GOP Debate Thoughts: Romney Comes Back Firing, Gingrich Stays Calm

Posted by Ashish on 01.24.2012

Mellow Newt?

Mitt Romney showed some life and, dare I say, even some fire at last night's GOP debate. He threw bomb after bomb at Newt Gingrich, who clearly came into the night with the mindset that he wasn't going to get baited into an argument. He stayed calm, but it cost him. Gingrich has surged again in the polls and leads in Florida again because GOP primary voters respond to his anger and his provocative debate performances. He tried scaling things back and playing safe in Iowa too after he became the frontrunner, and we saw how that turned out. He did that again tonight, going into a prevent defense and losing the fire and bravado that has gotten him to the top of the pack again. Newt, when he is angry, bold, and unapologetic, taps into the mood of the Republican party right now better than any candidate left in the field. But that Newt didn't show up tonight. Instead, Newt tried to play the frontrunner role, mostly passing on chances to take the gloves off against Romney, even letting Romney's classic "self-deportation" remark go by without ridiculing it. Gingrich was smart enough though to stand up for Medicare, a clear grab at Florida's large number of senior citizen voters.

But this was not the hellfire Gingrich we saw last week in South Carolina. I get that Gingrich wanted to try and remain poised, there is something to say for not getting baited into arguments, but he does not have this race won, he just got back into it. Now is not the time to play it safe, particularly when Romney attacked him as relentlessly as he did during the first 30 minutes of the debate. Gingrich probably really got under Romney's skin by not taking the bait, since he was obviously trying to get Newt to lose it and say something stupid, but he should have shown a little more passion and fight. We have seen over and over again how tepid support is and how quickly it shifts this year. One day you're up, and one wrong move later, you're in a free fall. Newt played the frontrunner role tonight, but he's better off when he's trying to own the stage.

And for all the criticisms that Romney has had his Super PACs do all his dirty work, he came out with clear, focused attacks on Gingrich and he did not back down at all when Gingrich questioned his honesty. He also did a bit better with the tax return issue (though now that it's out that he paid a 13.9% tax rate, the issue may get even bigger -- and wow what a gift to Obama if Romney is his opponent, he now has his perfect foil for the tax inequality/the game is rigged for the rich argument that he wants to make the main message of the election). Romney's problem remains though that his message just doesn't connect all that well with conservative voters, they don't buy him, and attacking Gingrich, while effective, won't cause a huge shift in support to him.

Rick Santorum did what he could again, laying out crisp, focused attacks on Romney and Gingrich for their past big government leanings on health care, the bailouts, etc. but at this point, it's Romney vs. Gingrich, reducing Santorum to a supporting role alongside Ron Paul.

I doubt this debate causes any major shifts in polling like we saw in South Carolina last week. Gingrich and Romney's numbers will probably pull together a bit closer in Florida in the coming days and the main issues should be what plays out on the trail for the rest of this week, particularly Romney's 13.9% tax rate and Gingrich's Freddie Mac ties which is back in the spotlight now. How the two candidates handle those issues, and who handles their issue better, will probably win next Tuesday.