Z At The Movies 12.21.02: Oscar Predictions Pt. 2

Posted by Jacob Ziegler on 12.21.2002

I’m back once again, from across the Pacific Ocean with an update on what my crystal ball sees for this year’s Oscar awards.

I write this column sipping a Corona, smoking a stogie, and sitting on the deck of a nice little Apartment on the island of Maui. I hope everyone else’s Christmas breaks are going as well as mine. And now, on to the matter at hand, my updated Oscar predictions. This time I whittled the possibilities down to ten instead of twelve, as the race gets tighter.

Best Picture

About Schmidt: This film has gotten nothing but great reviews and it has been steadily building momentum, based mostly on the performance of Jack Nicholson. The last time Jack had a performance this praised, As Good As It Getsscored seven nominations.

Adaptation: Another film whose buzz has continued to grow, it has been given several awards from critics organizations and scored six nominations at the Golden Globes. It may be too quirky for the Academy though, much like the writer/director team’s last effort, 1999’s Being John Malkovich.

Antwone Fisher: The buzz on this movie is still strong, despite being shut out at the Golden Globes. The Academy loves tear-jerker stories like this one, and they love Denzel Washington, its director, so I do not think the goose egg at the Globes totally negates its chances.

Catch Me If You Can: This will certainly be one of the biggest crowd-pleasers of the Oscar bunch, but will that translate to Oscar glory? It failed to score a nomination at the Globes, but it is still a Spielberg movie with Leonardo DiCaprio and Tom Hanks, so its chances are still very good.

Chicago: With the success of Moulin Rouge! last year, it would be no surprise to see this film clean up at the Oscars. It certainly did so at the Globes, and early reviews of the film have been nothing but positive.

Far From Heaven: This is still one of the longer shots on this list, as it may be too arty for the Academy. Failing to get a Golden Globe nomination certainly does not help, but this film has always felt like it will be recognized more in the acting and screenplay areas.

Gangs of New York: Of the ten movies on the list, I am most confident about this one. It has been touted for a nomination all along its tumultuous production, and the reviews have been all good to great.

The Hours: Another film that has earned nothing but raves, it may hard for the Academy to ignore a film with a possible four acting nominations, a screenplay nod, and one for its director. The problem is that the three main parts are for women, and the Academy is not always friendly towards women-based movies, but this one looks too good to ignore.

The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers: A sequel has not been nominated since 1974’s The Godfather, Part II, but if any film can do it, it is this one. The box office numbers will be huge, and it is sure to score loads of nominations in the technical categories.

The Pianist: This film’s chances suddenly look better after a few critic’s awards and a Golden Globe nomination. It may be too dark and bleak for the Academy, but they have honored Roman Polanski films before, and this one just may sneak in there.

Current Predictions: Adaptation, Catch Me If You Can, Chicago, Gangs of New York, and The Hours

Best Director

Stephen Daldry, The Hours: He was nominated for the only other feature film he made, 2000’s Billy Elliot, and this film has a lot more support and much better reviews than that. The film is poised for a screenplay nomination and four possible acting nominations. It would be hard to ignore the director for that.

Todd Haynes, Far From Heaven: Haynes has been a well-respected Indie director for many years, and this film has gotten his best reviews ever. But most of the raves have been directed at Julianne Moore, Dennis Quaid, the art direction and score.

Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers: Even if the film is not nominated, Jackson still has a great chance to be nominated based on the sheer hugeness of the LOTR trilogy.

Spike Jonze, Adaptation: The Academy nominated him before in 1999, and this film has generated even more buzz than Being John Malkovich. With the acting and screenplay nominations almost assured, it seems likely that Jonze will sneak in here for his second nomination.

Rob Marshall, Chicago: This first time director has won raves for this film, but I get the feeling that he will be overlooked (much like Baz Lurhmann was last year). The picture-director nominees hardly ever line up, and it looks like Marshall will be the odd man out.

Sam Mendes, Road to Perdition: Mendes looked like a sure shot earlier this year, but the buzz on this film has waned severely, and its lack of nominations at the Golden Globes hurts its chances here. But the Academy loves his first film (1999’s winner American Beauty) so it is not totally unfeasible to see his name on the short list.

Alexander Payne, About Schmidt: Payne’s momentum has been growing and growing, and his nomination at the Globes helps his chances here. However, his film may be seen more of a triumph in storytelling and acting. His earlier work is well-respected (Citizen Ruth, the brilliant Election), but the time just doesn’t seem to be right for him.

Roman Polanski, The Pianist: Polanski hasn’t been nominated since 1974’s Chinatown, and his latest film is getting great notices. But it may be too small and bleak for the Academy to pick up on.

Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York: I said it last month, and I’ll say it again: sure thing. Nothing has happened to damage his chances.

Steven Spielberg, Catch Me If You Can: I was surprised to see Spielberg left off the list at the Globes, but with Spielberg that means little. He is a contender always, and depending on critical reviews of this movie, Spielberg could easily find his name on this list. The reissue of ET and Minority Report earlier this year help his chances too.

