East Coast Musings 02.22.09: And The Winner Isn't !

Posted by James Craig on 02.22.2009

The Oscars are tonight. The biggest night in Hollywood. Everyone is scrambling to make their own Oscar predictions. I'm no different, but I offer you picks with a twist.

In this column, I will explore various facets of the film and television worlds and offer my views on why things are they way they are and where I feel the subject of each topic in heading in the future by weighing both the pros and the cons each is facing. Nothing is safe and no one is safe as from my focus.

Welcome back fair readers. This week, like everyone else, I'll take a look at the contenders for the Oscars this evening. But first, there's actually some buzz surrounding this year's awards not just related solely to the awards themselves, as the producers have promised to make this year's show "fun". Not only that, but htere is a sense of intrigue having been created as the producers of the show have tried very, very hard to keep what they have planned under wraps. I have to say, that personally, I am interested in seeing how this year's show turns out due to what has been said by those putting on the show plus the buzz that is swirling around tonight's festivities as a result. There have been promises that the show will be at a much brisker pace than in years past. That is a promise that wouldn't be hard to keep, as the Oscars are lucky to move at a snail's pace. Also, in an odd move to keep people from only tuning into the red carpet specials, apparently, all of the presenters will not be making an appearance on the red carpet. I'm not sure that this is something that the producers of the show needed to worry about, but I am also aware that there is a growing number of "celebophiles" that only want to see the target of their misguided affection and will tune in to the ceremony if only to get a glance of what is being worn and by who. It is really quite sad that for some, the only reason to tune into the show is to see who is going t land on the best dressed or worst dressed lists of the night. The real wild card in the mix this year is with Hugh Jackman as the host of the show.

Some people absolutely hate this man and think that this has nothing but disaster written all over it. Others love Jackman (many of which are female or like minded men) and think that his Aussie charm will be enough to drive the ceremony from being set firmly in the doldrums to something entertaining. I am on the fence with Jackman's selection. I can see why the producers of the show would want Jackman. On top of being named "Sexiest Man Alive" or something like that, the man is very much in the public eye. He is followed by several different demographics that I'm sure would be interested in watching him as he take son the hosting duties. First you have those who get caught up in the tabloids and keep track of the man as the paparazzi follow him as he is out and about or taking his kid to school. Jackman starred in the very buzzed about Australia with Nicole Kidman, that certainly appeals to those who are keen for the sweeping, epic style loves stories. Then, in an entirely different vein, there are those of us who know him to be Wolverine. Action fans and comic fanboys alike are chomping at the bit to see X-Men Origins: Wolverine and while the Oscars may not be their cup of tea, there certainly is a curiosity that exists to see what their hero is going to do. If anything, it is a savvy move by the producers. I think that Jackman has the ability to carry his own as host. If it ends u that the show is entertaining and moves along at a pace faster than grass growing, I'm all for it. I'll just keep my fingers crossed. Now, onto my predictions for the show.

Of course, everyone and their dog is predicting their choices for winner in each respective category. Oscar pools are becoming more and more common. Sure, some people have a knack for it and do very well with their picks. Having a 1 in 5 shot at predicting correctly isn't the worst of odds, but for me, that's not enough. I want my predictions to be by in large be correct. Sure there's always some Crash sized fluke just waiting to throw a wrench into the works for many a poolie. There are, however, some nominees that don't even have a shot at a flukey, win because of the vote being split, shot at an Oscar. I want to present to you a set of Oscar picks with a twist. I offer, for your consideration, my Oscar picks for the nominees that have little to no shot at winning tonight. and the nominees are:

Best Picture:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire


The odds on favorite here is Slumdog Millionaire. This is the little film that could. It has been gaining momentum even before the Golden Globes shot this film's profile into the the upper atmosphere. Maybe, just maybe, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button will pull off the upset, but it seems as if the Slumdog freight train isn't going to be stopped. On the complete opposite end of the spectrum in this category is The Reader. As I said in my column/rant of nomination snubbing, there are a number of better pictures that could have been nominated over this depressing, meandering 3 star (at best) film. The Reader is arguably the worst film to have ever been nominated for best picture. It is driven, by in large by the strength of Kate Winslet's performance and not much else. There is a better chance that Transformers: The Movie will win in a write-in upset then this film getting the Best Picture award. If you, for what ever reason think that you're going to win a surprising upset in your pool with this one, think again.

