Donald Trump has made his endorsement for the Republican nomination for president. Trump announced in Las Vegas that he was giving his endorsement to Republican front-runner Mitt Romney.
"It's my honor--real honor--and privilege to endorse Mitt Romney," Trump said. "Mitt is tough. He's smart, he's sharp. He's not going to allow bad things to continue to happen to this country that we all love. So Governor Romney, go out and get ‘em. You can do it."
Romney, who was present for the endorsement, followed that with, "There are some things that you just can't imagine happening in your life. This is one of them. Being in Donald Trump's magnificent hotel and having his endorsement is a delight."
Trump later called into TMZ Live and said he would accept a position in Romney's cabinet if offered and would do a better job than those in place.
"I love what I do ... I love the real estate business, I love building things ... but I love the country even more ... if i can do anything to help, whether it's [under] Mitt Romney or anybody else ... I would love to do it ... if it's good for the country." he said. He added, "I will say this ... I'd rather have me negotiating against China, against OPEC and against lots of other people that are laughing at how stupid we are ... I would rather have me negotiating for us than the clowns that are negotiating right now."
If this poll is accurate, and we'll need to see others to confirm, perception seems to be setting in among GOP voters that Romney will be the nominee. The fact that Donald Trump, a supposed Tea Party figure, endorsed Romney over Gingrich, pretty much says it all. Gingrich will have to win a state before Super Tuesday, otherwise it's hard to see how he will justify staying in.
Even though none of the candidates running for president (who have a chance of winning) want to talk about it, the U.S. federal government's $15 trillion debt is eventually going to necessitate those draconian cuts we keep hearing we can't bear. At some point we're going to have to bear them whether we like it or not, but in the meantime it's fun to imagine a world in which these useless government agencies don't exist and we don't have to deal with their officious, nannying proclamations anymore.
Take the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Given what we know about government naming conventions, we can be certain that whatever the CDC does, it has nothing to do with disease control or prevention. In fact, the most notable initiatives the CDC has undertaken recently have been to grossly misinform the American public about the amount of binge drinking and sexual violence that goes on here.
Mitt Romney basically whooped Newt Gingrich in Florida tonight, a fresh reminder of how much money and negative ads matter. Romney outspent Gingrich 5-to-1 in the state, dropping about $17 million in the state, mostly on negative ads. He also was much more aggressive and campaigned/debated with some fire behind him. It all worked.
Gingrich is vowing to stay in the race at this point, although you have to wonder where he turns this around. Yes, this has been an unusually fluid Republican primary electorate and yes, Gingrich has been pronounced dead before only to come back, but Gingrich has fundamental issues outside of Southern states. He is getting slaughtered among women, evidence that his ex-wife's charges HAVE hurt him, he has a huge money disadvantage, he isn't on the ballot in several states, he has far less debates to cling to going forward, and his ground game is getting dwarfed by Romney everywhere. To stay relevant and not feed the growing media perception that this race is all but over, Gingrich will have to win somewhere before Super Tuesday. And even then, the question here is more can Gingrich stay in it until the convention and still get treated like a legitimate candidate. Winning the nomination seems unlikely for Gingrich at this point.
The reality is, Gingrich has two opponents -- Romney and the Republican party. He is also being bullied by Romney to the point where he seems to spend most of his time complaining about being attacked. He is going to have to develop a long-term strategy. He seems to just go from whim to whim while Romney follows through on an actual strategy.
Romney's campaign continues to be stronger than the candidate, a lesson the Obama campaign I'm sure has taken note of. Romney's campaign is extremely organized, focused, and relentless, making up for a lot of the flaws in Romney himself. When they decide to attack, they do so in a way that has, thus far, worked every time in the Republican primary. The question now is, does he go back to focusing on Obama or does he keep attacking Gingrich as to avoid letting him rise from the dead again. It's a tough decision because continued attacking of Gingrich will keep the party from unifying and keep Gingrich in the news, but will prevent further surprises in the primary contest. Focusing on Obama and trying to act above it could set up what we saw in South Carolina where people thought Romney was playing it safe.
Romney's loose use of facts in negative ads is something the Obama campaign will need to be ready for. As Gingrich is learning the hard way, Romney seems pretty comfortable with borderline and even outright lies about his opponent in his ads. Of course, he won't be able to outspend Obama in the media war, so getting away with those types of ads will be more difficult. Against Gingrich, they've been very effective because, again, Romney is outspending Gingrich dramatically. Over attacking and use of negative ads can backfire though, something Romney will need to keep in mind going into the general against a much tougher opponent in Obama.
