411 Politics Fact or Fiction: Week 127 - Sotomayor, Obama VS N Korea, Gay Marriage and Colin Powell VS GOP

Posted by Mark Radulich on 05.29.2009

Fact or Fiction is back baby!

Howdy dear readers and leaders : )

I've decided to stop writing my own dedicated columns for now and have instead taken up the mantle of hosting Fact of Fiction right here on the 411Mania Political Zone. I'm hoping that my personal philosophy of "It's OK to disagree" will spark intelligent debate as well adding some points of view that have not already been discussed in other outlets.

If you've read any of my previous columns you know that I'm fairly conservative when it comes to policy though (remember I am social worker) I do hold some traditionally liberal ideas. Having said that, my goal here is to write statements that are both provocative and thoughtful. They should generate both discussion and debate. Though I am also prepared to be told on an ongoing basis that I am an EPIC FAILURE as this is 411 and that's just how some of you role : )

Brandon Crow warned me that the hardest part of this job is getting participates to actually commit to doing a ForF when they say they will so I've gone ahead and prepared my go-to political commentators from my personal life for those times when I don't have participants from you readers or other 411 Commentators.

The first of my designated hitters is my very own father, Christopher Radulich. He's a libertarian gone Bush-hating-liberal, history buff, militant atheist, amateur golf enthusiast and a self proclaimed majority of one.
In the other corner is Chris McQuiggin, a 22 yr old graduate in Politics from the U.K.

And now, as Apollo Creed said to Rocky Balboa in Rocky III

…Ding Ding!

1) Despite not having enough votes to stop it, the Republicans will try anyway to stop (or Bork as it is called) the confirmation of Sonia Sotomayor as new Supreme Court judge‎.

Chris McQuiggin: Fiction. Although I am sure that a significant portion of the Republican party will be unhappy with Sotomayor, the risks of attempting a filibuster or trying to "Bork" her ratification are too great. The Hispanic's are the fasting growing voter demographic, and are one that the Republicans are keen to court. Democrats control 59 (1 pending) seats in the Senate, so it should only take a few Republicans to see her ratified successfully. The campaign to deny Bork a seat on the court was mainly filled with borderline slanderous comments about his record so hopefully the Republicans will not sink to that level, and the Court will again regain a slightly more balanced appearance. One wildcard could be Sotomayors position on Roe vs Wade. Conservatives who are eager to try and overturn that ruling will be disappointed, but will have to accept that no Obama pick would ever represent a "pro-life" viewpoint.

Christopher Radulich: Fiction. While the conservative media will scream for blood, as it makes for ratings, the senators will make their points and then confirm. Her record is not liberal enough to overcome the damage to their standing in the Latino community if they attempt to filibuster her. They already suffer in that community from their stand on immigration reform. McCain who supported immigration reform got 35% of the Latino vote. In one senate race the democratic candidate had 64% of the Latino vote to 21% for his republican opponent . Since republican senators do not have enough votes to deny her and do not have a death wish, they will confirm her.

And the first one goes 1 for 1! See here's where I'm coming from with this statement: I think that the GOP will use this as a fund raising opportunity as well as an opportunity to define themselves as the party of strict constitutionalism as opposed to belief that liberal judges make policy from the bench. You see, it's not about stopping her, it's about marketing and the simple act of trying to stop her gives them a marketing bonanza, in theory.

2) "The Republican Party is in deep trouble," Powell told corporate security executives at a conference in Washington sponsored by Fortify Software Inc. The party must realize that the country has changed, he said. "Americans do want to pay taxes for services," he said."Americans are looking for more government in their life, not less."

It is due to statements like this in addition to endorsing President Obama that make Colin Powell a poor spokesperson for the Republican Party.

Chris McQuiggin Disillusioned: Fiction. Powell is a poor spokesperson for one wing of the Republican Party, but people are quick to think of the GOP as a monolithic block of Christian Right evangelicals. Powell speaks for the people that are disillusioned with the way some of the party has shifted to an almost unelectable right wing position. Powell is a rare minority face in the Republican Party, and as a prominent Moderate figure, his position is needed in the Party. Under Reagan the GOP was a 'big tent' party, and if some have their way, that tent is getting smaller and smaller. The Republican Party needs as much support as possible and it will not achieve that by ostracizing pragmatic, realist moderates like Powell

Christopher Radulich: Mostly fact. He is a poor spokesman because he does not represents the majority of the Republican Party. The party over the last eight years has shrunk to a very small base. They made a conscious decision years ago to pursue a southern strategy which was basically a strategy of fear mongering. What they forgot was that America was changing. So as they alienated more groups their base shrunk. As more people moved south, their base got watered down.

