East Coast Musings 01.11.09: Golden Globe Predictions

Posted by James Craig on 01.11.2009

Looking at the Film categories and making predictions on tonight's Golden Globe Awards

Tonight is one of the bigger nights in the entertainment community as it is this weekend that the Golden Globe Awards are handed out. To some these awards are the best indicator as to what to expect when it comes to Oscar nominations and eventually wins. Others don't prescribe to this notion and I count myself as one of them. If anything, the way in which the Globes separate films into two categories makes it harder to predict as there are often nominations that are pop up that muddle up the picture in terms of narrowing the field. The Globes seem to be the award show that just wants to get as many people nominated as possible and tries so very hard not to hurt any feelings. I imagine that at the very least one other columnist will offer their own picks, but I'm going to do it anyway, at least for the categories tat I will be most interested in myself.

Best Motion Picture - Drama
Nominees:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

In my opinion this is a race between Benjamin Button and Frost/Nixon. There may be an outside shot for Slumdog Millionaire but I wouldn't bet the mortgage on it. If The Wrestler had have been nominated I think that this would be a completely different conversation. We are left with what we are left with however. Frost/Nixon came out with a lot of fanfare and at the time seemed to be the no-brainer for the win, not only here but it seemed that it was already penciled in for an Oscar win. As time has passed however, Benjamin Button is getting the sort of groundswell support as well as some lasting power at the box office that might help it edge out Frost/Nixon at the finish line. Both films have been very well received and both deserve the award but in this case I think that it will be going to Benjamin Button.

Winner: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Nominees:

Burn After Reading
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Mamma Mia!
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

This seems to be a little more wide open than the Drama category but ultimately there are the contenders here as well as the pretenders. I'm not sure anyone wasn't surprised at the nomination for In Bruges. I don't think that this film really has a leg to stand on in terms of a win, but it was a pleasant surprise nomination. If I were handing out the award I would definitely hand it over to Burn After Reading. While it is no surprise that the Coen Brothers have given us another film of top notch quality, it is slightly surprising that this would have been so good. Often their departures from films of a more serious overtone and include seem to be serious flops (ie - The Lady Killers). Burn After Reading was a fine mixture of comedy as well as the usual storytelling that can the Coens are so very good at. While this film was good, I don't think it will take home the hardware either. It is going to come down to Mamma Mia! and Vicky Cristina Barcelona. I personally can't stand the former, and think that the latter is a standout film from 2008, even if there wasn't a huge amount of buzz around it. Vicky Cristina Barcelona just has something about it that draws you into the film and lets you come away from the film with a feeling that you seen something very special. The performances, especially of the ladies involved were very good. I think that this is the film that takes it.

Winner:Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Best Animated Feature Film
Nominees:

Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E

Poor Bolt this film really doesn't stand a ghost of a chance, does it? It has to be bittersweet for the film makers, knowing that their competition are two of the best received animated films to have come along in recent history. Well, thanks for coming out. I think that this might be a category that no matter which one wins between Panda and Wall-E there are going to be some upset fans of the other that feel it got robbed. I can remember the comments sections on the reviews for each film on this site and there was a very vocal segment that could in no way see Kung Fu Panda being anything other than head and shoulders better than Wall-E. Of course there was the other segment that can see nothing wrong in anything Pixar produces. Pixar may very well be the best film studio running right now, but in my opinion not all of their films are flawless. That having been said, Wall-E is as close to being a flawless film that I have seen in sometime. t may not have been the most accessible film for smaller children in the way Kung Fu Panda was, but it was a film that had heart and was smart in building to where it wanted to go. I'm not a Pixar mark at all, I just recognize Wall E for what it is, The Best Animated Film of the year.

Winner: Wall-E

Best Director - Motion Picture
Nominees:

Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry - The Reader
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Sam Mendes - Revolutionary Road
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon

Again we have a situation where an early favorite, Frost/Nixon, is having to fend off a run by a film everyone knew was good, the not has a lot of money being poured into a late push for box office and awards recognition in Benjamin Button. While Mendes is personally one of my favorite directors and I'm a fan of his work I feel that he and Danny Boyle are going to take a back seat as Howard and Fincher duke it out. In my opinion I think that both men have directed better films, but I think that while Frost/Nixon is compelling, Benjamin Button is more of an epic, sweeping tale that Fincher was able craft into a very fine film.