The winner isn't ... The Reader

Best Actor:

Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler


In what may be the one of the the tightest races of the evening, the odds makers are leaning towards a Micky Rourke win for his role in The Wrestler. Sean Penn may have more currency with the Academy voters however, and both men have almost evenly split the honor at the awards shows leading up to the Oscars tonight. On the outside looking in are Frank Langella, Brad Pitt and Richard Jenkins. Again, keeping in mind that there could be a split vote, I think that it is very realistic that Jenkins, the man taking up the rear in this pack of nominees could sneak in. While there are many in the general movie going public that have no idea what The Visitor is about, Jenkins has managed to get reviews of his performance ranging from very good to raving. It is Brad Pitt that is going to get lost in the shuffle here, as the strength of his competition is more than enough to keep him from winning, even in a split vote situation.

The winner isn't ... Brad Pitt

Best Actress:

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader


This category is anyone's guess as there are three very strong nominees in the field. Depending on what site, or who you're reading, any one of the three of Anne Hathaway, Kate Winslet or Meryl Streep is your odds on favorite. That being said, how much does it suck being either Angelina Jolie or Melissa Leo knowing what you're up against. While Jolie's nomination was neve rin doubt as she had all the necessary ingredients going for her when she took on The Changling (ie: being in a Clint Eastwood directed film + a script heavy in drama), her performance left a lot to be desired. Leo, in almost any other year, would have at the very least a puncher's chance at the award with her very strong performance in Frozen River, this just isn't the year for her. You might as well throw a dart at a dart board with the three favorites on it to decide who is going to win, but as for the other two ladies, not so much.

The winner isn't ... Angelina Jolie

Best Supporting Actor:

Josh Brolin, Milk
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road



This may possibly the easiest category of the night to call. If this isn't a sure thing I don't know what is. This really is Heath Ledger's award to lose. Ledger's Joker is quickly, if it hasn't already, reached iconic status is the pantheon of classic villainous on screen performances. While Philip Seymour Hoffman is always a threat come awards time, I just don't see it.

The winner isn't ... The 4 nominees who aren't Heath Ledger...specifically, Robert Downey Jr.

Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, Doubt
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler


On the outside, especially just after when the nominations were announced, the nominees for this award seem to be more or less even. As time has passed and people have had time to digest the various performances, Penelope Cruz has emerged as the front runner for the award followed closely by the ladies from Doubt. Marissa Tomei also has quite a bit of support behind her as well as fans of as well as buzz surrounding The Wrestler may lead to voting for her as well as Rourke to make up for Best Picture and Director snubs. Falling into the "it's an honor just to be nominated" category is Taraji P. Henson. Much like with the Best Actor/Actress categories there has to be one nominee who will get lost in the shuffle, and here it is going to be Henson.

The winner isn't ... Taraji P. Henson

Best Director:

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Gus Van Sant, Milk


This is another case where there are 4 nominees who have at the very least an outside chance at winning here. While Danny Boyle is riding on the Slumdog Millionaire momentum train, it would be crazy to see a David Fincher, Ron Howard or Gus Van Sant win. Each of these men has a case that can be made in their favor for the award. Then we come to Stephen Daldry. Again, The Reader was an agonizing film, and I am mystified by any nominations outside of Winslet's even happening. There are 3 overwhelming longshots as far as this awards show goes in the major categories.

The winner isn't ... Stephen Daldry

Best Animated Film:



Much like the Best Supporting Actor category, this is really just a one horse race. Kung Fu Panda has an outside chance, a very outside chance, but Bolt may as well not even be considered as an option. When it comes down to it, both films are just overwhelmed by the Pixar (soon to be) classic's sheer excellence.

The Winner isn't ... Bolt


There you have it. My picks for the nominees you most assuredly won't see winning anything tonight. This is meant to be a fun exercise taking a different look at the whole Oscar predictions phenomena that everyone wants to take a stab at every year. I'm not trying to be cruel here in any way, as nearly all the nominees deserve the honor of being nominated. The sad truth is, there can be just one winner in each category and by extension there is always going to be one nominee that has nearly zero chance at winning. I don't want to belittle the performances of the material, but it's just the way things are.

Thanks for reading all, next week I'll look at the winners from the Oscars and take a look at how my predictions worked out. I'm calling it now, over 90% accuracy.