America, the importance of exclusivity and the 360's sales figures in Japan among other topics.



1. You think the downloadable service on the Nintendo DSi will be successful in North America.



Rod Oracheski: FICTION - The potential is there, I suppose, though the only game I've actually heard about is the $5 Wario one that uses the camera. I'm not sure the new system itself is a lock to get the same kind of widespread adoption past Nintendo handhelds have gotten, given today's economy, but I guess Nintendo fans are pretty rabid about buying anything and everything with the big N on it.

Even if the system sees widespread adoption, one thing that will hinder adoption of the service is the lack of Wi-Fi in a lot of areas. While every major center is blanketed with multiple free Wi-Fi zones, it's just not that way in smaller population centers. Some people just won't have the ability to connect their DSi to the online service, regardless of whether they're willing to or not.

Derek Robbins: FACT - The thing is Nintendo expects this new DS to sell very well. And why shouldn`t it? The DS is the hottest system in the world right now. I mean I have seen people who would never own a gaming system own a DS. Nintendo realizes this and will probably market the DSi to those people. One of the focal points of this would be the downloadables. If done properly and to the right market I think that the DSi will be a huge hit.

Score: 0 for 1

2. Having exclusives really isn't that important anymore.



Rod Oracheski: FACT - The relative lack of impact that major exclusives like Metal Gear Solid 4 have shown on console sales seems to show exclusives just don't have the power to swing undecided buyers compared to other factors like a price drop. These days, having exclusives is a lot less important than just having games - lots of them. Exclusives are nice, but third-party titles make up 90+% of the console's library – and that's what gets people buying. Nobody wants to spend $300-400 to play one game - but they might if they see enough other games they want to get as well.

Derek Robbins: FICTION - Indeed most of the top tier games this generation are cross platform. The thing is that not the entire library is comprised of these titles. Exclusive titles are important because they can sort of be the deal breaker. For instance, let's say that I really wanted to get the new Prince of Persia and GTAIV. Obviously I will get them no matter which system I choose. That is when exclusives brokerage the deal. Would I rather play Halo 3 or MGS 4? I also think that price can be big at this juncture. If no exclusive entertains me I will go with the cheaper option. So for that reason exclusives are quite important. They determine my console of choice as a consumer.

Score: 0 for 2

3. Developer should just stop with the movie licensed titles...they usually suck anyway.



Rod Oracheski: FICTION - Never going to happen - and why should it? If they didn't make movie licensed games, we'd never have gotten gems like Spider-Man 2, or Chronicles of Riddick: Escape from Butcher's Bay! Yeah, there's some garbage in there as well, but it's no worse than any other shovelware out there. Which is worse - Iron Man or Billy the Wizard?

Derek Robbins: FICTION - The thing here is that while most movie games are bad, they still have a following. If they did not sell well they would not be made. You see, in my opinion these kind of games are important because companies make money off of them. Developers should just stop making bad games - that would eliminate the issue entirely. The money that they make off of these hollywood games can help companies pay for more titles that appeal to us more hardcore gamers. Plus as Rod said there are some good ones out there like Riddick. That makes for a good surprise. So no, I don't wanna see movie games end. They must continue!

Score: 1 for 3

SWITCH!

4. You expect the Xbox 360 to continue doing well in Japan throughout the year.



Derek Robbins: FICTION - The current success of the 360 in Japan has to do with the release of popular JRPG franchises on the console. Star Ocean is pretty renowned and its release was bound to win over some converts. Now that it's all done with though, I really don't see the 360's success lasting over there. In the long run, Japanese gamers don't tend to play the games that American gamers do and, as a whole, I would say that the 360 is a console that appeals more to American tastes. If Final Fantasy XIII was being released for the 360 in Japan - as it is doing in the US - I think this could be a different case. The 360 costs less than the PS3 and Japanese gamers, particularly in these troubled times, and would probably flock to it en masse in order to experience the newest Final Fantasy. Since this is not the case though, the 360's success will be short lived. That is to say, unless Square Enix decides to release a new Dragon Quest on it or something.