Current Predictions: Stephen Daldry, Peter Jackson, Spike Jonze, Martin Scorsese, and Steven Spielberg

Best Actor

Adrien Brody, The Pianist: He’s getting great notices from critics and scored a Golden Globe nomination, but with as many high profile names in the running this year, he just may be left out.

Nicolas Cage, Adaptation: Not having been nominated (or even in the running for that matter) since his win in 1995 for Leaving Las Vegas, Cage seems to be poised for a nomination here. He plays two characters, twin brothers, each with their own quirks and intricacies. Oscar voters love those roles.

Michael Caine, The Quiet American: Caine is always a contender, and this has been touted as one of his finest performances. He has already won a few critic’s awards and scored a Globe nomination, so his inclusion on this list is very likely.

Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York: There has been some discrepancy as to whether this was a leading or supporting role, but with several critic’s awards and a Globe nomination in the leading category the argument seems to be settled. The performance looks show-stealing, and the Academy loves Day-Lewis (he won in 1989 for My Left Foot and was nominated in 1993 for In the Name of the Father).

Leonardo DiCaprio, Catch Me If You Can: Odd that the young DiCaprio hasn’t been nominated since 1993 (for What’s Eating Gilbert Grape?), but this looks like his year. With the two highest-profile movies of the season, he is bound to be nominated for one. With Day-Lewis taking most of the attention for Gangs, it looks like DiCaprio will score the nom for Spielberg’s holiday offering.

Tom Hanks, Road to Perdition: While this film has really faded from the Oscar radar, it is still Tom Hanks in a serious performance, so he cannot be forgotten.

Richard Harris, My Kingdom: The buzz on this film did not start until Harris’s untimely death earlier this year. It seems unlikely that such a small film will receive any recognition, but it is possible for the Academy to try and honor Harris posthumously.

Derek Luke, Antwone Fisher: Despite being totally shut out at the Globes, Luke and this movie still have a good shot at the Oscars. His performance has earned nothing but raves, and have won a few critic’s awards. However, most of the awards have come in the best newcomer category, which may leave him out of the final five.

Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt: Much like Scorsese, Nicholson’s buzz has done nothing but build, and the critical awards he has received along the way have done nothing but help his chances. Come on, he’s Jack F’N Nicholson.

Edward Norton, The 25th Hour: The buzz on this movie has done nothing but grow, and Norton always seems to sneak in when no one thinks he’ll be nominated (1996 for Primal Fear and 1998 for American History X). The performance has earned raves already, and Norton is quickly becoming one of the most respected actors in Hollywood.

Current Predictions: Nicolas Cage, Michael Caine, Leonardo DiCaprio, Daniel Day-Lewis, and Jack Nicholson

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Heaven: While the film has received little to no press, Blanchett is extremely respected and always a contender for any serious film she does. Appearing in The Two Towers won’t hurt either.

Maggie Gyllenhaal, Secretary: The buzz on this film has been picking up lately, and Gyllenhaal (sister of Jake) has received several critical notices. However, much like Derek Luke they have been in the newcomer category. Her time is yet to come.

Salma Hayek, Frida: The Academy loves to nominate actors playing real people in biopics, and this film has received great notices. However, the Academy may not be ready to embrace Hayek as a serious actress.

Nicole Kidman, The Hours: After finally scoring her first nomination last year for Moulin Rouge!, Kidman seems certain for another one this year. The reviews for this film have all been great, and Kidman’s performance has been cited as perhaps the best of her career.

Diane Lane, Unfaithful: Lane’s performance has been called the only good part of her film, and she seems to be on the verge of joining the A-list. However, the film opened in theaters a long time ago, and the Academy tends not to reward films as bad as this one, no matter how good Lane may be in it.

Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven: Most of the praise for this movie has been directed at Moore, and she has already nabbed several critical awards. Also, her performance in The Hours has a good chance to be nominated, making her look that much better.

Samantha Morton, Morvarn Callar: Like Blanchett, this film has received very little press. But Morton has been nominated before, and is much better known after her performance in this summer’s Minority Report. She could pull of a nomination here, but it would be a huge upset.

Meryl Streep, The Hours: Much like Nicholson, Streep can do no wrong. Heck, if she can get nominated for Music of the Heart she should be nominated for a performance that has gotten as much praise as this one.

Nia Vardalos, My Big Fat Greek Wedding: The Academy loves Cinderella stories, and this sure is one. Writing the screenplay helps Vardalos in this category as well (like in 1996 when Billy Bob Thornton was nominated as a writer and lead actor for Sling Blade). The success story of the year will have to be noticed somewhere.

Renee Zellweger, Chicago: After finally breaking through with her first nomination last year for Bridget Jones’s Diary, Zellweger looks to turn heads in this year’s big-time musical. A Golden Globe nomination and general praise for the film bodes well for her chances.

