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 411mania » Politics »
New Swing State Polls: FL, OH, VA, CO, NH -- Is Obama Still Up?
Posted by Ashish on 09.13.2012



IMPORTANT NOTE: 411mania.com will be launching a new look in the near future, at which point the Politics section will come to an end (we've decided it's best to not have politics discussed on an entertainment site like 411). That being said, my political strategy articles will continue at NoWeCantPolitics.com. So if you'd like to continue reading my thoughts and analysis on the road to the 2012 election, please bookmark NoWeCantPolitics.com where I'll have exclusive daily strategy articles, polling analysis, and more.

Several new swing state polls have come in, and the numbers continue to be good for Obama. Here are all the latest swing state polls out today.

* Ohio (NBC/Marist): Obama 50%, Romney 43%
* Ohio (Rasmussen): Obama 47%, Romney 46%
* Florida (NBC/Marist): Obama 49%, Romney 44%
* Florida (Rasmussen): Obama 48%, Romney 46%
* Virginia (NBC/Marist): Obama 49%, Romney 44%
* Colorado (Project New America): Obama 49%, Romney 44%
* New Hampshire (WMUR/UNH): Obama 45%, Romney 40%

While the Rush Limbaughs of the world continue to try and ignore reality and rant about bizarre things like polling conspiracies, there is no dancing around the facts -- all pollsters (including Fox News and Rasmussen) show Obama has leads both nationally and in the key swing states. NBC/Marist has a slight Democratic lean in their polls, Rasmussen has a slight Republican lean. Average it all together and you have what appears to be 3-5% leads for Obama in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado. Romney would need to win three of those states to have a realistic path to 270 electoral votes, Obama probably only needs two to get to 270. Obama currently has a comfortable lead in the electoral college. When you average all state polls together (courtesy of Real Clear Politics), Obama leads 332 to 206. The 538 electoral college model, which uses all polls, economic data, and other data in a statistical model designed to project the electoral college winner, has it Obama 315, Romney 223.

The good news for Romney is he is still close enough to come back. But ignoring the data and the reality of the situation and trying to emphasize your opponent's strongest area -- foreign policy -- in an election that will be decided by the economy is not wise. Libya is not going to move middle class, blue-collar votes in Ohio. Or Hispanic votes in Colorado. It is painfully obvious if you've seen Romney try to answer questions on foreign policy this week that he is not comfortable talking about it. The issue is not helping him. He tried to create a change moment, it was a swing and a miss, and he needs to move on (and it looks like he is, as he changed his rhetoric on the subject dramatically today, sounding much softer and not emphasizing it as much).

What Romney does need to do is move to the middle more than he has. He is going to have to do something to shave a sliver off of Obama's big leads among women, Hispanics, and blue-collar workers, and the only way to do that is to move more to the middle on women's rights, immigration reform, and worker rights while tailoring his message a bit more to the middle class. He has not been able to connect with these groups at all thus far. How he does that now in a believable way without his party turning on him is another story entirely. Nobody said it was easy to win a Presidential election.





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