Mad Ramblings of a Movie Geek 01.21.09: SAG Awards Preview
Posted by Jordan Bruns on 01.21.2009
Some of my predictions for Sunday's upcoming ceremony...
Welcome to another edition of Mad Ramblings of a Movie Geek! The awards season is in full swing, so this humble movie geek is like a football fan getting hyped for the super bowl, regardless of whether his favorite team makes it. Needless to say, it's all I can talk about, movie related right now. Since the Academy Award nominations won't be announced until Thursday (which will be tomorrow by the time this goes online) I didn't feel right writing another Oscar-themed column just yet. But, in the coming weeks, it's going to be Oscar, Oscar, Oscar here at Mad Ramblings. I will be ranking the top Oscar upsets, Oscar's biggest travesties, and a look at some of our greatest actors and actresses who haven't won the big one. But that is later, and this is now.
The next stop on the road to Oscar is the 15th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards, to be presented this Sunday night. While not as glitzy as the Oscars or as unpredictable as the Globes, the SAG awards, which have only been around since 1995, can still be good indicators of what to expect on Oscar night. Based on the Golden Globe winners and the current momentum, I will offer my predictions for the winners in key categories. However, like the Globes, I'm not mentioning the TV nominees- I just don't have my ear to the ground with TV the way I do with movies. I'll start with the top movie award of the night.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast- Motion Picture: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Doubt Frost/Nixon Milk Slumdog Millionaire
My Mad Ramblings
This is the SAG equivalent to the Best Picture award, although the outcome is based on the film with the best ensemble cast, not necessarily the best film overall. Therefore, I can narrow the playing field a bit: consider Doubt and Slumdog Millionaire to be the top contenders for this award. Doubt has received accolades for several performances, but it was Millionaire that came out of nowhere and swept the Golden Globes. That makes it a good.
Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role- Motion Picture:
Ricahrd Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
My Mad Ramblings
It's the battle of the bad boys, as Penn and Rourke seem to be the most likely candidates to emerge victorious. However, SAG isn't as sentimental towards comebacks as the Academy is, so Penn could actually win this thing. However... see below...
Prediction: Mickey Rourke
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role- Motion Picture:
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
My Mad Ramblings
Oh, look, Meryl Streep is nominated for another award. I'm sooo surprised (note the sarcasm). She doesn't have any real strong competition other than Winslet, so it's conceivable she could win just because she's Meryl Streep. Sorry, Katherine Hepburn, you've been replaced. I don't think this one's as cut and dry as people seem to think.
Prediction: Kate Winslet
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role- Motion Picture:
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
My Mad Ramblings
Normally I would say I love the competition here. But there is no competition here.
Prediction: Heath Ledger
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role- Motion Picture:
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Kate Winslet, The Reader
My Mad Ramblings
It's tough to pick a prospective winner here, as the award could really go to any one of them. Winslet won at the Globes, but she also one for Best Actress-Drama, and I don't see the double win repeating itself here. Cruz is a likely winner given the rave reviews her performance has received. So who do I pick? Well, last year the awrd went to Ruby Dee for American Gangster, the only award she received for the role. That means this award could go to anybody. But if I have to pick a winner...
Prediction: Viola Davis (based on gut instinct)
These are the films and performances that I expect to triumph at this year's SAG awards. Since the Academy has already mailed its ballots and the nominees will have been announced by the time these awards are presented, none of this will be an indicator as to who/what gets nominated. But it could make a difference as to who/what actually wins. Award shows are all about momentum, and although right now Slumdog Millionaire is considered an early front runner, the tables could turn in a heartbeat. Especially if the Academy pulls a Dreamgirls and fails to even nominate it for Best Picture.
That's it for this week's Mad Ramblings. Next week I will be back with my list of Oscar never runs, a listing of some very talented actors and actresses who have never won an Academy Award. I'm contemplating a temporary title change to Mad Ramblings of an Oscar Geek for the next month, unless of course, you readers deem it a ridiculous idea.