Current Predictions: Nicole Kidman, Julianne Moore, Meryl Streep, Nia Vardalos, and Renee Zellweger

Best Supporting Actor

Chris Cooper, Adaptation: Having won almost every critic’s award thus far and a Golden Globe nomination, Coooper’s nomination looks more and more like a sure thing. In, my money would be on him for the win at this point.

Brian Cox, The 25th Hour: The film has been getting good reviews and the buzz is really picking up. Many feel Cox should have been nominated last year for L.I.E., and the Academy may want to make up to him. He has a large body of work, and they may want to recognized him for that.

Tom Hanks, Catch Me If You Can: Lack of a Golden Globe nomination was a surprise here, but as said before, he is still Tom Hanks acting a Steven Spielberg movie, so his chances are still very good.

Ed Harris, The Hours: Despite little screen time, Harris’s performance has yielded great reviews, and short screen time is not necessarily a hindrance (see Judi Dench in 1998’s Shakespeare in Love). Harris is always a threat.

Ray Liotta, Narc: This film was hardly noticed until Tom Cruise picked up on it and attached his name to it, but it has gotten nothing but raves since. Liotta gained thirty pounds for the role, and looks positively great. He has been a respected actor for a long time, and this may be the role that puts him in the upper echelon.

Alfred Molina, Frida: Molina is another B-list actor who has always had supporting roles in good movies (Chocolat for one) and his performance here has been receiving great reviews. It could be his year to shine.

Paul Newman, Road to Perdition: Despite the film’s waning buzz, Newman
seems almost assured of a nomination. It was certainly the highlight of the film.

Dennis Quaid, Far From Heaven: The buzz has slowed down a bit, but he has still received great reviews, a few critical awards and a Golden Globe nod. He has been around for a long time, and the Academy loves to nominate never-nominated veterans like Quaid. A good performance earlier this year in The Rookie helps too.

John C. Reilly, Chicago: Reilly has been acting in good films for years, but has gone largely unnoticed. His singing and dancing role may finally do the trick this year. He may be the Jim Broadbent of this year, as he also had great performances in The Good Girl, Gangs of New York, and The Hours. It should be hard to ignore that diversity and quality.

Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can: Not nominated since his win in 1978 for The Deer Hunter, Walken has received great notices for playing Leonardo DiCaprio’s father in this movie. With Dreamworks and Spielberg behind him, a nomination for Walken looks pretty good.

Current Predictions: Chris Cooper, Ed Harris, Paul Newman, Dennis Quaid, and John C. Reilly

Best Supporting Actress

Kathy Bates, About Schmidt: This performance and film have gotten nothing but great reviews. Bates is one of the best in the business, and acting alongside the sure to be nominated Jack Nicholson doesn’t hurt matters.

Cameron Diaz, Gangs of New York: Having been overlooked in the past, Diaz looks to score her first nomination this year. If Gangs picks up a pile of nominations, she could be swept up in the process.

Edie Falco, Sunshine State: It has been a good year for stars of TV’s “The Sopranos,” and for Falco it has been no different. However, the film is likely to small and released too long ago to make the final cut.

Queen Latifah, Chicago: A surprise Golden Globe nomination upped Latifah’s chances. However, that is because both Zellweger and Zeta-Jones were in the lead category. Zeta-Jones is likely positioned as supporting for the Oscars, minimizing Latifah’s chances.

Julianne Moore, The Hours: Moore and Meryl Streep look to be the first two actresses to score nominations in both the leading and supporting category in the same year since Holly Hunter and Emma Thompson in 1993. Moore’s performance has been said to be quiet and understated, and perfect compliment to the other projected nominees in this category.

Michelle Pfeiffer, White Oleander: Despite the bad reviews the film has received, Pfeiffer’s performance has been regarded as one of her best, and the Academy has nominated her before. It will be hard for her to sneak in amongst so many high profile movies, but it is very possible.

Miranda Richardson, Spider: A surprising critical award rekindled Richardson’s chances here, but the film is likely too small and too quirky to be recognizded.

Susan Sarandon, Moonlight Mile: Sarandon is one of the most respected actors in Hollywood, and should always be a threat. A surprise Golden Globe nomination for Igby Goes Down increased the buzz on her, but if she is nominated at the Oscars, it will still likely be for Mile, but could be Igby.

Meryl Streep, Adaptation: She’s Meryl F’N Streep. Not much more needs to be said.

Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago: Even though nominated as lead actress at the Golden Globes, she is likely to be placed in the supporting category to clear the way for Renee Zellweger in the leading category. Many feel she should have been nominated for Traffic in 2000, so this could be the Academy’s chance to make up to her.

Current Prediction: Kathy Bates, Cameron Diaz, Julianne Moore, Meryl Streep, and Catherine Zeta-Jones

And that’s it for this round of Oscar predictions. I’ll be back next time with a look at all the other categories, and an update on the big six. Until then, think of me on the beach with a beer and a stogie, and know that I wish all of you were here with me. Good journey!