Z At The Movies 11.05.02: Oscar Predictions

Posted by Jacob Ziegler on 11.05.2002

Taking a look inside my crystal ball this week, I noticed something that appears around this time every year … Oscar predictions!

Z At the Movies: Oscar Predictions

This will be the first in my series of Oscar predictions, which I will update once a month. I’ll take a look at the dozen top contenders in the six major categories (picture, director, actor, actress, supporting actor, and supporting actress) and analyze their chances. Without further ado, here they are, beginning with best picture.

Best Picture

Antwone Fisher: The trailer for this movie looks great, and it is one of those inspirational stories Oscar just loves. It is also the first time Denzel Washington has directed a movie, and Oscar obviously loves him. It is a story about a young black man overcoming adversity, and after last year’s awards it is clear the academy wants to recognize more films featuring black actors. This is certainly one of them.

Catch Me If You Can: Only three words need to be said here: Spielberg, Hanks, DiCaprio. If that’s not a good Oscar pedigree, I don’t know what is.

Chicago: After last year’s success of Moulin Rouge!, the time is right for a musical of this scope to step into Oscar’s limelight. Chicago is a well-known and well-respected play, and the trailer looks great.

The Emperor’s Club: The trailer looks to have a very Dead Poets Society feel to it, and that movie did well at the Oscars. Feel-good tales tend to do better in the big categories, and this film certainly looks to fall into that category.

Far From Heaven: The reviews for this movie have been phenomenal thus far, and the cast looks great. But it seems like this film is destined to be honored in the writing and acting categories, but I would not be surprised to see it in the top five.

Gangs of New York: Martin Scorses’s newest film is as close to a lock as we have going into the Oscars in any category. It finally has a release date, and advance screenings have yielded rave reviews. Many think this could finally be Scorsese’s year.

The Hours: This is another movie garnering great reviews, but will likely wind up with screenplay and acting nominations.

The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers: Last year’s Fellowship of the Ring scored thirteen nominations, but this year’s competition is much stiffer. But on the other hand, this installment looks to be better than Fellowship, so it is very possible this sequel will get a rare nomination.

The Pianist: Depending on the year, art films can do extremely well at the Oscars (1996 is a good example). This is the smallest, artiest film of the dozen I chose, but it is also Roman Polankski’s (Chinatown) return to directing, so its chances are good.

Punch-Drunk Love: P.T. Anderson always seems right on the verge of a best picture/director nomination, and this year is no different. His latest film has gotten excellent reviews, but it has two major hindrances: Adam Sandler stars and it is a romantic comedy. But it is still possible for this film to pull off an upset.

Road to Perdition: Last time Sam Mendes directed a movie, it scored eight nominations and won five, including best picture. That movie was American Beauty, so Mendes is obviously liked by the Academy. Add to that Tom Hanks, Paul Newman and Jude Law giving great performances, and this film looks almost like a sure thing.

Solaris: Much like Catch Me If You Can, only two words are needed to describe this movie’s Oscar chances: James Cameron (produced) and Steven Soderbergh (directed).

Current Picks: Antwone Fisher, Catch Me If You Can, Chicago, Gangs of New York, and Road to Perdition.

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, Punch-Drunk Love: Anderson has always been on the fringes of a nomination here, but his last two films were deemed too graphic (Boogie Nights) or too bizarre (Magnolia). Punch-Drunk Love is still bizarre, but has more mainstream appeal.

Stephen Daldry, The Hours: Daldry scored a somewhat surprising nomination two years ago for Billy Elliot, and this film has already gotten much better reviews, so it is very possible he could score another nod here.

Todd Haynes, Far From Heaven: Haynes is getting some good notices for his directorial work here, including pulling a career performance from Dennis Quaid. But this film is more likely to get noticed in the screenplay and acting categories.

Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers: Not often do directors score nominations two straight years and for a sequel, but if anyone can do it, it is Jackson with this movie.

Spike Jonze, Adaptation: Jonze scored a nomination three years ago for the quirky Being John Malkovich, so it is possible he could score another nomination for a similar film. It is not likely, but it is assured a nomination in the screenplay category.

Rob Marshall, Chicago: This looks like a pretty good bet because of the sheer daunting nature of the task. Big productions tend to get noticed in this category, and Marshall is a first-time director, which tends to bode well at Oscar time.

Sam Mendes, Road to Perdition: Mendes already scored big once with American Beauty, and it appears very likely he will do so again.

Roman Polanski, The Pianist: Polanski is a highly respected auteur, and should be considered for a nomination every time he comes out with a film (except his last outing, The Ninth Gate). Oscar loves to honor the veteran, especially one who has never won an Oscar.

Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York: Can you say sure thing?

Steven Soderbergh, Solaris: He is one of very few directors to be nominated twice in the same year. He’s always a threat for his serious movies.

Steven Spielberg, Catch Me If You Can: Looks like a great story, and with the restoration of ET, and this summer’s successful and acclaimed Minority Report, it looks like a good year to be Spielberg.