Rod Oracheski: FICTION - Like other consoles in Japan, the 360 will get a sales spike when there's a release that people want, then sink back down. It's a market that's shifting (or arguably already shifted) away from the consoles and into handhelds - something that just doesn't seem to be the case anywhere else.

If the 360 gets another big RPG release it'll jump back up. Maybe Lost Planet 2 will give it another bump. But I wouldn't expect this latest bump to be a sign of things turning around.

Score: 2 for 4

5. The inevitable price drop for the PS3 will increase sales drastically.



Derek Robbins: FACT - Yeah, there is no doubt in my mind that it will. Analysts right now are saying that they expect a $100 dollars price drop any day now. Remember when the 360 had their big price drop last year and what kind of business it did for them? I think the PS3 will be in the same boat. Especially considering that a fully souped up PS3 will now cost as much as a fully souped up X-Box 360. The only thing Sony should be concerned about is the idea that a $200 dollar no-frills 360 still might appeal to the penny-pinch gamer. After all, you can buy an X-Box 360 RIGHT NOW and get the hard drive and stuff later. While I do think PS3 sales will absolutely spike - and with it PS3 game sales, MGS 4 with its imminent "greatest hits" release will probably sell even more - Sony should look into making a PS3 model that allows you to buy a hard drive separately. This way, they could go head-to-head with Microsoft in terms of price. They could even claim to have the advantage since the no-frills PS3 can go online right out of the box. What they decide to do could be very interesting. I hope the announcement is made soon.

Rod Oracheski: FICTION - A price drop will increase sales, but how much depends on how big the drop is. I've heard rumours it's $50, while others swear it'll be $100. Given Sony's somewhat shaky financial standing, I'm not sure they can afford to slash the price by $100 - but their equally shaky sales might force them to.

They'll never offer a HDD-less PS3, as the system requires it for the bulk of its functionality (including online access) and I don't know that it could run a game at all without one due to the need for caching and installs. I could see them dropping in a cheap 20 GB again, since people can upgrade them fairly easily, but an SKU without one at all just isn't going to happen. People complain (and rightly so) about the lack of any kind of HD cables and the lack of PS2 compatibility, can you imagine what it'd be like when they found out their new PS3 can't play games at all until they buy a HDD?

Sony's in a tight spot, knowing that whenever they drop the price of their system Microsoft can easily afford to match that drop, thus leaving them in the same spot they were in before. It might be tempting for Sony, especially given their recent massive reorganization, to forego a price drop they can't afford and simply accept whatever market share they end up with, concentrating instead on making the PS3 profitable - even if that means staying in third place.

Score: 2 for 5

6. You have no complaints about the new dashboard for the Xbox 360.



Derek Robbins: FACT - The 360 is now even easier to navigate through and I'm not exactly scared of change. Some people take these dash board updates as a sign that the 360 could be as "future proof" as the PS3. You know, you'd have the ability to constantly upgrade your console to meet new times and what not. It's hard to disagree given the ease of use of this thing. I wish I had more to comment on this question, but really, things are going good and I have no complaints. I know, right? Me? No complaints? Microsoft!? WHEN DID JOE ROCHE START WRITING FOR ME!? AAAAAAGH.

Rod Oracheski: FACT - It's been fine. Like I said before it launched though, it's the UI...is there really anyone who gets excited or upset about a functional UI? The 'hardcore' gamers I saw crying about being unable to find anything seem to have stopped after taking a look around the new dashboard, and the 'casual' ones (like my wife) don't seem to have any problem finding the things they want.

I like the new additions. Adding in Parties was nice, as is Netflix integration and having the option to install games to the HDD, and it all seems to work well so I'm pretty happy with the changes. I'm sure there's something they could add, but nothing springs to mind.

Final Score: 3 for 6 - Truly these two wouldn't likely fair well in a co-op game or even a debate against each other. Good times!

That'll do it for this week's Fact or Fiction so tune in next week for another dose of writers and set of questions. Until then, let us know what you think...fact or fiction?