GOP Debate Thoughts: Newt Comes Back To Life A Little Too Late

Posted by Ashish on 01.16.2012

Not much to stop Romney...

Monday night's debate featured Newt Gingrich showing some signs of life and dishing out the type of red meat applause lines that made him the frontrunner not too long ago. The problem for him is that it's a bit too late in the game for it now. Nobody landed a knockout-quality punch against Mitt Romney tonight, even though he took a few blows and looked uncomfortable several times.

Other notes:

* Gingrich probably did well enough tonight to get a bump in the South Carolina polls, but with Rick Perry also pandering to South Carolina's very conservative Republican primary voters all night, and Rick Santorum still going after the same group, the two are siphoning off their share of that far-right/Tea Party group that Gingrich would need to beat Romney.

* Romney came off pretty badly on the stuff over Super PACs, oozing hypocrisy while dancing around the issue and hiding behind legalities that are easy to get beyond (if Romney wanted the ads in question off the air, they'd be off the air, period). But still, Super PACs aren't going to be the issue that turns this campaign around for Gingrich or Santorum. This Super PACs issue, particularly that Romney now has his business record being called into question by Gingrich and his morals and honesty being called into question by Santorum, is a story that will extend to the general election. The Obama campaign will make Romney's private equity career and his honesty/flip-flops into issues, and they have footage of Gingrich, Santorum, and Perry, three prominent Republicans, siding with them.

* Perry, like Gingrich, has learned to pander and throw out red meat to his audience, and that made his debate performance a solid one, but on substance, the guy remains pretty shockingly ignorant for a Presidential candidate.

* I felt sorry for Ron Paul several times, as he had to lecture the audience on several topics where, based on what they applauded for, they were severely misinformed. But he's been having to do that for years now. I expect Paul to finish third in South Carolina and I don't think anything tonight changed that.

* Romney showed a lot of the flaws that the Obama campaign will target in the general election, mainly his inability to stay cool when under attack. We saw Perry do it several times back when he was the frontrunner, and we've seen it every time a candidate goes after Romney on stage in any serious way -- he suddenly gets very agitated and visibly frustrated. We saw it tonight. He'll have to work on that before he debates President Obama, who aside from being a strong debater, is known for his ability to attack in debates without coming off as angry or as an "attacker."

In many ways, Romney has been done an injustice by his competition in that he is getting ready to go into a general election that his primary opponents have not readied him for. They waited until he already is in dominating position to attack him, mostly laid off of him at debates, and rarely follow up attacks in a consistent way to force Romney into uncomfortable positions. The Obama campaign, as we saw against Hilary Clinton and John McMahon, will go after Romney in a very aggressive way. Romney will also have to work on his somewhat aloof/pompous demeanor, an example being how he completely brushed off the question on releasing his tax returns by simply saying he will "probably" release them later. You can do that type of stuff in a primary that you already have wrapped up. In the general election, he'll have to get a lot more specific and concrete on things.

Overall though, this debate didn't change the trajectory of the race. It will take Romney making a major mistake at this point to screw up his path to the nomination. If Gingrich was as aggressive and fiery in Iowa after the attacks against him started as he was tonight, we may have had a real race. Instead, it's coming far too late.