Denzel Washington, Antwone Fisher: Washington is certainly an Oscar darling, and it doesn’t hurt that his directorial debut looks awesome and is a front runner for best picture.

Current Picks: Rob Marshall, Sam Mendes, Roman Polanski, Martin Scorsese, and Steven Spielberg

Best Actor

Adrien Brody, The Pianist: This could be one of those break-out roles that Oscar loves to honor. Brody received good notices for his role in Terrence Malick’s The Thin Red Line, and this could be just the movie to catapult him to bigger things.

Nicolas Cage, Adaptation: Cage has been absent from this category since his 1995 win, due mostly to his lack of good films. This film looks incredibly original, and Cage has duel parts, which help his chances.

Michael Caine, The Quiet American: Caine is one of the most respected actors in the world, and has been honored twice before with Oscars, but never in the leading category. Caine is always a safe bet.

Daniel-Day Lewis, Gangs of New York: He will be nominated, the question is whether the role is leading or supporting. It looks to be leading, and he looks positively great from what I have seen.

Leonardo DiCaprio, Catch Me If You Can: Leo should finally get his first leading actor nomination this year, though there is a question of what film it will be for. I go with Spielberg’s Catch Me If You Can over Scorsese’s Gangs of New York, because it looks like Daniel Day-Lewis will be pushed for that film.

Ralph Fiennes, Spider: Fiennes is one of the best actors in the world, and this film looks sufficiently creepy and strange to net him his third nomination.

Tom Hanks, Road to Perdition: Hanks is a constant threat, and his role in this movie was very against type, a la Denzel Washington last year. But it appears he has a better shot in the supporting actor category for Catch Me If You Can.

Greg Kinnear, Auto Focus: Speaking of against type, Kinnear plays sex addict Bob Crane in this film by Paul Schrader. It looks like an awesome performance, and has gotten great reviews thus far. Kinnear has been nominated once before, so his chances look good.

Kevin Kline, The Emperor’s Club: Many feel Kline should have scored a nomination last year, and the Academy is not above giving nominations for past mistakes. Another factor Kline has going is that he has never won the leading actor Oscar, so it could be one of the “career” awards for him.

Derek Luke, Antwone Fisher: This is Luke’s first performance, and it looks like a good part backed by good direction from Washington.

Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt: Nicholson has only been nominated eleven times, with three wins, so it’s about damn time the Academy took notice of this up-and-comer.

Robin Williams, One Hour Photo: This is another remarkable against-type performance, from a man who had two great ones this year. The only problem is the luke-warm reception to the movie, but Williams is a proven commodity with the Academy.

Current Picks: Michael Caine, Daniel Day-Lewis, Leonardo DiCaprio, Greg Kinnear, and Jack Nicholson

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Heaven: Blanchett has been one of the most consistent actresses in Hollywood since her breakout performance in Elizabeth four years ago. She is always a threat, and this film looks to be quite good.

Salma Hayek, Frida: Known more for her sex-pot roles in films like Desperado, Hayek is getting some good notices for this film, and her character is based on a real person, a good sign with the Academy.

Nicole Kidman, The Hours: Kidman is one of the hottest actresses on the circuit right now, and while I think she will be nominated this year for this film, it will more likely be in the supporting actress category.

Diane Lane, Unfaithful: This is a tough one to call, because most reactions to the movie have been incredibly negative, but her performance has gotten positive reviews. She has been a career B-actor looking for a breakout part, and Oscar just might recognize it.

Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven: With two nominations since 1997, it is safe to say that the Academy likes her. This film is said to be her best work ever, so it seems highly likely she will be recognized when the nominations are announced in February.

Samantha Morton, Morvern Callar: Morton was nominated three years ago for an awesome performance in Woody Allen’s Sweet and Lowdown, and she had another good performance this summer in Minority Report. This could be her year to get recognized.

Michelle Pfeiffer, White Oleander: Like Kidman, Pfeiffer is a pretty safe bet for a nom, just in the supporting category. But this could swing lead depending on the campaign.

Susan Sarandon, Moonlight Mile: Another performance that could go either lead or supporting. Whichever it goes (I think it will be a lead), it is some of Sarandon’s best work, she’s a legend, and the Academy loves her. She should be nominated.

Meryl Streep, The Hours: Much like that young Nicholson fella, Streep is poised to get her big break this year by scoring her thirteenth nomination. It is close to a sure thing.

Naomi Watts, The Ring: Watts really should have scored a nomination last year for Mulholland Drive, and the Academy could make up for that this year. But the film has received luke-warm to awful reviews, and horror films rarely make a splash in the acting categories.

Renee Zellweger, Chicago: After scoring her first nomination last year, Zellweger is on an even bigger upswing than she was before. Chicago looks to score nominations across the board, and her performance is almost a sure thing.

Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago: Zeta-Jones should definitely be nominated for this film, but it is more likely to be in the supporting category.

