Romney Blows Out Gingrich In FL -- Money Matters, Negative Ads Work

Posted by Ashish on 01.31.2012

Analysis of where the race goes from here...

Mitt Romney basically whooped Newt Gingrich in Florida tonight, a fresh reminder of how much money and negative ads matter. Romney outspent Gingrich 5-to-1 in the state, dropping about $17 million in the state, mostly on negative ads. He also was much more aggressive and campaigned/debated with some fire behind him. It all worked.

Gingrich is vowing to stay in the race at this point, although you have to wonder where he turns this around. Yes, this has been an unusually fluid Republican primary electorate and yes, Gingrich has been pronounced dead before only to come back, but Gingrich has fundamental issues outside of Southern states. He is getting slaughtered among women, evidence that his ex-wife's charges HAVE hurt him, he has a huge money disadvantage, he isn't on the ballot in several states, he has far less debates to cling to going forward, and his ground game is getting dwarfed by Romney everywhere. To stay relevant and not feed the growing media perception that this race is all but over, Gingrich will have to win somewhere before Super Tuesday. And even then, the question here is more can Gingrich stay in it until the convention and still get treated like a legitimate candidate. Winning the nomination seems unlikely for Gingrich at this point.

The reality is, Gingrich has two opponents -- Romney and the Republican party. He is also being bullied by Romney to the point where he seems to spend most of his time complaining about being attacked. He is going to have to develop a long-term strategy. He seems to just go from whim to whim while Romney follows through on an actual strategy.

Romney's campaign continues to be stronger than the candidate, a lesson the Obama campaign I'm sure has taken note of. Romney's campaign is extremely organized, focused, and relentless, making up for a lot of the flaws in Romney himself. When they decide to attack, they do so in a way that has, thus far, worked every time in the Republican primary. The question now is, does he go back to focusing on Obama or does he keep attacking Gingrich as to avoid letting him rise from the dead again. It's a tough decision because continued attacking of Gingrich will keep the party from unifying and keep Gingrich in the news, but will prevent further surprises in the primary contest. Focusing on Obama and trying to act above it could set up what we saw in South Carolina where people thought Romney was playing it safe.

Romney's loose use of facts in negative ads is something the Obama campaign will need to be ready for. As Gingrich is learning the hard way, Romney seems pretty comfortable with borderline and even outright lies about his opponent in his ads. Of course, he won't be able to outspend Obama in the media war, so getting away with those types of ads will be more difficult. Against Gingrich, they've been very effective because, again, Romney is outspending Gingrich dramatically. Over attacking and use of negative ads can backfire though, something Romney will need to keep in mind going into the general against a much tougher opponent in Obama.

Overall, Romney was at his best in Florida. He was aggressive and came off like a candidate with something to prove, a major contrast to how he came off before. The result -- a commanding win in Florida, the biggest state yet of the primary. The nomination is once again Romney's to lose.

* Ron Paul was last. He'll do better in the smaller caucus states.