Overall, Romney was at his best in Florida. He was aggressive and came off like a candidate with something to prove, a major contrast to how he came off before. The result -- a commanding win in Florida, the biggest state yet of the primary. The nomination is once again Romney's to lose.
* Ron Paul was last. He'll do better in the smaller caucus states.
What started as a close race looks to have turned into a blow out. The latest Florida polls today show Mitt Romney expanding his lead over Newt Gingrich (except an InsiderAdvantage poll which seems to be an outlier since all other polls show different results), once again showing how important debates are to this year's Republican primary field. I'd expect this trend to continue in the general election -- debates will be huge.
Gingrich had all the momentum up until Romney crushed him in both debates last week, leading to a complete 180 in the polls. The upcoming schedule is not favorable to Gingrich, so it's hard to see where he will turn this around, especially now that Romney has sort of figured out how to debate Gingrich (bully him).
I'd expect a solid double digit win for Romney tomorrow night that will really deliver a blow to Gingrich and further feed the perception that Romney is the presumptive nominee. Gingrich has major issues in that he is almost entirely dependent on debate performances, is being outspent, and is going up against Romney and the Republican establishment.
Newt Gingrich is being sued for using the Survivor song "Eye of the Tiger" on his campaign trail without having the rights to use it. TMZ reports that Rude Music Inc., a company owned by a member of the band, filed suit today in Illinois alleging that Gingrich has been using the 1982 song at his political events since 2009. The lawsuit claims he used it at the Conservative Political Action Conference in 2009 through 2011, plus the Southern Republican Leadership Conference in 2010.
Rude Music says that Gingrich also used the song at a campaign event in Doylestown, Pennsylvania, noting, "Mr. Gingrich entered the packed Moose Lodge for a speech as the song 'pulsed,' according to the the Newt 2012, Inc. website." The company is also suing the American Conservative Union, who it says has used clips of Gingrich and the song. They're asking for an injunction against Gingrich using the song as well as unspecified damages.
The song was made famous in Rocky III and was a huge hit in 1982. Check out a clip of Newt using the song below:
Lots of new polling data shows Newt Gingrich sinking following back-to-back debates where he and Romney swapped places, with Romney becoming the aggressor and fighter that Gingrich used to be, and Gingrich becoming the timid, passive candidate that Romney used to be.
It's probably too late for Gingrich to turn this around in Florida. His silver lining is he continues to poll well nationally when matched up against Romney. The problem for him though is that he basically has no national campaign, while Romney does. He also seems to have been exposed a bit in terms of his debating skills -- if he doesn't get an opportunity to blast the moderators, he seems to struggle to make traction. He also doesn't seem to be handling Romney's new, more aggressive approach very well, as he got baited into making some very undisciplined attacks on Thursday that Romney was ready for.
And meanwhile, the economy somewhat improving, the State of the Union address, and the constant exposure of the Republican candidates all seem to be helping President Obama's numbers in head-to-head match-ups against Romney and Gingrich.
These numbers are a reminder of how dangerous a political candidate Obama remains despite the economic woes of the country. All data indicates that independents have not been impressed with the GOP's field of candidates, and that is going to be a major factor.
* Mitt Romney seems to have figured Newt Gingrich out. Gingrich's "gimmick" in these debates is to make over-the-top, counter-aggressive statements that draw big applause lines and dominate highlights. For the past two debates, Romney has been the one doing this first, putting Newt in a defensive position right away. Romney did not hesitate at all when he got a chance to go after Gingrich, even ignoring an attempt by Gingrich to call a "truce." Unlike in previous debates, it was Romney who came off as the alpha male tonight. He came off as the more fiery, aggressive candidate.
* Romney had answers for most of Gingrich's attacks, such as the attack about Romney owning stock in Freddie and Fannie. For all his weaknesses as a candidate, one thing Romney is very strong on is being prepared. He is almost always prepared for attacks, aside from the tax return fiasco last week.
* Gingrich just seems to be wilting under the pressure of having to always deliver such blockbuster debate moments. Erick Erekson on CNN said it best: "live by the debate, die by the debate." Romney has changed strategy and was successful in baiting Gingrich into moments that he hasn't looked good in. We're seeing why a campaign has to be built on more than just buzz worthy debate highlights, because after awhile, attacking the moderator stops working.
* Gingrich may not be as good a debater as we all thought. He has been exposed dramatically in the last two debates and is starting to look like a guy who, if he can't get a cheap shot in on the media, seems pretty lackluster in terms of connecting with the audience or delivering a moment that resonates.
* Rick Santorum had another strong debate, particularly on the exchange over healthcare, but at this point it just seems as if most GOP primary voters have tuned him out. Same for Ron Paul, who was his usual self and had some good moments.
