Thursday Swing State Polls Analysis: VA, CO, NH, IA, NV, NC, WI
Posted by Ashish on 11.01.2012
Lots of new state polls all tell a similar story...
Another day of very bad state poll numbers for Romney today. His only path to victory at this point seems to be to hope that Rasmussen is right and that literally every other pollster is wrong. This was the same point John McCain was left in right before the 2008 election, as Rasmussen was the only pollster showing him having a shot. The result? Rasmussen was wrong, and everyone else was right. I'm not saying that is what is going to happen this time, but it's worth mentioning that we saw an identical situation in 2008 and saw how that turned out. It's certainly possible that all the polls except Rasmussen are wrong in their electorate turnout model, but that isn't the type of thing that happens very often.
Here are the numbers, followed by my analysis. I'm no longer listing the trends, as they don't really matter now. All that matters at this point is who is winning and who is losing.