In the ever-changing world of mainstream entertainment, the fall/winter quarter is quite possibly the most important for music industry bigwigs everywhere. It means a lot to them, in so many ways; they trot out their biggest acts and hope that a combination of great sales will either mean a nice new car under their Christmas trees, or an economic downsizing for the new year. Simply put, the fall and winter is when the record industry wants, begs, and needs your dollars the most.
And if the music business has ever need your money the most, it is now; Sales are down 13% from last year, the industry still hasn't figured out how to squelch the free trade of music on the net, and the kids would rather grab the mp3 than buy the CD. The biz has already got on the right track by lowering new releases to prices between $6.99 and $9.99, but the upcoming fall season is truly make or break.
And thankfully for the biz, this fall's tidal wave of new music is one of the bigger ones, with more high profile supposedly "sure thing" releases coming out than in previous years. So, to help you all out, and be able to spout my opinions and predictions, we're gonna take a little look at the new fall models, and see what's gonna sink or float:
(Writers Note: release dates, and album titles cribbed from "Entertainment Weekly.")
Pop and Rock:
Justin Timberlake: Justified (Nov 5th.)
Justin's big gamble lies here; his first solo debut, and he's gotta hit the home run. No realistic second chances for Timberlake, as his audience is growing older and dissatisfied by the minute. So what do you do? With producers such as the Neptunes, Timbaland, Andre Harris, and P Diddy among others, it seems that Justin is looking for some street cred. Justin was quoted as saying, "the bubblegum sound is old", so it seems as if he's trying to be your next Jackson-esque performer (minus the bad parts). "Senorita" and "Cry Me a River" are money productions, that Timberlake hopes to get the over 13 crowd to come on over and say hello.
The Mainstream Thought: N*Sync was a cash cow, and they're hoping that Justin won't change that. With an all star cast of help, Justin looks to buck the odds of teen idles growing up successful.
The Mainstream Hangover Thought: With the overdose of street cred, no doubt that there will be a hit or two out of this. But if the album just sounds like an N*Sync remix album, the sales are gonna drop like a stone after word circulates around the gen pop.
Peter Gabriel: Up (Sept 24th.)
It's been 10 years since Gabriel released his last record, the other two letter titled "Us". This record was recorded during Gabriel's scoring of the Aussie film "Rabbit-Proof Fence", so look for it to be similar to the avant garde gimmick of "Long Walk Home". Gabriel says that he "doesn't know if it will sell, but I like it a lot."
The Mainstream Thought: It seems as if they're just looking to break even on this; if they get the usual "Gabriel audience" to come on board, then they got their success.
The Mainstream Hangover Thought: It's avant-, so we get either a thought-provoking piece of art, or feedback and noise. Either way, Gabriel's fans are mostly intelligent, cultured folk, so look for the audience to be happy.
American Idol: American Idol's Greatest Moments. (October 1st.)
Part one of the 5 million records, tours, videos, and television appearances that are on the way, we get the ten finalists recorded versions of what they sang on the show. AI winner Kelly Clarkson weighs in with "(You Make Me Feel Like) A Natural Woman." Her debut record is up for release in early 2003.
The Mainstream Thought: Milking the hell out of the show, of course this record will sell.
The Mainstream Hangover Thought: Ehhhhh, at least it won't sell for long.
Christina Aguilera Stripped (Oct 29th.)
Christina, "act 2" to Britney, hopes to flip the switch towards adulthood on the new CD. She's already started, with the "Lady Marmalade" single, and her "groupie chiq" look at the recent VMA's. She also wants to be called "Xtina". RCA GM Richard Sanderssays that "she never had that goody two shoes image, so the leap is not as great for as some of the others." Rumor also has it that she co wrote a coupe of songs.
The Mainstream Thought: Rumors of a duet with Redman are apparent, but all bets are off as to weather the image change will take.
The Mainstream Hangover Thought: "Xtina" just goes too far. NOT EVERYBODY needs to have a hip new name. Either way, this "street" Aguilera gimmick looks too desperate, but I'm sure that she'll squeeze out at least one hit. As for the rest of it, well, no one has heard anything but a clip of the new record, so it's anyone's guess as to how it's gonna sound.
Beck: Sea Change. (Sept 24th.)
Rumors are having "Sea Changes" be the anti-"Midnight Vultures", in that the new record is more introspective lyrics set to acoustic mood music. Beck says that "With the last album, I wanted to make something that was just fun and silly and entertaining. With "Sea Change", I wanted something that had emotional continuity."
