Nuclear Iran and the Multi-Polar World

Posted by Mark Radulich on 08.23.2010

A look at world as it is today through the events in Iran...



What is worth going to nuclear war over? That used to be a question that only the US and the Soviet Union had to answer. They were the lone superpowers with nuclear weapons in what was once a bi-polar world in the wake of World War II. However, 65 years have passed and in that time the world has become a much different place. Despite "winning" the Cold War, the US has found itself not the undisputed leader of a single pole world but rather one of many poles in the new multi-polar world. Between those on the left that wanted equally shared power throughout the world with no one nation leading the pack and those on the right that wanted unfettered free trade and globalization, both have gotten their wish. The United States as a superpower, both militarily and financially is an artifact of the 20th Century. We are now part of a one-world-nation, whether we like it or not.

And clearly we as a country are not ready for the repercussions of global singularity. Since the 2008 economic correction I've seen countless promises of a return to pre-meltdown financial status and manufacturing superiority. I've seen the average American cry out for a solution to "fix" the economy. Countless entertainers on the radio clamor for, "tax cuts to stimulate the economy" while the current presidential administration leverages the country to the hilt in order to "create jobs" for the working class. There's this ever-fleeting degree of hope that somehow America will return to the boom years of the 1950's and we'll resume our role as the financial leader of the modern world. That's the rub right there; the world has changed considerably since the end of World War II. The very nature of free trade, global markets, interconnected economies and nuclear proliferation means we are not alone in the world any longer. At best, we're a large state in a global country and our neighbors are China, India, Russia, Brazil and the European Union.



It is this interconnectedness that makes the recent news about Iran firing up its Bushehr Nuclear Plant so poignant. The Iranians have tried to get the Bushehr facility built and running since 1974 when they first contracted with the German company Siemens. The plant was only partially built when it was bombed by Iraq during the their war in the 80's. They've had deals with Spain and Argentina as well as a host of other countries but all of those deals were cancelled due to U.S. pressure. Eventually Russia stepped into the picture to finish building the plant but that was in 1995. In addition to this project taking an almost prohibitively long time to finish, Iran has also had to contend with years of sanctions as well as threats by the Israeli's that Iranian nuclear power plants would be bombed if they ever became operational. Lastly, for years the U.S. policy has been that it is in the best interest of the world to prevent Iran from acquiring any and all nuclear equipment, technologies, and know-how, including those necessary for the peaceful use of nuclear energy in an effort to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons. But despite the tough talk of the Bush years and the soft diplomacy of the Obama administration, on August 21, 2010 Iran began the process of firing up the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant.



Prior to this event former U.S. envoy to the United Nations John Bolton told the Israeli's and the world via Fox News that if Israel was going to launch an attack on Bushehr, it needed to do it before the 21st, lest they risk radioactive fallout from blowing up a live nuclear reactor. There were indicators that this was a possibility as the Saudi's had given Israel permission to fly over their country in the event they planned to actually attack Iran. But the week passed and there was no assault. No Osirak-like mission was to be had. In fact, not only did Iran begin to bring Bushehr online but also days later they even debuted an unmanned attack drone and announced plans for the mass production of high-speed missile-launching assault boats. So the question is, why didn't the Israeli's make good on a decade of threats and blow the place up? More to the point, what more could the United States have done to prevent this event from occurring? The answers lies in the political-economic structure of the multi-polar world we are now living in.



The first and easiest to understand reason why the Israeli's didn't attack Bushehr is that the US deemed it not to be a proliferation risk. In short, if the rationale for bombing it was to prevent weapons from being made there, then there was no reason to bomb it in the first place. U.S. State Department spokesman Darby Holladay stated that since Russia had agreed to supply nuclear fuel and remove spent fuel rods; there was minimal risk the plant would be used to make nuclear weapons. In addition, if we've learned anything from the recent adventure in Iraq it's that the world has neither little stomach nor patience for preemptive war. Had Israel attacked Bushehr they would have lost the war before the battle had even begun in the court of world opinion, such is the multi-polar world.

When the Israeli's bombed Osirak they didn't bother to even warn the US, and frankly given the world of the early 80's, they didn't have to. The dominoes that fell after they hit Iraq didn't register on the radar of the superpower that was the US. As I stated earlier, the times they have a-changed. With countries scattered across the globe armed with intercontinental ballistic missiles it behooves every serious country to at best, tread lightly. It is one thing when only two countries have nuclear weapons and neither are particularly invested in your best interest and quite another when a number of countries have nuclear weapons and have a vested interest in your survival. Attacking Iran leads to military conflict with China, Russia and at least a third of Latin America, not to mention most of the Middle East as they are all tied together both militarily and financially. Despite some of the crazy rhetoric we hear on cable news and even from the mouths of certain leaders across the world, war isn't something anyone is really interested in and therefore there's only so much any one country can do when another opts to flout international concerns. In a game of carrot and stick, we've buried the stick and hope that lots of carrots work. Of course, in a situation like this once you've run out of carrots and there is no stick to use, you are forced to just live with it and that's a reality for both the US and Israel.

Besides war, both nuclear and conventional, the US also has to contend with the economic realities of the multi-polar world. The US and China are the two biggest economies in the world. China, as of June 2010, holds roughly $843.7 billion in US treasury securities. The U.S. trade deficit with China widened to $26.2 billion in June, the highest since October 2008, as imports from there jumped according to the Commerce Department earlier this month. Now, if either the US or China, for example, opted to do something of a "cowboy-like" nature like bomb Iran or invade Taiwan, the economic repercussions to both countries would be far worse and much faster than anything else besides nuclear oblivion. And you can make this case the world over with the EU, Russia, Latin America, etc. Once Bill Clinton and the Republican congress started us down the free trade path they left the proverbial barn door open and there's no closing it now. We're not going to embargo China or any country that really matters because doing so will only hurt us in the long run. Sure in the short run manufacturing will briefly return but sooner or later markets become saturated and we're right back to where we are now, global interconnected markets. Despite the assertions of boisterous radio personalities, there are in fact limits to growth whether you're global or isolated. Negligible economic progress will probably occur but for the most part, this is indeed the New Normal.

So what more could the Obama Administration have done to prevent Bushehr from coming online? The answer is simply nothing. That answer doesn't change if or when a Republican becomes president. The latest episode with Iran shows us that the US is more or less impotent. We're not alone in that respect because quite frankly so is the rest of the sane, civilized world. Military action isn't a viable option; trade wars, sanctions, embargoes, etc. aren't a viable option either. Essentially a multi-polar world with every country seated at the round table means that for the most part, we're all locked into an eternal state of check, with no checkmate in sight. Mutually Assured Destruction for everybody and nobody. Welcome to the real New World Order.