Gingrich Dominates SC, Romney Suddenly Looking Very Vulnerable

Posted by Ashish on 01.21.2012

Full analysis of what Gingrich's win means going forward...

Newt Gingrich pulled off a strong double digit win in South Carolina today, stronger than most expected, beating expectations and reviving a campaign that looked to be dead a week ago. It is amazing that two strong debate performances by Gingrich and Romney fumbled over tax returns was all it took for Romney's support to erode. Beyond his 25% base, Romney really struggles in states with a lot of conservative voters. They just aren't that into the guy, period.

And as I said after the debate on Thursday, Newt owes a huge thank you to John King for pitching him a hanging pitch right over the plate that he proceeded to belt out of the park. That moment had as much to do with Gingrich's huge win today as anything else.

Here are my main takeaways from tonight's result and what it means going forward...

* Mitt Romney did not handle attacks well. For the first time in this competition, Romney faced a series of consistent, aggressive attacks, and he crumbled under them. He went from a double digit lead in SC to a double digit loss in a matter of 10 days. He is going to have to rebound from this quickly, because the longer this race goes on, the less likely it is that he will be the nominee. This past week has said a lot about how Romney would potentially handle the type of consistent, focused attacks he'd face from Obama -- not well.

* Gingrich can now lay claim to winning the most populated state of the primaries thus far. Iowa is very small and a caucus at that, and New Hampshire is a small, moderate state with a lot of independents. Gingrich will make it known that the first true conservative state with a large population, he dominated Romney.

* Romney has a major issue on his hands with his tax returns and he will need to resolve it soon so it doesn't stay an issue in Florida.

* The winner of Florida will probably be the nominee.

* Gingrich is going to ride a huge wave of momentum in Florida and nationally that will see him get a huge boost in the polls. We saw this in December though and he blew it. Can he keep from saying idiotic statements and making big promises he can't back up? Newt's speaking ability in debates has helped him, but his speaking not he trail has mostly gotten him in trouble. He's gotten a second chance now and a second surge in support and will have to be more disciplined this time around.

* Don't be surprised to see the first batch of post-SC polls show Gingrich surging to the lead there. Keep in mind that before his Iowa free fall, Gingrich had double digit leads in all the Florida polls. Now that he has that same support back, expect the same type of poll results.

* What Rick Santorum does in the next week will be key. If he drops out, Romney is in major trouble. If he stays in, he will continue to siphon votes off of Gingrich in Florida. No doubt that Gingrich will try to talk Santorum into dropping out this week, as he did Perry, but with Santorum having a win under his belt in Iowa, I'd be surprised if he does. Santorum, indirectly, is Romney's #1 ally right now. And the fact is, he actually did better than expected in SC, topping Ron Paul for third.

* Romney has not really attacked any of his rivals in a major way directly thus far, mostly relying on Super PACs to do the dirty work for him. That won't cut it now. He now has a real rival on his hands and will have to get his hands dirty in the build-up to Florida. Acting like the presumptive nominee doesn't work when you go 1 for 3 in the first three states. His concession speech tonight was boring, dull, and didn't even go after Gingrich much by name on anything new. He will have to get aggressive directly. Only problem for Romney, as we saw in 2008 and as we've gotten a few reminders of this time around, he comes off pretty badly when on the attack. On the other hand, the Romney campaign has a huge opposition research file on Gingrich -- it's now time to see what line of attack they decide to go with, how Newt handles it, and if it will work.

* Gingrich has to be ready for the onslaught that is going to come from Romney and his Super PACs. This is going to get very dirty. Gingrich handled attacks pretty much as badly as you can handle them in Iowa. He has another shot at it now, and better have his counter attacks ready and his guns loaded.

* Gingrich is also going to once again face an onslaught of attacks from the GOP establishment. We saw this in Iowa when he got a big lead, and we'll see it again. Don't be surprised to see the likes of Jeb Bush come out and endorse Romney in Florida, and a lot of other big name GOPers siding with Romney. The party's establishment does not want Gingrich anywhere close to the nomination.

* Ron Paul's disappointing last place finish ends his streak of over performing polls, but it doesn't really matter since he plans to stay in until the end regardless.

So we now have a race on our hands. Romney has managed to blow what looked like an all-but-wrapped-up nomination. Florida should get very dirty, very fast. Should be interesting.