* Pretty amazing that Gingrich did not pounce on Romney for getting caught in a straight up lie about one of his TV ads. Gingrich, for whatever reason, has been letting many opportunities to attack aggressively pass him by.
* I'd expect this debate to more or less wrap up Florida for Romney. Gingrich's poll numbers rely directly on debate performances, and he has now failed to create a buzz worthy moment in the last two. Romney, on the contrast, was the candidate who came off as the more aggressive, fighter. Gingrich entered the debate falling in the polls and he'll probably continue to do so leading up to Tuesday.
Three new polls out today show that Newt Gingrich's momentum is now gone and he is actually falling in the polls as Mitt Romney has regained the lead in Florida.
Just as fast as he rose, Gingrich is sinking again. I said in my debate analysis on Monday night that Gingrich played it way too safe at the last debate and that it would cost him, and it has. He is a candidate that relies almost exclusively on zippy, anger-filled, buzz-worthy debate moments to keep him afloat. Without them, his support erodes quickly. He tried to act like the frontrunner on Monday, and as I've been saying, he is not in position to do that. He always has to act like the angry rebel. One "normal" debate from him and his support sinks, as these polls again indicate.
With that said, he'll need another noteworthy debate performance tonight to reverse the shift to Romney in time for Tuesday's vote, otherwise he won't win.
And in some other key polling data, here are the numbers the Obama campaign is counting on: Romney and Gingrich both have negative favorability ratings (31% view Romney positively, 36% negative while 26% view Gingrich positively and 48% view him negatively), while Obama's remains positive (50% view him positively, 39% view him negatively). That likability advantage will be big in the general election.
One recurrent theme of government regulations intended to protect public health is they have no noticeable impact on public health. But they make a lot of busybodies feel good about themselves for forcing restaurants to put calories on their menus, or banning smoking in private businesses, or banning soda in public schools, even though such measures don't accomplish anything.
The latest example comes from Los Angeles, where the city council recently passed an ordinance requiring adult film performers to wear condoms. Although the local AIDS activists who pushed for the law seem to think it will protect porn actors, it will probably only result in driving the porn business out of L.A.
CNN and Quinnipac both have Romney and Gingrich in a virtual tie in Florida, 36% to 34%. Should be interesting to see how the final few days in Florida play out. Tomorrow night's debate will be a crucial one, particularly for Gingrich who relies on debates for momentum.
Ron Paul is last in both polls, behind Rick Santorum.
What an interesting contrast the State of the Union provided. On one hand, President Obama returned to the national spotlight – long focused on the roller-coaster GOP nomination circus – with a smart, centrist, and populist message. On the other hand, the Republican nomination process drives its candidates further and further to the right -- and makes them all less viable in the general election. Indeed, if the election were held today, Obama would defeat either Gingrich or Romney because crucial independent voters instinctively know Romney is a phony (indeed, almost everyone has figured this out), and the bipolar Gingrich's favorability ratings are seriously underwater (60% of Americans disapprove of him according to recent polls).
I have repeatedly written that presumptive front-runner Romney is a far weaker candidate than is generally acknowledged. Despite overwhelming superior resources –financial and organizational – Romney lost a close Iowa contest to Rick Santorum, who spent almost no money there. While Romney won his (second) home state of New Hampshire handily, he was then trounced in South Carolina by Gingrich, whose two stellar debate performances in that state erased Romney's 25-point lead in the polls within a week. The screams of panic you hear from the east are the sounds of the Republican establishment freaking out in Washington, D.C.
Gingrich is an astonishing debater who can both think on his feet and sense the mood of an audience with uncanny, killer acumen. He also appears completely at ease with himself and is unafraid to take tactical risks. The preternaturally awkward Romney's play-it-safe debate approach has been to aggressively dispense generic patriotic platitudes ("I believe in America") while refusing to directly answer most questions about his record.
Thoughts on tonight's State of the Union address from President Obama. Note that as usual, I'll be examining the speech from a political/tactical standpoint than a policy standpoint.
* Campaign Obama is back. The closing to tonight's State of the Union, a portion that will likely be part of his election stump speech in the coming months, was extremely strong and effective. It was the type of soaring rhetoric that won Obama the election in 2008. It remains to be seen if that type of rhetoric that Obama is famous for will work as well this time as it did last, but he still has those speech-giving chops and being able to deliver a strong, emotional, passionate speech is always an asset for a politician, particularly if he gets to run against Mitt Romney, a guy who generally lacks emotion and passion. Make no mistake, this speech was aimed at Romney, pretty clear Obama is expecting him to be the nominee. It was designed in almost every way to create contrasts to who Romney is and how he comes off.