Winner: David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picutre - Drama
Nominees:

Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas - I've Loved So Long
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road

I am one of those people of the opinion that Clint Eastwood, as a director, is able to pull great performances from most of the talent he works with. Jolie's performance in Changeling has done nothing to change my mind about this. I think she will get her nomination for the Oscar for this performance, but this award is either going to land in the lap of Streep or Winslet. Meryl Streep is not a stranger to getting these nominations and either is Winslet. I think however, that this will finally be the year that Winslet can translate a fine performance into winning a long deserved award.

Winner: Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road

Best Performance by an Actor in a Feature Film - Drama
Nominees:

Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke -The Wrestler

This really is anybody's award looking over the nominees. The only one I think can be taken out of serious contention would be DiCaprio. he has managed better performance sin better films and when stacked against the competition he is stacked against here, he isn't going to win. This then leads to a four way fight that is really hard to call. As with the Best Film award, both nominations from Frost/Nixon and Benjamin Button seem to be the early favorites. Unlike the Best Picture category however, The Wrestler is represented. As a fan of the film it is hard to not see it winning and Rourke's performance is truly deserving of the acclaim it is getting. It does seem however that there are times that great character performances are trumped by great impersonations. I feel that this is the case where both Pitt and Rourke lose to a very well done Nixon on the part of Frank Langella.

Winner: Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon

These are the major awards that I'm most interested in that I wanted to offer my two bits on. I won't go into a long breakdown as far as the Musical/Comedy Actor and Actress as well as the supporting actor/actress nominations are concerned but I think that the following will win:

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Winner: Frances McDormand - Burn After Reading - This seems to be the best shot the Burn After Reading has for picking up an award, and i can't think of anyone more deserving. McDormand working with the Coens usually equal high quality stuff.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Winner: James Franco - Pineapple Express - Im going out ona limb here and will say James Franco will pull of the surprise and take this award. He was very good in Pineapple Express and I honestly think that the film without him or with another actor in the same part would not have been the hit that it was. This may not happen, but it would be fun to see.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture -
Winner: Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona - Cruz is overlooked in terms of the quality of the type of performance that she is capable of providing. This may very well be her best work since All About My Mother (Todo sobre mi madre).

Best Performance by and Actor in a Supporting Roles in a Motion Picture
Winner: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight - This is an award that seems to have no other name attached to it than Ledger's. Ledger gave us possibly one of film's greatest villains in his performance as the Joker and seemed to have immersed himself in the role so much so that he became unrecognizable. Some may say that it is a win born solely out of Ledger's death and people championing the cause after his death, but I think that even if Ledger was still alive here with us this nomination would still have come in.

Best Sceenplay - Motion Picture
Winner: Frost/Nixon - While Benjamin Button is going to take a lot of awards, this is the screenplay that will win. While Benjamin Button is stirring film and is very captivating, Frost/Nixon is powerful and gripping. There's more "oomph" to the screenplay here.

Best Original Score - Motion Picture
Winner: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - In a field where the score for The Dark Knight is not included, I would have to say this would be your next best bet.

Best Original Song - Motion Picture
Winner: The Wrestler : Bruce Springsteen / The Wrestler - Seem as if 'The Boss" has a knack for getting himself nominated for the songs he does for films. I'm not crazy about any of the nominees here, but I'd much rather see this win then the Miley Cyrus piece.

Well there all my selections for the film categories. It is very interesting to see that aside from the Ledger nod in the supporting department, it was quiet in terms of other nominations. This seems to be a focal point for those who do not see the Golden Globes as a precursor to the Oscars as there seem to be a new groundswell coming out in which The Dark Knight is starting to pick up nominations more and more which seem to indicate that come Oscar season there may be a superhero nestled in with the Benjamin Buttons and Frost/Nixons in some of the major categories. At the very least I expect Nolan pick up a Best Director Nod, along with a nomination for Best Original Score. I'm not saying the The Dark Knight will sweep every category it finds itself nominated for, but I think that the film was good enough to be included in the conversation at the very leat. Something that didn't happen with the Golden Globes.

I would have taken a look at the television nominations as well, but I don't have access to many of the shows nominated that air on specialty cable networks, unless i pick up a DVD set. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to try and predict a winner when i haven't seen half of the field. I will say, however, that since I did buy the Dexter seasons recently and in my opinion it would be hard to find a program much better than Dexter on television. I hope that it manages to win something, either for Best Drama or for Michael C. Hall. That is personal preference all out there.

We'll have to wait until the ceremony is all over and done with this evening, but as I said, I wouldn't be too quick to inscribe an Oscar for any of the winners coming out of the Golden Globes. It may offer a glimpse of what is to come, but it as we all know the Oscar nominations don't necessarily make a whole lot of sense.