Current Picks: Diane Lane, Julianne Moore, Susan Sarandon, Meryl Streep, and Renee Zellweger

Best Supporting Actor

Chris Cooper, Adaptation: Cooper has been dishing out great performances in Oscar friendly movies for years, yet has never been nominated. Now with the backing of Spike Jonze, Cooper is on the fringes of his first nomination.

Willem Dafoe, Auto Focus: Dafoe has been nominated twice before, and is one of the most respected actors around. This film looks quirky (not to mention good) enough for him to score his third nomination.

Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York: Day-Lewis will be nominated. It could be in supporting, but it will more likely be leading.

Richard Gere, Chicago: Gere looks to steal the show in a movie about stealing the show. He has never been nominated, and the time and movie seem right.

Tom Hanks, Catch Me If You Can: Hanks is one of the most beloved actors of all-time, and he looks to really ham it up in his role here. The last time Hanks teamed with Spielberg, they did alright.

Ed Harris, The Hours: Harris has been nominated three times without winning, so this could finally be his time. Despite the role’s brevity, I hear he is absolutely electric. Performances like that are hard to ignore.

Dustin Hoffman, Moonlight Mile: Hoffman has not been in a film at all in three years, let alone a good one. This is a great film, and a wonderful subdued performance from the seven-time Oscar nominee. It may not be flashy enough, but it is Dustin Hoffman so don’t count him out.

Ray Liotta, Narc: Liotta has been bouncing back and forth between making respected and abysmal films, but this year he looks to have a great performance in this movie. It may be too small to get noticed, but Liotta could just sneak in.

Paul Newman, Road to Perdition: This is the one sure thing in this category, and most likely to win at this point. Newman is a legend, and he has not made many movies in the last few years. His performance was undoubtedly the highlight of an otherwise average movie.

Randy Quaid, Far From Heaven: This is probably the second most likely of all these choices. Quaid has been making better films over the last few years, and a nomination would be a great accomplishment for his hard work. It also does not hurt that he had another well-respected performance, in The Rookie earlier this year.

Denzel Washington, Antwone Fisher: The Academy loves him, and he may get points for also directing the movie. It looks like a great performance by the trailer.

Robin Williams, Insomnia: This is William’s first great performance of the year. It was critically acclaimed, as was the film. But the film was released in May, and those tend to be forgotten by year’s end. But it is not too far fetched to see Williams in this category.

Current Picks: Richard Gere, Tom Hanks, Ed Harris, Paul Newman, and Randy Quaid

Best Supporting Actress

Kim Basinger, 8 Mile: Last time Basinger teamed up with Curtis Hanson, it resulted in her only nomination and a subsequent win. But this film may seem slight in the voter’s eyes, and this category is exceptionally strong.

Kathy Bates, About Schmidt: Bates is one of the best living actresses, and is already earning praise for her performance in this movie.

Cameron Diaz, Gangs of New York: With this film likely to be a juggernaut, it is likely the twice-snubbed Diaz will finally score her first nomination.

Nicole Kidman, The Hours: Highly acclaimed film, well liked and respected actress, interesting character (Virginia Woolf) equals Nicole’s second nomination.

Queen Latifah, Chicago: She is quietly getting good notices for this film that appears to have flashier roles, but this could finally be her breakout part.

Julianne Moore, The Hours: Moore is consistently giving great performances, and this one looks to be no different. However, she may be overshadowed in this movie by Streep and Kidman, and by her own leading performance in Far From Heaven.

Samantha Morton, Minority Report: Working on a film with Tom Cruise and Steven Spielberg can only do good things for one’s career. Especially when the performance is as essential to the movie as Morton’s is here.

Michelle Pfeiffer, White Oleander: Pfeiffer is getting great reviews, while the movie gets subpar notices. This could hurt her chances, but she has never won, and this is the type of show-stealing performance Oscar usually picks up on.

Susan Sarandon, Moonlight Mile: This is a performance straddling the line between leading and supporting. Hopefully it will land in the leading category, but it could also likely end up here. Wherever it is, it deserves to be nominated.

Mira Sorvino, The Grey Zone: Sorvino has been largely MIA since winning her Oscar in 1995, but she is finally getting good reviews again for her performance in this Tim Blake Nelson film. It may be too small or too bleak for the Academy though.

Emily Watson, Punch-Drunk Love: Watson is very well liked by the Academy (two nominations since 1996), and is always making well reviewed films. Her work here is very good, and very likable, and Anderson has a way of getting at least one of his actors nominated per film. She also had a great performance in Red Dragon, which could only help her chances.

Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago: Many felt she should have been nominated in 2000 for Traffic, so she is almost a sure thing here. It is a very showy role, and she has gone from making slight films to more serious ones in the last few years, so her inclusion in this category is highly likely.

Current Picks: Kathy Bates, Cameron Diaz, Nicole Kidman, Michelle Pfeiffer, and Catherine Zeta-Jones

That about wraps it up for this month’s Oscar predictions. Next month I will do this again, with updates where necessary, and analysis in other categories as well. Until then, see Bowling for Columbine, the most important film of the year, and one of the best. Until next time, good journey!