* Romney picked a pretty bad day to release his tax rate. Most of the country agrees that the extremely wealthy should pay a higher tax rate, and with Obama stating tonight that millionaires and billionaires should pay a 30% tax rate, Romney's 13.9% tax rate is going to continue to be a huge target from now until November (assuming he is the Republican nominee). That 13.9% tax rate, fair or unfair, will be a huge albatross around Romney's neck.
* The speech was particularly effective, I thought, because Obama hasn't been on primetime TV like this in about five months. In those five months, we've seen the Republican vision in the debates and we've seen the caricature of Obama as a radical extremist who hates religion, hates business, hates money, hates the opposition, hates the military, etc. With that as the backdrop, the contrast of how Obama actually comes off in speeches was even stronger. As always, regardless of what you think of his policies, he doesn't come off as the caricature that Republicans have tried to paint him as.
* This speech won't change anything in Washington, D.C. The partisanship will continue. This speech was about a contrasting vision from what we have heard from the Republican candidates for months, and it was a strongly delivered contrast.
The speech was on the long side, but overall, a pretty effective speech that set the major themes for the 2012 election. More so, it served as a reminder of the level that Obama campaigns at. It's a level that is higher than the one that most of the GOP candidates have, so far, been at. The eventual GOP nominee, whether it's Romney or Gingrich, will have to be ready for what will be a very brutal election.
It also raised a big question -- will Obama's ability to deliver passionate, emotional speeches still be effective at a time of such high unemployment? Will the country still be receptive to that type of soaring rhetoric or will they just roll their eyes? The answer to that question will go a long way in determining who wins.
If tonight's speech is a guide, the 2012 election will offer a huge contrast on the issue of wealth inequality in America, particularly if Romney is the nominee. Should be interesting.
Rasmussen and Gallup both now have Newt Gingrich passing Mitt Romney nationally, 35% to 28% and 31% to 27% respectively. And in Florida, Public Policy has Gingrich ahead of Romney, 38% to 33%.
And with the State of the Union tonight likely to be Obama's attempt to begin framing the 2012 election themes, Rasmussen has him beating both Gingrich and Romney, 49% to 40% and 46% to 43% respectively.
Mitt Romney showed some life and, dare I say, even some fire at last night's GOP debate. He threw bomb after bomb at Newt Gingrich, who clearly came into the night with the mindset that he wasn't going to get baited into an argument. He stayed calm, but it cost him. Gingrich has surged again in the polls and leads in Florida again because GOP primary voters respond to his anger and his provocative debate performances. He tried scaling things back and playing safe in Iowa too after he became the frontrunner, and we saw how that turned out. He did that again tonight, going into a prevent defense and losing the fire and bravado that has gotten him to the top of the pack again. Newt, when he is angry, bold, and unapologetic, taps into the mood of the Republican party right now better than any candidate left in the field. But that Newt didn't show up tonight. Instead, Newt tried to play the frontrunner role, mostly passing on chances to take the gloves off against Romney, even letting Romney's classic "self-deportation" remark go by without ridiculing it. Gingrich was smart enough though to stand up for Medicare, a clear grab at Florida's large number of senior citizen voters.
But this was not the hellfire Gingrich we saw last week in South Carolina. I get that Gingrich wanted to try and remain poised, there is something to say for not getting baited into arguments, but he does not have this race won, he just got back into it. Now is not the time to play it safe, particularly when Romney attacked him as relentlessly as he did during the first 30 minutes of the debate. Gingrich probably really got under Romney's skin by not taking the bait, since he was obviously trying to get Newt to lose it and say something stupid, but he should have shown a little more passion and fight. We have seen over and over again how tepid support is and how quickly it shifts this year. One day you're up, and one wrong move later, you're in a free fall. Newt played the frontrunner role tonight, but he's better off when he's trying to own the stage.
And for all the criticisms that Romney has had his Super PACs do all his dirty work, he came out with clear, focused attacks on Gingrich and he did not back down at all when Gingrich questioned his honesty. He also did a bit better with the tax return issue (though now that it's out that he paid a 13.9% tax rate, the issue may get even bigger -- and wow what a gift to Obama if Romney is his opponent, he now has his perfect foil for the tax inequality/the game is rigged for the rich argument that he wants to make the main message of the election). Romney's problem remains though that his message just doesn't connect all that well with conservative voters, they don't buy him, and attacking Gingrich, while effective, won't cause a huge shift in support to him.
Rick Santorum did what he could again, laying out crisp, focused attacks on Romney and Gingrich for their past big government leanings on health care, the bailouts, etc. but at this point, it's Romney vs. Gingrich, reducing Santorum to a supporting role alongside Ron Paul.
