New Hampshire Votes Today, Keep An Eye On How Much Romney Wins By

Posted by Ashish on 01.10.2012

Romney's margin of victory will be the story...

Few things to watch for in New Hampshire today...

* Mitt Romney will win, but expectations are that he will win big, setting up a dangerous situation of expectations that are so high that even a solid win will be viewed as a disappointment. If he ends up winning by less than 10%, it's going to be viewed negatively and send him to South Carolina in a very vulnerable position.
* If Romney does end up underperforming, the media will instantly credit the Bain attacks which basically started on Monday, as well as Romney not holding up to the more aggressive attacks he's faced from all his rivals over the past two days. It will also be legitimate evidence that the Bain line of attack does work. Keep in mind that Ted Kennedy used the Bain attacks on Romney in their 1994 Senate battle to great success.
* New Hampshire has a history of not turning out how polls predict. People there consistently lie to pollsters and often are unpredictable in how they vote. It's why Obama had a huge lead in the polls going into the primary in 2008, only to suffer a stunning loss to Hilary Clinton.
* Over 40% say they have not firmly decided on a candidate, indicating a lot of soft support all around.
* Jon Huntsman has had a lot of momentum on the ground after his debate performance on Sunday. I'd expect him and Ron Paul to both over perform poll numbers.
* Santorum, Gingrich, and Perry aren't really all that concerned with the state and will probably finish 4th, 5th, and 6th respectively. They're betting it all on South Carolina.

I'm predicting a Romney win, but with a vulnerable margin of around 10%-12%, with Ron Paul and Huntsman in a close battle for second with both around 20%.