The Mainstream Thought: Beck's been able to walk on that line of being "underground" as well as "overground" in overall album sales. This one should do no less.
The Mainstream Hangover Thought: Beck has been one of the more forward thinking artists in the last decade. With every album, he creates a work that is varyingly different than the last. That being said, it has been a while since he's been in the public eye, so the amount of his audience that decides to come back ("audience" meaning single loving mainstream public.) will dictate as to weather this will be a critical, or commercial success.
Santana: Shaman. (Oct. 22nd.)
The follow up to 1999's "Supernatural" will be following the same collaborative, duet-heavy format. The question is, is that WHO exactly will Santana play with this time? Santana has said that it "goes from Pavarotti to P.O.D.", and with the P.O.D. song already out, can it be true that Santana has an opera planned? There also will supposedly be Michelle Branch and Macy Grey singing along to Santana's guitar.
The Mainstream Thought: The label and the artist are keeping the same successful format in place, so everything's looking good for this record being a hit.
The Mainstream Hangover Thought: The real question is that how long this new record will last, and how much profit will come back to a label who had to have sunk lots of money into it. It won't sell as many records as the last one, cause the newness is over. But, Santana can realistically beat this gimmick into the ground by just having him pair up with different people every album.
Sum 41: Still Untitled. (Nov. 26th.)
The bratty punk band's second record is supposedly going to be more in that "metal" vain in that it will be heavier than "All Killer, No Filler." Drummer Steve O says that this album "smokes the other one's ass."
The Mainstream Thought: They haven't been gone for long, so the remembrance is still there. The label hopes that the kids are still alright.
The Mainstream Hangover Thought: This one will sell to the same demographic as the last one did. Much like the mainstream thought, Sum 41 really had to get back in the spotlight quick, and because they have, they are looking to get around the same level of success this time around.
Jennifer Lopez: Still Untitled. (December, tentative.)
J-lo is supposedly trying to give a more funkier, mellow fell to the new record. Producer Andre Harris says that "singing wise, song structure wise, and theme wise she's trying to give her audience a little more this time out." Nothing new on the single front, as the album is still apparently a work in progress.
The Mainstream Thought: the biz is looking for the "can't miss" here, as Lopez is a star in every sense of the word, and they hope to keep the "J-Lo ball" rolling.
The Mainstream Hangover Thought: The second album sold well, but the remix album sold well and gave Lopez street cred. So, now that she has found her equation, look for J-Lo to beat this gimmick into the ground.
Jay-Z: The Blueprint 2: The gift and the curse. (Nov. 5th.)
Jay's new record is expected to be heavier than the last one, with rock guitars and few soft melodies. Longtime engineer Guru says that Jay "recorded 25 songs, and is still working everyday." This record is also supposed to be a deeper one as well, with less "champagne and women" songs.
The Mainstream Thought: Jay is still rolling along selling millions, and this one shouldn't be different. There may be the risk of his changing of lyrical subjects, but on the whole his audience will still remain loyal.
The Mainstream Hangover Thought: Jay, like every other artist keeps expanding and getting better with each album. The added presence of guitars and a harder edge will be a change in format, but it's still looking to be a masterpiece.
Snoop Dogg: Paid tha Cost to be tha Boss. (Nov. 26th.)
After a two-year break from the rap world, Snoop returns to the game with a new CD. Snoop has the Neptunes producing a couple of tracks.
The Mainstream Thought: Snoop's commercial sales have been sagging over the last few years, so the biz is really hoping that the producers of the moment, the Neptunes will be able to rub off some platinum success on to Snoop.
The Mainstream Hangover Thought: Snoop needs a hit big; so the new CD has gotta sell. It looks positive though, as Snoop has never been far away from the public eye, so he can always get right back into the hit parade. Plus, and make sure to spark one up in tribute, this is the last record Snoop made before giving up the smoke.
Mariah Carey: Untitled. (Dec. 10th.)
Carey's first album under the Def Jam banner will follow the same format as 1999's "Rainbow." Longtime producers Jimmy Jam and Terry Lewis produced a couple of tracks.
The Mainstream Thought: On the music business's side, it's a close look record; everyone is waiting to see exactly how, or if Carey will rebound from "Glitter," breakdowns, and the dropping from her former label. For the Def Jam side, the hope is that the investment they made on her will pay off.
The Mainstream Hangover Thought: Is she still crazy? Will it matter? What will she do if the album busts? All the questions are floating up in the air for this one. Mariah should have though, in my opinion gone with different producers, if for nothing else than to freshen the stale sound up.
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