I doubt this debate causes any major shifts in polling like we saw in South Carolina last week. Gingrich and Romney's numbers will probably pull together a bit closer in Florida in the coming days and the main issues should be what plays out on the trail for the rest of this week, particularly Romney's 13.9% tax rate and Gingrich's Freddie Mac ties which is back in the spotlight now. How the two candidates handle those issues, and who handles their issue better, will probably win next Tuesday.
Newt Gingrich pulled off a strong double digit win in South Carolina today, stronger than most expected, beating expectations and reviving a campaign that looked to be dead a week ago. It is amazing that two strong debate performances by Gingrich and Romney fumbled over tax returns was all it took for Romney's support to erode. Beyond his 25% base, Romney really struggles in states with a lot of conservative voters. They just aren't that into the guy, period.
And as I said after the debate on Thursday, Newt owes a huge thank you to John King for pitching him a hanging pitch right over the plate that he proceeded to belt out of the park. That moment had as much to do with Gingrich's huge win today as anything else.
Here are my main takeaways from tonight's result and what it means going forward...
* Mitt Romney did not handle attacks well. For the first time in this competition, Romney faced a series of consistent, aggressive attacks, and he crumbled under them. He went from a double digit lead in SC to a double digit loss in a matter of 10 days. He is going to have to rebound from this quickly, because the longer this race goes on, the less likely it is that he will be the nominee. This past week has said a lot about how Romney would potentially handle the type of consistent, focused attacks he'd face from Obama -- not well.
* Gingrich can now lay claim to winning the most populated state of the primaries thus far. Iowa is very small and a caucus at that, and New Hampshire is a small, moderate state with a lot of independents. Gingrich will make it known that the first true conservative state with a large population, he dominated Romney.
* Romney has a major issue on his hands with his tax returns and he will need to resolve it soon so it doesn't stay an issue in Florida.
* The winner of Florida will probably be the nominee.
* Gingrich is going to ride a huge wave of momentum in Florida and nationally that will see him get a huge boost in the polls. We saw this in December though and he blew it. Can he keep from saying idiotic statements and making big promises he can't back up? Newt's speaking ability in debates has helped him, but his speaking not he trail has mostly gotten him in trouble. He's gotten a second chance now and a second surge in support and will have to be more disciplined this time around.
* Don't be surprised to see the first batch of post-SC polls show Gingrich surging to the lead there. Keep in mind that before his Iowa free fall, Gingrich had double digit leads in all the Florida polls. Now that he has that same support back, expect the same type of poll results.
* What Rick Santorum does in the next week will be key. If he drops out, Romney is in major trouble. If he stays in, he will continue to siphon votes off of Gingrich in Florida. No doubt that Gingrich will try to talk Santorum into dropping out this week, as he did Perry, but with Santorum having a win under his belt in Iowa, I'd be surprised if he does. Santorum, indirectly, is Romney's #1 ally right now. And the fact is, he actually did better than expected in SC, topping Ron Paul for third.
* Romney has not really attacked any of his rivals in a major way directly thus far, mostly relying on Super PACs to do the dirty work for him. That won't cut it now. He now has a real rival on his hands and will have to get his hands dirty in the build-up to Florida. Acting like the presumptive nominee doesn't work when you go 1 for 3 in the first three states. His concession speech tonight was boring, dull, and didn't even go after Gingrich much by name on anything new. He will have to get aggressive directly. Only problem for Romney, as we saw in 2008 and as we've gotten a few reminders of this time around, he comes off pretty badly when on the attack. On the other hand, the Romney campaign has a huge opposition research file on Gingrich -- it's now time to see what line of attack they decide to go with, how Newt handles it, and if it will work.
* Gingrich has to be ready for the onslaught that is going to come from Romney and his Super PACs. This is going to get very dirty. Gingrich handled attacks pretty much as badly as you can handle them in Iowa. He has another shot at it now, and better have his counter attacks ready and his guns loaded.
* Gingrich is also going to once again face an onslaught of attacks from the GOP establishment. We saw this in Iowa when he got a big lead, and we'll see it again. Don't be surprised to see the likes of Jeb Bush come out and endorse Romney in Florida, and a lot of other big name GOPers siding with Romney. The party's establishment does not want Gingrich anywhere close to the nomination.
* Ron Paul's disappointing last place finish ends his streak of over performing polls, but it doesn't really matter since he plans to stay in until the end regardless.
So we now have a race on our hands. Romney has managed to blow what looked like an all-but-wrapped-up nomination. Florida should get very dirty, very fast. Should be interesting.
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