They also traded in the myth of government is bad. Americans have always been of two minds about government. On one hand they always say that they want to cut it. However, when you ask what specific programs they would cut, the answer is always they want more of the programs. A prime example is the military. We scream that we want a strong military and that we support it. We just don't want to pay for it.
Due to the above the republicans have become irrational and lost the ability to govern when they became the majority during the nineties. Powell represents a group that understands that we need government and need to pay for it. The only part of the statement that may be fiction is that we are willing to pay for it.

1 for 2 and we have our first mild disagreement. Personally, most Republicans don't seem to want to pay for anything related to social programs because they deem most of them as failures. This above all else sets Powell apart from his party.

AND NOW WE DANCE…I mean SWITCH!

3.) Barack Obama is a do-nothing in the realm of foreign policy and this latest incident where we are entirely dependent on China to help with regards to the latest provocation by North Korea is just another example of this.

Christopher Radulich: Fiction. Not sure that six months into a new term that one can really answer that, especially with all the national issues being handled. Given the grievous state that Bush left him in he has done pretty well in the few chances he has had. Of course, with our friends, just not being Bush was a tremendous help. Yes I know that he did not get much at the economic summit. Diplomacy takes time.
As for N. Korea, we have no leverage. We can not even embargo since we have no trade with them. As long as China supports them we are basically helpless unless we want to go to economic war with China. Since N. korea cares nothing about their people, the only leverage drives from what the ruling body thinks they need for survival. Bush taught them that they need a nuclear weapon to ensure that the US does not attack them. i do not believe that even assurances from us that we will not attack them will help. So, it comes down to China. They know they can not stay in power if China goes against them. We need to work with China to accomplish our ends.

Chris McQuiggin: Fiction. America is not the world's superpower anymore and I think President Obama acknowledges and understands this. China and India are taking emerging steps into World politics, and this is an example of declining American hegemony. North Korea's provocative stance is one that will cause headaches for Obama, and although he is vastly inexperienced in Foreign Policy he still has various experienced heads around him from both parties such as Joe Biden and Robert Gates. As Chris states, China have the power to bring Korea to heel, and the U.S. must work with Beijing to bring North Korea back in line. North Korea is currently not party to the Non-Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and as a result should be ostracized from the international community. Those criticizing Obama for not taking swift action are contributing to the climate of immediate action politics, and might worrying led the U.S. into conflict again unnecessarily.

That is not to say the situation in North Korea isn't urgent. North Korean missiles are believed to have been sold to nations such as Iran and Syria, and it is imperative that the U.S. uses a new relationship with China to put enough pressure on Pyongyang to cease its provocative actions.

2 for 3…maybe we should just outsource our military might to China <---that was sarcasm

4.) The Gay Marriage Ban in California was upheld and the issue was not allowed to go before the Supreme Court. This event has dramatically delayed the progress of the Gay Rights agenda.

Christopher Radulich: Fiction. From today's paper (5/26/09) "Two of the nation's top litigators who opposed each other in the Bush v. Gore election challenge in 2000 have joined forces to seek federal court intervention in California's gay marriage controversy.

Theodore B. Olson and David Boies have filed a U.S. District Court lawsuit on behalf of two gay men and two gay women, arguing that the California constitutional amendment eliminating the right of gay couples to marry violates the U.S. constitutional guarantee of equal protection and due process.

Olson said today that he hopes the case will wind up before the U.S. Supreme Court.

The lawsuit seeks a preliminary injunction against California's Proposition 8 until the case is resolved."

Given that I have no idea why the question says that it is not allowed to go before the Supreme Court.

Editors note: At the time of the formation of the above statement, my understanding was that it had been blocked from going before the Supreme Court and that new legislation and a whole no legal process would have to be crafted and mounted.

However I do not believe that it is a major set back. The tide has definitely turned and it is inevitable that all states will eventually recognize same sex marriages. I did like one idea that has come forth.

States should get out of the marriage business. Instead they should only issue licenses for civil union and let marriages be a religious rite. The civil unions would have all they same civil privileges that marriages provide and the only thing that marriage would provide is religious recognition.

I do have one question. If California passed a constitutional amendment that said that all Catholics, Jews, Hispanics, or Mormans could not marry, would all those conservatives cheering today's ruling be happy? If not what is the difference?

Chris McQuiggin: Fact. As a British citizen, I am not especially knowledgeable in this case, but am familiar with Proposition 8. The fact that the bill was voted in raises concern, and the fact that it has been upheld is a blow for the Gay Lobby. As Mr Radulich points out, the case was a ruling on constitution change so there remains hope the case with goes to the Supreme Court. The mere negative publicity this will create is a setback, but there is chance the ruling with galvanise the Gay Rights agenda.
In Britain, we have a relatively liberal attitude to Gay Rights, so it is hard to imagine a situation similar here.

and the final score is 2 for 4!

Thanks to both my Pappy Christopher Radulich and Chris McQuiggin for participating. If you would like to join in and play along too email me [e-mail] or leave your email address in a comment and I'll contact you.