Mad Ramblings of a Movie Geek 01.14.09 Oscar Contenders

Posted by Jordan Bruns on 01.14.2009

A break down of prospective nominees for the 81st Annual Academy Awards... aka my predictions for the nominees in seven categories...




Welcome to this week's Mad Ramblings of a Movie Geek! The Golden Globes are behind us, full of surprises though they were. On the moviefront, Slumdog Millionaire went 4 for 4, including a win for Best Motion Picture Drama. The movie that came out of nowhere is now, due its win at the Globes, an early Oscar frontrunner. However, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has yet to announce its nominees for the 81st annual ceremony. So, leave it to me, your not so humble movie geek, to to try and guess what some of the nominees will be. So, this week I am predicting the nominees for the seven major categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress.

Best Picture:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

My Mad Ramblings
Millionaire's Globe win all but guarantees it a spot in the top five. Button, Frost/Nixon and Titanic 2 seem to be good candidates as well. That leaves one spot remaining. Doubt seems to be acknowledged chiefly for its strong performances, so I pick Milk to fill the fifth spot.

Best Director:
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight

My Mad Ramblings
Boyle, Fincher, Howard and Mendes were all nominated at the Globes. One could call that safe betting. Christopher Nolan is the dark horse candidate to receive a nomination. The Dark Knight was recently received a Best Picture nomination from the Producer's Guild of America and Nolan a nomination from the Director's Guild.

Best Actor:
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

My Mad Ramblings
With the exception of Richard Jenkins, these prospective nominees are pretty much sure things. However, Jenkins is a good bet due to his SAG nod.

Best Actress:
Anne Hathway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy Go Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

My Mad Ramblings
Sally Hawkins and Kate Winslet both won Golden Globes, so they're pretty much shoe-ins. So is Oscar's most nominated thespian, Meryl Streep. I'm picking Hathaway and Jolie to round out the nominees due to their Globe and SAG nominations.

Best Original Screenplay:
Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Burn After Reading
Mike Leigh, Happy Go Lucky
Robert Siegel, The Wrestler

My Mad Ramblings
This is a much more open playing field than the other categories. There's not much to say, except that I consider the Coens and Robert Siegel to be dark horse candidates due to their being nominated by the Writers' Guild.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
Jonathan Nolan and Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Eric Roth, The Curious case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt

My Mad Ramblings
Beaufoy is a lock thanks to Millionaire's rising momentum, and the brothers Nolan were honored with a nomination by the Writers' Guild, proving that superhero films can be artistic after all. The other three are safe bets, but are merely filler in a very slim race.

Best Supporting Actor:
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

My Mad Ramblings
Patel is a result of 's increasing momentum; Brolin might find himself in the running thanks to his SAG nod. But it really doesn't matter. If Heath Ledger is nominated (which is almost guaranteed), Heath Ledger will win. End of story.

Best Supporting Actress:
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

My Mad Ramblings
Almost all of these actresses are guaranteed a nomination. Henson seems to be the oddball here, but is gaining momentum thanks to a nod from SAG.

So, these are my picks on what films will find themselves among the nominated on January 22. I don't expect to be 100 % right in any category. In a week we'll see how accurate I was. That's it for this week's Mad Ramblings.

Until next time…